Ortiz 500 career homers this year?
- Thread starter budcrew08
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He's been on fire for two months now, during which we had people here saying that they wished he would retire.
298/398/619 1.017 OPS in 98 July plate appearances, then 400/466/800 1.266 OPS in 73 August PAs. 13 homers, 24 walks and 23 strikeouts over that time.
So selfish! Too bad he won't retire. I'm sure we're not going to miss him at all when he goes.
298/398/619 1.017 OPS in 98 July plate appearances, then 400/466/800 1.266 OPS in 73 August PAs. 13 homers, 24 walks and 23 strikeouts over that time.
So selfish! Too bad he won't retire. I'm sure we're not going to miss him at all when he goes.
I still do not believe this is sustainable, even in the medium term. The end is near. Best case scenario, he can continue his plus performance and retire before he hits a permanent black hole similar to this spring.
I wonder what has changed, though? Some events coinciding with his surge in performance:
- Pedroia to the DL
- Napoli out of the line up
- Red Sox out of contention
Is he getting better pitches?
I wonder what has changed, though? Some events coinciding with his surge in performance:
- Pedroia to the DL
- Napoli out of the line up
- Red Sox out of contention
Is he getting better pitches?
threecy said:
Why do you think his performance unsustainable? Most of his cold streaks the last few years have been BABIP related. He's still hitting monster home runs, walking more than he strikes out against RHP, and striking out below league average overall.
Career vs RHP: 159 wRC+
2015 vs RHP: 157 wRC+ (10th in the majors)
He struggled mightily against LHPs in the first half of the season, but he's been better lately. Even so it's only 143 PA with a league average strike out rate and a BABIP of .248. Sure he might never be elite against LHP again, but I really don't see any indicators that he's imminently going to turn into a black hole. I don't think any of the things you listed have anything to do with his recent tear. He's just a good hitter who's on a hot streak and has always hit better after April and May.
Of course the end is near, he'll be 40 in November. But the end may not be imminent. And since 2009, David has generally been a slow starter.threecy said:
I suspect Ortiz will continue to be a valuable hitter until his next significant injury. And at 40, it becomes more likely that any injury is significant. But if he stays healthy in 2016, he'll make most of his PA incentives and be back to cash out in 2017.
WenZink said:
Except in 2012 and 2013 when he started red hot.
And I guess his April OPS wasn't too bad this year either, at .782, or last year at .798... and in 2011 it was .768 - not great, but certainly not bad. Okay, maybe it's bad compared with God-Mode Ortiz. I wouldn't call those years slow starts though.
Ortiz had bad (horrific) starts in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Since then, he's had three solid, but unspectacular Aprils and two scorching hot Aprils.
How about this? Since 2009, David Ortiz has posted a sub-.750 monthly OPS four times: April 2009, May 2009, April 2010, May 2015.
Edit: And just for fun - Mike Trout has a .569 OPS this month. Alex Rodriguez has a .493 OPS. Paul Goldschmidt checks in at .671. Great players have bad months sometimes.
WenZink said:
The bolded is what is concerning. Maybe it would be reason enough to stand pat with trading bats this winter (i.e. Panda, Hanley) that could be slotted at DH should it be a long term injury.
turnthe2 said:
When we got Ramirez, I pretty much assumed the point was to have him replace Ortiz at DH at some point. After all, we were going to have to replace Napoli, too and it didn't look like there was much in the way of hitters coming from the high minors.
We're a year later and a number of things have happened that impact the situation.
Ramirez has proved an absolute butcher in the field. He can probably get better, but it's unlikely he can get good.
Allen Craig has provided ample demonstration that he is, in fact, toast.
Travis Shaw has given us an indication that he might be more than just a guy.
Sam Travis has hit AA and is still hitting.
Castillo and Bradley have shown some indication that they are legitimately major league players.
David Ortiz has demonstrated that he's not done yet.
There's a lot of things there that we'd love to have a higher confidence level in, but I think there's a better chance to find an in house, non Hanley Ramirez DH than there was at the end of 2014. Heck, a year from now, we might be talking about bringing Margot up and rotating Bets, Bradley, Castillo, and Margot through the DH spot to put a little less wear and tear on each of them.
Fangraphs projects him to hit 8 more home runs this season, which would have it happening in New York or Cleveland. Of course, continuing at this torrid pace could change the math a bit.
Rasputin said:
Although I'm in general agreement with your points, if they move Hanley this winter and subsidize 40% of his salary, and then Ortiz ruptures his achilles in ST, the same folks that have been calling for Hanley's exile will be all over Dombrowski for screwing it up.
I'm also curious as to what the Red Sox internal analytics have to say about Hanley's defense and rate of improvement. They must have some analyst-serf charting every play to LF and have a definite number as opposed to the standard metrics. Of course, it could show he's even worse, but their continued commitment to Hanley tells me otherwise.
WenZink said:
There's risk with everything and the nattering nabobs will always use hindsight to be correct whatever happens.
If we trade Hanley, Papi might suffer a career ending injury.
If we don't trade Hanley, we run the risk that he's a defensive liability everywhere, and that the recent decline in offense is permanent for some reason we don't yet know about.
Rasputin said:
There are risks and there are risks. I'd say there's a 1 in 3 chance that our 40 year old DH goes down to a significant injury in 2016. I'd also estimate there's a 1 in 20 chance that Mookie Betts, a converted infielder, runs into one too many walls the wrong way, and suffers serious concussion problems that hurt his season and career.
One risk you plan on, the other you just cross your fingers.
WenZink said:
Ortiz has shown remarkable durability. 2012 was the exception in the past 5 years.
Yes, the injury risk does increase with each passing year...no argument there...but I'm not sure the odds of a major Ortiz injury is as high as 1 in 3. I suppose eventually there is going to be a year when Ortiz is not our best hitter.
I suspect, based on what we know about defensive statistics, that statistics are not the proper lens through which to make a decision as to whether and how much a player is improving defensively over the course of their first season at a new position (or, really, any season). This is almost certainly a question best answered by more traditional tools like the observations of the teams scouts and coaching staff.WenZink said:
Don't forget that the Red Sox have access to Statcast, which will give them data on his reaction time and route efficiency over time.JakeRae said:
I don't think that's the risk. If he goes down, they get another bat in the line up.WenZink said:
The risk is when his hitting falls off a cliff again and stays there. Then you go from having an elite bat in the line up to having a major liability in the line up, as well as potential clubhouse issues (he does have a history of being vocal when he doesn't get what he wants, mainly contract related).
threecy said:
But it's not likely for Ortiz' hitting to go off the cliff. His OPS+ is very much in line with his post-peak years of 2003-2007. Ortiz is not Mike Napoli. He's one of the best hitters in the game. He was smart enough to adapt to the expanding strike zone. Worrying that Ortiz is going to go from being the Sox best hitter to one of their worst at the stroke of midnight is just being neurotic. If he stays healthy, what might happen is that his cold streaks will be a little longer and his hot streaks will be a little shorter. If he stays healthy, we'll be seeing David through 2017, and maybe even have to endure some whining about about an extension during ST 2017.
The risk is that his body just gives out, and the Sox will be struggling to replace the most important part of their lineup in the middle of the season.
You do understand that he's turning 40?WenZink said:
It was pretty scary when the anchor of the lineup had an OPS sitting at .670 in mid June.
He's been on a tear lately, but he's still OPS+ing 81 against LHP. Not a good sign at this stage.
threecy said:
40 is not a cliff, it's just a point on a slope that trends downhill.
And if Ortiz L/R splits continue, it's easier to mitigate his decline since it's isolated. Look at Ted Williams's platoon splits in has last 3 years when he was 39-40-41. They just sat him more vs lefties. The issue then becomes how to deal with David when a manager wants to pinch hit for him or sit him vs a LHP. If Ortiz is still productive in 2016, my advice would be the Sox to just tear up the vesting process contract and guarantee him some deal for his 2017 finale.
Ortiz and Napoli had very different strike zones to begin with. Ortiz used to have strikes called in the right handed batter's box. I haven't seen data on it, but I bet if anything Ortiz has benefitted from the changing strike zone.WenZink said:
Dude, we get it. At some point he will stop being productive and you will be right.
Other dudes, stop arguing with threecy. He is literally not going to change a single thing about his argument no matter what is said.
Thread locks the next threecy post or response to one. No joke. This is fucking stupid.
Other dudes, stop arguing with threecy. He is literally not going to change a single thing about his argument no matter what is said.
Thread locks the next threecy post or response to one. No joke. This is fucking stupid.
Interesting bit of trivia: Ortiz is one of five players in baseball history to hit at least 20 HR in every year of his thirties. Can you name the other four?
He is also one of 10 players to hit 300+ total HR in his thirties. Four of them are the same guys as above. Can you name the other five?
Bonds, Palmeiro, Aaron, Ruth
He is also one of 10 players to hit 300+ total HR in his thirties. Four of them are the same guys as above. Can you name the other five?
Mays, Schmidt, McGwire, Sosa, Thome
I remember a year or two ago discussing whether he'd ever make it and there was a lot of doubt. Barring a career ending injury, I'd say there's no way he doesn't make it. And he might even make it this year.
He's been amazing.
He's been amazing.
TFisNEXT said:
Has anyone ever shown a study comparing frequency (not sure if that is the best measure) of injuries caused by batting and running the bases (i.e. being a hitter) vs those caused by fielding? It's certainly intuitive that playing the filed would subject one to greater risk of injury, but I wonder how great.
Because unlike Ted Williams and almost every other player (with the exception of Edgar Martinez), all of the other players who have had decent runs past their age 38 year were field players. Ortiz' somewhat unique usage of almost 100% (minus games at NL parks) may make him a pretty significant outlier on the injury risk scale.
Ortiz OPS by month:
April - .782
May - .624
June - .815
July - 1.017
July - 1.114
That's some serious trending. Since the start of the 2nd half, Ortiz's 185 wRC+ ranks 6th in baseball, trailing only Votto, Encarnacion, Brantley, Cruz and Donaldson. Despite the DH ding, his 2nd half WAR of 1.8 is 21st in baseball among position players. The man is an ageless wonder it seems.
April - .782
May - .624
June - .815
July - 1.017
July - 1.114
That's some serious trending. Since the start of the 2nd half, Ortiz's 185 wRC+ ranks 6th in baseball, trailing only Votto, Encarnacion, Brantley, Cruz and Donaldson. Despite the DH ding, his 2nd half WAR of 1.8 is 21st in baseball among position players. The man is an ageless wonder it seems.
I thought he had no chance heading into the season, but good God it seems unavoidable at this point that he reaches 500 before the end of the year. Five to go in a month which will likely feature teams playing out the string and using 40 man roster call ups seems inevitable. Let's hope it's on the last home stand, but at this rate, he may not last that long unless he sits a bit on the next road trip. Though with eight more at home after tonight it might not even take that long.
I tried not to key on this too much - at the beginning of the month I said "if he gets within 5 by the end of August - then it gets interesting". Damned if he didn't do it. Now I'm all in. Going to check in on at bats, even if it means 2 AM wake up calls. Going to get pissed if he's cheated out of at bats by people swinging at bad pitches in front of him. Curse at pitchers who pitch around him. Will the wind to blow out. The man is must see TV, a craftsman, an icon, the kind of guy you tell your kids to watch because you won't see too many like him. This is now, officially, fun.
Father Time will eventually overtake Big Papi in this race, but damn - I want David to just keep going as long as he can.
This streak has to be helping his HoF case. He isn't just plodding along, methodically collecting dingers here and there while the rest of his game declines - he is absolutely on fire right now and I can see this stretch being remembered by the voters when the time comes to debate his candidacy.
If he doesn't get No. 500 during the last homestead of the year, I hope he hits in Yankee Stadium. In a Red Sox win as the Boston spoilers take three out of four and the MFY's fall out of the second wild-card spot :devillol:
This streak has to be helping his HoF case. He isn't just plodding along, methodically collecting dingers here and there while the rest of his game declines - he is absolutely on fire right now and I can see this stretch being remembered by the voters when the time comes to debate his candidacy.
If he doesn't get No. 500 during the last homestead of the year, I hope he hits in Yankee Stadium. In a Red Sox win as the Boston spoilers take three out of four and the MFY's fall out of the second wild-card spot :devillol:
Or, alternatively, it's the game-winning RBI in the last game of the season....which the Sox come into, after a killer September, with a record of 80-81.Ferm Sheller said:
500 for .500!
He might have two more seasons in him, which would give him 15 as a Red Sox. 550 dingers is certainly possible.
OTOH, there are stories about pitchers grooving balls to Mickey Mantle, for example, when he was going for 500, or maybe in his last few games. Is there also a tale about Williams getting a grooved pitch for #521 in his last game in 1960?sheamonu said:
FWIW, for those interested in Papi's HOF chances, his Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor score is now 138. Among guys who are eligible (ie, excluding recent retirees like Jeter), here's the list of guys ahead of him who aren't in:
Barry Bonds - 340
Pete Rose - 311
Mike Piazza - 207
Sammy Sosa - 202
Rafael Palmeiro - 178
Mark McGwire - 170
Gary Sheffield - 158
Jeff Bagwell - 150
Larry Walker - 148
So, a list of guys who've pissed off the purists (steroids or gambling), plus Piazza, Sheffield, Bagwell and Walker. Piazza and Bagwell will almost certainly get in, Walker probably won't but his #s are inflated by Coors. Sheffield is an interesting one, as he has 500 HRs, but also has been indirectly implicated in PED use like Papi. As such, he only has 12% of the vote in his first year. Not impossible to make it starting that low, but certainly a long way to go.
Now, if Ortiz can somehow manage to keep up close to what he has for another two years and approach 525-550 HRs, I don't think even the DH / PED inferences will be enough to keep him out.
Barry Bonds - 340
Pete Rose - 311
Mike Piazza - 207
Sammy Sosa - 202
Rafael Palmeiro - 178
Mark McGwire - 170
Gary Sheffield - 158
Jeff Bagwell - 150
Larry Walker - 148
So, a list of guys who've pissed off the purists (steroids or gambling), plus Piazza, Sheffield, Bagwell and Walker. Piazza and Bagwell will almost certainly get in, Walker probably won't but his #s are inflated by Coors. Sheffield is an interesting one, as he has 500 HRs, but also has been indirectly implicated in PED use like Papi. As such, he only has 12% of the vote in his first year. Not impossible to make it starting that low, but certainly a long way to go.
Now, if Ortiz can somehow manage to keep up close to what he has for another two years and approach 525-550 HRs, I don't think even the DH / PED inferences will be enough to keep him out.
One thing that might help push him over the line is that Ortiz has more World Series rings than everybody on that list not named Pete Rose put together.jscola85 said:
... and Sheffield did NOT have a good relationship with the media. He was an underrated hitter though, somehow.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Yeah, his postseason performance in those World Series definitely should help, as will his long tenure in a big media market like Boston. It's an intangible, but the "personality" of Papi probably gives him an edge over the likes of Edgar Martinez, etc. It's important to note that the guys just below him are kind of fringey - guys like Don Mattingly, Albert Belle, Bernie Williams, Edgar Martinez, Steve Garvey, etc.
Another season close to this one would likely add 6-8 points to his score and put him more comfortably in the range of HOF locks (PED-users/Pete Rose excluded).
Wake's knuckle said:
I was surprised at Sheffield's career numbers. Winding up with 300 more walks than K's is really, really impressive. Career 140 OPS+ (as a comparison Manny is 154). Would be interesting to see if he ever got in what cap he would wear. I guess the Marlins? He was only there 6 years but did win a WS; that said, he had more HRs in just 4 years with the Dodgers and a higher OPS, and came closest to winning an MVP while he was in pinstripes. Pretty much the definition of a career hired gun.
Wake's knuckle said:
Goddamn was he terrifying, though. You could try to pitch around him and he could still hit it nine thousand feet.
The thing with Ortiz is this. If he gets 500 this year, and has another ho hum, I'll hit 30 homers at 40 year, he'll finish just 49 shy of Ted Williams.
That woul take who more healthy seasons, but if he does it at 40 do you see him stepping aside?
I just want Orsillo to make the call for Papi's 500th, as a parting gift.
The nice guy in me wants Orsillo to have that honor for years of service.
The SOB in me wants NESN to have to cue up Orsillo's voice every time there's a celebratory montage about Big Papi.
The nice guy in me wants Orsillo to have that honor for years of service.
The SOB in me wants NESN to have to cue up Orsillo's voice every time there's a celebratory montage about Big Papi.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
as if they wouldn't just sync it up with O'Brien's radio call as soon as possible.
jscola85 said:
Here's a list of designated hitters in the Hall of Fame:
Edgar or David has to be the first; the other will likely follow. But there's going to be a lot of "conversations" in the media before then.
Frank Thomas? Paul Molitor played more games at DH than anywhere else also - tho Thomas is the only HOFer with more than half their games as DH.
