Red Sox Deadline Discussion

[j44thor]

 
How many trades have there been between the Sox and Yankees since they botched Sparky Lyle to NY for Danny Cater?  Former Sox free agents going to the Bronx don't count.

 
 

 
How many trades have there been between the Sox and Yankees since they botched Sparky Lyle to NY for Danny Cater?  Former Sox free agents going to the Bronx don't count.

 
I believe Mike Stanley for Tony Armas Jr. was the last but could be wrong.  Tony ended up being packaged with Carl Pavano that off-season for Pedro so if history were to repeat itself I think I would be OK with trading a spare part to the MFY.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Unless they view Lackey as a rental they would have to be prepared to negotiate an extension. No executive in their right mind believes they are getting John Lackey to pitch for $500k......even Lucky insinuated as much following Ben's silly statement about fully expecting him to pitch through his contract.

I think they're calling because of next year's terms. If anything about that changes so will the interest, dramatically.

 

[dcmissle]

 
I'm not trying to be an asshole here, but you've posted this exact sentiment what feels like 50 times at this point. There's so much repetition in these threads to begin with, and this just isn't that likely to happen anyway. Why do we need to be reminded of this over and over?

I you really are not trying to be an asshole, try counting. I suspect the number is way closer to 3 or 4, scattered among various threads, than 50.

edit -- and by the way, you may want to check out the Fox tweets on the Orioles contacting the RS re Lester -- a possibility I mentioned in the last week in one of the handful of posts

 

[Rasputin]

I thought we had a whole thread on here debating this topic?
 
Edit: yes we did
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/83855-do-you-think-john-lackey-should-be-willing-to-play-for-500k-in-2015/?hl=%2Blackey+%2Bsit+%2Bout

 
Actually, no. That's a thread about whether he should honor the contract, and what you'll find if you read through it is not a single indication that he wouldn't, just a lot of people saying that of course he won't because something without ever being clear on what the something is.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I you really are not trying to be an asshole, try counting. I suspect the number is way closer to 3 or 4, scattered among various threads, than 50.

You want me to wade through your posts and count for an exact number?
 
How about sticking to once? We get it. It's not some revolutionary concept.

 

[snowmanny]

I suppose the question is: if Luis Severino was the best prospect offered for Lester would anyone consider pulling the trigger.

 

[mabrowndog]

Soria also has a team option for $7 attached to his contract.

 

Not only that, he's pitching just as well as Miller. I don't see why/how we get more than the Rangers got. 

 
Because it's not a linear correlation of "X got them this, so Y should get us that". It's a game of musical chairs that's nearing its conclusion.
 
There are still a metric fuckton of contending teams that are desperate for bullpen reinforcement down the stretch, that failed to acquire Soria or anyone else on his level, and are now anxiously circling the last remaining vacant seats as the music is about to come to a screeching halt.

 

[MakMan44]

 
 
Because it's not a linear correlation of "X got them this, so Y should get us that". It's a game of musical chairs that's nearing its conclusion.
 
There are still a metric fuckton of contending teams that are desperate for bullpen reinforcement down the stretch, that failed to acquire Soria or anyone else on his level, and are now anxiously circling the last remaining vacant seats as the music is about to come to a screeching halt.

True. I still have a hard time seeing Ben getting as much for Miller, but you're right that there's a fair chance it could happen. 
 
 
I think it's time we move on from the idea of acquiring Hamels though:
 

• Teams continue to ask the Phillies about Cole Hamels, and report that A) they will listen but B) the price is astronomical. Hamels has four years left on his contract after this season, at $22.5 million a year. And the Phillies have told teams they're willing to take on $10 million of that. But that still means any team dealing for him would be on the hook for $20 million a year. And given that, one AL executive said, the asking price is "just not realistic." While clubs basically look at Hamels as a guy the Phillies clearly don't want to trade, they remain frustrated that the Phillies don't factor in all the money that would be assumed when they ask for every team's top three or four young players. "That has to count for something," the exec said, "if you're assuming all that salary. But Ruben wants his doors blown off in order to trade him. And you don't get your doors blown off if this kind of money is attached. It doesn't work that way."

 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11276561/boston-red-sox-end-trading-jon-lester

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

I didn't see this upthread -- report that the Sox are NOT looking to trade Uehara, and are willing to give him the $14 million qualifying offer to keep him around in 2015.
 
http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-have-no-intentions-trading-uehara
 
I'm very happy about this, mostly because of my over-the-top love for Koji and appreciation for the utter joy he has doing his job.  I also think it's on strategy -- $14 million is a hell of a lot to pay a 39-year-old closer, but the value of a one-year commitment at a position that chews up much younger men is worth the premium.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I didn't see this upthread -- report that the Sox are NOT looking to trade Uehara, and are willing to give him the $14 million qualifying offer to keep him around in 2015.
 
http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-have-no-intentions-trading-uehara
 
I'm very happy about this, mostly because of my over-the-top love for Koji and appreciation for the utter joy he has doing his job.  I also think it's on strategy -- $14 million is a hell of a lot to pay a 39-year-old closer, but the value of a one-year commitment at a position that chews up much younger men is worth the premium.

 
Yeah, the flexibility of knowing you have a premium closer wrapped up for next year without having to commit beyond that is probably worth a modest overpay. And Lackey's contract situation makes next year a particularly good year for a move like that.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Instead of waiting to make him a QO, the Sox should offer Koji $10M for next year right now.  Removes him from the rumor mill/trade deadline discussions, allowing the Sox (and, more important, other teams, to focus on proposals for the other relievers).  He gives the team a (possible) discount for 2-months extra security and the knowledge now that he'll be here next year.  Could work.  Minimal risk. 

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

I suppose the good news is that if they're willing to throw $15 million at a 40 year old to close out games, they think the rest of the team will be able to give him enough leads to warrant the expense.  God knows he's not being overworked this year.

 

[Rasputin]

I didn't see this upthread -- report that the Sox are NOT looking to trade Uehara, and are willing to give him the $14 million qualifying offer to keep him around in 2015.
 
http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/red-sox-have-no-intentions-trading-uehara
 
I'm very happy about this, mostly because of my over-the-top love for Koji and appreciation for the utter joy he has doing his job.  I also think it's on strategy -- $14 million is a hell of a lot to pay a 39-year-old closer, but the value of a one-year commitment at a position that chews up much younger men is worth the premium.

 
I'm sorry, I've been informed that it's not happening no matter how many times (I think this is three now) that I post about it, but it makes a ton of sense. Try to get him signed quickly as soon as the season ends. If he's asking for too many years--and I think I would give him two but not three--then you reluctantly make the qualifying offer and overpay him for a season.

 

[jscola85]

Koji was worth 3.6 WAR last year and has already been worth 2.2 WAR per Bref this year.  Given a win is worth ~$6M, to be worth $14M he needs to hit 2.3 WAR next year for that to be worth the price.  2.3 WAR is still steep for any reliever but would be a material drop-off from the unhittable superhuman that Koji has been the last 1.5 years.  Hell, even his last year in Texas, he still posted 1.5 WAR despite only pitching 36 innings.

 

[jimbobim]

Pete Abraham @PeteAbe · 7m


 
Fixed the link: #RedSox have been told what it would take to sign Lester and are now looking to trade him: http://live.bostonglobe.com/Event/Red_Sox_2014_season_updates/122749416 …

 
Well now we see things a bit more clearly 
 
 


Lester is seeking what was described as a “competitive offer consistent with the market” but nothing that would be considered precedent setting.
 
The Red Sox made Lester a low-ball offer of four years and $70 million in spring training was swiftly rejected. The sides have since said negotiations were tabled until after the season.
 
A contract that reflects the market value for Lester would be approximately $22-$24 million a year over five or six years. Given his oft-stated desire to stay in Boston, Lester could conceivably take less.

 

[glennhoffmania]

And that number is...?

 

[Rough Carrigan]

 
 
Because it's not a linear correlation of "X got them this, so Y should get us that". It's a game of musical chairs that's nearing its conclusion.
 
There are still a metric fuckton of contending teams that are desperate for bullpen reinforcement down the stretch, that failed to acquire Soria or anyone else on his level, and are now anxiously circling the last remaining vacant seats as the music is about to come to a screeching halt.

This is an excellent point because one of the reasons that a team jumps in (relatively) early for a Soria is that there's scarcity and at the deadline you will tend to end up overpaying as the emotion of the time constraint gets the better of at least one of the bidders.

 

[Rasputin]

And that number is...?

 
If the Sox have no intention of paying it, does it matter?
 
For the record, while the timing makes it look like the Sox got that number, decided they weren't willing to pay it, and therefore concluded that they should trade him for the best they can get, it's not certain that's the case. Lester has made it clear he's willing to sign after being traded. Maybe the Sox are as well.
 
It doesn't look good though.

 

[E5 Yaz]

And that number is...?

 
... estimated at within the text of the link he provided.

 

[bankshot1]

I can't f'ing believe that 5/110 (even without a discount) is seen as too high for Lester.
 
I hope Lester pitches Wed night at Fenway.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I can't f'ing beleive that 5/110 (evenh without a discount) is seen as too high for Lester.
 
I hope Lester pitches Wed night at Fenway.

 
And we know 5/110 was asked for...how, exactly?
 
All I read in the Abraham piece is he and so-called insiders estimating that it would take $22-24M annually to satisfy Lester.  No mention of years at all and certainly no indication that those numbers were anything but guesses.  For all we know, Lester wants seven years at $24M per at minimum.
 
It's insane how everyone wants to fly off the handle at every tiny little bit of speculation.

 

[Rasputin]

 
And we know 5/110 was asked for...how, exactly?
 
All I read in the Abraham piece is he and so-called insiders estimating that it would take $22-24M annually to satisfy Lester.  No mention of years at all and certainly no indication that those numbers were anything but guesses.  For all we know, Lester wants seven years at $24M per at minimum.
 
It's insane how everyone wants to fly off the handle at every tiny little bit of speculation.

 
Yeah, we don't know squat. I rather suspect that if the team were offered 5/100, that they would jump all over it. I suspect the number is a lot closer to six years at 24 than five at 22.

 

[bankshot1]

 
And we know 5/110 was asked for...how, exactly?
 
All I read in the Abraham piece is he and so-called insiders estimating that it would take $22-24M annually to satisfy Lester.  No mention of years at all and certainly no indication that those numbers were anything but guesses.  For all we know, Lester wants seven years at $24M per at minimum.
 
It's insane how everyone wants to fly off the handle at every tiny little bit of speculation.

I assume that PA talked to the Lester camp to get some sense of what would he'd be interested in.It reads that Lester would sign for less than 5/110, but that price is too steep for ownership. I've no idea if its true, but if it is, it doesn't make me happy.

 

[KillerBs]

So the strategy appears to be to refuse to pay a really good player approx. 22-24$m over 5 years, replace him with a sexy mediocrity at 12m over 5 years and hope the fans are distracted and intrigued enough by the newly acquired cheaper big name star enough that they don't go apeshit over the team losing its number 1 starter and WS hero because the FO wouldn't put the money up. Seems to be working based on the enthusiasm for a Kemp acquisition around here.   

 

[E5 Yaz]

It's insane how everyone wants to fly off the handle at every tiny little bit of speculation.

 
It's what SoSH does best.
 
Well, that and reach-arounds

 

[Sprowl]

Because it's not a linear correlation of "X got them this, so Y should get us that". It's a game of musical chairs that's nearing its conclusion.
 
There are still a metric fuckton of contending teams that are desperate for bullpen reinforcement down the stretch, that failed to acquire Soria or anyone else on his level, and are now anxiously circling the last remaining vacant seats as the music is about to come to a screeching halt.

 
There are some real advantages to selling into a buyers' market. There are a lot of competitors within grasping distance in the wild card races. Peavy is a durable end-of-rotation starter; Miller is probably the best available LH setup reliever. I'd think Miller should be more valuable than Peavy, not less. By this standard, Uehara's price should be off the charts. Technically speaking, I suppose a Qualifying Offer is the equivalent of off the charts.
 
Cherington exercised patience when the Cardinals wouldn't meet his price in prospects for Peavy. I have high hopes for his haul in the coming week.
 

And that number is...?

 
Competitive and consistent with the market. There's plenty of wiggle room there, for both parties.

 

[cahlton]

The fact that the Red Sox allegedly know Lester's price and are still trying to trade him doesn't necessarily mean they won't pay it. It means they won't pay it *now.* It's possible that the team has made a handshake agreement with him: They'll trade him now, then pay him his price after the season. He gets his money, we uneasily watch him pitch for somebody else, and then he returns to a team that's richer in prospects by virtue of the transaction. Think of this as the "Indecent Proposal" of trades.

 

[jimbobim]

So the strategy appears to be to refuse to pay a really good player approx. 22-24$m over 5 years, replace him with a sexy mediocrity at 12m over 5 years and hope the fans are distracted and intrigued enough by the newly acquired cheaper big name star enough that they don't go apeshit over the team losing its number 1 starter and WS hero because the FO wouldn't put the money up. Seems to be working based on the enthusiasm for a Kemp acquisition around here.   

 
As someone who has wanted Kemp from the beginning of the year the Red Sox cannot solely get subsidized Kemp for Lester. 
 
They should realize rookie pitching will get eaten alive in the AL East without at least two reliable 200 ip vets in the Rotation. They should just pay/"overpay" Lester. It's such an painless move given their lack of future commitments it makes me think they're going to sell. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

If I have to guess you'll probably hear Badenhop traded in the next 24 hours. No inside info but it seems logical that the small pieces go before Miller and Lester. Carp Nava are both options too. But if I had to guess Badenhop gets dealt tomorrow probably back to Milwaukee or to Cleveland.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

The fact that the Red Sox allegedly know Lester's price and are still trying to trade him doesn't necessarily mean they won't pay it. It means they won't pay it *now.* It's possible that the team has made a handshake agreement with him: They'll trade him now, then pay him his price after the season. He gets his money, we uneasily watch him pitch for somebody else, and then he returns to a team that's richer in prospects by virtue of the transaction. Think of this as the "Indecent Proposal" of trades.

 
Doing that, you risk the other team working him like a rented mule. The first example that comes to mind is CC Sabathia.

 

[SoPawHurst47]

 
There are still a metric fuckton of contending teams that are desperate for bullpen reinforcement down the stretch

 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Cherington/Colletti hotline conversations are less about Lester - and separately - Kemp, but more about Miller and maybe even Ue.
 
The Dodgers achilles heel is late inning bullpen relievers, IMO. JP Howell can't play every playoff game. Wilson is a crapshoot and League is prob not a guy Mattingly wants to trot out in high-lev playoff situations.
 
Kershaw/Grienke/Ryu and born again Beckett (if healthy) are already a dangerous enough rotation for any playoff series.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The fact that the Red Sox allegedly know Lester's price and are still trying to trade him doesn't necessarily mean they won't pay it. It means they won't pay it *now.* It's possible that the team has made a handshake agreement with him: They'll trade him now, then pay him his price after the season. He gets his money, we uneasily watch him pitch for somebody else, and then he returns to a team that's richer in prospects by virtue of the transaction. Think of this as the "Indecent Proposal" of trades.

 
IF the Red Sox have an agreement with Lester on a contract beyond this season, they'd just freaking sign it and move on.  To have an agreement then trade the player out of their control is taking an extremely unnecessary risk.  Like HraniakPosterChild just posted, the receiving team could grind Lester into the ground between now and the end of the year, particularly if they get any indication that they have no shot to re-sign him.  Of course, that doesn't even take into account that they could be double-crossed on the handshake deal.  There'd be nothing they could do if Lester just decided to take a better offer from someone else come December.
 
The trade and re-sign plan is a fantasy.  Plain and simple.

 

[gammoseditor]

 
IF the Red Sox have an agreement with Lester on a contract beyond this season, they'd just freaking sign it and move on.  To have an agreement then trade the player out of their control is taking an extremely unnecessary risk.  Like HraniakPosterChild just posted, the receiving team could grind Lester into the ground between now and the end of the year, particularly if they get any indication that they have no shot to re-sign him.  Of course, that doesn't even take into account that they could be double-crossed on the handshake deal.  There'd be nothing they could do if Lester just decided to take a better offer from someone else come December.
 
The trade and re-sign plan is a fantasy.  Plain and simple.

 
I'm not sure how it's that "plain and simple" when he said he would be open to it and we have more money than we know what to do with this year.  If post season innings are that big of a concern then why did everyone want to extend him after last year?  He was either #1 or #2 in all of baseball in pitches thrown last year. 

 

[someoneanywhere]

 
I wouldn't be surprised if the Cherington/Colletti hotline conversations are less about Lester - and separately - Kemp, but more about Miller and maybe even Ue.
 
The Dodgers achilles heel is late inning bullpen relievers, IMO. JP Howell can't play every playoff game. Wilson is a crapshoot and League is prob not a guy Mattingly wants to trot out in high-lev playoff situations.
 
Kershaw/Grienke/Ryu and born again Beckett (if healthy) are already a dangerous enough rotation for any playoff series.

 
But even that -- and I appreciate what you're saying -- is not really what some of us have been trying to get to for a little while now, doggie most recently. What the deadline creates is a commodity in perception, in perceived need, in desire, that helps develop a kind of hyper-market: and that's what the Sox are trying to exploit. Maybe Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu are enough . .  . but you know, maybe, maybe they're not. And it would sure be nice to feel comfortable with more, to feel sure, to give ourselves the absolute best shot. All it takes is for one GM, one ownership group, to go there. We all know in rational terms that you can never be sure, you can never be comfortable. On the other hand, despite the entitlement that has crept into Soxland and is frankly evident all over the board at the moment, winning it all is hard, and the chances are so precious that you seize them when you can get them. That's the market they are moving for: desperation, but desperation that should be entirely understandable to anyone who was a Sox fan prior to 2004. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I'm not sure how it's that "plain and simple" when he said he would be open to it and we have more money than we know what to do with this year.  If post season innings are that big of a concern then why did everyone want to extend him after last year?  He was either #1 or #2 in all of baseball in pitches thrown last year. 

 
Okay, I'll amend.  A pre-planned trade and re-sign is utter fantasy.  If they trade him by Thursday at 4pm, then come November they will have just as good a chance as any other team of signing him as a free agent.
 
But the fact that they have to this point been entirely unwilling to approach market value with him gives me absolutely zero confidence that they'll be willing to make a competitive bid once Lester is able to field offers from anyone.

 

[dcmissle]

 
I'm not sure how it's that "plain and simple" when he said he would be open to it and we have more money than we know what to do with this year.  If post season innings are that big of a concern then why did everyone want to extend him after last year?  He was either #1 or #2 in all of baseball in pitches thrown last year. 

For one thing, somebody has to explain why Lester would assume all injury risk thru season's end while theoretically giving up the upside of FA.

There is a world of difference between "here is my number and I hope you are in the hunt" and "done -- sign when FA begins"

 

[gammoseditor]

 
Okay, I'll amend.  A pre-planned trade and re-sign is utter fantasy.  If they trade him by Thursday at 4pm, then come November they will have just as good a chance as any other team of signing him as a free agent.
 
But the fact that they have to this point been entirely unwilling to approach market value with him gives me absolutely zero confidence that they'll be willing to make a competitive bid once Lester is able to field offers from anyone.

 
I mostly agree.  I'm not sure how many people believed the idea that they have an under the table agreement prior to trading him.  I do think we would still have an advantage over most teams in FA, since he has said many times this is where he wants to pitch in 2015.  I could see him taking $1M less per year, or maybe one less year if our per year number is the highest.

 

[jimbobim]

If the Red Sox know what it'll take for him to sign is it outrageous to say  presumably he would sign with another team for maybe that without any type of "discount" before the deadline in the Red Sox effort to get the most out of trading him ? 
 
The biggest impediment on Lester's value now is that he's a rental. If he resigns for the number he floated to the Red Sox or a little more suddenly the equation becomes Lester 6-7  years 140-150(or a little more expensive then Cole Hamels) million for two big time prospects. 
 
As long as we're being unemotional about it that would seem to be the best course of action. Essentially trading exclusive rights to negotiate and control Lester on a 6-7 year deal. It would also have the bonus of keeping him out of pinstripes. 
 
Problem is a deal would presumably have to be agreed upon well before the deadline which may crimp how desperate you can make a team.  

 

[RedOctober3829]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/493946655800971265

 

[dcmissle]

Surreal.

 

[Stitch01]

Hope they damn half measures and have Koji and Napoli deals they can do if they go that route.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Based on tonight, I've been completely wrong.  They should extend Mujica, by far the best we had on the mound against the Jays.  Ugh.
 
I seriously hope I wake up tomorrow and find that Napoli, Victorino, Lester, etc are on postseason-bound teams with solid prospects flying into Boston.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

This could be an indication that teams are lined up to overpay for starting pitching.  Everyone's tradable if the return's an overpay.

 

[Laser Show]

If they trade Lester AND Lackey, I just don't see how they compete in 2015 barring miracle breakouts from like 3 pitching prospects, excluding Clay. Hell even if they acquire Hamels I don't think it'd be enough.

 

[MakMan44]

This could be an indication that teams are lined up to overpay for starting pitching.  Everyone's tradable if the return's an overpay.

Pretty much. The Astro's are doing the same thing.
 
EDIT:
 

A shortage of available quality starting pitchers is creating a seller’s market as the non-waiver deadline approaches at 4 p.m. ET Thursday. And now Luhnow is open to trading Keuchel, McHugh or right-hander Jarred Cosart for the right return.

 
It's the smart play, but I don't expect both of them to be actually moved by Thursday. 

 

[jimbobim]

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/493946655800971265

 
The end of this year is going to be ugly. Real ugly. 
 
That means the character we saw out there tonight becomes the sole vet on the staff ?
 
wow. Only thing to say really. 

 

[dcmissle]

This could be an indication that teams are lined up to overpay for starting pitching.  Everyone's tradable if the return's an overpay.

Splendid. They are then paying you in currency that you can't hope to transform into a team that is playoff competitive next year. Without a strong rotation, you have no chance.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Or just that either could be traded, not necessarily both.

 

[Stitch01]

If they trade Lester AND Lackey, I just don't see how they compete in 2015 barring miracle breakouts from like 3 pitching prospects, excluding Clay. Hell even if they acquire Hamels I don't think it'd be enough.

I'm not advocating trading both, but I agree and think if they go this route they should be targeting '16 and moving Koji and Napoli too (and, this offseason, showing Papi respect and asking if he wants to play out a rebuilding year in 15).

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

This isn't really surprising. Figure if they're going to get killed for dealing Lester, would they foresee an appreciable difference between the reaction to that and reaction to sending Lackey packing too? On the surface maybe it seems twice as bad (at least), but the bottom line "what it means" of it all might not feel that different. And if the value coming back is substantial, maybe they're thinking, "Fuck it, why not face the same shitstorm from team/fans in one fell swoop?"