The Athletic's Jeff Howe put a piece out a few days ago which reinforces your position that, based on drafts since 2000, franchise QBs drafted outside the 1st round are exceedingly rare. But the data may also indicate, depending how you feel about WCAV, the odds that a team picking in R1 will end up with a bust or below-average QB aren't as scary high.I took a look at QB's drafted in the first 2 rounds over the last 8 years. You can reach some interesting conclusions
Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick 2012 Andrew Luck 1 2013 E.J. Manuel 16 2014 Blake Bortles 3 Robert Griffin III 2 Geno Smith 40 Johnny Manziel 22 Ryan Tannehill 8 Teddy Bridewater 32 Branden Weeden 22 Derek Carr 36 Brock Osweiler 57 Jimmy Garropolo 62 Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick 2015 Jameis Winston 1 2016 Jared Goff 1 2017 Mitch Trubisky 2 Marcus Mariota 2 Carson Wentz 2 Patrick Mahomes 10 Paxton Lynch 26 DeShon Kizer 52 Chris Hackenberg 52 Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick 2018 Baker Mayfield 1 2019 Kyle Murray 1 2020 Joe Burrow 1 Sam Darnold 3 Daniel Jones 6 Tua Tagliavoa 5 Josh Allen 7 Dwayne Haskins 15 Justin Herbert 6 Lamar Jackson 32 Drew Lock 42 Kyle Love 26 Jaylen Hurts 53
If you want to get a franchise QB, do you have have a fairly high draft pick? It seems so. None of the 2nd round selections have managed to have any significant impact with the exception of Jimmy G and that jury is still out. Indeed the QBs that have had significant success (Luck, Mayfield, Tannehill, Allen, Mahomes, ) have all been picked inside the top 10. Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson are slight outliers at 32 and 36.
If you have a top pick does that insure you'll likely get a franchise QB? Doesn't seem that way. The bust % is very high considering the capital spent. Branden Weeden, EJ Manuel, RG III and Blake Bortles must haunt their draft rooms.
Looking good are Herbert, Tua, Murray, but time will tell.
The Pats aren't getting into the top 5 unless they mortgage their future and that risk is enhanced by the likelihood that there is great bust potential even in that rarified atmosphere. Do you want to go all in on Trey Lance when the needs of this roster are so multiple. I don't. I just don't see BB rebuilding in this fashion. Rather, I expect him to trade down the board frequently to acquire as many assets as possible, giving him a chance to take multiple swings in a WR rich draft and to draft more than one LB. Lots to fix here and you cant do that by taking a expensive flyer.
First round: 53 QBs
Category | Number | % of First-Rounders |
1st team All-Pros | 5 | 9.4% |
Pro Bowlers | 24 | 45.3% |
WCAV ≥ 90 | 11 | 20.8% |
WCAV ≤ 30 | 18 | 34.0% |
< 20 starts | 6 | 11.3% |
Second round: 20 QBs
Category | Number | % of 2nd-Rounders |
1st team All-Pros | 1 | 5.0% |
Pro Bowlers | 3 | 15.0% |
WCAV ≥ 90 | 1 | 5.0% |
WCAV ≤ 30 | 16 | 80.0% |
< 20 starts | 8 | 40% |
And so on down the rounds.
On the other hand, Howe's been campaigning for a trade up to pick Lance so he may be cherry-picking to support that stance.