Offseason rumors
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I think the Padres are really open to cutting payroll. They'll start with Soto and work their way down the salary list. Most of their high-paid players have full no-trade clauses (X, Musgrove, Machado, Tatis and Darvish) - doesn't mean they won't waive them but the players have leverage. Soto doesn't have one and won't re-sign after next year, so he's the first one on the block.
I have a notion that Seattle won’t pay both Kirby and Gilbert long-term. I also think because they have Harry Ford coming up that they could part ways with Raleigh. I also know for a fact Cal would love the chance to play in Boston.
I also toyed with the idea of centering a package around Yoshida with Yorke and Bleis going out. Seattle needs hitting pretty badly.
I wouldn't oppose getting X back in Boston if San Diego wants to subsidize half of his salary. I would think coming back to Boston would be something he'd at least consider in waiving his no trade.
Just as importantly, if you’re Boston why expend prospect capital on a catcher when you have Kyle Teel set to reach Boston next season anyway?
That’s interesting about Raleigh. He seems like a Saltalamacchia type hitter who just happens to be excellent defensively.
I don’t see why they’d trade Kirby or Gilbert but maybe they’d package Raleigh with Robbie Ray? Ray seems like a mistake — he’s the guy they actually wanna boot from a rotation that includes Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, Gonzales, Hancock, and Woo. But they’ve pretty much got to start him if he’s healthy, at least for another year and a half.
I’m not a big fan of Ray, especially after injury, but I’d chance taking on his 3/$73M contract if they want to staple Raleigh to it. (BTV has them both neutralizing the other’s value.) And maybe a Breslow-led coaching effort can help him. Then of course, maybe getting Raleigh frees up Wong or even Teel for a trade?
So trade prospect capital and $73 million for a catcher so that you can use your catching prospect to trade for a pitcher? Wouldn’t it be easier to just trade for a P?
This is another example of how foolish BTV is...per FanGraphs Raleigh has been worth $70.8m the last 2 years.
& Ray was worth nothing this year what with the whole TJ surgery thing, but $14m in '22 & $31m in '21.
Raleigh has 1 more pre-arb years & 3 arb years. Those contracts aren't close to balancing each other out.
Seattle expects Ray back around the All Star break.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-cautiously-optimistic-about-robbie-rays-return-in-2024/
I think I'd do this deal. I sure hope Yorke is good but he could end up being fungible. Bleis is very far away right now despite the five-tool flashes.
I only think Seattle would consider this deal if they're not upping payroll... which to be fair, their owner did not bother to last offseason. Still, I"d bet Seattle would ask for another significant piece on top of this
We wouldn’t be trading much prospect capital in a hypothetical deal for Raleigh and Ray. The idea is that taking on Ray and that contract is pretty hefty.
It could only work because Ford is probably ready within the year, and because Ray may not even be one of their five best starters, arguably. He gets a lot of whiffs, but he gives up a ton of homers. I could see him being a decent #4 for us.
Something like this as a basic framework could be interesting.
BOS receives: Ray, Raleigh
SEA receives: Verdugo, Wong, Walter
I mean, I'm cool with the trade, but I'd be tempted to flip Raleigh next off season. Ford didn't play higher than A+ this year. He did great, but Teel is a year older & finished up his season in AA.
Seems like if they were trying to accelerate Ford they would have not had him stay at A+ all year. He's a higher rated prospect, but there's no real indication he will be in MLB before Teel.
It also seems likely the Mariners will move Ford off catcher.
He threw out 22.9% of runners this year, & this was Keith Law's write up in July:
https://theathletic.com/4703833/2023/07/21/mlb-top-prospects-2023-minor-leaguers/
He threw out 22.9% of runners this year, & this was Keith Law's write up in July:
Compare to Teel who he had #50...
Teel threw out 30% in A+ & 29.3% across 3 levels.
https://theathletic.com/4703833/2023/07/21/mlb-top-prospects-2023-minor-leaguers/
He also had a broken wrist in a bone thats notoriously tough to heal.
I'd do some serious due diligence there as well before considering any offer.
With the Rangers on the mind, why not Ezequiel Duran? He struggled in the second half but that dude has a bazooka for an arm. His K rate shot up at the end of the year but there is some pretty awesome raw tools there and the Rangers are pretty set with their lineup.
I wasn't thinking Statcast darling when I saw the chase (7th percentile), walk (9th percentile) & range ratings (22nd percentile). It's also crazy that despite being in the 91st percentile in sprint speed, he's in the 15th percentile in Baserunning Run Value.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ezequiel-duran-677649?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Mike A is a Yankee guy so he knows Duran primarily as a Yankee prospect who was dealt in the Gallo deal, so he is probably going on his prospect rep as well as his MLB results. I have no opinion personally, I just remembered when Nip said that that I'd read the same thing elsewhere earlier in the day.
He had a good season... it just doesn't look sustainable, but who knows? Seems like a toolsy guy.
Can't find if this was brought up earlier, but just adding an interesting side story on Cal Raleigh's 'connection' to Sox lore, and JV in particular...
https://www.mlb.com/news/cal-raleigh-first-catcher-homer-both-sides-in-a-game-fenway-park
I do see Kyle Teel as our catcher of the near future, however.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cal-raleigh-first-catcher-homer-both-sides-in-a-game-fenway-park
I do see Kyle Teel as our catcher of the near future, however.
He is definitely a PED user owed a ton, but I'm not sure what your definition of hitting at an adequate level is. He had a 113 wrc+ this year (15 points higher than Verdugo) and ranked top 20 in a bunch of statcast metrics.
Bloom’s goal was to build a self sustaining team the consistently produced home grown major league players. The real issue with Bloom was he just did not appear able to take the risk associated with an overpay to bring in someone that gets the Sox to the next level.
I want the Sox to bring in an individual that greatly impacts their winning more games. Sign me up for Gilbert from the Mariners in an overpay. But I worry about someone like Trout as a marque name. Ohtani would be great but team fit is a problem as he’s a DH and selling advertising doesn’t win games.
Yamamoto is the big splash and risk worth taking the chance on. But the competition is fierce. Will he fell the Sox are the right fit for him?
... he was worth 5.5 bWAR despite having a 113 wRC+. Canha & Suwinski were each 2.2 bWAR players.
He was the best defensive rightfielder in baseball, & in his 3 previous seasons his wRC+ was 151, 151 & 158, so there is certainly a bounce back possibility, especially considering he'll be 25 next season & how nice these Savant #s look:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/fernando-tatis-jr-665487?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
& even if a 113 wRC+ is his new normal, he's still a giant bargain. Fangraphs, which only has him as a 4.4 fWAR player says his season this year was worth $35m. So $24.3m per year for 11 years for a guy who still shouldn't be in his prime, isn't that scary.
Now of course there are actual risks, character concerns, PED concerns, broken bones, home/road splits, etc.
But the road thing seems to be an aberration.
'23
Home 140 wRC+
Road 86 wRC+
'21
Home 141 wRC+
Road 174 wRC+
'20
Home 154 wRC+
Road 147 wRC+
'19
Home 153 wRC+
Road 148 wRC+
Petco Park is the 2nd toughest hitters park in baseball, so I'm not really sure what kind of narrative would cause this to be a thing, especially combined with past road success.
#plaguerism4thewin
I think the key difference is Bowden is a known commodity in the game. He throws out a column or a tweet or a radio spot where he names 5-6 possible destinations for a player, we know he's likely pulling shit out of his ass for clicks because he's done it for years. When it's an anonymous rando, we don't know if it's similar uninformed out of the ass musings or it's the new young beat guy for an existing newspaper or website and he/she just hasn't made a name yet (and this might where he/she does it).
I'm with @JM3 on Tatis. Tatis Jr. had a BABIP of .299 despite hitting the ball hard 49% of the time. That's 90th percentile for HH%. He was top 1% or 2% before the PED suspension, so not as good, but still great. The only full time player on the Sox who would have topped that mark would be Devers, who hit the ball hard 55% of the time and also had what appeared to me to be an unlucky BABIP of .294 (Dever's career BABIP is .315). If Tatis's BABIP had been fifteen points higher or so he would have probably had a wrc+ of 120 or higher.
Of course the difference between Devers and Tatis is that Devers is a better hitter marginally, and Tatis is a better fielder by leaps and bounds. The PED stuff doesn't bother me maybe as much as it does others, and I think with him being young, a great defender, and the sort of guy who rips the cover off the ball... yeah, he's exactly the kind of guy I'd like going forard, even if he's just a 115 wrc+ guy. We have Casas and Devers to anchor the lineup. We need really good defenders like Story and Tatis to bolster the lineup.
That said, I don't see the Padres trying to offload him, so it might all be academic.
Of course the difference between Devers and Tatis is that Devers is a better hitter marginally, and Tatis is a better fielder by leaps and bounds. The PED stuff doesn't bother me maybe as much as it does others, and I think with him being young, a great defender, and the sort of guy who rips the cover off the ball... yeah, he's exactly the kind of guy I'd like going forard, even if he's just a 115 wrc+ guy. We have Casas and Devers to anchor the lineup. We need really good defenders like Story and Tatis to bolster the lineup.
That said, I don't see the Padres trying to offload him, so it might all be academic.
Good stuff, thanks.
I suppose I’m a little wary that the collective thirst for action will have us overpaying for starters a lot riskier than Price, Sale and Porcello were.
Robbie Ray of course is himself risky, but as a quasi-salary dump and at three years, it’s the kind of buy-low, creative deal I’m interested in. Needless to say that depends on the cost, or who Seattle might include to shed his salary, and I can only speculate there.
Pretty much every winter I want the Sox to flex their financial muscle to take on good players attached to others with bad contracts. It’s much easier said than done.
what does Tatis look like superimposed into Fenway park? Gotta figure that would be a little more conducive to offense than Petco
Yeah, I'm fine with that concept, too. Just doesn't seem like those situations come up that often. Especially with the weakening of some of the penalties for being over the thresholds.
According to the SoxPayroll guy we're at $199m right now, & the $$$ only threshold for this season is $277m, which they should want to keep a few million under to allow for deadline flexibility, so they should at least $70m of net spend this off season if the owners are serious about things.
There are a # of creative ways to spend that, especially if they're willing to move on from a guy like Jansen.
The second threshold shouldn’t be that scary either. We've got no pending FAs who need a QO, and I don’t think it’s all that prohibitive to pick at #32-40 instead of #22-30 — assuming we’re in contention.
If we plan to swim against the tide and pivot to drafting pitchers early, there should be plenty to work with in the #32-40 range.
Lol I'm in the process of trying to figure out what I did wrong. I got the same result. Everything looks like it should be there to me.
I think I've seen @chawson post them before so maybe he or someone else can make it happen.
His batted ball profile might be more relevant. Honestly doesn't look like an amazing fit for Fenway. 
Statcast also has Fenway suppressing his HR; he hits the ball so hard I assume some of those pulled HR are screaming liners that the monster would turn into doubles or singles.
Statcast also has Fenway suppressing his HR; he hits the ball so hard I assume some of those pulled HR are screaming liners that the monster would turn into doubles or singles.
I think I figured it out. Hopefully this link works for everyone else.
<iframe src="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator/static?guid=36a2fb9d-d31c-4905-bcbd-dfd4326ef432&scale=true"></iframe>
Tough to tell as the elevation isn't obvious, but there does seem to be a fair amount of fly outs to LF and CF that could become HR's or 2B's
<iframe src="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator/static?guid=36a2fb9d-d31c-4905-bcbd-dfd4326ef432&scale=true"></iframe>
Tough to tell as the elevation isn't obvious, but there does seem to be a fair amount of fly outs to LF and CF that could become HR's or 2B's
Tatis Jr’s numbers from 2023 tell different stories. Yes, Hard Hit % was 90th percentile. But I don’t love Hard Hit because it’s a crude measure. It includes any batted ball with a 100+ exit velocity, whether a line drive, pop up, fly ball or ground ball.
His Barrel %, I think a better indicator for hitting success, was still above average, but just 70th percentile. Despite that, his xwOBA was 90th percentile.
But his results were again lower, tracking more with his Barrel %. By Baseball Savant his Batting Run Value (results) was a slightly above average 63rd percentile.
Going deeper, into his batted ball profile, his 11% Barrel was way down from 21.3% in 2021 and 19.5% in 2020. Even lower than his 2019 rookie season, which was 13.2%.
So there’s all that.
Then, Savant shows his sprint speed of 29.3 as 94th percentile. But his baserunning run value was 49th percentile, a tick below average. The speed not translating into plus baserunning.
On the other hand, the defense is superlative. Range and Arm Value both 94th percentile, and arm strength 99th. By results, his Fielding Run Value matched those components, coming in at 96th percentile.
All that said, he looks MUCH better across the board than Verdugo.
Assuming he is available — a huge IF— would the Sox trade Verdugo (immediate replacement) and Roman Anthony (potential long-term replacement) and maybe one or two other lottery ticket prospects for Tatis?
Lol he's incredible. Led league in defensive runs saved by 6 in 2023 in RF!! And still had a 113wRC+ in an off year (for him) while posting 3 more runs in BsR. Dude was #3 on trade value chart (which assesses future value including contracts) as of July 2022: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-trade-value-1-to-10/
Buy low, sell high.
He was #3 in July, and then he was suspended for PEDs in August. Since coming back, his barrel rate has basically halved; the top end exit velo is still up there, but that's not as valuable as the barrels. The wrist injury certainly doesn't help and that may not get any better either. Maybe he gets all the way back, maybe this is just what he is now. And if this is what he is, you're putting an awful amount of weight on a one year sample of defensive statistics to take on a contract that could preclude other moves, like signing Yamamoto.
Putting all kinds of weight into one year of defensive stats, which are at best significantly flawed, when the last time he hit well meaningfully better than Alex Verdugo was while he was juiced, seems crazy.
He was #3 on the trade charts before he was suspended for PEDs, when it was expected he could put up 5 WAR seasons. If you want to believe that him saving 20 runs in the field is at all sustainable, fine. I think the players that can do that in the history of baseball is in the single digits.
He was #3 on the trade charts before he was suspended for PEDs, when it was expected he could put up 5 WAR seasons. If you want to believe that him saving 20 runs in the field is at all sustainable, fine. I think the players that can do that in the history of baseball is in the single digits.
Take it for what this is worth, which I understand isn't very much. But I know a guy who has some first hand knowledge of how this player behaves off the field and he wouldn't be interested in a long term deal on the books. I've been told he's as sweet as pie but immature by nature and he simply will not get off of his motorcycle. The anecdotes that I've heard jive with the publicly reported persona. He's a great player, even in a down offensive year, but that makes me nervous about a long term commitment here, despite being a perfect fit.
C’mon. Don’t be unreasonable. I’ll be perfectly happy as long as Breslow adds 3 of those 4…
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