QB Play in Washington

mascho

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http://central.sonsofsamhorn.net/nfl/life-after-robert-the-future-of-qb-play-in-washington/
 
On a pleasant Sunday in Landover, Maryland, approximately 80,000 football fans were still settling into their seats when Robert Griffin III attempted a pass on Washington’s second possession. Griffin landed awkwardly on his left ankle, suffering a dislocation, and is expected to be sidelined for at least six weeks. As Washington again turns to third-year backup Kirk Cousins, we took a look at Cousins’ film to highlight what fans in the nation’s capital can expect from the former Michigan State Spartan.
 
 

dcmissle

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This is reminiscent of Bledsoe/Brady and probably career defining for Cousins. He has been in the League a few years, and this is a fair test, as he has weapons and the team is reasonably healthy. If he is mediocre or worse, Cousins is probably looking at a career as a backup. If he is good or better, he will probably force a decision here one way or another and be an NFL starter. All in.
 

mascho

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dcmissle said:
This is reminiscent of Bledsoe/Brady and probably career defining for Cousins. He has been in the League a few years, and this is a fair test, as he has weapons and the team is reasonably healthy. If he is mediocre or worse, Cousins is probably looking at a career as a backup. If he is good or better, he will probably force a decision here one way or another and be an NFL starter. All in.
 
I would agree with all of this. Injury to Bledsoe also happened in Week 2, just like RG3.
 
Cousins will get at least four weeks early in the season to show his worth. They play @ Philly, home against the Giants, home against the Seahawks, and at Arizona. four NFC games, two in the division and one game against the defending Super Bowl Champion. A stern test to be sure, but he has a shot to win this job now.
 

Stitch01

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That interception rate is just not close to acceptable, so he has to get that down.
 
I think his future is as a backup or the Josh McCown/Matt Flynn annual quarterback who gets paid but is actually a terrible starter award winner.  In this case Id still bet on RG III to have a much better career than Cousins (might be better to be out of Washington at this point and he's probably not playing 16 games often)
 
All that said, I think the Skins do OK this week against a banged up Eagles defense.
 

mascho

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Yeah, the INTs are definitely an issue. Part of that (IMO) is the fact that as a back-up, you often have the mindset of "I need to make a play to win the job." Human nature. In the next four weeks or so the job is his, so we'll see if he takes better care of the ball.  
 

Winger 03

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It is kind of a big test for them this week.  While Cousins started 3 games last season, by that point the season was such a shitshow it is hard to really draw any conclusions.  Looking back to 2012 he made a good accounting of himself in the Atlanta game (RGIII concussion) in a loss (with a pick or two), the Baltimore game (RGIII knee) with a nice win capped by a rush for a 2pt conversion to go into OT and in Cleveland (start) where he looked to run more or less the RGIII offense and grind up the Browns pretty well.
 
Can't put much from last week as the Jags are not quite NFL caliber.  So this week gets him a pretty good Redskins team against a pretty good Eagles team in a tough environment.
 
Looking forward to 1pm on Sunday.
 

mascho

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Yeah, the Jacksonville game really isn't worth much in terms of evaluating him. Washington had receivers open all over the field. Even on some of their bigger plays Cousins missed other guys who were open (but it's hard to knock a guy to throwing to one of three receivers with no one around them).
 

soxfan121

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dcmissle said:
This is reminiscent of Bledsoe/Brady and probably career defining for Cousins. He has been in the League a few years, and this is a fair test, as he has weapons and the team is reasonably healthy. If he is mediocre or worse, Cousins is probably looking at a career as a backup. If he is good or better, he will probably force a decision here one way or another and be an NFL starter. All in.
 
An interesting observation but lacking one key component: the contract. Cousins and Griffin were taken in the same draft but in different rounds; Cousins contract expires a year sooner. The extra year for Griffin also increases his value on the trade market, possibly yielding more than he would only one year remaining on his deal. 
 
Suppose Cousins plays like 2001 Tom Brady and leads Washington to the playoffs. What do you do?
 

Stitch01

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If you don't think Griffin is the long-term answer and someone is offering a high pick for Kirk Cousins?  It will never happen, but trade both QB's and use the bounty to acquire a long-term solution.
 

Ed Hillel

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Stitch01 said:
If you don't think Griffin is the long-term answer and someone is offering a high pick for Kirk Cousins?  It will never happen, but trade both QB's and use the bounty to acquire a long-term solution.
 
I wonder about a team like Miami offering a second if Cousins plays well over the next month and Tannehill continues to Tannehill. The issue is that I can't see Washington letting him go for a second if he's playing that well, given RGIII's injuries. If he leads the Redskins on a miracle playoff run, I think the answer is simple, you keep Cousins as the starting QB and look to trade RGIII. Teams are no longer crippled by rookie salaries so the biggest issue from a Redskins perspective would potentially be PR, but if Cousins is successful, I don't think fans are going to be so excited about RG3 returning anyway.
 

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Is Kirk Cousins the next Matt Flynn or the next Matt Schaub? (I doubt he's the next TB -- that lightning probably doesn't strike again)
 
RGIII is something else when he can stay on the field, but does his size and his style of play preclude that from ever happening?  His injuries, though very different from Gronk's, are similar to his in the sense that they came about from normal activities within his style of play.
 
Cousins is likelier the safer but less sexy choice.  I think that in this next offseason, one of them gets traded.  
 

Winger 03

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Ed Hillel said:
 
I wonder about a team like Miami offering a second if Cousins plays well over the next month and Tannehill continues to Tannehill. The issue is that I can't see Washington letting him go for a second if he's playing that well, given RGIII's injuries. If he leads the Redskins on a miracle playoff run, I think the answer is simple, you keep Cousins as the starting QB and look to trade RGIII. Teams are no longer crippled by rookie salaries so the biggest issue from a Redskins perspective would potentially be PR, but if Cousins is successful, I don't think fans are going to be so excited about RG3 returning anyway.
 
Heath Shuler / Gus Ferrotte part 2???
 
If Cousins does something during his 4-6-8 weeks whatever that Griffin is out he really forces the hand of Gruden and will once and for all reveal if Snyder is truly in the background.  If Cousins is 3-1, 5-1, 6-2 playing well and gets replaced for Griffin, Snyder had a hand in it.  If not Allen / Gruden are really in charge.
 

dcmissle

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An interesting observation but lacking one key component: the contract. Cousins and Griffin were taken in the same draft but in different rounds; Cousins contract expires a year sooner. The extra year for Griffin also increases his value on the trade market, possibly yielding more than he would only one year remaining on his deal. 
 
Suppose Cousins plays like 2001 Tom Brady and leads Washington to the playoffs. What do you do?
Correct about the contract. They would undoubtedly pick up RGIII's option year unless they deal him next offseason. The problem would be with Cousins, whose contract is up next year, which means you have to deal him after this season.

What I would do if Cousins plays like an 01 Brady depends on what the rest of the team looks like. If they look solid -- and they probably have an improved defense, and undoubtedly have more playmakers - I'd probably deal RGIII and hope to get a 1st round pick.

He is an unquestioned health risk at this point, and he's at least a full season of playing away from being a competent traditional style QB.

As for playing the style he played in 2012 -- forget it. His body will not last, he knows it, which is one of the reasons he wants to go the traditional route.
 

Stitch01

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Who is giving a first for him for one season if he's not going to play a competent QB for that season?
 

dcmissle

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Stitch01 said:
Who is giving a first for him for one season if he's not going to play a competent QB for that season?
The trade would occur after this season. The acquiring team would have 2015 and an option for 2016.
 

Ed Hillel

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dcmissle said:
The trade would occur after this season. The acquiring team would have 2015 and an option for 2016.
 
Right, but would you rather trade for 2 seasons of RG3 and his one leg or draft Jameis Winston for 5 seasons? Obviously, that could change depending on when Jameis comes off the board, but I'd have to think many teams are going to evaluate that there are better options at QB with a first round pick. Maybe someone gives up a second, but I'd wager a third is more likely.
 

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If Chipadelphia could get their hands on RGIII it would be worth a first. I don't know if there are any other teams that have the need and the ability to get the most out of RGIII. Edit: Maybe Houston?
 
Why are we bringing up Jameis Winston? To me at least, all he's done is prove he's a huge fucking idiot. I'd rather have RGIII for 2 over Winston for 5.
 

dcmissle

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Phragle said:
If Chipadelphia could get their hands on RGIII it would be worth a first. I don't know if there are any other teams that have the need and the ability to get the most out of RGIII.
 
Why are we bringing up Jameis Winston? To me at least, all he's done is prove he's a huge fucking idiot. I'd rather have RGIII for 2 over Winston for 5.
Just noted in another thread that Winston had best stay in college for another year. He appears to be an idiot, and at this stage given the position he plays, I imagine he is off the draft boards of the better run teams, or headed in that direction. It is inconceivable that anyone sane would hand them the keys to their offense.
 

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I don't really understand the hype about cousins, he has a poor arm, and has only had success in a very limited stretch while he was awful against the Cowboys and Falcons last year, who had two of the worst d in the league.

I fully expect him to blow up vs philly this week because that is what happens but I must be missing what someone is seeing because I don't see a starting qb arm there.
 

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LondonSox said:
I don't really understand the hype about cousins, he has a poor arm, and has only had success in a very limited stretch while he was awful against the Cowboys and Falcons last year, who had two of the worst d in the league.

I fully expect him to blow up vs philly this week because that is what happens but I must be missing what someone is seeing because I don't see a starting qb arm there.
It's not hype so much as hope.

Last year's games should not be weighted heavily because they were hurt and the team was in a death spiral with the Shanahan/RGIII/Snyder nonsense.

He's a quick study, practices well, and is well regarded by Gruden and, previously, the Shanahans. And he was instrumental in getting them the division in 2012.
 

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I have a feeling the film is going to be horrendous, was watching the replay a little this morning before work this morning and there was a lot of terrible after a pretty encouraging start against the Eagles.
 

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Yes. It makes no sense to evaluate him after 3 games, two of which were good, one horrible. He'll get a half dozen more, and that should provide a firmer foundation.
 

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Mark Schofield said:
I'll definitely revisit Cousins' tape, but as dc said I'll give it a few more games. The Seattle game might be interesting to see.  
 

One game is obviously too quick, but I remember RGIII getting more grief after his 29/37 267 yard day with 0 INTs against Houston than Cousins is getting for this 19/33 257 yard, 1 TD, 4 INT day.
 
I don't mean here, I mean in general--twitter, radio, etc.
 

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dcmissle said:
Yes. It makes no sense to evaluate him after 3 games, two of which were good, one horrible. He'll get a half dozen more, and that should provide a firmer foundation.
Its 11 games over three seasons, but your point stands.

I still haven't seen much to indicate he's anything more than a decent backup, but we'll see.
 

dcmissle

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Its 11 games over three seasons, but your point stands.
I still haven't seen much to indicate he's anything more than a decent backup, but we'll see.
Well done.

They have seen enough and McCoy starts until RGIII returns.

If they allow him to rush his return, as they did and he did to open last season, just to be on MNF in Dallas next week, everyone deserves to be fired.
 

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I'm pretty gobsmacked by them pulling and benching Cousins. For Colt McCoy for a week or two?
 
Are we in some weird universe where they are in the hunt for a playoff spot? Why trash the guy who was only weeks ago either the starter of the future or amazing trade bait.
 
Good luck getting a return on him now! Congratulations you got a win, which probably has the greatest impact in hurting your pick in the draft (don't forget you have one this year!!) while declaring you gave up on a young qb and hurting his value.
 
So potentially you hurt two assets for a meaningless win.
 
I mean rinse repeat? Can anyone see them trading up for a QB in the draft and giving up a future 1? That would be almost too ridiculous but... it is the lolskins.
 

soxfan121

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Right on, LondonSox - even if Cousins has been terrible (and he has been), this is a colossally stupid move, if only to ruin any future trade value. One or two good performances reestablishes his trade value or let him develop further. Benching him in favor of McCoy is the move of a stupid, misguided franchise. 
 

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On one hand I get the move to McCoy.   There was something up with Cousins and him not seeing so many defenders with his 10 (?) interceptions getting him out of the TEN game made sense (some argued the should have been polled from the ARI games as well).
 
However, maybe all he needed was the jolt of getting pulled and he would be fine for DAL on Monday.  That is the route I would have gone.  Work with him this week, figure out the things he does well (which they should have been doing all along) and drive a game-plan toward that.
 
Now we are left with McCoy as the starter giving them 0% chance to win and the large question is ....... who is the #2 this week.  Cousins or the marketing machine, all in for week 8, I am getting better faster than anyone in the history of anywhere Griffin III?
 
Meanwhile, back at the stadium.....  We were again treated to something called Homecoming Weekend (what pro team does this???) where a bunch of former Redskins are announced pregame and Mark Rypien was added to the Ring of Fame.  Leading the cheer-leading during all of this as the emcee was none other than the GM Bruce Allen.  In Sox-related terms it is as if the Dentist and Theo were one in the same.
 
Awful!
 

dcmissle

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Any trade value was eroded over the last few weeks. The game is too big and too fast for Cousins right now. Meanwhile, you have a first year HC who needs to set a tone and expectations.

Cousins was not the only underperformer benched. Polumbus joined him, and I expect others to be joining them if the message is not received.

What last week and the next two will likely do is test McCoy as a permanent backup. Then they have to test RGIII over the last 7.

If things go reasonably well, I expect they will attempt to deal Cousins, with one year left on his deal, for a very low round pick. If, on the other hand, RGIII gets hurt again, everything will be up for grabs.
 

mauf

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"Suck for Luck" and meaningless Week 17 games aside, well-run teams play to win. Tanking doesn't work in the NFL.
 
That said, aside from a handful of bad throws (which, to be fair, have really cost his team), Cousins has looked alright, so he would seem to give Washington a better short-run chance of winning than McCoy unless there's something else going on.
 

dcmissle

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maufman said:
"Suck for Luck" and meaningless Week 17 games aside, well-run teams play to win. Tanking doesn't work in the NFL.
 
That said, aside from a handful of bad throws (which, to be fair, have really cost his team), Cousins has looked alright, so he would seem to give Washington a better short-run chance of winning than McCoy unless there's something else going on.
He has had quarters during which he has thrown multiple picks. Those quarters have tended to be the critical ones in the game. The pick that sealed his fate last week was on a pedestrian route that, the coach emphasized, they have run many times. Based on the last few games, Cousins does not execute the drive McCoy pulled off to win the game.

Yes, HC are in the business of winning games, especially new HCs.

Stich was right. At this point in his career Cousins is a turnover machine.
 

dcmissle

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In that connection, Gruden seems to be on to his passive-aggressive bullshit and related nonsense.

"I'm not comin' out ... All in for week 1" -- and then when he gets hurt again or performs poorly,

"Coach should have been the adult in the room and protected me from myself ...."

The word is RGIII isn't seeing the field until he is ready. And with the security of a 5-year contract, Gruden should keep his word.
 

DJnVa

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soxfan121 said:
Right on, LondonSox - even if Cousins has been terrible (and he has been), this is a colossally stupid move, if only to ruin any future trade value. One or two good performances reestablishes his trade value or let him develop further. Benching him in favor of McCoy is the move of a stupid, misguided franchise. 
 
 
Or it's the move of a team that needs to send a message to players that underperforming will get you off the field. His trade value was shot with his on the field performance.
 
 

Winger 03

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dcmissle said:
The word is RGIII isn't seeing the field until he is ready. And with the security of a 5-year contract, Gruden should keep his word.
 
They are wordsmithing a little on this one.  First he had to have practiced for a couple of weeks solid without any issues.  Then it downshifted to something along the lines of Gruden saying that he will play when Gruden says he is ready, to this week where there seems to be a possibility of him taking the field.
 
The lack of a firm plan and not learning their lesson from last season is staggering.
 
Apparently, he was throwing during warmups this past Sunday which was a surprise to the coaches.
 
I think Gruden needs to take a real hard line here.
 

soxfan121

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Or it's the move of a team that needs to send a message to players that underperforming will get you off the field. His trade value was shot with his on the field performance.
 
 
Yes, but he could play his way out of it. Why throw away the .02% chance Cousins reclaims some trade value for the .01% chance at the playoffs with McCoy?
 

dcmissle

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Winger 03 said:
 
They are wordsmithing a little on this one.  First he had to have practiced for a couple of weeks solid without any issues.  Then it downshifted to something along the lines of Gruden saying that he will play when Gruden says he is ready, to this week where there seems to be a possibility of him taking the field.
 
The lack of a firm plan and not learning their lesson from last season is staggering.
 
Apparently, he was throwing during warmups this past Sunday which was a surprise to the coaches.
 
I think Gruden needs to take a real hard line here.
 
 
This expands on your point, and tees the issue up in the context of Daniel Snyder's sad ownership of a once proud franchise:
 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/dont-do-it-jay-resist-the-urge-to-play-robert-griffin-iii-on-monday-night-at-dallas/2014/10/20/28ce670e-5878-11e4-b812-38518ae74c67_story.html
 
Are they about glitz, or about getting better?
 
They are brain dead if he takes the field Monday night.  They are stupid if he takes the field the follow week vs the Vikings.  He should start against Tampa, two weeks after the Vikings' game with a bye in between.
 
I would flat out refuse any player-fueled owner demand that he play in Dallas, and whether my contract protected me or not, I'd make it an issue I'd be willing to lose my HC job over.  Cause otherwise, there's no hope here.
 

Stitch01

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If they get RGIII injured again by rushing him back after the last disaster the franchise deserves to wander in the wilderness for a bit
 

soxfan121

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Stitch01 said:
Not sure id play Cousins over McCoy if i wanted the best chance to win
 
I thought using the miniscule %'s made that point, but yes, I agree. I just don't think winning is the most important thing for a team going nowhere and in need of reinforcements up and down the roster. A 7th round pick for Cousins and going 1-4 is better than winning 2 of 5 games with McCoy, IMO.
 

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This is old, but it pertains to the Redskins and I nearly fell off my chair laughing:
 
‘Redskins Threaten to Sue Member of 80 Greatest Redskins for Calling Himself Redskins Great.’
 
Arrington:

“It’s just a picture of you that I’ve seen a hundred times before; are you at all surprised that they’re that sensitive about the whole thing?” Dukes asked.
“They won three games last year, man,” Arrington said. “It’s not like saying ‘Redskins great’ is going to sell out my camp. I mean, if I’m using ‘Redskins great,’ I mean, we didn’t win very many games when I was there, so I just thought I was doing them a favor. I thought we were in it together, Chad.”
 

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