If they extended him a year or two ago, wouldn't that have messed up the LT? Not that it was impossible, but to give him "what he's worth" seems like now is a much better time to do that, at least from the LT perspective. Riskier but given his hiring Boras, X was probably going this route regardless. It just is what it is. All this talk about people getting hurt feelings over the last couple years seems pretty meaningless to me.
I'd rather read Lion's optimism than Heyman saying that the Red Sox aren't in on anyone or aren't making real offers.
"I HEARD SOMEONE SAY SOMETHING THAT IF TRUE WOULD MAKE ME MAD AND NOW I AM SOOOOOO MAD!!!!" is Red Sox Twitter right now. Hard pass.
True, but it also means the Dodgers should be more active in the shortstop market
Perhaps a small help, but ultimately there still remain more SS openings than highly regarded free agent shortstops.
An AAV of 27.3M is mildly encouraging in a market where $30M per year seems to be the assumed floor for these SS. It's the years that are a bit nuts.
Last time the Astros let one of their own guys go, they won the World Series and the replacement was the ALCS and World Series MVP.
Possibly, but why would Xander be looking at less than Turner got? He’s a year older. I’d imagine he shooting for 9-10 years, at least for now.
This is very good analysis IMO, just wanted to add that Morosi thinks Swanson to STL or CHC.
It probably doesn't make a huge difference but Dansby's soon to be wife plays for the Chicago Red Stars of the NWSL and maybe that factors into this a little bit. Dansby there could make some sense.
I don't doubt he's shooting for 9-10 years. I'm skeptical that he's going to get it, though. Or maybe I'm skeptical that there are other teams/GMs out there as willing to commit future payroll space to aging/declining players as much as Dave Dombrowski is. Turner's is the longest contract given to a middle infielder. The other three to get 10 years are Seager (started contract in age 28 season), Cano (age 31 season), and ARod (age 25 season). Cano as the oldest to sign is also the biggest disaster among them, and it's worth noting that his contract still isn't technically over as he signed through 2023. I don't believe we're going to see a doubling of 10+ year contracts to middle infielders in one off-season.
Not sure about that. $300 over eleven years is a managable AAV. Now that Dombrowski has shot his wad, who else goes eleven years for a 30 y.o. shortstop? If X will take 8/240 or 9/270, sign him up.
Sort of good news in AAV that a couple close comps are getting under $30m. Maybe 7/$210 guaranteed plus some options gets it done? Does Bogey really want to play until he's 40? I know they all want as much as possible but I could see AAV trumping years. And I can also imagine that we will be sitting here in 2032 talking about how some $30m expiring contract doesn't really matter with a LT threshold set at $400m or whatever. Anyway, I don't see the Turner deal as Earth-shaking for the Sox.
I guess I have far less confidence than you do in Henry/Chaim's willingness to pay 8/$240.
Maybe, but have you seen their revenue charts? They routinely are right around $500m per year. There would be literally nothing stopping them from paying this besides some sort of inner greed that should disqualify them from ownership. I know we haven't won a World Series since the halcyon days of 2018, but I am hesitant to see them as being fundamentally unfit to run the team.
Already $55M committed to two age 37-38 players for the 2031 season. I'm sure a title in 2023 or 2024 will make Phillies fans feel great in 2030.
I dunno. Penciling in 7/175 for X is legit as long as the market stays there. The market has quite plainly changed; hopefully Bloom and Henry change their expectations accordingly.
I would be all over that. I'm hesitant to go over $27M AAV for him, but it's looking more and more likely we'll have to go to $30 (or higher). If he wants a longer deal at a lower AAV, good. If he's expecting 8+ years at a high AAV, we may need to just let him go. Story at SS and Kike/Vazquez at 2nd?
Who Bloom will have to trade away because they won't be able to sign him long term?
Bloom's creative, but I doubt even he can pull off trading a player who's in another team's system
That was a joke... Philly fires Dombrowski after they win a WS next season, then start to fall apart... Bloom is fired by Boston and brought in to fix the mess which includes trading their best homegrown player.
7/200-ish definitely my ceiling. If he gets something like what you’re guessing then I’m fine saying Godspeed and good luck.
Just curious, why? Not being a jerk (I hope), I just wonder why stop at 7/200 if a bit more actually brings him back? I suspect that people who only want Bogey back for an unlikely smaller deal have the Mayer timeline in mind.
Geesh, this Baghdad Bob is swooping in at every opportunity. Someone should tell him X already has Boras as his agent, no need to white knight for him. The guy is going to get PAID regardless.
Perhaps I should’ve been more precise. If a little bit north of that in money or an extra year gets it done then by all means go for it. I can’t imagine I would lose sleep over an 8th year or a few extra tens of millions if that’s what it took. I just wouldn’t blame the FO if they threw in the towel if it starts to look like 9 years at 30+ is what it would take.
I just can't imagine him going for that much lower than Turner at this point. Feels like 8/240ish is where he'll end up - still plenty of teams in the SS market.
Carlos Correa got a lot less than Corey Seager last year. We will see.
Thanks. I suspect a lot of people just have a number where the contract stops paying off, absent what the decision means in real life for the Sox. There is a case to be made for papering over the position until Mayer arrives, but the timing for that isn't right, he's a little too far away to even count on him being a productive major leaguer. I tend to think that they need Bogey to keep Devers, and the money doesn't matter too much given their current commitments, but if it doesn't happen then I'd probably move straight to the "wait for Marcelo" camp.
I would not be happy, but would accept seeing him go for that much or greater. Basically I think there is no reason the final offer from the Sox shouldn't begin with a 2 but the break even point for me isn't far north of 200. If X takes 8/240 elsewhere and I hear we only went to 170 or 180, then I'll be a bit perturbed. Mainly because while Boras talks a great game, I think in the end X would take a "modest" hometown discount (10-15% total contract).
I agree with a lot of this, but I don't see how it makes sense to just wait for Marcelo unless you're just going to completely blow it up for now, which I really don't think is their plan. If they misjudged the market (which it seems like they have) then they need to adjust and figure out how to keep X at 8/230 or whatever (unless they'd prefer Correa at 10/325). Like you, I fear that without X coming back (or maybe Correa), Raffy won't sign an extension, and then either he walks next year or we have to trade him this offseason, either of which is a really bad outcome. Unless we're going to be the Rays or the Royals, we have to be willing to pay market rates for homegrown players when they reach FA eligibility.
