Philip Rivers: Hall of Famer?

Does Philip Rivers deserve to be enshrined?

  • Yes, if he retired tomorrow

  • Yes, but only if he has a couple more good seasons

  • No, unless he wins a ring

  • No


Results are only viewable after voting.

luckiestman

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I have no problem with Phil making the HoF. QB is by far the most valuable position. If Hines Ward can potentially make the museum, it doesn’t make sense to me that Phil Rivers can’t. I start a franchise, I’m taking Phil 10 times out of 10 over him.
 

Al Zarilla

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I have no problem with Phil making the HoF. QB is by far the most valuable position. If Hines Ward can potentially make the museum, it doesn’t make sense to me that Phil Rivers can’t. I start a franchise, I’m taking Phil 10 times out of 10 over him.
So, you’re on a first name basis of Phil with Rivers? :)

That game he had last week v Dallas was phenomenal.
 

mauf

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Breaking this out of yesterday’s game thread and adding a poll.

By the way, Fouts was 2nd all-time in career passing yards (behind Tarkenton) when he retired, so while I might buy that he’s overrated, that’s more in terms of him being a mundane HOFer instead of being a ring away from being in the GOAT discussion, which I know is how some people perceive him. He’s still a cut above Rivers, who I think we all agree is a borderline case.
 

mauf

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I have no problem with Phil making the HoF. QB is by far the most valuable position. If Hines Ward can potentially make the museum, it doesn’t make sense to me that Phil Rivers can’t. I start a franchise, I’m taking Phil 10 times out of 10 over him.
By this standard, there would be no offensive linemen in Canton. I mean, Anthony Munoz might have been the best LT of all time, but Sam Wyche would’ve rather lost Munoz for the season than Boomer Esiason, who obviously isn’t even a serious candidate for Canton.
 

KiltedFool

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anyone else unable to read anything about Rivers these days without mentally flashing back to those hysterical fake facebook QB conversations from a few years ago?
 

BuellMiller

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I think that's a little debatable. Both Munoz and Esiason had similar peaks (e.g. both put up 19 AVs in one season according to pfref), but Munoz was more consistent throughout. If you're talking about just 1988, yeah, i guess you'd take Boomer. But if you have a top draft pick in the hypothetical draft that luckiestman was suggesting and both are rookies and you get their careers, I'd take Munoz, and I think most would too. (Obviously it depends on a lot of other factors about that draft, especially positional scarcity, etc, but all things equal, I'd go with Munoz).
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Rivers is basically a better Eli Manning, who has not had the fortune of an all world defensive line to deliver him two Super Bowls or an NFL pedigree family that's all over the media. Rivers is a year younger though they came out in the same draft obviously, and Rivers took over the starting job a full year later.

Rivers:
187 Starts, 102-85, 4,052 Completions, 48,781 Yards, 334 TDs, 163 INTs, 64.3% Comp %, 94.8 QB Rating, 6 Pro Bowls, 4-5 Playoff Record
Eli:
210 Starts, 110-100, 4,319 Completions, 50,625 Yards, 334 TDs, 222 INTs, 59.8% Comp %, 83.8 QB Rating, 4 Pro Bowls, 8-4 Playoff Record

If Eli does choose to retire after this season, then Rivers will almost certainly pass him next year in all the major categories except playoff accomplishments. I don't think either of them should be in the HOF based on current accomplishments, I think despite ending in the top 10 in the major categories there's been too much QB stat inflation in this era. But if Rivers plays another two seasons close to where he's been this season, he'd end up around:

118-120 wins (8th) (going ~.500 for 35 more games which is harder to predict than rate stats)
59,000 Yards (6th)
4,850 Completions (6th)
400 TDs (6th)

I think those numbers would certainly get him in.
 

rodderick

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And to answer the thread title: no, he isn't. For a guy to reach the HoF based on cumulative stats in an era in which passing has exploded, he needs to be a transformational, Dan Marino/Dan Fouts kind of player. Phillip Rivers isn't that.

Someone in the thread called him the Dan Fouts of his generation, but I disagree with the comparison. Fouts was throwing for 4k yards in an era in which that accomplishment was rare and he was first team All-Pro twice. He ran an offense that influenced how the passing game was played for generations.
 

BaseballJones

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Pretty great career, when all is said and done. Pretty good 39-year-old season too: 68%, 4,169 yds, 24 td, 11 int, 97.0 rating, leading his team to an 11-5 record a year after they went 7-9.

He doesn't have tons of accomplishments. No conference championships, never mind SB victories. 8x a pro-bowler, but never an all-pro. Never an MVP. But he was a really good, very tough, competitive player who played at a high level for a very long time. Not sure he's a Hall of Famer, but on counting stats, he just might be.

He leaves the game with the following career rankings:

- 5th in completions
- 5th in passing yards
- 5th in touchdown passes
- 12th in passer rating
- 14th in passing yards per game
- 10th in passing yards per attempt
- 11th in career AV

So does that make him a Hall of Famer? I dunno. Maybe? I don't think so but maybe he gets in.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm agnostic on Rivers for the HOF. I think you can make a decent case either way. Gun to my head, I probably say no in a vacuum but given that Eli is a few years away from getting in after having a much, MUCH worse career, I'm fine with Rivers getting in as well. Ultimately, I put Rivers in the Matt Ryan category of QBs of being right on the border of HOF worthiness.
 

tims4wins

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He was an objectively better player than Eli Manning. But the lack of postseason success will kill his chances. I'd obviously vote no on Eli, but I'd also vote no on Rivers.
 

Oppo

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Is he more deserving than the top 1-2 players at other positions over the last 2 decades? No
 

BaseballJones

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Ok since we are talking HOF....imagine the inner circle HOFers at whatever position being the "Mount Rushmore" - top 4 guys represent that inner circle. Then there's the next level of say, 10 guys, and then there's the rest of the HOFers, and then the "Hall of Very Good", etc.

Mount Rushmore
Brady
Montana
Peyton
Unitas

Next Group
Graham
Marino
Tarkenton
Starr
Staubach
Elway
Favre
Baugh
Rodgers
Brees

HOFers
(won't list them)

Hall of Very Good
Eli
Rivers
Ryan
Cunningham
Zorn
(and a bunch more)
 

DJnVa

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Pretty great career, when all is said and done. Pretty good 39-year-old season too: 68%, 4,169 yds, 24 td, 11 int, 97.0 rating, leading his team to an 11-5 record a year after they went 7-9.

He doesn't have tons of accomplishments. No conference championships, never mind SB victories. 8x a pro-bowler, but never an all-pro. Never an MVP. But he was a really good, very tough, competitive player who played at a high level for a very long time. Not sure he's a Hall of Famer, but on counting stats, he just might be.

He leaves the game with the following career rankings:

- 5th in completions
- 5th in passing yards
- 5th in touchdown passes
- 12th in passer rating
- 14th in passing yards per game
- 10th in passing yards per attempt
- 11th in career AV

So does that make him a Hall of Famer? I dunno. Maybe? I don't think so but maybe he gets in.
Those numbers are good, but he's likely going to fall pretty significantly down those lists unless the game undergoes a massive change.
 

Oppo

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Unfortunately, he overlapped with no doubters (Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers, less overlap but also guys like Favre/Warner early on). Then he’s in a group of long tenured very good QBs (Eli/Ben/Ryan) but 2 of those have multi-SB wins. And even at the end he had to play against the above QBs plus the next gen (Mahommes, Watson, Wilson, etc).
Very very good career but no HoF.
 

BaseballJones

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Those numbers are good, but he's likely going to fall pretty significantly down those lists unless the game undergoes a massive change.
For sure. But you can't judge a player based on who will pass him. You kind of have to go by what he accomplished during his time. Not by what others coming after him may end up doing.
 

rodderick

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For sure. But you can't judge a player based on who will pass him. You kind of have to go by what he accomplished during his time. Not by what others coming after him may end up doing.
Yeah, but what he accomplished during his time was significantly influenced by the rules and passing environment of his era and guys that entered the league after him playing under those same rules will surpass him pretty quickly. It's one thing for Favre to throw for 71k yards playing most of his career in basically the same passing environment as Elway, Marino and Montana, it's another for Rivers to throw for 63k in a league in which 12 QBs threw for over 4k yards and Jameis Winston can go for 5k. Passing was pretty much stable from 1980-2003 and in the last 10 years especially it's gone completely out of whack.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah, but what he accomplished during his time was significantly influenced by the rules and passing environment of his era and guys that entered the league after him playing under those same rules will surpass him pretty quickly. It's one thing for Favre to throw for 71k yards playing most of his career in basically the same passing environment as Elway, Marino and Montana, it's another for Rivers to throw for 63k in a league in which 12 QBs threw for over 4k yards and Jameis Winston can go for 5k.
Agreed. This is the biggest reason why I don't think he will get in. Compared to NFL history, his career numbers are tremendous. Compared to his PEERS, in the era in which he played...they're not quite as impressive. Still impressive, but not HOF-worth, IMO.

But longevity does matter, and he played well for a very long time, and that definitely counts for something. I think zero all-pros, zero conference or SB championships...those things matter too.
 

Hoya81

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I think he'll get in eventually. He seems well liked by most of the NFL writers I follow and that certainly goes a long way.
 

tims4wins

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For some reason the comparison that pops into my head is actually Jim Kelly. Of course Kelly played in the USFL for a bit, and he had more success than Rivers in the playoffs, but he obviously never won a title. It's hard to me to justify having one of these two in the HoF, and having that be Kelly, given that Rivers played longer in the NFL. Do the 4 conference titles really weigh that much?

Compare these rate stats, averaged for their careers:

Y/A+
Kelly 112, Rivers 114

NY/A+
Kelly 111, Rivers 115

AY/A+
Kelly 110, Rivers 112

ANY/A+
Kelly 109, Rivers 113

Comp %+
Kelly 112, Rivers 110

TD%+
Kelly 112, Rivers 110

INT%+
Kelly 98, Rivers 101

Sack%+
Kelly 104, Rivers 107

Rate+
Kelly 111, Rivers 111
 

lexrageorge

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He's right on the borderline, IMO. Going for him is his 63K total yards, 95.2 overall rating, and that he did lead the league once in overall yards/attempt and in total passing yards.

Hurting him is his 5-7 post-season record and only one AFCCG appearance. And he will be in roughly the same cohort as Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Peyton Manning, all of whom will get in. The good news is that 4 of them are surefire first ballot inductees. Roethlisberger, however, may take a few turns on the ballot, and Rivers will then also be competing with Eli, Matt Ryan, and maybe even Tony Romo (who will not get in, but could be one of the 15 that makes the ballot one year).
 

Cellar-Door

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I think he should be but may not be. He straddled the era change and the lack of a ring will hurt him. On the other hand he was much better (even for his time) than guys who are in (Namath, Stabler) and you can make good cases that he's as good or better than a handful of others (Elway, Tarkenton, Favre)
 
Philip Rivers never played in the Super Bowl, never sniffed an MVP award and never made an All-Pro team - those are three important categories in which Matt Ryan has him beat, if you're thinking about which of those two is more likely to reach the Hall of Fame first. (I'm not sure Matty Ice is a Hall of Famer, but I certainly think he's going to be better qualified at the end of his career for that honor than Rivers is.)
 

BigSoxFan

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Philip Rivers never played in the Super Bowl, never sniffed an MVP award and never made an All-Pro team - those are three important categories in which Matt Ryan has him beat, if you're thinking about which of those two is more likely to reach the Hall of Fame first. (I'm not sure Matty Ice is a Hall of Famer, but I certainly think he's going to be better qualified at the end of his career for that honor than Rivers is.)
Counter point:

Rivers has never blown a 25 point 3rd quarter SB lead...

(ducks)

Jokes aside, Ryan’s peak was higher. Rivers never had the season he had in 2016. But the rest of their careers are pretty similar, IMO. Rivers made twice as many Pro Bowls. He had 5 seasons of 100+ ratings compared to 2 for Ryan.

You can obviously cut these QB stats a million different ways but I think they both belong in the same group. Career ratings are very similar. In an arbitrary world where Rivers is competing directly with Ryan, I would give Ryan the bump because of the 2016 season. That should matter. I’m also a BC grad so I would have given Matty the tiebreaker even if he had Eli career stats.
 

bankshot1

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It took me years to appreciate River's quirkiness and short-arm throws, but he was tenacious and usually fun to watch. I think he's a borderline guy. And if not for his being in the same conference with Brady, Peyton, and Ben (all HoF locks) he probably plays in the SB and maybe he snags a ring.
 

Cellar-Door

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Philip Rivers never played in the Super Bowl, never sniffed an MVP award and never made an All-Pro team - those are three important categories in which Matt Ryan has him beat, if you're thinking about which of those two is more likely to reach the Hall of Fame first. (I'm not sure Matty Ice is a Hall of Famer, but I certainly think he's going to be better qualified at the end of his career for that honor than Rivers is.)
It's an interesting question of individual vs. Team performance, and peak vs. consistency. Ryan has the best single year. Rivers probably has 5 of the next 6 between the two. Rivers was higher up the league ranks most years.
However, I think Ryan passes him assuming 3-5 more years of above league average performance.

Rivers is going to be a test case on 2 things:
1. The HOF generally hasn't held a lack of team success against guys much, will that still apply to QBs
2. Is the HOF going to tighten up in anticipation of future classes? Rivers' league adjusted numbers make him pretty solidly a lower end HOFer based on who is already in, but is the bar about to slide up?
 

Kliq

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I don't think he is a Hall of Fame player, but it wouldn't be an affront to the HoF if he got in. I wouldn't be so sure that he is going to fall back in the statistical categories; yes it is a more pass friendly era but Rivers was incredibly durable, he started 240 straight games and had 12 seasons of 4,000+ passing yards. Today might be a more passing era, but it also seems to also require a more athletic QB, which may make it difficult for them to sustain success for such a long period of time due to injury.

He is also 12th all-time in career Approximate Value, tied with Marino at 216. Only Brady, Brees, Manning, Favre and Tarkenton are QBs ahead of himm.
 

bankshot1

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I think the interesting HoF question is, how many HoF QBs does the HoF voters think there are in the 2004 draft class.

and fwiw I use Marino as my bogey for passing stats and discount yards by about 15-20% for guys playing in the current pass-friendly era.
 

rodderick

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I think the interesting HoF question is, how many HoF QBs does the HoF voters think there are in the 2004 draft class.

and fwiw I use Marino as my bogey for passing stats and discount yards by about 15-20% for guys playing in the current pass-friendly era.
Out of those guys I'd vote Ben in and that's it, but I believe all of them will eventually get in (I mean, as long as we're enshrining Eli Manning might as well give JP Losman a bust).
 

Rudy's Curve

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He was probably the best QB in the league from '08-10. His lack of playoff success will hurt him, but he's got a pretty underrated peak to go along with the longevity.
 

DJnVa

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For sure. But you can't judge a player based on who will pass him. You kind of have to go by what he accomplished during his time. Not by what others coming after him may end up doing.
You absolutely can, especially when his career coincided with a major change in the way the game is played and he's going to be seen not as an all-time great as soon as others catch up.

Do you know who Lip Pike is? He is one of only 9 people in the history of MLB to be the all-time career HR leader. He's not a HOFer because of it though.

That said, his numbers are pretty good, and if they could be combined with some postseason success, that would be different. You give Eli Manning his stats he's a no-doubt guy. Once he became the starter in 2006 he started EVERY SINGLE GAME the rest of his career.
 

bankshot1

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Out of those guys I'd vote Ben in and that's it, but I believe all of them will eventually get in (I mean, as long as we're enshrining Eli Manning might as well give JP Losman a bust).
Agreed, Ben's a lock. Eli's not a HoF QB, but he's got the rings.

It will take Archie and Peyton begging the HoF to let Eli in and even then it might take a few shots.
 

DJnVa

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Philip Rivers never played in the Super Bowl, never sniffed an MVP award and never made an All-Pro team - t
For the record, profootballreference.com considers multiple All-Pro designations, including Pro Football Focus's All-Pro team. Rivers made 1st team in 2009 and 2nd team in 2013.

I present that more as informational as opposed to countering your argument.
 

bakahump

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He did play against Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Ben. Pretty tough company for those complaining he didnt make end of year teams.
 

DJnVa

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He did play against Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Ben. Pretty tough company for those complaining he didnt make end of year teams.
At some point though, that's just tough luck. His HOF plaque can't say "Almost made All-Pro but there were better players."
 

ShaneTrot

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I have always enjoyed the fact that he was 0-8 vs Brady. He was atrocious in the 2006 divisional game vs the Pats. As a Pats fan were you ever afraid to face Rivers?
 

bakahump

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My comment was SPECIFIC to End of year teams. And the Argument "Yea he had stats but no playoff wins and Few End of year honors". Playoff wins he is indefensible. But end of year teams....

I see what your saying but Thats like saying "I mean Al Simmons is good, but he never led the league in HRs. Its telling that Ruth, Gerhig, Wilson and Hornsby was better."

I mean Brady is Goat, Manning, Rodgers and Brees are probably 3 of the next 4 all time. And if you dont measure up to them but basically beat (or on par with) everyone else in every other catagory (except Playoff wins) "Its telling"? Tough crowd.

I mean he may not reach HOF standards but to say its because he isnt as good as Brady Brees, Rodgers and Manning is kinda disingenuous.
 

DourDoerr

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I have always enjoyed the fact that he was 0-8 vs Brady. He was atrocious in the 2006 divisional game vs the Pats. As a Pats fan were you ever afraid to face Rivers?
With the Pats in mind, I considered Rivers the QB equivalent of Pittsburgh's Shampoo Guy. Great player but could be exploited. It seemed like Rivers was a very rich man's Ryan Fitzpatrick and you could count on him to just chuck it up a time or two. Some of those Chargers teams were stacked - 11 Pro Bowlers in 2006.
 

rodderick

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My comment was SPECIFIC to End of year teams. And the Argument "Yea he had stats but no playoff wins and Few End of year honors". Playoff wins he is indefensible. But end of year teams....

I see what your saying but Thats like saying "I mean Al Simmons is good, but he never led the league in HRs. Its telling that Ruth, Gerhig, Wilson and Hornsby was better."

I mean Brady is Goat, Manning, Rodgers and Brees are probably 3 of the next 4 all time. And if you dont measure up to them but basically beat (or on par with) everyone else in every other catagory (except Playoff wins) "Its telling"? Tough crowd.

I mean he may not reach HOF standards but to say its because he isnt as good as Brady Brees, Rodgers and Manning is kinda disingenuous.
There are all time great QBs in every single decade, and yeah, those are the guys that belong in the Hall of Fame, generally. When Dave Krieg retired he was 6th in TD passes and 8th in yards, was anyone making a HoF case for him because it'd be unfair to compare him to Montana/Elway/Marino/Kelly? What about Boomer Esiason? Retired 9th in yards and TDs, made it to a Super Bowl, won an MVP. Should he go in because well, not being among the best QBs of his era was understandable?

In 10 years Rivers will be about 11th in all time passing yards and TDs and people will look back and say "huh, why is he in the HoF again?". Once again, he's played his whole career in a disproportionately passing friendly era, so unless he puts up completely stupid numbers I'm not going to put him up for consideration just based on that. Playing with the same kind of competition Matt Ryan won an MVP and went to a Super Bowl, Eli Manning won 2 Super Bowls, Ben also won 2... these are his peers in the "below Mount Rushmore" group and he falls short in achievements even in comparison to them.

And yes, it is a "tough crowd", it's the Hall of Fame.