Note that Bellinger looks like a poor fit for Fenway, his resurgence has come with good launch angles and averages but poor power. He'd lose a ton of HR to right and he's never had the profile to take advantage of the monster.
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Would there be a concern that if he pitches and only DHs for a few years that by the time he's done pitching that he might have not played OF for too long to jump back in? I assume he'd have to keep up some OF reps over the years to maintain it.
This already might be the case, he played a total of 8.1 innings in the OF over the last six seasons with LAA and before that not really since he was a teenager starting out. Basically he hasn’t played the OF for the past decade.
He's already not played OF enough that it's probably too late to jump back in. Though jumping back in is doing a lot of work considering he's played all of 8 innings defensively since coming to the States. Nearly all of them were late innings after he pitched in an effort to keep his bat in the lineup as that was before the Ohtani rule was instituted to allow him to remain as the DH even after he was done pitching. Prior to that, he last played the outfield in Japan in 2014. He's as much an outfielder as Bobby Dalbec is a shortstop.
I may be giving him too much credit--and for the record, I'm not really crazy about signing him, at least strategically--but I guess I assume that someone who is a great enough athlete to both hit and pitch at the very highest level could re-learn to play outfield.
If not, then I'm even less interested.
If not, then I'm even less interested.
Well, it depends on which OF position. I'm assuming by OF, people mean LF and I think he could absolutely learn that position at a passable level, if given an offseason to prepare. He probably has the athleticism to play CF and RF but not the experience. But there have been plenty of butchers in LF, including our current one.
I think the issue is that he'd likely only resort to playing a defensive position after his pitching career is over, which could be in five years or more. So he'd be past his prime and perhaps losing some of that athleticism by the time he goes that route. A 28 year old Ohtani trades his pitching glove for an outfielder's glove (or a 1B mitt) and he probably can be proficient enough to get by. A 34+ year old Ohtani probably struggles with it.
He is also at the point where they would have to pay market rates for him and they just might not think that that’s an efficient use of resources with cheaper alternatives on the roster (Aubreu) and on the near horizon (Anthony).
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And maybe that's the disconnect. I have serious doubts that he's going to be pitching that much longer. Based on nothing other than it's really, really hard to continue to do both, and the injuries are starting to mount.
It will actually be an interesting situation. He won't pitch again until his age 31 season but he'll be locked up long-term so he won't have as much leverage to be stubborn about it. You kind of feeling like this might be his final chance at the elite dual role.
Just a silly meme is all. There's always been a mystery team.
https://en.meming.world/wiki/Always_has_been
Not to spoil the fun or anything, but the "Shohei to the Sox????" rumors seem like exactly the kind of thing that a team would want out there for the more restless members of the fanbase following two uninspiring seasons and accusations of being too cheap. Doesn't mean it isn't legit, I guess.
Weirder to me is Kennedy going on record to talk about extensions. Fine, maybe it's not super controversial to say you want to keep Bello and Casas, but it feels like something else he's taking out of the control of the PBOS-to-be (in addition to, presumably, the field manager).
I guess it's plausible the rumors are coming from the Sox, but it's far far more likely the Shohei stuff is coming from his camp (Heyman being an infamous mouthpiece for agents). The more teams with money that seem to be involved in the Shohei sweepstakes, the more leverage he's got. The New Balance thing gives it just enough of a hook to not appear to be a blatant smokescreen.
Whatever anyone pays Ohtani, it's gotta be 80% or more based on his hitting. The pitching could work out but it's a complete lottery ticket. Maybe someone pays him 500M instead of 400M based on the pitching possibility?
I think if he gave up pitching for good, he could be a solid OF for the next 5 years or so. He is very fast and athletic, I cant imagine he cant be at least decent out there. He is certainly an imperfect fit with this roster, but I'd still be on board if they can get it done.
The biggest question to me is, where does ownership see payroll in the next few years. If we aren't going to be in the top 10, very hard to justidy 50M/year on Ohtani, way too many other holes. But if we're jumping back into 250M range then suddenly it becomes more intriguing.
I think if he gave up pitching for good, he could be a solid OF for the next 5 years or so. He is very fast and athletic, I cant imagine he cant be at least decent out there. He is certainly an imperfect fit with this roster, but I'd still be on board if they can get it done.
The biggest question to me is, where does ownership see payroll in the next few years. If we aren't going to be in the top 10, very hard to justidy 50M/year on Ohtani, way too many other holes. But if we're jumping back into 250M range then suddenly it becomes more intriguing.
A 10 year deal for anyone is pretty scary, but how confidence in future revenues can teams be given the uncertainty with local rights going forward? The CBA expires at the end of 2026. I’d be pretty nervous with a ton of big money deals going way past that but I guess you can’t really avoid that if you are trying to contend.
No one suggested we can pay him $25 million/year as the CBO bringing his player and payroll limited salary to just $35 million?
I'm not opposed to "saving" that money to spread around for more overall talent, but I have to wonder if the current state of big contracts makes that a little less exciting. If you tell me we could get 3 Eovaldi-level performers for that money, sure. But it could easily end up being like a Trea Turner/Rodon offseason, or worse.
The franchise has steadily tried to add more floor-raisers and it hasn't been a total failure, but they really need to add ceiling-raisers. The 2013 path probably doesn't hit quite the same if you don't have Ortiz still dominating and Lester/Lackey churning out 400 strong innings at the top of the rotation.
The franchise has steadily tried to add more floor-raisers and it hasn't been a total failure, but they really need to add ceiling-raisers. The 2013 path probably doesn't hit quite the same if you don't have Ortiz still dominating and Lester/Lackey churning out 400 strong innings at the top of the rotation.
I think they're clearly going to be top 10 in payroll. The expectation seems to be that they'll be in the 250M range, and that's without a whole lot of talk about Ohtani. It will be really tough to add two quality starting pitchers AND Ohtani and not significantly exceed $250M, at least for 2024.
Indeed. I thought I was ignorant for not understanding (which may still be the case, just not for lack of understanding that meme). Carry on.
There is zero reason for them to not be Top 10 in payroll. Really Top 5 - 6.
I’m not sure the Ohtani rumors have any real truth to them but he’s the type of impact player they should be looking at signing. I’m tired of the scrap heap pick ups.
I’m not sure the Ohtani rumors have any real truth to them but he’s the type of impact player they should be looking at signing. I’m tired of the scrap heap pick ups.
Deferring to your knowledge of human physiology, signing him to play in the outfield seems at best likely to be a time-limited prospect (see also, Ellsbury, Jacoby), and I agree with your assessment about the Sox priorities. I'm guessing this is all academic, because 250M is highly unlikely to get it done.
It's going to be interesting to see how GMs price the goods in his case.
The Angels had Ohtani and Trout and couldn’t field a playoff team. I think the Sox have a good farm system and if you added Ohtani and Trout they would still struggle to get in the playoffs if both players stayed healthy. Big if.
This team needs 2 top half of the rotation starters that can be counted on for 60 combined 6 inning starts. Ohtani isn’t one. We’ve got enough DHs.
This team needs 2 top half of the rotation starters that can be counted on for 60 combined 6 inning starts. Ohtani isn’t one. We’ve got enough DHs.
Ohtani made $30M in 2023 as a combination DH/Pitcher. He has 8.1 Innings played in the OF over his MLB career. Even if he can't come back as a pitcher, I'm skeptical that he would be willing to sign for much under what he made this year. With Devers, Casas, Yoshida being considered by many as DH material, do the Sox need another DH or should they use the money needed to sign Ohtani to fill in other gaps in their lineup and on the mound? Of course, from the point-of-view of the owner, Ohtani might help keep the attendance up.
At the risk of being overly repetitive, the size of an Ohtani contract will, for most teams, depend on the ability to get reasonable contract insurance. I believe the Red Sox are a team that regularly insures larger contracts.
With all the metrics we have in baseball these days, do we have a metric to compare "bang for the buck"?
With all the metrics we have in baseball these days, do we have a metric to compare "bang for the buck"?
I'll be very disappointed if this franchise isn't in the top 10 regardless of what they do with Ohtani. This team needs to flex its financial muscles again at some point.
I feel like this has been stated before, but even though I agree we need 2 more reliable starters, we have to recalibrate some of our starting pitching expectations.
The MLB leader in game started made 35, and only 40 pitchers in all of baseball made 30+ starts.
Of those 40, 16 didn’t pitch 180 innings, so not way they made a firm 6IP/start.
When 24 players in the whole sport meet this criteria, we may need to adjust our thinking that it’s going to be tough to add 2 in a single offseason, much less having them be very good starters.
Those guys are becoming rare, and likely the same guys may no longer reliably make the list year over year.
Maybe. Heyman cites a team executive in his reporting, fwiw (presumably from the Mets), and also he's generally associated with having access to Boras and his clients, and as far as I can tell, Ohtani is not one of them. I'm sticking by my theory until further reporting comes to light.
The only thing insurable at this point are non-pitching related physical capabilities and skills, and there's nothing to insure with a DH. The teams are going into this on the hook for the whole deal.
The Ohtani connection with New Balance sounds a lot like when people say “His wife is from New Hampshire” or “He just bought a house in Martha’s Vineyard“. Does this stuff ever really move the needle? Ohtani is a global superstar. If he tells New Balance to move their headquarters to Newark airport so he can be a Met, they will do it.
I feel like the glut at DH is one of the biggest challenges for the Red Sox and the new CBO. They have to be able to construct a hitting lineup that isn’t a mishmash in the field. Ohtani makes it worse. If they trade Devers, then it starts to seem possible. Otherwise you pay a heavy premium to exacerbate an already sub-optimal situation.
Two things come to mind:
How old was Rick Ankiel when he went from pitching to OF? (Rhetorical question... I don't think it's completely impossible for a pitcher to become an OFer later)
And is Ohtani's injury the type that might make him a risk as a closer too?
How old was Rick Ankiel when he went from pitching to OF? (Rhetorical question... I don't think it's completely impossible for a pitcher to become an OFer later)
And is Ohtani's injury the type that might make him a risk as a closer too?
Due to being a DH in his day job, there doesn’t seem to be a plausible way to be a closer. When would he warm up? Etc…
Well, if a) Ohtani becomes an OFer, then it would seem to suggest you pinchhit for him if his turn comes up while he's warming up for the 9th, or b) if he's a DH, you don't lose the DH spot and would just have to time when to have him warm up.
As a closer, you'd have better knowledge of when he pitches vs when his spot is, and work accordingly situationally.
And if the Sox keep wanting to use an opener, why not then too?
As a closer, you'd have better knowledge of when he pitches vs when his spot is, and work accordingly situationally.
And if the Sox keep wanting to use an opener, why not then too?
If you pinch hit for him, isn’t he out of the game?
If he is the DH due up third in the top of the 9th, what do you do? He could make the last out, or could be on the bases at the end of the inning,
Damn, for some reason I was thinking positional swapping/moving around but now I'm not sure that works the way I was thinking.
It might be a case of just using him as a closer in the 10th instead if the game is tied.
I suggested this on September 17th:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/what-does-red-sox-starting-pitching-look-like-in-2024.40102/page-9#post-5744464
Lobster rolls were $36 at last check.
Side note, food at Fenway was been atrocious since covid. There was a stretch up until around 2018 where it was decent and there was variety.
Were you expecting me to go through every post to double check your thought compared to an external website that came up with the idea 2 weeks later? I don't know what to tell you besides you are an oracle of trade ideas.
Sorry if I wasn't clear, but the 250M was referring to the Red Sox yearly payroll, as things become more plausible if they are planning to be a top 5 payroll team. I'm quite sure a 250M total contract will not get it done for Ohtani.
As far as the outfield issue, he just seems too talented and athletic not to be able to do it for a good chunk of the contract. He is a big guy, but nothing like some Ortiz-type plodder.
To others mentioning the closer idea for his elbow, I'm not sure that helps much. Plenty of closers blow out their UCL too (the Orioles closer just went down). Throwing 100 MPH overhead is just not something we were designed to do, we have a 5 mm thick structure holding our elbow in place. It's unfortunate.
TJ surgery is not a complete lottery ticket. It's pretty predictable these days.
Guardians probably say no just because they can get more than a year of Dugie and whatever Abreu is (I do like Abreu, but we can't quite jump to conclusions yet). I'd like it though. Not remembering why Bieber had such an off year but given that his starts were way down it must have been injury. WE would be buying low.
Aaactually... I'm a no. He was on the 60-day DL with elbow inflammation, then came back and pitched OK in a couple late-season starts. That's all we need.
1st of all, it's not that predictable (though obviously "lottery ticket" was hyperbole, he's got a much better chance than that).
2nd of all, it's not his first TJ surgery.
3rd of all, his most recent surgery was more unique than a typical TJ surgery.
We'll see what happens, I hope he comes back to pitch in 2025 and has another 5+ years of elite pitching in him. But no one is going to pay him big on the pitching side of things, its a bonus if it works out. His contract will be far more based on a team's projection of his hitting.
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