Red Sox Deadline Discussion

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
Can the folks pining for the Sox to keep Andrew Miller and extend him please just stop?
 
He's not signing any extension before he tests the FA market, and I highly doubt Boston's going to pay him what he'll command (at least 3 years and $20M, probably closer to $25M). After the Bailey/Hanrahan/Melancon disasters, the Sox have wisely adopted a strategy whereby it's more effective to pursue undervalued low-cost arms (Badenhop, Uehara), reclamation projects (Miller was one himself), or develop relievers internally (this year's draft class was chock full o' projectable college relievers).
 
Miller and Boston enjoyed a productive, symbiotic relationship for four years. They paid him a relative pittance, and he patiently and diligently worked his way back to the majors, healthy, in a brand new role. And now he's going to deservedly cash in. But it won't be here.
 

jsinger121

@jsinger121
SoSH Member
mabrowndog said:
Can the folks pining for the Sox to keep Andrew Miller and extend him please just stop?
 
He's not signing any extension before he tests the FA market, and I highly doubt Boston's going to pay him what he'll command (at least 3 years and $20M, probably closer to $25M). After the Bailey/Hanrahan/Melancon disasters, the Sox have wisely adopted a strategy whereby it's more effective to pursue undervalued low-cost arms (Badenhop, Uehara), reclamation projects (Miller was one himself), or develop relievers internally (this year's draft class was chock full o' projectable college relievers).
 
Miller and Boston enjoyed a productive, symbiotic relationship for four years. They paid him a relative pittance, and he patiently and diligently worked his way back to the majors, healthy, in a brand new role. And now he's going to deservedly cash in. But it won't be here.
 
Excellent analysis.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,784
The wrong side of the bridge....
HomeRunBaker said:
To acquire the pieces necessary to entice Miami to move Stanton acquiring Kemp may be the cost of doing business. It isn't nearly so much as "Hey we can get Kemp here at Victorino money for 5 years!" than it is to accumulate top level prospects that Miami would want to do a deal.

There are more moving parts than Lester for Kemp here.....it's about the big picture. The big picture is to acquire Stanton while retaining our young cost-controlled players. By doing so we are able to take on Kemp's subsidized deal to get this done.

Kemp can be useful in LF for the time being while being a potential Papi replacement at DH in two years.
 
I suppose it depends partly on how much of a subsidy LA offers--but if it's a heavy subsidy (say, a third or more of the salary), I have a hard time imagining the Lester/Miller rentals being enough to pry loose Kemp and Seager and additional prospect(s). I would think much of the point of getting rid of Kemp is lost, from LA's point of view, if they're still liable for a big chunk of the contract.
 
And if the subsidy is smaller, then we're stuck with a shitty defensive OF with still-good-but-post-prime offense at $15M a year or more for the next five years. As for moving him to DH in two years, good luck with that, considering that he still thinks he should be playing CF.
 
The other thing that concerns me is that we're already shaping up to be an extremely righthanded lineup for the next few years. Replacing Nava with Kemp exacerbates this. Not the biggest deal, perhaps, but one more reason to be less than enthusiastic.
 

Yaz4Ever

stumps for Trump
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member

Red(s)HawksFan

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
13,332
Maine
soxhop411 said:
 
Kevin McAlpin ‏@KevinMcAlpin  1m
Ryan Doumit replaces Jason Heyward in right field as we start the 4th inning. Stay tuned. #Braves
 
https://twitter.com/KevinMcAlpin/status/493804477892530176
 
 
What could this possible have to do with the Red Sox?
 
The Braves are in the heart of a divisional race...they're not trading their starting RF at the deadline, at least not in exchange for relief pitchers which is all that has connected the Braves and Sox at all on the rumor mills.
 
Not every tweet has to be posted like it's major news.
 

soxhop411

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
37,862
Yaz4Ever said:
Holy crap, Heyward for Miller?  Nice haul, Ben.   :)
 
Not to be a jerk, but what does this have to do with Red Sox Deadline Discussions unless you really think Heyward is headed here?
 
 
Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
What could this possible have to do with the Red Sox?
 
The Braves are in the heart of a divisional race...they're not trading their starting RF at the deadline, at least not in exchange for relief pitchers which is all that has connected the Braves and Sox at all on the rumor mills.
 
Not every tweet has to be posted like it's major news.
I thought the Sox tried to trade for him last season?
 

jimbobim

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2012
1,558
Perhaps 
 
Lester Miller Victorino 
 
for 
 
Heyward 
 
I like Heyward a lot but I'm sure the Braves do too. 
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
13,332
Maine
soxhop411 said:
 
 
I thought the Sox tried to trade for him last season?
 
That may be the case, but use some common sense.  The Braves are in contention, the Red Sox are not.  The Braves are looking to upgrade their big league roster, not create one hole to plug another.  They're not moving Heyward anywhere until the winter at least, if at all.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
3,045
This is never happening. Heyward is having a bad year with the stick and he's STILL collected 5.1 bWAR so far this season.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
 
While I agree with your overall point - silly season and this is all crazy talk anyway - I don't think Nava or Victorino hold you up if the net goal is Stanton. You still need bench guys, Nava can cover the corner OFs and 1B. I love Vic but I'm not betting my mortgage that he will even be healthy enough to play 130 games next year - he is breaking down. If he's healthy great, they can find at bats for him. And Carp is a non-asset at this point - they got lightning last year from him, thanks for the memories see you at the 10 year anniversary. 
 
I wasn't disagreeing with adding Stanton, I was disagreeing with adding Stanton AND Kemp. A 2015 outfield of Victorino, JBJ, Stanton and Nava would be fantastic. Squeezing Kemp in there isn't realistic, though. There are multiple paths for getting to Stanton. This idea revolving around Kemp is one of the least likely being talked about. In isolation, some of the individual points make some sense, but when you start trying to assemble them into a deal it quickly spirals into ridiculousness.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
"This Is Working Out Perfect" on steroids is what we just witnessed.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
mabrowndog said:
Can the folks pining for the Sox to keep Andrew Miller and extend him please just stop?
 
He's not signing any extension before he tests the FA market, and I highly doubt Boston's going to pay him what he'll command (at least 3 years and $20M, probably closer to $25M). After the Bailey/Hanrahan/Melancon disasters, the Sox have wisely adopted a strategy whereby it's more effective to pursue undervalued low-cost arms (Badenhop, Uehara), reclamation projects (Miller was one himself), or develop relievers internally (this year's draft class was chock full o' projectable college relievers).
 
Miller and Boston enjoyed a productive, symbiotic relationship for four years. They paid him a relative pittance, and he patiently and diligently worked his way back to the majors, healthy, in a brand new role. And now he's going to deservedly cash in. But it won't be here.
So, if the Red Sox don't eventually outbid the rest of baseball in prospect cost to acquire Stanton, and then back up the Brinx truck of dollars and years that will cause him to give up a chance at free agency, what exacly are they going to spend their money on?
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
mabrowndog said:
Can the folks pining for the Sox to keep Andrew Miller and extend him please just stop?
 
He's not signing any extension before he tests the FA market, and I highly doubt Boston's going to pay him what he'll command (at least 3 years and $20M, probably closer to $25M). After the Bailey/Hanrahan/Melancon disasters, the Sox have wisely adopted a strategy whereby it's more effective to pursue undervalued low-cost arms (Badenhop, Uehara), reclamation projects (Miller was one himself), or develop relievers internally (this year's draft class was chock full o' projectable college relievers).
 
Miller and Boston enjoyed a productive, symbiotic relationship for four years. They paid him a relative pittance, and he patiently and diligently worked his way back to the majors, healthy, in a brand new role. And now he's going to deservedly cash in. But it won't be here.
This has some force.

A corollary is that we'd better hope the RS can entice a team other than the Nats and Braves into the Miller discussions because they would view him in much the same way. Both would love to have him. Each would dearly love the other not to get him. But each is doing well enough that they don't absolutely need him and will not give you a bonanza for a two-month rental.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
17,666
Rogers Park
Plympton91 said:
So, if the Red Sox don't eventually outbid the rest of baseball in prospect cost to acquire Stanton, and then back up the Brinx truck of dollars and years that will cause him to give up a chance at free agency, what exacly are they going to spend their money on?
 
(You want a guess? Jason Heyward. FA after his age 25 season, plus-plus defender, good bat. He's everything the FO says they like.)
 
Back to your regularly scheduled programming. 
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2006
19,711
Row 14
Plympton91 said:
So, if the Red Sox don't eventually outbid the rest of baseball in prospect cost to acquire Stanton, and then back up the Brinx truck of dollars and years that will cause him to give up a chance at free agency, what exacly are they going to spend their money on?
 
Not a LHRP who not less than a year you were clamoring for his dismissal? 
 
Spending on relief when you have your massive holes in your lineup is like trying to keep your iPhone dry when the boat you are on is sinking.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,459
UnfrozenCavemanGrebeck said:
A top prospect plus for Miller? I think they might be over playing their hand here. It would be great if it worked, but I don't see anyone doing that for bullpen help for 2 months.
 
Never start with your final offer.
 

Hendu for Kutch

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 7, 2006
6,196
Nashua, NH
Corsi said:
 
 
 
And they own the ninth-worst record in baseball, so if that holds, they wouldn't lose their first-round pick if they re-signed him.
 
It astounds me that people whose sole job it is to report on baseball, a job that I and most of SOSH would kill for, doesn't actually know what they're talking about.  I get it if Felger or someone doesn't know this nuance, but c'mon Jayson Stark.
 

alwyn96

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 24, 2005
1,351
Hendu for Kutch said:
 
 
 
 
It astounds me that people whose sole job it is to report on baseball, a job that I and most of SOSH would kill for, doesn't actually know what they're talking about.  I get it if Felger or someone doesn't know this nuance, but c'mon Jayson Stark.
 
Yeah, that's weird. I'm going to be charitable and assume that's a brain fart on his part or some intern that may have edited it. 
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
UnfrozenCavemanGrebeck said:
A top prospect plus for Miller? I think they might be over playing their hand here. It would be great if it worked, but I don't see anyone doing that for bullpen help for 2 months.
That actually tells me they're valuing him properly. He's a legit relief ace at this point. They should be pricing him significantly higher than Peavy and Soria.
 
Jul 14, 2005
227
Dorchester, MA
Plympton91 said:
That actually tells me they're valuing him properly. He's a legit relief ace at this point. They should be pricing him significantly higher than Peavy and Soria.
I agree that he's worth more than Peavy or Soria, but I just don't think the teams that are in the market for BP help this year will be willing to part with a top prospect plus for someone that will undoubtedly test the market.
 

Drek717

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
2,540
jimbobim said:
Perhaps 
 
Lester Miller Victorino 
 
for 
 
Heyward 
 
I like Heyward a lot but I'm sure the Braves do too. 
The Braves have in fact made it quite clear they do not.
 
Pretty much all their young talent have gotten long term extensions in the last two off-seasons except Heyward.  He got just enough to buy out his arb years.  I believe there was an article citing a source who said he of all the lot (Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, etc.) was the one they didn't even offer a longer term deal to.
 
It makes some sense.  He's nothing close to what he was hyped as, but the perception of him is still that of an elite talent ready to break through at any time.  I wouldn't be surprised if they actively shop him this winter.
 

MakMan44

stole corsi's dream
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2009
19,310
P'tucket said:
Soria also has a team option for $7 attached to his contract.
Not only that, he's pitching just as well as Miller. I don't see why/how we get more than the Rangers got. 
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Drek717 said:
The Braves have in fact made it quite clear they do not.
 
Pretty much all their young talent have gotten long term extensions in the last two off-seasons except Heyward.  He got just enough to buy out his arb years.  I believe there was an article citing a source who said he of all the lot (Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, etc.) was the one they didn't even offer a longer term deal to.
 
It makes some sense.  He's nothing close to what he was hyped as, but the perception of him is still that of an elite talent ready to break through at any time.  I wouldn't be surprised if they actively shop him this winter.
 
Heyward is a pretty good baseball player.  113 career ops+, averages +1.6 dWAR.  Not a superstar, or even necessarily an all-star, but a pretty good player.  Definitely a guy the Sox should kick the tires on, and even be willing to pay something pretty good for.  But I wouldn't unload the Brinks truck for him.  It all depends on how much he improves as he hits the prime of his career.  Is this who he is (a pretty good player)?  Or is there still room for a lot of growth (in which case, he WOULD become a superstar)?
 
I have a feeling if he hits free agency, someone is going to pay a TON of money to find out.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
42,880
ivanvamp said:
I have a feeling if he hits free agency, someone is going to pay a TON of money to find out.
 
Yeah, he seems to be someone that a number of teams think is just about ready to put it all together.
 
We talk a lot on this site about when Bradley's offense will come around, and Heyward is only 8 months older than him and he's already on his 5th full season in the majors. Someone is going to pay him a lot of money.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
UnfrozenCavemanGrebeck said:
A top prospect plus for Miller? I think they might be over playing their hand here. It would be great if it worked, but I don't see anyone doing that for bullpen help for 2 months.
I bet those GM's were so insulted by the Sox FO's initial offer that they completely broke off talks and aren't considering Miller anymore.
 

richgedman'sghost

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,541
ct
soxhop411 said:
 
 
I thought the Sox tried to trade for him last season?
Why do you just post any old tweet in this thread. As I said to you before, this has nothing to do with the Red Sox or any trade discussions. Please think before posting every tweet. He was removed because of back spams. 
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2006
10,599
The Coney Island of my mind
Drek717 said:
The Braves have in fact made it quite clear they do not.
 
Pretty much all their young talent have gotten long term extensions in the last two off-seasons except Heyward.  He got just enough to buy out his arb years.  I believe there was an article citing a source who said he of all the lot (Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, etc.) was the one they didn't even offer a longer term deal to.
 
It makes some sense.  He's nothing close to what he was hyped as, but the perception of him is still that of an elite talent ready to break through at any time.  I wouldn't be surprised if they actively shop him this winter.
Not liking him and not wanting to take the plunge on him are two different things, though.  They might simply have thought he was the least projectable of their kids for whatever reason and decided to take a wait-and-see approach.  If they like where he's headed, they still have a year to extend him and have a better sense of his value.
 

soxhop411

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
37,862
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/493865713145503744
 
 
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/493865717302046721
 
I would think that a team that trades for Lackey would need to be assured that Lackey will not sit out next year
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
As noted before, dealings within the division, though difficult, should not be off the table -- this is business, and if you're really confident in your decision here, you should not be afraid.

That said, I'd never put him in pinstripes - though that would seem to be irrelevant based on the commonly held belief that the Yanks have nothing great to offer. But if the price were better from the Os, Toronto and TB than other suitors, and were sufficient in its own right, why not?

Competition is healthy.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,162
Not here
soxhop411 said:
I would think that a team that trades for Lackey would need to be assured that Lackey will not sit out next year
 
Seriously, has he given the slightest indication that he wants to sit out next year?
 
Do you really think he is dishonest enough to negotiate a deal with no intention of fulfilling his part?
 

The Boomer

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2000
2,226
Charlottesville, Virginia
dcmissle said:
As noted before, dealings within the division, though difficult, should not be off the table -- this is business, and if you're really confident in your decision here, you should not be afraid.

That said, I'd never put him in pinstripes - though that would seem to be irrelevant based on the commonly held belief that the Yanks have nothing great to offer. But if the price were better from the Os, Toronto and TB than other suitors, and were sufficient in its own right, why not?

Competition is healthy.
 
How many trades have there been between the Sox and Yankees since they botched Sparky Lyle to NY for Danny Cater?  Former Sox free agents going to the Bronx don't count.
 

JohntheBaptist

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
11,393
Yoknapatawpha County
dcmissle said:
As noted before, dealings within the division, though difficult, should not be off the table -- this is business, and if you're really confident in your decision here, you should not be afraid.

That said, I'd never put him in pinstripes - though that would seem to be irrelevant based on the commonly held belief that the Yanks have nothing great to offer. But if the price were better from the Os, Toronto and TB than other suitors, and were sufficient in its own right, why not?

Competition is healthy.
 
I'm not trying to be an asshole here, but you've posted this exact sentiment what feels like 50 times at this point. There's so much repetition in these threads to begin with, and this just isn't that likely to happen anyway. Why do we need to be reminded of this over and over?
 

soxhop411

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
37,862

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,254
soxhop411 said:
I would think that a team that trades for Lackey would need to be assured that Lackey will not sit out next year
Unless they view Lackey as a rental they would have to be prepared to negotiate an extension. No executive in their right mind believes they are getting John Lackey to pitch for $500k......even Lucky insinuated as much following Ben's silly statement about fully expecting him to pitch through his contract.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
13,332
Maine
soxhop411 said:
I thought we had a whole thread on here debating this topic?
 
And what did Lackey post in that thread...you know, so we have resolution on what he plans to do should he be presented with the play for $500K or hold out choice?
 
Because whatever speculation (and it's all fucking speculation) that occurred in that thread amounts to absolutely nothing.
 

Yaz4Ever

stumps for Trump
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Personally, I'd prefer to hold onto Lackey.  Trade Lester, see if you can get a nice haul for Buchholz, but keep Lackey in the rotation.  In the offseason, try to re-sign Lester and go hard after Scherzer.  This all assume, of course, that we don't get a solid starter prospect in return during this wheeling and dealing.  If we do, we don't have to go as hard after Lester/Scherzer.  Buchholz' value isn't at its peak, obviously, but will it get much higher?  I'm not sure it will, so moving him now might not be a bad thing.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,254
Yaz4Ever said:
Personally, I'd prefer to hold onto Lackey.  Trade Lester, see if you can get a nice haul for Buchholz, but keep Lackey in the rotation.  In the offseason, try to re-sign Lester and go hard after Scherzer.  This all assume, of course, that we don't get a solid starter prospect in return during this wheeling and dealing.  If we do, we don't have to go as hard after Lester/Scherzer.  Buchholz' value isn't at its peak, obviously, but will it get much higher?  I'm not sure it will, so moving him now might not be a bad thing.
Scherzer already turned down 6/$144m from Detroit. I don't think we are competing in and winning this bidding war.
 

MakMan44

stole corsi's dream
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2009
19,310
What could you possibly get in a Buchholz trade? It's been repeated over and over again, and I still have no clue what people are expecting to get back for him.