I have said this a couple of times but it could be in any one of three or four threads, so I'll repeat it here: I am convinced that the NFL's actions have been driven by an absolute belief that the video would never come out.
This seems unbelievably foolish on its face, but it's the only thing that makes sense.
- NFL sees video in the course of their investigation and realizes how damming it is, but gives Ray Rice a minor suspension because ... well, because they utterly and completely fucked up.
- When they begin to receive heavy criticism, they begin to leak a malicious, fabricated story that pointed to the elevator video as being somehow exculpatory for Rice and suggested that Janay Palmer was the true instigator. (This is the disgusting, passive-aggressive crap reported by Peter King and Chris Mortensen back in July.)
It's interesting to note that this is the same narrative that Rice's lawyer was pushing back in May when Rice cut his deal. Rice's lawyer was the one who negotiated his punishment with the NFL. Not a coincidence.
- When the criticism continues unabated, the NFL issues a tougher policy for domestic violence to try to end the criticism,
- When the video is leaked to TMZ, the NFL acts in a panic and throws Rice, his wife, the reporters they leaked to and anyone who claims they ever saw the video under the bus in a nanosecond. And Roger Goodell begins a PR offensive designed to push the narrative that he was Sgt Schultz, knowing nothing about anything.
The point is that the NFL did not have a coherent strategy because they are an arrogant, ossified institution that expects to dictate terms to the world and have the world just eat it up. I mean, we know as a matter of fact that they blatantly lied about the Saints bounty program and fundamentally misrepresented the contents of the evidence in that case because they wanted to reinforce their legal defense in the concussion lawsuits they were dealing with. Are we really surprised that their first instinct here when faced with the video was to lie?
This is an organization in chaos because when they aren't able to dictate terms they are out of their depth. It's just that simple.