Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

8slim

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Pharoah was on the Pats radio pregame show last week. He came across as a truly great dude. I’m a fan for life now.
 

richgedman'sghost

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I would have traded everyone on this offense except Pop Douglas and slept like a baby afterward. This was a missed opportunity.
How often especially during the season do you see 10 or 11 guys traded from one team at the trade deadline? The Crazy Legs Hirsch trade happened in the off-season in the 1950s and I'm pretty sure the Herschel Walker trade did as well. There is no way to integrate 10 or 11 players into your system at one time. Even if you did it for tanking purposes, I'm not sure a team would do it. Can you name one team that traded away or released 11 players in the NFL at once during the season at the trade deadline?
 

8slim

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How often especially during the season do you see 10 or 11 guys traded from one team at the trade deadline? The Crazy Legs Hirsch trade happened in the off-season in the 1950s and I'm pretty sure the Herschel Walker trade did as well. There is no way to integrate 10 or 11 players into your system at one time. Even if you did it for tanking purposes, I'm not sure a team would do it. Can you name one team that traded away or released 11 players in the NFL at once during the season at the trade deadline?
We also needed trade partners. Are we surprised that other NFL teams weren’t enamored with the offensive talent that we’ve spent the past 3 months trashing here?
 

Cellar-Door

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yeah the idea of "trade everyone" just tells me any poster who puts it up doesn't really pay much attention to the league. There aren't that many trades in-season in the NFL, and the ones there are usually fall into one of two categories...
1. Stars who get sold cheap because of expiring contracts (Sweat/CMC/Young, etc.)
2. Guys who were going to get cut who get packaged with a 7th for a 6th (akers, etc.)

Patriots expiring guys weren't good enough to warrant a big return especially with Uche dinged up, and nobody in group 2 made sense in terms of money for both teams, except maybe Zeke, but no real reason to make that kind of trade unless you plan to cut a guy anyway.
 

chilidawg

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I'm soooo wondering how they figure this stuff out. I think in the moments he's had, he's been solid. But, I mean, he's not exactly Travis Kelce.
Take it with a grain of salt for sure. I don't think anyone means that he's the best TE, but rather that in his limited reps he's performed very well.

I've always assumed that they actually watch film and grade guys based on how they execute each play. I mean how else do you give a guy a grade for blocking?
 

Jimbodandy

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yeah the idea of "trade everyone" just tells me any poster who puts it up doesn't really pay much attention to the league. There aren't that many trades in-season in the NFL, and the ones there are usually fall into one of two categories...
1. Stars who get sold cheap because of expiring contracts (Sweat/CMC/Young, etc.)
2. Guys who were going to get cut who get packaged with a 7th for a 6th (akers, etc.)

Patriots expiring guys weren't good enough to warrant a big return especially with Uche dinged up, and nobody in group 2 made sense in terms of money for both teams, except maybe Zeke, but no real reason to make that kind of trade unless you plan to cut a guy anyway.
FWIW, I think that the "trade everyone" folks aren't just cheering for the return on the "everyone" but also the complete bottoming-out of the record for the highest possible pick. Still not worth it IMO, but it wasn't just a case of wanting a bunch of 6th round picks.

edit: funniest part of that is that Bill often has a crapton of 6th rounders already
 

tims4wins

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FWIW, I think that the "trade everyone" folks aren't just cheering for the return on the "everyone" but also the complete bottoming-out of the record for the highest possible pick. Still not worth it IMO, but it wasn't just a case of wanting a bunch of 6th round picks.

edit: funniest part of that is that Bill often has a crapton of 6th rounders already
Agreed.
 

Cellar-Door

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FWIW, I think that the "trade everyone" folks aren't just cheering for the return on the "everyone" but also the complete bottoming-out of the record for the highest possible pick. Still not worth it IMO, but it wasn't just a case of wanting a bunch of 6th round picks.

edit: funniest part of that is that Bill often has a crapton of 6th rounders already
Yeah, but it doesn't even make sense right, because you only have 1 7th to trade. I guess you could trade guys for 7ths? But then you have to backfill the positions with players which causes cap issues. It's just not a realistic view of how the NFL works or how you will benefit. If they wanted to tank benching Mac is probably far more impactful than any trades they could make.

What it really is, of course is just people being petulant, it's the same as the guys who say dumb stuff like "the Celtics should bench Tatum". When something goes wrong the solution is "fire everyone" without any real thought process behind it.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah, but it doesn't even make sense right, because you only have 1 7th to trade. I guess you could trade guys for 7ths? But then you have to backfill the positions with players which causes cap issues. It's just not a realistic view of how the NFL works or how you will benefit. If they wanted to tank benching Mac is probably far more impactful than any trades they could make.
Yep. Or they could bench Trent Brown and not even have to bench Mac. Some edge rusher would do it for them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Correct, Pharoah blocks

Thats cold, really cold. But true that no QB survives
even if he didn't get hurt, Mac has been great at avoiding big hits... of course he often does that by just throwing a floater up to be picked... which would help the tank.

Wouldn't happen though... Brown is clearly hurt, but he's also clearly not going to be happy to be sat down in a contract year. Playing pretty well while hurt is much better for his next deal than going on IR.
 

nattysez

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The next two games are critical for the Pats' draft pick. There are a ton of bad teams with 3 wins. If the Pats beat Indy or the NYG, I think it's going to be very tough to stay in the top 10.

And honestly, I think the Pats will win one of those games.
 

Arroyoyo

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The next two games are critical for the Pats' draft pick. There are a ton of bad teams with 3 wins. If the Pats beat Indy or the NYG, I think it's going to be very tough to stay in the top 10.

And honestly, I think the Pats will win one of those games.
This is what I was saying the other day. Mac is just good enough to put us in a position where we don’t draft his replacement.
 

AB in DC

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Does seem like Carolina and Arizona are clearly the dregs of the league. Don't see that changing unless Kyler Murray comes back and plays lights out.

Below (above?) that are the sad teams who might squeak out a win here or there...Giants, Pats, Bears. Maybe Broncos or Raiders.

Then a whole bunch of mediocre teams that will probably finish 6-11 or 7-10 or something.

Still seems like a top five pick is very likely.
 

Marciano490

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It was helpful when people were posting updates about Maye and Williams and other potential moonshots, if some NCAA aficionado wants to resume that.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I'm really concerned about outtanking the Giants with Jones now out for the year. We get a head to head with them in 3 weeks at least to "control our fate".
 

Cellar-Door

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Does seem like Carolina and Arizona are clearly the dregs of the league. Don't see that changing unless Kyler Murray comes back and plays lights out.

Below (above?) that are the sad teams who might squeak out a win here or there...Giants, Pats, Bears. Maybe Broncos or Raiders.

Then a whole bunch of mediocre teams that will probably finish 6-11 or 7-10 or something.

Still seems like a top five pick is very likely.
Kyler's 21 days is about to be up so they have to activate him, if they don't activate and start him I'd assume NFLPA files a grievance... honestly might see the league step in too. Being bad is allowable, trading away your decent backup QB, refusing to play your star QB and throwing out a guy you know can't play on purpose isn't going to fly with the league is my guess. If they wanted to truly tank they needed to trade Kyler. They came close a couple times with Dobbs, and Kyler is better. I think ARI is winning at least 1-2 more games this year.

CAR is awful so unless their rookie QB has a huge mid-season leap the Bears are getting a top pick.

Giants have no QB at all right now. Maybe if Tyrod comes back they win a game but that's a truly bad team.
 

nattysez

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It was helpful when people were posting updates about Maye and Williams and other potential moonshots, if some NCAA aficionado wants to resume that.
Williams had a strong game this week, but USC lost to the undefeated Huskies. The USC defensive coordinator got fired yesterday in the wake of that game. After losing the game, Williams jumped into the stands and was sobbing on his mom's shoulder (with his helmet still on), which I'm sure armchair psychoanalysts spent Sunday dissecting. Williams is still almost certainly going to be the #1 pick.

If this was even 5 years ago, people might be excited about Dillon Johnson, the Washington RB who went for 256 yards and 4 TD, averaging 9.8 yards a carry, but those days are over.

People seem to be getting excited about Bo Nix (Oregon) again, but he played against a pretty bad Cal team this week, so it's hard to judge what his pro potential is.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Kyler's 21 days is about to be up so they have to activate him, if they don't activate and start him I'd assume NFLPA files a grievance... honestly might see the league step in too. Being bad is allowable, trading away your decent backup QB, refusing to play your star QB and throwing out a guy you know can't play on purpose isn't going to fly with the league is my guess. If they wanted to truly tank they needed to trade Kyler. They came close a couple times with Dobbs, and Kyler is better. I think ARI is winning at least 1-2 more games this year.

CAR is awful so unless their rookie QB has a huge mid-season leap the Bears are getting a top pick.

Giants have no QB at all right now. Maybe if Tyrod comes back they win a game but that's a truly bad team.
If I'm not mistaken, if Arizona doesn't activate Kyler by Wednesday, he automatically goes on season ending IR. He's still getting paid, and unless I've missed it, I haven't seen much out of the Murray camp saying he's ready and wants to be back, so I'm not sure if the NFLPA would step in under those circumstances.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Several reporters have indicated that Murray should play next Sunday, ie, get activated this week. I believe he needs to be activated by the transaction deadline on Wednesday to avoid him reverting to season-ending IR.
 

Cellar-Door

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One tough thing for the Patriots... Hardest SOS in the league, so they'll lose every tiebreaker
 

Dogman

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I was thinking in terms of an active thread where there is at least something positive and hopeful on the main page but whatever folks want to do as far as where to go with it.
 

thurin68

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How likely Is it that the Giants or Carolina take a QB with their first pic if they finish #1 and 2 respectively for the ‘24 draft?
 

Deathofthebambino

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How likely Is it that the Giants or Carolina take a QB with their first pic if they finish #1 and 2 respectively for the ‘24 draft?
Chicago owns Carolina's pick, so they aren't picking anyway.

The draft could be Giants/Bears/Bears with 1,2,3. I think either of them would take Caleb Williams if he's there. Maye might be more questionable, but I can't see either of them passing on him either.
 

tims4wins

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The Bears are kind of repeating the Jets with the Darnold-Wilson combo. Will be interesting if they actually get a decent player this time.
 

cshea

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Isn't Kyler coming back for Arizona this week?

Not that I think they won't be in the draft market for a QB but he could plausibly lead them to a few wins down the stretch and knock them down a bit.
 

Cellar-Door

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How likely Is it that the Giants or Carolina take a QB with their first pic if they finish #1 and 2 respectively for the ‘24 draft?
Giants pretty likely, Carolina doesn't own their own pick, it goes to CHI.

Open question whether they use one of the two picks to replace Fields, but it does mean at least 1 early pick is either getting traded or used on a non-QB since they certainly aren't taking 2.
 

Justthetippett

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Giants pretty likely, Carolina doesn't own their own pick, it goes to CHI.

Open question whether they use one of the two picks to replace Fields, but it does mean at least 1 early pick is either getting traded or used on a non-QB since they certainly aren't taking 2.
I would be very surprised if CHI didn't draft a QB if they are in position for Williams/Maye. Fields was starting to show a few things early this season but they won't be picking up his fifth year option, and I would think they'd want to reset the clock given the overall status of their team. It's also pretty rare to be able to go QB/WR (if they can also get Harrison) with two high picks, and that will jazz the fanbase. It would be pretty rich however if they pass on Mahomes and the "next Mahomes" and both come back to bite them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Tonight was a big game for the pick. Chicago goes below NE with their 3rd win, if CAR had won both would be ahead.
 

NomarsFool

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The Pats control their own destiny vs. New York, but it's hard to get too excited about the prospects for Carolina or Arizona picking up a win, with the exception of the game vs. Chicago - someone's got to win that one. At least Carolina has less incentive to tank.
 

nattysez

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I mean if Kyler Murray does come back, wouldn't Arizona win a couple of more games?
ATL, @HOU, LAR, @PIT, SF, @CHI, @PHI, SEA.

You could argue that Arizona could beat Atlanta, the Rams, Pitt and Chicago, but I think the chances of them getting to three wins is very slim.
 

koufax32

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Looks like the Pats record will come down to how they do in two weeks against the Giants. That’s gonna be a hard one to lose.
 

cshea

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It’s really hard to bottom tank. They are 2-8 and probably going to be in 4th. A random win like the Bills game and with the tiebreakers being what they are they’ll be back in 7th or something.