They can just stick the non-exclusive franchise tag on him, which I think is worth about 33M fully guaranteed.
NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round
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5th straight AFC Championship and an upcoming 2nd MVP for Mahomes. I know people rage at this comparison, but he had about 3-4 plays in his first drive that would be on Brady's all-time highlight reel. He has a long way to go, but he has the most considerable equity in unseating Brady as the GOAT as anyone out there. I don't think he'll reach 7 rings, but 4-5 is within reach, and I don't think he would need to break all of Brady's longevity numbers to make this a debate. He does things on a football field that no one else has ever done and currently can do, plain and simple. And I think his longevity concerns are overrated, they showed this game they can make him bionic enough to stay on the field and do what he does.
He's going to be around for a very, very long time and Brady has given him the yardstick to do so. He lost Tyreek and didn't miss a beat, and when they lose Kelce they'll find another one. He gets everyone on the offense involved and makes everyone better, regardless of who is running or catching the ball, this is the hallmark of what makes Tom great - he does the exact same thing. Time will tell, but he's one of one.
He's going to be around for a very, very long time and Brady has given him the yardstick to do so. He lost Tyreek and didn't miss a beat, and when they lose Kelce they'll find another one. He gets everyone on the offense involved and makes everyone better, regardless of who is running or catching the ball, this is the hallmark of what makes Tom great - he does the exact same thing. Time will tell, but he's one of one.
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The Bills should be able to get good pressure on Burrows today with 3 starters out on the offensive line.
I don't really disagree with anything you are saying, but I think you are underselling even how hard 4-5 is. Brady broke everyone's brains in this regard. Maybe Mahomes WILL reach those heights. He is certainly an all time great QB. And the best way to win 4-5 rings is to be in the mix every year, which KC has been to your point about the 5 straight AFCCGs.
But so far, he only has one ring despite the previous 4 straight AFCCGs. If KC doesn't win this year, it's another year gone by. Andy Reid isn't getting any younger and I doubt he will stick around too much longer. Kind of a catch-22 in that regard because I think he may retire if he wins another title. I don't think we can undersell how good of a coach he is despite making fun of some of his time management snafus.
Russ Wilson was on the verge of his 2nd title with no end in sight, and he hasn't been back to a championship game since.
All this to say, let's not crown their ass quite yet.
Edit: also, Mahomes seems more injury prone than Brady. He's dinged up fairly often.
Mahomes' cap hit goes up (according to spotrac) to $46m next year. It will hit $59m in 2027, but of course they'll renegotiate before that. Either way, the point is that his number just gets higher and higher (as well it should - he's awesome), but it'll make it harder and harder for them to build the team around him. He's amazing, but he's not better than he was a few years ago. Same great player, but his cost just keeps going up.
What's amazing is that Kelce never seems to decline or get hurt. Dude is 33 and just keeps rolling along. Besides his rookie year (1 game), he's never played fewer than 15 games in a season. Imagine if Gronk had been able to stay healthy like that. He is the straw that stirs that drink (I mean, Mahomes is obviously the key but Kelce is his main weapon), and if he goes down, their team changes dramatically. They've had incredibly good injury luck with Kelce.
Kelce's contract, by the way, calls for cap hits like this:
2022 (33): 8.4m
2023 (34): 14.8m
2024 (35): 15.5m
2025 (36): 19.8m
It'll be interesting to see if KC wants to pay 36 year old Kelce nearly $20 million. I'm sure he'll still be a good player but yikes. Or they extend him, reduce his cap hit, but pay him into his 40s or something.
Mahomes’s contract is actually pretty good in terms of % of the team cap. 2027 is where it spikes to 19% (and will no doubt be restructured as you said); other years are ~15% and down to ~13% after 2027. Cap growth estimates are based on 7% yearly increase. Relative to the deals for Allen, Murray, what Jackson will get, etc, I think it’s one of the better mega QB contracts out there. You’re right on Kelce too, not sure how they will adjust his contract but hopefully he has at least two more productive years in him. The trick is the Chris Jones, Brown, and other ~$20M deals they will have to make, but I don’t see them as that different than any other team. If Veach can keep having productive drafts where he has a lot of playing time given to players on rookie deals, I think KC is well-positioned from a cap perspective.
Yeah, I'm not raging but that seems hyperbolic to the extreme and I like Mahomes but 3 or 4 plays in one drive that would be on the GOATs all time highlight reel? Are you talking strictly athletically? Because, okay...everyone knows that Mahomes is a different kind QB than Brady. Fields makes plays Brady can't as well.
If the Chiefs make 3 more straight AFC title games and win a few more Super Bowls, we can talk, because right now your Mahomes argument is what you *think* he *might* do. Let him do it first.
Burrow is really good at getting the ball out quick though and his receivers get great quick separation. I expect Cincy to be able to game plan around the OL issues as they have in the past.
Mahomes' first 6 seasons:
2017 - rookie and sat the bench
2018 - went to AFCCG and lost to Brady and the Pats
2019 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2020 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, lost to Brady and the Bucs
2021 - went to AFCCG, lost to Cincy
2022 - going to AFCCG
Brady's first 6 seasons:
2000 - rookie and sat the bench
2001 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2002 - missed playoffs
2003 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2004 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2005 - went to divisional round, lost to Denver
So both guys sat out one season. Then in their next five.... Mahomes went to 5 straight AFCCGs, and (so far) has gone to 2 SBs, winning one. Brady went to 3 AFCCGs, missed the playoffs once, but went to 3 SBs and won 3 SBs.
I'd say that winning 3 SBs trumps everything else, but what Mahomes has done has been pretty comparable to Brady when you look at their respective first six years in the NFL.
Still a LONG way to go to really have the kind of career Brady has had, obviously. But he's off to a blazing start, make no mistake.
2017 - rookie and sat the bench
2018 - went to AFCCG and lost to Brady and the Pats
2019 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2020 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, lost to Brady and the Bucs
2021 - went to AFCCG, lost to Cincy
2022 - going to AFCCG
Brady's first 6 seasons:
2000 - rookie and sat the bench
2001 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2002 - missed playoffs
2003 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2004 - went to AFCCG, went to SB, won SB
2005 - went to divisional round, lost to Denver
So both guys sat out one season. Then in their next five.... Mahomes went to 5 straight AFCCGs, and (so far) has gone to 2 SBs, winning one. Brady went to 3 AFCCGs, missed the playoffs once, but went to 3 SBs and won 3 SBs.
I'd say that winning 3 SBs trumps everything else, but what Mahomes has done has been pretty comparable to Brady when you look at their respective first six years in the NFL.
Still a LONG way to go to really have the kind of career Brady has had, obviously. But he's off to a blazing start, make no mistake.
Brady had the better team success, but are their individual stats really all that comparable? Mahomes has 69 more TD and over 6,000 passing yards through those first six seasons than Brady. Brady didn’t start putting up the video game numbers and winning the MVP until age 30. Mahomes has been doing it since the day he became a starter.
Mahomes is incredible. He's decisively better than all of the other QBs out there right now, and yeah, he's probably the only person playing now who even has a shot of competing with Brady for GOAT, but the odds of him continuing to play at a high enough level for long enough to be in the discussion are bad. He' already been hurt way more than Brady has, and he probably need to put up at least 10-13 more elite years to be in the conversation.
Possible, but not likely.
Possible, but not likely.
The game changed a lot I think starting around 2004 - I mean Brady led the league in passing TDs in 2002 with 28. Just a different game - tough to compare passing stats from like 2002 to 2022.
Edit - this article talks about it:
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/they-called-it-ty-law-rule-and-was-ok-him
Anyone will look mediocre compared to Brady. But KC went to ONE AFC championship since winning their first Super Bowl PRIOR TO Mahomes coming in. In that time he has taken that same franchise to 5 AFCCG’s and has a good chance of getting to a third Super Bowl (and winning a second title). He is an elite qb and I am enjoying him playing at this level, even if that level may not last as long as Brady’s
Where is Reid considered as an all time coach at this point? He’s light on Super Bowl wins, but the rest of the resume is tippy top tier. He’ll end up at least 4th all time in wins, and his winning percentage is also near the top and only improving the last few years.
He’s fascinating because he’s obviously very good, but has done a lot of playoff losing when his team was better.
He is awesome. I root against him every chance I get, but there’s no denying his greatness. In terms of all time greatness, he relies on some split second elusive moves within the pocket that will be hard to maintain into his mid thirties. He had that weird knee cap injury and his legs have always looked a bit knock-kneed or something. One of Brady’s truly elite skills is to make his movements as efficient as possible and avoid big hits and undue stress on his body. Mahomes will have to refine that skill set to stick around nearly as long.
Yes, I agree Mahomes needs to get more rings, but one thing that is not comparable is how much worse KC’s defenses have been in Mahomes’s tenure. He HAS to put up at least 30 every game.
This game is destined to be muted. Romo has quickly achieved similar annoying levels.
Romo seemed to tone it down all year until the Buffalo / Pats game after the injury game. Since then he hasn't shut up.
I have him very high if he wins another SB. The only guys I have watched that I would take over him if he wins another are Walsh, Gibbs, BB. Pains me to say it but I think I have to take him over Parcells.
Has to be behind Shula and Lombardi I imagine. Tough for me to rate guys like this though. football rules change all the time (even things like practice rules). Football does not lend itself to these type of comparisons so a lot of the debates are very subjective.
