Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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If this is true, and all of the other teams share this belief, would Abreu+Valdez be enough? Would you do that?
They can do more than one thing.
Which is good, because they need 1) front line pitching, and 2) defense.
Our best young prospects are hitters, including outfielders. Selling out for Juan Soto is a solution in search of a problem. It's signing AGon when we have a promising young/cheap 1B in the wings.
If that's enough to get it done, it's worth considering for sure. I mean, that's what they got in exchange for two months of Vazquez. If a year later they can turn that into a year of Soto, that's certainly a bargain.
I'm not sure I pull the trigger though, because what does a year of Juan Soto really get you? I don't buy the notion that whatever team has him gains some sort of inside line to extend him. The Nats offered him a monster extension and he turned it down. Presumably the Padres have discussed extensions with him to no avail. What would a team have to have to convince him to forego free agency, and do the Sox have it where the Nats and Padres don't?
They have us!
Soto for a season seems perfect for a team with a truckload of prospects and is thisclose from winning a title. You can shed a few off the farm system without too much of an issue and benefit. Baltimore comes to mind.
CF is improved. If Verdugo stays, RF is good. SS with Story is good. Urias at 2B is good. Assuming Duran in LF, it’s improved over Masa (who I don’t think was as bad as stats), corner IF is problematic but I think Casas will improve. Devers has focus problems more than anything.
I’m probably the only one here…. But if the status quo on offense remains, they should be fine.
It’s all starting pitching and offensive consistency issues (which is 50% the norm across all ML teams and 50% coaching issues)
Or, it's taking advantage of the rare opportunity to latch onto a generational talent at an absurdly young age, at time when we are projected to have a lot of young talent reaching the majors, they key pieces of which would not have to be sacrificed. With plenty of room left to add pitching.
I don't think you can have both Yoshida and Soto on the same team. They're very similar players in their strengths and weaknesses, with Soto being a clear upgrade. Whether they work a trade for a year of him or sign him as a free agent next winter, Yoshida would have to be traded.
How? We are going to give Soto $35-$40M per, in addition to Devers and assuming we would still want to add Yamamoto and someone else? How long is that sustainable? As we saw with Betts / Devers etc, young talent doesn’t stay cheap for long.
That would be ideal. But as the Phillies have proven, with both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos in the OF, bad D teams can win if the other stuff is good enough.
You might be right, though I'd say that Soto isn't going to get that kind of AAV and also the contract length we've seen the past few years. It was 5 years ago, but Bryce Harper only got 25 mil (over 13 years). Same age as Soto. Better fielder, not quite the same hitter.
If we want to consider trading prospects for an OF, it’s not Soto’s name that we should be discussing as he’d be require too much in prospects, isn’t good defensively (for a team that needs to improve its defense), is a LHH (on a team that needs an elite RHH) and might very well end up a one year rental.
Mike Trout, on the other hand, will almost certainly cost less in prospects, is signed long term (both a blessing and a curse) and is a RHH. He’s not an exceptional fielder but he’s better than Duran (who I’d imagine might be dealt in a trade for him) and if Rafaela was placed in CF he’d certainly be a strong option for LF (with Yoshida shifting to DH). One key question is whether or not the Angels would be willing to sweeten the pot by adding any money to a deal.
Mike Trout, on the other hand, will almost certainly cost less in prospects, is signed long term (both a blessing and a curse) and is a RHH. He’s not an exceptional fielder but he’s better than Duran (who I’d imagine might be dealt in a trade for him) and if Rafaela was placed in CF he’d certainly be a strong option for LF (with Yoshida shifting to DH). One key question is whether or not the Angels would be willing to sweeten the pot by adding any money to a deal.
BTV (FWIW) values Verdugo (10) and Duran (10.3) essentially the same. Their values to other teams, however, depends on the other teams' needs, whether they need one year of a MLB-proven, fringe Gold Glove outfielder, to round out a roster and make a playoff run, or are willing to take a risk on a low-cost, cost-controlled work-in-progress.
The Angels will have to add a lot of cash to any Trout deal. No one is going to want to pay him $37M/year for his age 36-38 seasons in 2028-2030. Trout's got serious health issues, mainly his back, and may wear out before then.
The defensive stuff (and Judge) notwithstanding, Soto's bat looks a lot more of a Fenway fit. He's a prolific opposite field hitter. Lifts the ball the other way better than just about anyone besides Freeman or Seager.
My answer to this, fwiw, is from this Sports Illustrated article here:
Soto fell in love with baseball because of the Red Sox and their Dominican stars, Pedro Martínez, David Ortiz and Manny Ramírez. Young Juan would rip two sheets of paper from a notebook, crumple them into a ball, cover it with tape and act out by himself a Red Sox–Yankees game in a hallway of his house.
I've posted before and it's perfectly reasonable to ignore this sort of thing. But it's possible that Soto makes his own destination here.
Yeah, I'm not really seeing a problem. We have $76 million in committed salary on the books in 2025 and the first lux tax threshold is $241 million. The CBA runs through 2026, and I can't imagine the thresholds won't rise again, maybe by quite a bit.
I wouldn't peg us to sign Soto and Yamamoto. I'd be perfectly happy to throw 5/$90 or something at Montgomery and do a 2/$24 deal for Mahle) But I kind of think the Sox should grab one of the big three here (including Ohtani), and Soto is the safest and strongest bet, imo.
The problem at that time was that Boston had $60 million AAV tied up in non-performing players. Presumably Soto's going to hit the heck out of the ball playing in Fenway.
That's definitely interesting. I imagine the utility of that bit of knowledge could be sussed out in a trade discussion fairly quickly. If Soto were willing to discuss an extension pre-trade with the Sox, then you pursue trade talks. If he's not willing, then it's fairly meaningless trivia and maybe you wait a year and make a free agent pitch if you still want him.
How about
The Red Sox get: Juan Soto
The Padres get: "The Japanese Juan Soto" + $16m
If we're dealing for Soto — I doubt it — it's either contingent on an extension or it's a deal for one year of Juan Soto at an Arb3 price that might approach $30m. Now, as a 6 WAR player, that check is only half of what he's worth on a one-year deal. But the value on paper should be less than half the value of the Betts deal, for a benchmark.
BTV is a bit lower on Soto than I am, but they have him worth ~$20m of surplus value for 2024. I also suspect that Abreu will jump up somewhat in their next value update, but that Valdez will not.
So, Yorke straight up is roughly fair by their valuations. To build a viable deal around Abreu and Valdez, you'd have to take back some of a bad contract, too — like how the Dodgers got Betts. Maybe Soto, with Yu Darvish and ~$50m (in the role of David Price and $48m) for Abreu and Valdez? Something like that.
Honestly, if we were to take a bad deal back from the Padres to get a short-term asset, the guy I'd want would be...
*a great disturbance in the force, as an entire baseball message board groans and rolls their eyes in unison*
...Ha-Seong Kim. He's RH, posts good OBPs, and is one of the best infield defenders in baseball. He doesn't hit the ball terribly hard, but does hit a lot of fly balls to LF. He's under contract for 1/$7m plus some sort of mutual option for 2025. He had a tick more bWAR in 2023 than Juan Soto; ~1 fewer fWAR, though.
I suspect that the bad deal is still taking on Darvish's contract. Kim is the asset nvalvo is proposing the Sox pursue, rather than Soto. Hence the collective groans and eye rolls as that is well trodden wishcasting around here.
Soto to Seattle for one of the young SPs and Harry Ford makes all the sense in the world to me, if - big if! - the Padres are actually entertaining offers, which I’m not sure they are. Could the Red Sox beat that? Maybe, but hard to know how the new boss will operate until they’re in the seat.
From that long ‘state of the Sox post’ @JM3 linked on the 40 man thread:
“Basically, through July, Yoshida was one of the best hitters in baseball. He was extremely difficult to strikeout, he hit the ball hard, and he’d take a walk when the opportunity presented itself.
Since? Yoshida has quite literally been the worst position player in baseball. Out of 153 qualified hitters since July 27th, Yoshida is 153rd in WAR with -1.2. The next closest hitters are, amusingly, Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew Benintendi, who both have -0.5 WAR in that time.”
“Basically, through July, Yoshida was one of the best hitters in baseball. He was extremely difficult to strikeout, he hit the ball hard, and he’d take a walk when the opportunity presented itself.
Since? Yoshida has quite literally been the worst position player in baseball. Out of 153 qualified hitters since July 27th, Yoshida is 153rd in WAR with -1.2. The next closest hitters are, amusingly, Giancarlo Stanton and Andrew Benintendi, who both have -0.5 WAR in that time.”
Through July 25 (380 PA): 43 K (11.3%) / 28 BB (7.4%)
Since July 26 (188 PA): 35 K (18.6%) / 6 BB (3.2%)
So K % is up ~65%, and BB % is down ~57%.
Not great, Bob.
Since July 26 (188 PA): 35 K (18.6%) / 6 BB (3.2%)
So K % is up ~65%, and BB % is down ~57%.
Not great, Bob.
The continuation of that post says:
"What’s changed? For the most part, there’s been some rough batted ball luck. When Yoshida does put the ball in play, he’s still hitting the ball on the ground at the same rate, and the same goes for flyball/line drive splits. He’s even improved his hard hit rate. An 80 point drop in BABIP without changing your batted ball tendencies is generally bad luck.
However, that doesn’t explain the entire change. While Yoshida’s perhaps been hard done by with the outcomes of balls in play, his behavior at the plate has made things harder. His strikeout rate has nearly doubled, from an elite 11.5% to an extremely pedestrian 19.5%. His walk rate has also been halved, from an acceptable 7.3% to a miniscule 3.6%. This is down to a combination of a few things: his swing rate is up — both in and out of the zone — and his contact rate is down — once again, both in and out of the zone. He’s swinging a lot more than before, and making contact a lot less frequently than he was before. That’s a bad combination. Even if Yoshida’s BABIP comes back up to where it was pre-August, the version of him that strikes out 20% of the time and walks only 4% of the time is simply not a productive enough bat to justify enduring his defense in left field, much less making him the full time DH."
https://keesvanhemmen.medium.com/making-sense-of-the-assets-chaim-bloom-leaves-behind-in-boston-part-1-position-players-22c722637594
Not quite as bad as Rusney Castillo, but given Yoshida's age and defensive limitations, there's a good chance that Boston has already gotten the best it's going to get from him, and there are still four years and $72 million to go on this deal. And even if his offense is better than the second half version of him going forward, that's already a wild overpay for a DH. They could've signed Josh Bell or Brandon Drury in the offseason for 1/10th the cost and no long-term commitment and gotten a more versatile player to boot.
I think that's a big leap. I think it's way more likely that it had nothing to do with why he was let go.
In concert with such a short-term move [Bell/Drury], they also could have investigated playing Valdez in LF instead of 2B. He has played (probably poorly) about 25 games in the outfield in the minors, but not once since being acquired in trade by the Sox.
Suzuki is younger and actually brings something to the table defensively and on the bases. I don't doubt that Yoshida should be better at the plate next year with a full season under his belt and an offseason of work plus a full spring training and no WBC, but all his value is going to have to come from his offense, and it's an open question as to whether he can hit enough to make this deal worth it or justify a very limited roster spot. It's not looking good after year one.
There’s not much to get excited about here. Yoshida doesn’t strike out much- but what else is there? He doesn’t walk or hit the ball hard.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799
He's right around average in hard hit and SLG. Coupled with the high contact rate, I think there's reason for optimism that he can come back a bit stronger next year. Doesn't have to be a superstar, just an above average hitter..
Hopefully just a bad second half. The guy has the Professional Hitter label. He will adjust and should be able to prepare better for the grind of 162 and time zone travel.
And play better defense in front of the Monster with more experience
And play better defense in front of the Monster with more experience
I still don't see his defense as being nearly as bad as the claims here. I'm definitely not saying he's great, or even good... I watched maybe 35 games this season and he was the LF in most of them and I think I saw one play that was horrifyingly bad that led to an outcome different than had he made the play.
I also don't think he's movable in a trade unless it's half that salary being eaten, which I think would be a bad decision knowing that he was pretty damned good for a long stretch and he's likely worn out after the WBC. As stated above, he's a professional hitter and his approach is pretty cerebral. I'd definitely bet on him improving his overall season at the dish and a slight improvement in the OF. That said, I think he's likely a defensive and DH platoon for the remainder of his contract. Most likely scenario is Verdugo or Duran being moved but I'm also not sure I really would bet any money on that... which is a discussion for a different thread.
I also don't think he's movable in a trade unless it's half that salary being eaten, which I think would be a bad decision knowing that he was pretty damned good for a long stretch and he's likely worn out after the WBC. As stated above, he's a professional hitter and his approach is pretty cerebral. I'd definitely bet on him improving his overall season at the dish and a slight improvement in the OF. That said, I think he's likely a defensive and DH platoon for the remainder of his contract. Most likely scenario is Verdugo or Duran being moved but I'm also not sure I really would bet any money on that... which is a discussion for a different thread.
Agree, the overall numbers look pedestrian.
Looking on the bright side, from April 20, when he righted the ship, through July 25th, which is when the swoon appeared to begin, Yoshida put up these marks.
.299 xBA
.352 xOBP
.475 xSLG
.360 xwOBA
154 wRC+
I'm cherrypicking here, but as a way of responding to your post—I think that's something to be excited about. If he's that guy, he's one of the top 50 hitters in the league.
I can only speculate what needs to happen to restore that guy. I've been much more inclined to keep him in left field for the next few years, but if that's the source of fatigue, then maybe DH-ing him is the way to go. (The WBC may have been a factor this year too). The player above is a better hitter than all full-time DHs besides Ohtani, Alvarez, Harper and Ozuna.
Not sure why, it was a clear case where Bloom put his opinion out there backed by a semi-big five year deal. No one else in MLB thought Yoshida was worth that kind of deal, which is why BOS landed him so quickly.
POBOs don't get fired for a player in the first year of a semi-big five year deal having a crap month and a half. Just like they didn't extend Bloom after Masa's great May.
Certainly not the only reason, but there's a big jump between that and what you said: "I think it's way more likely that it had nothing to do with why he was let go"
I guess there is a lot of room between your saying that it was a "big reason" and my saying "it had nothing to do with it."
This has probably run its course, and we'll just each believe what we believe without any way of knowing.
Yeah, I have to imagine that the contracts that Bloom did and didn’t hand out had some impact on how he was evaluated. If the organization no longer had confidence in his ability to build a team- contracts to Story and Yoshida may have factored into their reasoning. Or not.
I get that Boston’s offer to Yoshida was bigger than what others expected. Isn't that what a team with Boston’s financial resources should be doing?
Identify the target and get it done. This off-season they will hire a new guy that is “creative and decisive “ to spend money on players. They are going to need to take risks on contracts and hope for the highest payout.
Reference Yamamoto or Ohtani obviously. But the guy a few complain that Bloom lost out on by not beating the market = Eflin.
Identify the target and get it done. This off-season they will hire a new guy that is “creative and decisive “ to spend money on players. They are going to need to take risks on contracts and hope for the highest payout.
Reference Yamamoto or Ohtani obviously. But the guy a few complain that Bloom lost out on by not beating the market = Eflin.
Yoshida's OPS is currently .781. League average is .731.
Bell's at .746.
Drury's at .784.
Yoshida's a year younger than either of them and plays a passible LF. I like his chances going forward with a full year to acclimate to the different style of the game. I like them more with a different hitting coach.
It means he has good bat-to-ball skills. If you sort for field outs, it's pretty obvious he's been pulling a lot of balls this month for outs, compared to his more successful middle season.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799?stats=gamelogs-r-zones-statcast&season=2023&gamelogs_event=field_out&gamelogs_direction=&gamelogs_pitchtypes=&gamelogs_view=statcastGameLogs
Here are basehits for comparison:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799?stats=gamelogs-r-zones-statcast&season=2023&gamelogs_event=hits&gamelogs_direction=&gamelogs_pitchtypes=&gamelogs_view=statcastGameLogs
He's also racked up about half his overall strikeouts since July 30, which increased as he went:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799?stats=gamelogs-r-zones-statcast&season=2023&gamelogs_event=strikeout&gamelogs_direction=&gamelogs_pitchtypes=&gamelogs_view=statcastGameLogs
I think the takeaway on the strikeouts is that he's striking out on a variety of pitches. . .which suggests he's worn down, rather than vulnerable to a particular type of pitch.
I'd guess that's more likely an approach issue, rather than than a pure skill issue.
I mean there's a pretty big difference between "use your financial resources to get a deal done even if it costs a little more than you want" and "overpay and outbid the market by a huge amount." The former is being flexible; the latter is being myopic.
I've never actually seen what other teams offered... only commentary by sideline types that said, "Other GM's thought it was waaay too much". I honestly don't put it past any GM to throw a little shade on other GM's when they lose out on a bidding war. Maybe they offered $2.5M less and in their mind anything more than that was way too much. I don't know. But really... I just don't think I've ever seen what any other team offered.