Ortiz 500 career homers this year?
- Thread starter budcrew08
- Start date
YTF said:
1) National League rules.
2) Napoli's gone.
3) He never refused to play 1B in back to back games or at all, despite popular belief.
He only ever stated he preferred not to play in the field all that often. Shocking stance from a 40-year-old, isn't it?
Ortiz playing 1B more often earlier in the year wasn't exactly going to be a difference maker as far as where this team is/was in the standings.
16 of their final 23 games are on the road, and they open the 2016 season with six games in Cleveland and Toronto. He would have to time it just right to hit #500 at home.
Stop with facts. David Ortiz is a selfish suckhead and the obvious problem with this team for the last 13 years.Red(s)HawksFan said:
I mean seriously, maybe now someone can try to retcon Ortiz's career into being all accumulated during garbage time.
He'd hit perfectly well against lefties for years (averages in the 260s and above, with good power), spanning several hundred at bats. The idea (taken by many here and many more outside of here) that he simply lost that ability over the winter and needed to be platooned seemed kind of silly.The Gray Eagle said:
Maybe there's evidence that when a hitter declines he loses it against same sided pitchers first, but I've never seen that.
Hopefully he keeps it up.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
I'm guessing the most important part of that list is "Napoli's gone" as Ortiz lobbying for more time at first base would have been him slapping another veteran, who he respects greatly, in the face. Now that it's just an unheralded rookie that he's playing over, I'm sure he won't have any misgivings at all.
djhb20 said:
I agree mostly. Though when I looked at other Hall of Fame or Hall of Very Good comparables late in their career, it did seem like many of them started to have much wider platoon splits.
Guys my point was this. At that particular time, just before the All Star break, the Sox were just 4 games under .500 in a division that still seemed up for grabs and likely the only shot the Sox had at making the playoffs. I know he didn't refuse to play 1st base, but he publicly said he didn't care to play in the field at a time when he was being asked to occasionally do so. A time when he may have been the better option given Napoli's struggles and an option that would allow Ramirez to DH which might allow for a better defensive option in left as well as a more productive bat than what Napoli was providing. It was an opportunity to put a better team on the field at a time when the Sox had a chance to do better. No it's not a shocking stance from a 40 year old which makes it a bit stranger now with not much left to play for. The thing is with David is that it's off putting that his differences, displeasure and complaints always seems to be done in public. I'll be forever grateful for his contributions here and his ability to at times put this franchise on his back and carry it. I hope he hit's his 500th this season and hits another 30 next season, but does that mean I can't question something that strikes me as strange? Perhaps he was concerned about getting injured and not acquiring enough PAs for his option to kick in and now that's no longer a concern.
I don't think its strange at all. I think it's really as simple as NL rules = business as usual, back at DH by the end of the week; AL rules = uh oh, this isn't what we usually do, how often do they want me playing first now? I'm not ok with this.YTF said:
If David Ortiz had publicly lobbied to play more first base it would have been equivalent to him saying, "I think Mike Napoli sucks and his presence on the team is killing us." No veteran is going to do that to another veteran. There's really nothing more to it than that.Laser Show said:
We should also remember that the question was asked not because of injuries, but because everyone wanted to ditch Napoli and DH Hanley full-time. I'm sure the quest for 500 is part of it, but neither of those guys lost playing time because of Ortiz playing 1b this week.
Also there is a difference between questioning something and making an acerbic one liner that presumes the answer. It's fine to do the latter, but own it as such.
Also there is a difference between questioning something and making an acerbic one liner that presumes the answer. It's fine to do the latter, but own it as such.
Even with this hot streak, his OPS vs. LHP is still only .538 this season.djhb20 said:
We're not talking about a prospect or someone in their prime. We're talking about someone who will be 40 in 3 months. He will lose the ability to hit MLB pitching anytime between now and a few seasons from now, suddenly or gradually. It's not an idea or theory, but rather a fact based upon every hitter in MLB history.
Of course David Ortiz is going to age and get worse as a hitter. But the idea that a small sample size of plate appearance in which he sucked against lefties means he should be platooned, after 4 straight years of excellent hitting against lefties, is and was a little over the top.
What do prospects have to do with it? I wasn't saying we should have projected him to develop that ability, but that history in a large sample over 4 years suggest he already has that ability.
ETA: I don't want to start a fight. My only point is that it isn't that surprising that he's started hitting lefties again. Perhaps I should've phrased it that way.
What do prospects have to do with it? I wasn't saying we should have projected him to develop that ability, but that history in a large sample over 4 years suggest he already has that ability.
ETA: I don't want to start a fight. My only point is that it isn't that surprising that he's started hitting lefties again. Perhaps I should've phrased it that way.
djhb20 said:
Baseball-reference can provide data to support your argument. Maybe you should use it.
Ortiz against LHP, simple OPS
2011 0.989
2012 0.985
2013 0.733
2014 0.893
2015 0.619
Have at it.
Edit, NM, I thought you were trying to use those numbers to argue that Ortiz was cooked. That's what I get for posting before I'm fully awake.StupendousMan said:
A small sample size could also be using a recent hot streak to dismiss half a season of being a black hole against lefties.djhb20 said:
4 straight years, 10 straight years, it doesn't matter because we're trying to project someone who will be 40 this fall. He simply won't be maintaining or improving his baseline in the medium term.
He's lost that ability in the past and then regained it. There's nothing silly about thinking that it's possible he might lose it again at some point and not be able to regain it.djhb20 said:
threecy said:
Thank you.
Of course, just because the end is (a) inevitable and (b) given his age, pretty certain to be relatively near, it doesn't follow that every little slump means it is upon us. If there's one thing we know about David Ortiz, it's that he knows how to adjust. But presumably this is getting harder all the time now. As Bob Dylan said, you can always come back, but you can't come back all the way.
Perhaps his troubles against LHP earlier this year had to do with some adjustment he had made to compensate for something or other, which made him temporarily vulnerable to lefties. Now he's adjusted again, and things are better--for now. At some point or other he's going to run out of adjustments, but there's no way to predict exactly when that will be.
threecy said:
Over the last four years, Ortiz has a 849 OPS vs. lefties and a 972 OPS vs. righties. So roughly 125 points difference in production. If you believe his performances vs. RHP is real this year (and there's no reason not to, as his 955 OPS this season vs. RHP is just below that 5-year average of 972), then Ortiz's baseline vs. lefties would likely be something like an 830 OPS.
Ortiz has gone through these slumps before, and has found ways to adjust. I don't think bat speed is an issue whatsoever with the guy, so I don't buy into the idea that out of nowhere he has just stopped learning to hit lefties and this recent hot streak is a fluke. If history is any indication, it is that Ortiz has found a tweak to his approach and is back to doing what he normally does - mash vs. whoever is on the mound.
We parse and parse and parse about what might happen soon, but in this dumpster fire of a season, it is pretty amazing what he's done and doing.
This season is playing out like the age 39 seasons of Stargell and McCovey. Stargell is really the hitter Papi reminds me of. He had a good part-time year at 40, then two years of PHing. McCovey's 39 was mostly a dead cat bounce.
Beyond that, its Ted Williams, Stan Musial territory. Or even Willie Mays, who was still a star at 40, a really good part-time player at 41, and done at 42. And Fisk.
This season is playing out like the age 39 seasons of Stargell and McCovey. Stargell is really the hitter Papi reminds me of. He had a good part-time year at 40, then two years of PHing. McCovey's 39 was mostly a dead cat bounce.
Beyond that, its Ted Williams, Stan Musial territory. Or even Willie Mays, who was still a star at 40, a really good part-time player at 41, and done at 42. And Fisk.
The realization that he's getting older is a sidelight to the idea that people are enamoured with in regard to not having a full time DH. It's not like this is a new argument and I can't go through the archives to 2009 when the same people were declaring Ortiz dead and buried.
Of course age is against him, but there is an IMO insane rush to be the person who cuts early rather than late. I guess that's fine. It's what we're here for. But believe me if David Ortiz getting paid too much to suck at age 41 is a top three problem for this team, we'll be happy.
Of course age is against him, but there is an IMO insane rush to be the person who cuts early rather than late. I guess that's fine. It's what we're here for. But believe me if David Ortiz getting paid too much to suck at age 41 is a top three problem for this team, we'll be happy.
I think there are competing views clouded by being fans - folks who want to assume his elite production will continue indefinitely vs. folks who want him to retire while he's still a great player.smastroyin said:
Twas ever thus. Every kid finally has the "aha" moment when the finality of age and skill hits home. (I think mine involved Walt Frazier.)
Just as there are very few players who remained this productive past 40, there are also very few who even got near 40 who "went out on top." I don't possess skills at anything like a great baseball player possesses baseball skills, but I think I understand that few players want to retire and then have second thoughts that he might have still had something left to give. The flipside of that, of course, is the risk that the player's last several hundred IP or PAs prove that, in fact, he had nothing left.
joe dokes said:
Ted Williams had a terrible year at 40, in 1959, and then came back in 1960 to have an OPS of 1.096 (in just 390 PA, though.) But that was Ted. Most everyone else stays a year too long, and I can't blame them, especially in today's era, where one more year is a lot of money.
35 years ago there was a lot of noise that Carl Yastrzemski should have retired after reaching the 400 HR/3000 Hit milestones in 1979, but he played 4 more mediocre years, because, quite simply, he was Yaz, could play as long as he wanted, given his historical importance to the franchise. David Ortiz doesn't get nearly as much choice in the matter, but, given his historical significance, I'm not going not going to begrudge him that one last year of suck, whether it's 2016, 2017, or beyond. Keeping Big Papi happy and working for the organization for the next 40 years is invaluable to the Red Sox.
Whats really impressed me about Ortiz is that he's been able to consistently dominate offensively over the years despite multiple obstacles:
- A devastating wrist injury in 2008.
- Increased utilization of defensive shifts.
- Better pitching.
- Bigger strike zone.
- Age.
Especially when you're paid more money than most of us will make in a lifetime to hang around for those last several hundred plate appearances.joe dokes said:
foulkehampshire said:
Great point(s), and now that Dick Bresciani is no longer with us, I hope that this perspective is presented in 7 or 8 years when Ortiz becomes eligible for HOF voting.
It's what Ortiz has done since his miserable start to the 2009 season, that makes him HOF worthy. Ortiz has surpassed Edgar Martinez as the greatest DH of all, even though Martinez accumulated most of his numbers in a hitter's era. I also feel that Ortiz appearance on "the list" from the 2003 survey test results is a bad knock. He didn't "Fail" a PED test. He tested "Positive" for something, and the results were supposed to be confidential. It always reminded me of Joe McCarthy from the early '50s saying he had a "List" of Communists, and when he would leak names from the list, people had their careers ruined without ever having a chance to defend themselves against specific charges.
I hope SOSH and it's members play a part in preparing Ortiz' HOF case.
That probably plays a role. But even as cynical as I am, I think that no athlete at this level wants to quit a year (or half a year) too soon and then have 40 years of regrets. (A one year deal like Ortiz has also makes the $$$ less of an issue than someone long-term Sabathia).
I could also see Ortiz doing what Mike Schmidt did, and just call off the jam in May if he thinks it's over. Hopefully it's May 2025.
For what it's worth, Williams' 1959 season was plagued by a neck injury at the start (presumably age was a factor in sustaining the injury, as well as a slow recovery). If I recall correctly, he took a pay cut and returned in 1960 to go out on a higher note (not his first retirement either).WenZink said:
Anecdotally, I believe from Yaz according to Yaz when a retired Williams gave him some tips in the early 1960s, Williams still had an MLB caliber bat as was routinely hitting bombs.
threecy said:
In his last season Ted had an unusually large platoon gap.. with an OPS of 1.214 vs RHP, and .720 vs LHP. I'm sure that pissed him off!! I'm sure if they had the DH in those days, Ted could have played and hit until he was nearing 50, but I think he was anxious to do some summer fishing in Nova Scotia or thereabouts.
Leaving Goldschmidt (24) out of it, 6 MLB players have 11 or more intentional walks this season:
Cabrerra
Ortiz
Trout
Mauer
Fielder
Harper
That may not be particularly enlightening (given game situation and on-deck bat), but it certainly indicates a certain elite level of proficiency (whether or not against LHP).
My thoughts on Ortiz (or any player) always include an assessment of whether or not we'd be ok with that player going to another AL East team under the same contractual terms as the Red Sox. In this case the answer is clearly, "no".
Cabrerra
Ortiz
Trout
Mauer
Fielder
Harper
That may not be particularly enlightening (given game situation and on-deck bat), but it certainly indicates a certain elite level of proficiency (whether or not against LHP).
My thoughts on Ortiz (or any player) always include an assessment of whether or not we'd be ok with that player going to another AL East team under the same contractual terms as the Red Sox. In this case the answer is clearly, "no".
The sox are probably shy to market "the road to 500" because their team will never reach it this year (or last).
Something I have always wondered: why don't we include postseason stats for career counting? It seems kind of lame to just not count that. It's not like those games are of less importance.
I don't buy the argument that it's not fair to count them because getting the chance to be in the postseason to hit those homers is the product of your team and not an individual achievement. Over the course of a 20-year career there are a myriad of different reasons why you might get more chances than someone else. And while your team success gave you the chance to do it, you still had to actually hit them.
From my point of view David Ortiz already has 508 home runs in major league games.
I don't buy the argument that it's not fair to count them because getting the chance to be in the postseason to hit those homers is the product of your team and not an individual achievement. Over the course of a 20-year career there are a myriad of different reasons why you might get more chances than someone else. And while your team success gave you the chance to do it, you still had to actually hit them.
From my point of view David Ortiz already has 508 home runs in major league games.
Or for that matter, why the 1978 1 game playoff (F'ing Dent) counts as regular season, but not the pennant series after it.Andrew said:
Post season stats are like spices. Don't matter how much salt and pepper you put on it, if you're starting with Ramen Noodles, you're still eating Ramen noodles. But if you're starting with a prime cut of steak, the spices can make all the difference.
The post season is part of Ortiz's legend. He's still going to have the prime cut of 500+ HR's and off-the-field ambassador roles to complement his legitimate Hall of Fame career.
The post season is part of Ortiz's legend. He's still going to have the prime cut of 500+ HR's and off-the-field ambassador roles to complement his legitimate Hall of Fame career.
threecy said:
That game counted for the regular season as it decided the regular season standings.
The main reason post season stats don't count for the regular season stats is it can be unfair to those players whose team was not good enough to go to the post season when it comes to the leaderboards and awards. Also, since the post season is against superior competition, its rather unfair for someones career/season averages to be pulled down by including the post season. Most go down, although a few go up. Obviously, all counting stats go up, but they affect rate stats
492 now
8 to go, 44 games. He would need about one every 5-6 games. His career average is one every 4.5 games, last season he hit one every 4 games.
Barring a bad streak he should get there this year. The last 7 games are on the road, before which (Sept 21) they have a 7 game homestand. If he is within 3 at the beginning of that homestand I bet we see him swinging for the fences on most pitches
8 to go, 44 games. He would need about one every 5-6 games. His career average is one every 4.5 games, last season he hit one every 4 games.
Barring a bad streak he should get there this year. The last 7 games are on the road, before which (Sept 21) they have a 7 game homestand. If he is within 3 at the beginning of that homestand I bet we see him swinging for the fences on most pitches
He looks like he's always swinging for the fences to me, not that there's anything wrong with that if you make contact enough.wilked said:
Al Zarilla said:
I've seen him poke a few on 2-strike counts or in important situations lately, but basically on the first two strikes he is looking to go yard every time.
HriniakPosterChild said:
Whatever strategy he is using recently, he should use it all the time. In his last 11 games he is 21 for 42 with 5 doubles, 5 HR, 7 BB, and 14 RBI for those who care about that sort of thing. An OPS north of 1.500.