If you look at what Toronto just gave up for Matt Chapman and compare it to what Colorado just gave up for Kris Bryant, it does look like the value right now might be in the trade market.
Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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This franchise has flushed a mountain of cash down the drain on big ticket free agents in the last 10 years. They’ve paid more money to players specifically NOT to play for the Red Sox than some teams spend on payroll in 5 years.
Most of the time we justify such a move by saying “well it’s just money” we end up regretting it. Meanwhile, we’re typically less regretful of the prospect hauls shipped out in trades, aside from the hit to our overall prospect depth. Is it an avenue to add talent? Of course, but you don’t do it just to do it.
If all it took were the obvious moves, WS winners would be a lot easier to predict. Chaim doesn’t have World Series cred yet, but enough of his “headscratchers” have made enough SoSHers and EEI callers look foolish that some patience is warranted.
Most of the time we justify such a move by saying “well it’s just money” we end up regretting it. Meanwhile, we’re typically less regretful of the prospect hauls shipped out in trades, aside from the hit to our overall prospect depth. Is it an avenue to add talent? Of course, but you don’t do it just to do it.
If all it took were the obvious moves, WS winners would be a lot easier to predict. Chaim doesn’t have World Series cred yet, but enough of his “headscratchers” have made enough SoSHers and EEI callers look foolish that some patience is warranted.
Pretty easy to imagine teams prefer JD at 1/$19 to Kris Bryant's contract or Schwarber's so presumably there would now be some market there.
I don't love Freeman at 5-6 years, but if you did 4 years I could see the value argument. Correa seems to be exploring back to Houston---but Story doesn't have a real path back to Colorado. Do you suppose he'd play second at least initially?
I still wonder, as mentioned above, if they are chasing someone on another roster rather than a FA.
I don't love Freeman at 5-6 years, but if you did 4 years I could see the value argument. Correa seems to be exploring back to Houston---but Story doesn't have a real path back to Colorado. Do you suppose he'd play second at least initially?
I still wonder, as mentioned above, if they are chasing someone on another roster rather than a FA.
Aren’t the Red Sox the kind of team that could use a slugger like JD Martinez on a one year deal? I’m continually baffled by the insatiable desire to get him off the roster- who replaces him? Is there a need to clear payroll? There’s no such thing as a bad one year deal, right?
Maybe there’s a way to dump him that improves the team but I’m struggling to see what that would look like, especially given the options left in the FA marketplace.
Maybe there’s a way to dump him that improves the team but I’m struggling to see what that would look like, especially given the options left in the FA marketplace.
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I’ve been trying to think of someone worthwhile that would be available, but I am at a loss. Jose Ramirez is all I can come up with, in terms of position players.
Yeah they need bats. The only scenario that I had JDM being moved is if they brought back Schwarber.
Crossposting from the main MLB thread on today's action:
The only big contract signed today I'd be comfortable being tethered to was Suzuki's, if only because outfielder depth in the minors isn't great right now. Even then, 5/85 is a lot for a Japanese player coming over, no matter how strong the scouting / projections say he'll transition fine.
It might be prudent to just continue "retooling", let the Blue Jays shoot their shot (they have traded away quite a lot of their farm to supplement with Berrios and Chapman, as mentioned), and hopefully the farm pans out starting in 2024.
Plus... the offseason isn't over just yet.
The only big contract signed today I'd be comfortable being tethered to was Suzuki's, if only because outfielder depth in the minors isn't great right now. Even then, 5/85 is a lot for a Japanese player coming over, no matter how strong the scouting / projections say he'll transition fine.
It might be prudent to just continue "retooling", let the Blue Jays shoot their shot (they have traded away quite a lot of their farm to supplement with Berrios and Chapman, as mentioned), and hopefully the farm pans out starting in 2024.
Plus... the offseason isn't over just yet.
The word is that much like Bogaerts, he wants to stay at SS, and he has supposedly turned down multiple nine figure deals (which I would find more dubious if Javy Baez didn't get 6/140).
Story might be willing to do that for a year, but he's a much better defender than X so it would definitely be a sub-optimal alignment.
I don't think there's any desire to ship out JD outside of a context where they're signing a different slugger (e.g. Freeman) long term. If that's the case, then shipping out JD gets you some assets and frees up the DH spot to rotate among Devers, Dalbec, Casas, Freeman, etc. If they aren't bringing in a guy like Freeman, than I agree it makes little sense to ship out JD.
I would have no interest in Suzuki at that contract. Japanese hitters just do not have a good enough track record, and the last thing this team needs is Rusney Castillo 2.0.
The Sox generally haven’t had a ton of success with high $$$ FA deals anyhow. Manny was great. JDM has been really good. I can’t even think of another that worked out any time recently.
It means that the Red Sox are pleased and happy to repeat the news that they have, in fact, caught and killed a large predator that supposedly injured some bathers.
Yes--I don't have any problem with JDM personally, I was only playing out the scenario where they'd clear him out to sign Freeman. Which would be an upgrade, at least for a year.
I am not a giant fan of the risk profile of Freeman, personally. I'd be more inclined to try for Story or Correa if I were going to sign a big $ free agent, both aging-curve wise and optionality-wise. I recognize Story and Correa both want to play SS, as does Xander. I also think preferences change based on the market and I don't believe everything I see on twitter, so I believe both teams and players explore different options. For those who don't like to do so, that's fine but history suggests teams view this the way I do and not that player preferences are absolute (go look at ARod statements about position before he was traded).
I also think it is quite possible that Red Sox and Bloom believe that long-term, big $ deals are a bad bet overall and thus won't be in on any of these guys beyond 3, possibly 4, years.
It always impresses me that people can still harness so much salt & grumpiness after 4 World Series & a really good year last year.
Life is good. Embrace it. Bloom will do like 7 more smart things this off-season (which we may or may not understand) & we'll have a really good present & great future & life as a Red Sox fan will continue to be awesome.
If I had to guess I'd say they'll take on more "bad" contracts with prospects attached, which is better than signing new players to bad contracts without prospects attached.
Life is good. Embrace it. Bloom will do like 7 more smart things this off-season (which we may or may not understand) & we'll have a really good present & great future & life as a Red Sox fan will continue to be awesome.
If I had to guess I'd say they'll take on more "bad" contracts with prospects attached, which is better than signing new players to bad contracts without prospects attached.
Yah. And we had to have the dodgers bail us out of that. Doubt we see that happen again (for the Sox or any other team).
Which makes me wonder if Freeman, while older, fits into a sweet spot on their comfort level of maybe giving him five years.
Part of the value of signing Story and having him at 2B is that it would improve your situation when X is a free agent. So I agree with above, but whether it is a feature or a bug is a matter of perspective.
I do think that signing Story to play 2B will accelerate discussion wtih X and carries risk of creating a mess. I also imagine Sox have some idea of whether he'll sign at a number they'll agree to, so if they sign Story they already have a sense of how this will all end.
I'd say that David Price worked out OK. Add David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller, Keith Foulke and Adrian Beltre to that list.
As PKB points out, no one wants to run JD out of town without replacing his bat. The reason the Sox were reportedly hoping he would opt out was the opportunity to sign someone who was younger, could replace his production, and add something defensively. Once he opted in, it seemed like the Sox would have to wait a year to make that upgrade, but the universal DH suddenly improves the chances for a trade. You are certainly correct that this only works if the Sox replace his bat with such a player, for instance Freeman. If not, I agree that they’re likely to keep JD for the year.
Keith Foulke was a big FA signing at the time. There are reasons for the Red Sox to be more circumspect in their spending, but the idea that John Henry isn’t going to want to spring for some big money signings here and there just because he hired Bloom as his sixth (or whatever) GM seems just plain wrong.
Yes and I added a few more guys to the list. There are more than a couple of guys there that collected WS rings.
The ‘Correa goes back to Houston’ narrative has been floating around since Sunday. I’m a little surprised it hasn’t happened if there was mutual interest. Maybe they’re just doing him a solid and upping his bids.
Who’s in on him? The Dodgers I suppose, but surely they couldn’t get both Freeman and Correa (plus an infield of T. Turner, J. Turner, Muncy, Taylor, and Lux). The Braves would have to move Swanson a year early. The Yankees have to be out after adding IKF and Donaldson.
The Angels are an obvious fit. The Cardinals could be but don’t hand out those kinds of contracts. The Cubs and Phillies have the need but they could be done after spending $80M each on outfielders. The Twins are in on Story but Correa may be a little rich. I’m not sure if Bogaerts’ statements make Correa a definite no, but we’re likely out.
Can I ask what you mean by this? I see Freeman as one of the least risky elite hitters of this generation.
He’s not a dead pull hitter and would seem to use the wall well. No chronic injuries. He’d be one of the few dozen players who’d stand to gain most by the banned shift. He’s not exactly young, but we’re not talking about giving him the Pujols contract either.
The debate doesn't have anything to do with Mookie. Judge Price on his own merits. Four solid seasons and healthy contribution to a World Championship. Could the back end of that contract have worked better for the Sox? Absolutely, but IMO his time here was successful.
The Sox' track record on big spending doesn't seem wildly different than the rest of the league. Crawford, Hanley, Lugo, and Pablo were disasters. But many more have contributed to World Series winners -- Damon, Manny, Schilling (extending guys already on your roster counts too, you are buying out FA years), Pedro, Foulke, Lowell, Ortiz, Drew, Varitek, Victorino, Napoli, Price, Eovaldi, Koji, and JDM .
He's 32 and with a long deal you are simply betting against the aging curve. That's just clearly a risk, even at a high skill level. He also doesn't have the "perfect" profile for beating the curve, which would include more speed/athleticism than he has. I like the player a lot, and I like aiming for stars. If you can get Freeman for 4 years at higher AAV I think that's worth doing.
I don't think it is at all impossible he's worth it over those years even if you have to commit 6---David Ortiz was for sure. I just think from a probability perspective it is not a great bet, and that's based on everything I've seen on aging. But that's a probabilistic statement---he could be one of the guys on the right end of the distribution. My read on Chaim, and the Sox overall, is they are playing probabilities more than hoping they place the right bets on specific guys. But we'll see....
Here are the best hitting seasons ever at age 38. Who are the ones who had speed as a large part of their game? Mays and Spesker? Bonds was before the juice. If I'm picking someone to be productive in their late 30s, it's going to be someone who can hit and doesn't need to use their legs to beat any singles out.
I think if it’s for short years that the Dodgers MO for the most part. Insanely high aav with shorter years. Say 3/100. The only way the Sox would do that is if they were confident on the reset next year and I suppose that depends a lot on what Chaim & team feel about the helping waiting in the minors to replace Vazquez, Eovoldi, etc.
My opinion is that you don’t want to pay at the top of the range for 1B/OF/DH - they are easier to replace and the replacement player floors there are generally higher. To maximize the fixed budget that MLB operates under you have to spend on pitching, catching (good luck there) and the non-1B infield positions.
But Freeman is by far and away my favorite non-Sox player.
My opinion is that you don’t want to pay at the top of the range for 1B/OF/DH - they are easier to replace and the replacement player floors there are generally higher. To maximize the fixed budget that MLB operates under you have to spend on pitching, catching (good luck there) and the non-1B infield positions.
But Freeman is by far and away my favorite non-Sox player.
Gwynn, Mays, Aaron, Bonds, Speaker all had speed at or near Freeman's age. So, what you're left with is Ruth, Williams---two of the sixish best hitters ever---two DHs with unusual aging curves (and less wear than most, given role), and a guy who just left Coors (and fell off a cliff after the great season above). If you think that makes the case for betting on Freeman hitting at 38, well, good luck to you!
The empirical data on aging curves is, I think, pretty definitive. Here's one of many articles on it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-the-aging-curve/
As I said above, and the article notes, any individual player can beat the curve any individual season for sure. But it's not a great bet. I like Freeman the hitter, but the only statistical case to be made is that if you commit more then 3-4 years you are betting against the probabilities or you are betting the early year production makes up for a bad back-end. Neither of those is insane, but they are also not good probability bets.
Or Schilling’s one year extension with the Sox in 08…(but Theo Epstein supposedly coined the phrase….so…)
I do think this quote from Epstein from Oct 2020 is fairly relevant to JD and others though. It was in regards to entering the season with Bryant, Schwarber, Lester, and Baez and others all expiring which is similar to the Sox this year.
“A one-year deal for a really talented player is a valuable thing. That’s to our benefit both to what we can do in constructing the 2021 team and having an additional year of control on certain players and also potentially to our benefit in the trade market as we look to make some changes. I think that’s a fundamental.”
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/theo-epstein-on-the-value-of-one-year-deals.html
I do think this quote from Epstein from Oct 2020 is fairly relevant to JD and others though. It was in regards to entering the season with Bryant, Schwarber, Lester, and Baez and others all expiring which is similar to the Sox this year.
“A one-year deal for a really talented player is a valuable thing. That’s to our benefit both to what we can do in constructing the 2021 team and having an additional year of control on certain players and also potentially to our benefit in the trade market as we look to make some changes. I think that’s a fundamental.”
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/theo-epstein-on-the-value-of-one-year-deals.html
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Yes, players get worse as they get older. I don't think that link is breaking any new ground. I'm pushing back on the idea that faster, more athletic players have less of a decline as they age. I think it's just the opposite. A player who never overly relied on athleticism to succeed when they were younger is a better bet to be productive when they're older and have lost some of it.
Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Dodgers are making progress towards a multi-year contract with free agent first baseman Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers seem to be in the best position financially to meet his considerable asking price, which Morosi adds will be close to $150 million. - Rotoworld
The Dodgers seem to be in the best position financially to meet his considerable asking price, which Morosi adds will be close to $150 million. - Rotoworld
Is nobody else who is in the running in a position to spend $30m a year for the premier offensive first baseman in the league? It strikes me odd that if he signs at 150, that it took this long.
I honestly don’t get why everyone wants the Sox to spend money like drunken sailors as if it’s the early 2000’s where there was almost no penalties for doing so.
spending money like that especially with the penalties that go with it don’t guarantee any success. Just ask the Yankees or dodgers
here is the dodgers payroll ranks for the last few years.
They have won 1 WS during that time
And that one WS win was during a shortened
season due to Covid.
Payroll data from here
https://www.fueledbysports.com/mlb-payrolls/
spending money like that especially with the penalties that go with it don’t guarantee any success. Just ask the Yankees or dodgers
here is the dodgers payroll ranks for the last few years.
Now tell me how many rings they have won being one of the biggest spenders in all of baseball for close to 10 years.
They have won 1 WS during that time
And that one WS win was during a shortened
season due to Covid.
Payroll data from here
https://www.fueledbysports.com/mlb-payrolls/
If Correa's signing for $30m/year, we really need to be in for him. He's better and younger than Xander. Even if you get a mess in year one, does it really matter? The uncertainty over Xander's future needs to be resolved one way or another, either by signing Correa, Story (whose market has disappeared?) or getting Xander to sign an extension this offseason.