Sox in on Miley

[nvalvo]

What are we making of the jump in K-rate?
 
2011-13 he had K/9 in the 5.5-6.5 range. Then in 2014, 8.2. 
 
His walk and HR rates went up too, as did his BABIP, but if he could retain some of those strikeout gains while getting better luck on fly balls and balls in play, he could be poised to break out. 

 

[foulkehampshire]

I posted this is another thread, but non-elite NL pitchers scare me. Miley made four interleague starts last year and got murdered: 20.2 innings, 20 earned runs.
 
Also looking at his splits last year, he was great in July, mediocre in May and bad to awful the other four months.

 
This isn't the days of a powerhouse AL East from 1995-2010. The gap may be lesser than you would assume. 

 

[soxhop411]

“@nickcafardo: Red Sox have had a good number of talks with SD and Arizona. Miley definitely on radar with AZ. Padres looking for offense c”

Does this mean a 3 team trade?

 

[Corsi]

Sean McAdam ‏@Sean_McAdam  25s25 seconds ago
To clarify: I have NOT reported or confirmed Red Sox are close to deal for Miley. Merely reported that another team thinks he's going to BOS

 

[MakMan44]

“@nickcafardo: Red Sox have had a good number of talks with SD and Arizona. Miley definitely on radar with AZ. Padres looking for offense c”

Does this mean a 3 team trade?

No. 
 
EDIT: Just to expand on this. The only offensive catcher the Sox have is Swihart and neither team has a pitcher good enough to acquire him. The DBacks also just shipped Montero for the Cubs, so much ado about nothing re: 3 team trade.  

 

[Nuf Ced]

Someone has jumped the gun and already changed Miley's wiki page to say he's a pitcher for the Boston Red Sox.

 

[RedOctober3829]

No. 
 
EDIT: Just to expand on this. The only offensive catcher the Sox have is Swihart and neither team has a pitcher good enough to acquire him. The DBacks also just shipped Montero for the Cubs, so much ado about nothing re: 3 team trade.  

Looks to me the C could be a typo.

 

[soxhop411]

No. 
 
EDIT: Just to expand on this. The only offensive catcher the Sox have is Swihart and neither team has a pitcher good enough to acquire him. The DBacks also just shipped Montero for the Cubs, so much ado about nothing re: 3 team trade.  

Unless that's just a stray C. It sounds like they are just looking for offense. Not an offensive C

 

[Plympton91]

For some reason, that old Eagles song, "Desperado" just started running through my head as I saw this news.

PJHeff's theory of building a rotation full of #3 starters is a viable strategy, but I don't see Miley as a #3 starter against teams using a DH and in order to make that work you need to add a bunch more sub-2.00 ERA relievers too.

So, if this trade is viewed as accomplishing anything more than making the #5 spot in the rotation somewhat more reliable, I am opposed. I'd rather cycle the kids through the #5 spot and see if one of them can reach their upside.

Top of the rotation starters are needed, not bottom feeders.

Per the 3 team speculation, Cespedes to the Padres, Miley to the Red Sox, Padres prospects to the DBacks would be reasonable; a solid but unspectactular starting pitcher is about where I think Cespedes value is right now.

 

[MakMan44]

Looks to me the C could be a typo.

Makes sense, was wondering why the Padres would be looking to move Grandal then. Still not sure I see a 3 team trade fit, but hey, it could happen. 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 
Just to play devil's advocate, when you pitch at Chase and Dodger, AT&T and Petco are in your division, your road stats are pretty likely to be better than your home stats. I don't think we should expect those gaudy road ERA's (3.17 last year, 3.31 career) to translate. But he's probably an upper-3's-to-4 guy in the AL East. That would be useful.

Dodger Stadium has played pretty neutral for the past few years, even being a bit of a HR park, but you're right about AT&T & Petco.

 

[the1andonly3003]

Someone has jumped the gun and already changed Miley's wiki page to say he's a pitcher for the Boston Red Sox.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wade_Miley
 
Well, it would have been nice if they wrote who the Red Sox gave up to get him

 

[mloyko54]

I'd be fine with a rotation of Shields-Porcello-Kelly-Miley-Buchholz with Masterson either the 5th or long man. I think MIley is backend guy and believe Red Sox are shooting high for the #1 and #2 spots. 

 

[nvalvo]

Unless that's just a stray C. It sounds like they are just looking for offense. Not an offensive C

 
Well, they are reported to have deal lined up to deal Grandal for Kemp. 

 

[SoxinPA]

 
Just to play devil's advocate, when you pitch at Chase and Dodger, AT&T and Petco are in your division, your road stats are pretty likely to be better than your home stats. I don't think we should expect those gaudy road ERA's (3.17 last year, 3.31 career) to translate. But he's probably an upper-3's-to-4 guy in the AL East. That would be useful.

Honest question here... I've read in a couple of posts now about how Miley or other pitchers might look good elsewhere but they wouldn't hack it in the AL East. Is this simply due to park factors or is this residual respect for the ghosts of offenses past? I know Toronto should be a good to great row of sluggers moving forward, but it's not like the Rays or MFY's are really all that daunting anymore. And it's not like the offenses in LA, Colorado and SF are or have been anything to sneeze at.

 

[amarshal2]

There are a couple of things from his fangraphs page that we can cling to for warmth during the cold nights ahead. First, his ground ball percentage was an impressive 51% last year and 52% the year before. That's a good thing if he's pitching in Fenway for half of his starts. He's also had respectable xFIPs the last three years. 3.75, 3.77 and 3.50. He had solid ERA-'s in 2012 and 2013 of 81 and 91, though he had a 114 last year which is 14% worse than league average.
 
He'd be a solid middle of the rotation acquisition with an approach that looks like it would be helped by pitching in Fenway with a solid defense and a home run suppressing left center, center and right center field, and a bit of upside. He doesn't strike anyone out and he'll need to get that BB/9 back down under 3 to be more than rotation filler, though.

 
You sure?  
 
He posted a 8.18 K/9 last year.  Up from about 6.5 in previous years.
 
Digging through his fangraphs page...
 
This coincided with a 10%pt increase in usage of his slider from 16.5% to 25.8%...
...and a decrease in his outside zone contact % from up near 70% in previous seasons to 61%.
 
We'd have to take a look/consult someone to find out.
 
Edit: I'm not saying I love the guy but I'd be happier if it turns our that K/9 bump is sustainable.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

His BB/9 has been steadily creeping up the past three seasons, 1.7, 2.9, 3.4 - and that scares me. His WHIP has similarly climbed from 1.182 to a more mediocre 1.317 to a poor 1.401 in 2014.
 
The good news is his strikeout totals took a big jump forward in 2014 from 6.5 to 8.2...
 
I'm worried he'd be very... Dempstery here, but at the same time he's intriguing.
 
His path so far reminds me of someone, I want to say Cliff Lee - who was a bit uppsy-downsy and struggled with walks a bit before having an absolutely monster season at age 29.
 
Maybe the trade wouldn't be so bad after all - but it's a gamble.
 
(The thread seems to have exploded as I type... is this a done deal?)

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Interesting combination of FIP measures over the past years. 
 
His 2012 numbers of 6.66 / 1.71 / 0.65 suggests a strong #2 / borderline ace in control and grounders mold.
His 2013 numbers of 6.53 / 2.93 / 0.93 is more like an average and unexciting pitcher.
His 2014 numbers of 8.18 / 3.35 / 1.03 suggests a big step up in strikeouts, but with an increase in walks, and what looks like bad luck on HR/FB. 

 

[MakMan44]

For some reason, that old Eagles song, "Desperado" just started running through my head as I saw this news.

PJHeff's theory of building a rotation full of #3 starters is a viable strategy, but I don't see Miley as a #3 starter against teams using a DH and in order to make that work you need to add a bunch more sub-2.00 ERA relievers too.

So, if this trade is viewed as accomplishing anything more than making the #5 spot in the rotation somewhat more reliable, I am opposed. I'd rather cycle the kids through the #5 spot and see if one of them can reach their upside.

Top of the rotation starters are needed, not bottom feeders.

Innings are needed. If the Sox think Miley is going to put up an ERA around 4 over 200 IP for someone like Webster, that's probably a trade worth making if they want to compete next season. I wouldn't even count on Kelly putting up 200 IP next season and he's the closest thing to a known quantity the Sox have right now. 

 

[czar]

His BB/9 has been steadily creeping up the past three seasons, 1.7, 2.9, 3.4 - and that scares me. His WHIP has similarly climbed from 1.182 to a more mediocre 1.317 to a poor 1.401 in 2014.
 
The good news is his strikeout totals took a big jump forward in 2014 from 6.5 to 8.2...

 
These actually somewhat offset each other a bit.
 
BB% only ticked up about 1% last year (well within year-to-year noise), whereas only a 4% jump in K%. Both are less "relative" jumps when you consider % rather than /9 based on him facing more batters last year (higher BABIP).
 
Miley's F-Strike% was actually quite high last year (career best), so the BB% results don't concern me too much, especially since he's still at 8% or so and below (better than league average).

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
You sure?  
 
He posted a 8.18 K/9 last year.  Up from about 6.5 in previous years.

 
Seemed an aberration when looking at his previous seasons, but it may be a sustainable change. He never had a sustained run of high K/9 numbers in the minors, so I'm not willing to bet on it. I'd be nice if he could keep the strikeout rate up that high and get the walks back down, though.

 

[nvalvo]

This was an interesting point so I asked Neil Weinberg from FG if there was a way to check average fly ball distances for pitchers. 
 
 
 
 
Now, that means nothing to me, but there does seem to be a way to see if your theory checks out. 

 
His average flyable flyball distance was 283.2 ft. I have no idea what league average is, though.
 
League average (all flyballs in 2014) was 272.2 ft. So his were a little long. 

 

[Corsi]

Mike Loyko ‏@NEPD_Loyko  35s35 seconds ago
#Diamondbacks Tony LaRussa on MLB Net says "we need to get younger and deeper in starting rotation and we're making moves to do so"#RedSox

 

[MakMan44]

 
His average flyable distance was 283.2 ft. I have no idea what league average is, though.

Thanks. I'll see if I can find the answer to the latter. 

 

[czar]

Interesting combination of FIP measures over the past years. 
 
His 2012 numbers of 6.66 / 1.71 / 0.65 suggests a strong #2 / borderline ace in control and grounders mold.
His 2013 numbers of 6.53 / 2.93 / 0.93 is more like an average and unexciting pitcher.
His 2014 numbers of 8.18 / 3.35 / 1.03 suggests a big step up in strikeouts, but with an increase in walks, and what looks like bad luck on HR/FB. 

 
That bad luck in HR/FB will show up in FIP. It'll be regressed out in xFIP and SIERA.
 
It's my feeling that FIP is "eh" for pitchers with >45% or so GB% (as in they tend to outperform FIP) so I'd lean more towards using the HR-regressed stats which showed his 2014 as his best season (thanks to the Ks).
 
Batted ball profile has been remarkably unremarkable from a consistency standpoint last few years...

 

[curly2]

Honest question here... I've read in a couple of posts now about how Miley or other pitchers might look good elsewhere but they wouldn't hack it in the AL East. Is this simply due to park factors or is this residual respect for the ghosts of offenses past? I know Toronto should be a good to great row of sluggers moving forward, but it's not like the Rays or MFY's are really all that daunting anymore. And it's not like the offenses in LA, Colorado and SF are or have been anything to sneeze at.

 
I brought up the interleague thing, and no necessarily that he won't hack it, but that it's a red flag. His interleague starts last year, by the way, were against the Indians, White Sox, Twins and Astros -- not exactly Murderers Row.

 

[Plympton91]

Innings are needed. If the Sox think Miley is going to put up an ERA around 4 over 200 IP for someone like Webster, that's probably a trade worth making if they want to compete next season. I wouldn't even count on Kelly putting up 200 IP next season and he's the closest thing to a known quantity the Sox have right now. 

If you get 2 top of the rotation starters plus Miley, then Kelly and Buchholz fill out your rotation. That's a nice rotation that I'm pleased with, but what happened to the goal of breaking in at least one of the many arms sitting at Pawtucket? Or are all those arms ticketed for trade or the bullpen?

I'm fine with Miley as a 4/5, but if they're going that route, then they still need at least two that are #3's or better. You can't go with FA, Buchholz, Miley, Kelly, Rookie. That's a recipe for the season being over by the All-Star break again.

Another thought, however, is that Miley might be attractive to the Reds, as a piece to a Cuetto or Latos deal. I'd like that better.

 

[mauf]

 
You sure?  
 
He posted a 8.18 K/9 last year.  Up from about 6.5 in previous years.
 
Digging through his fangraphs page...
 
This coincided with a 10%pt increase in usage of his slider from 16.5% to 25.8%...
...and a decrease in his outside zone contact % from up near 70% in previous seasons to 61%.
 
We'd have to take a look/consult someone to find out.
 
Edit: I'm not saying I love the guy but I'd be happier if it turns our that K/9 bump is sustainable.

 
I don't like his chances of continuing to be a durable SP throwing 25% sliders -- that's not quite Francisco Liriano territory, but it's high.

 

[mloyko54]

Jon Morosi @jonmorosi

#RedSox and #DBacks are close to a deal that will send Wade Miley to Boston, source says.

 

[chrisfont9]

Interesting combination of FIP measures over the past years. 
 
His 2012 numbers of 6.66 / 1.71 / 0.65 suggests a strong #2 / borderline ace in control and grounders mold.
His 2013 numbers of 6.53 / 2.93 / 0.93 is more like an average and unexciting pitcher.
His 2014 numbers of 8.18 / 3.35 / 1.03 suggests a big step up in strikeouts, but with an increase in walks, and what looks like bad luck on HR/FB. 

I'd definitely like to know more about that last line. Why more strikeouts? Was there a qualitative improvement in one of his secondary pitches? Did that same improvement come with some inconsistency that led to the walks? These numbers are a bit hard to decipher. [Edit: I see a bit more now from amarshal2 about sliders...]
 
I do note that his BABIP has gone .328 -- .297 -- .299 -- .321, so tossing out his 2011 cup of coffee, last year he definitely saw a bit of bad luck. Not a ton. But if the luck improves, the walks get under control, and the strikeouts continue...? Is that too many ifs?
 
[Edit] I like this a tiny bit more if it means they're looking for a RHP, probably Shields (Scherzer?!?), and losing Amaro's cell number until their rotation is set.

 

[mloyko54]

Given Arizona wants pitching back I think guys like Ranaudo, Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes have to be in the discussion 

 

[opes]

Well currently the michigan donkeys have him on their team, so someone should tell the dbacks.

 

[amarshal2]

 
I don't like his chances of continuing to be a durable SP throwing 25% sliders -- that's not quite Francisco Liriano territory, but it's high.

 
Lester threw 31% cutters and 16% curveballs last year.  Is there a real difference?

 

[czar]

Thanks. I'll see if I can find the answer to the latter. 

 
League average last year per Jeff Zimmermann's data is 277 ft.

 

[Paradigm]

Won't be surprised to see Webster and Ranaudo go. I think the team questions Webster's makeup and Ranaudo's pure stuff. 
 
Barnes can still start, worst case scenario hit the bullpen. Rubby can be a shutdown reliever if they decide to pull the plug on the starting experiment.
 
If D-Backs want to trade 3 years of Miley for 10-12 of Webster/Ranaudo (not sure how many years Webster and Ranaudo have left) I doubt any other team will match. That's not bad math for them, and Webster/Ranaudo may play up in the NL West.
 
Sox aren't stupid. If Miley is the best those players can fetch, then Miley it is. Once you've proven you can get ML hitters out, you're on another plane. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
His average flyable flyball distance was 283.2 ft. I have no idea what league average is, though.

 
It seems logical--though I don't know if it's true--that GB pitchers would tend to have a higher HR/FB than FB pitchers, because a higher percentage of the FB they give up are likely to be mistakes.
 
 

Honest question here... I've read in a couple of posts now about how Miley or other pitchers might look good elsewhere but they wouldn't hack it in the AL East. Is this simply due to park factors or is this residual respect for the ghosts of offenses past? I know Toronto should be a good to great row of sluggers moving forward, but it's not like the Rays or MFY's are really all that daunting anymore. And it's not like the offenses in LA, Colorado and SF are or have been anything to sneeze at.

 
More about the parks than the offenses, although speaking of offenses you did leave out Baltimore which has a pretty good one. But it's a fair point overall--the AL East is not the powerhouse that once it was.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

This is not sounding good at all....if they trade Webster Owens Barnes RDLR or Rodriguez this will turn out bad. I could deal with Escobar and some lesser pieces going.

 
Tyrone, this post makes me sad.  Do you really think they would trade Owens or ERod for Wade Miley when they said they won't even trade them for Hamels?  Ben C knows his shit (except when it comes to relievers ).

 

[Corsi]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo  3s4 seconds ago
With Arizona's lack of catchers, would not be shocked to see #RedSox deal for Miley include Swihart or Vazquez.

 

[nvalvo]

 
League average last year per Jeff Zimmermann's data is 277 ft.

 
I got 272 using Baseball Savant's tool. Pretty close. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
Lester threw 31% cutters and 16% curveballs last year.  Is there a real difference?

 
Isn't the whole difference between the cutter and the slider, and the reason why so many pitching coaches are recommending the former, the fact that the cutter doesn't involve as much wrist rotation and so it's easier on the elbow?
 
 
 

 
Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo  3s4 seconds ago
With Arizona's lack of catchers, would not be shocked to see #RedSox deal for Miley include Swihart or Vazquez.
 

 
Say it ain't so, Ben. Swihart's not ready so it can't be Vazquez, and Swihart's too good a prospect to deal for a middling SP.

 

[soxhop411]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo  3s4 seconds ago
With Arizona's lack of catchers, would not be shocked to see #RedSox deal for Miley include Swihart or Vazquez.

I highly doubt that

 

[czar]

I'd definitely like to know more about that last line. Why more strikeouts? Was there a qualitative improvement in one of his secondary pitches? Did that same improvement come with some inconsistency that led to the walks? These numbers are a bit hard to decipher. 
 
I do note that his BABIP has gone .328 -- .297 -- .299 -- .321, so tossing out his 2011 cup of coffee, last year he definitely saw a bit of bad luck. Not a ton. But if the luck improves, the walks get under control, and the strikeouts continue...? Is that too many ifs?

 
Biggest SwStr% gains came on fastball/changeup. Actually saw a decrease in swinging strike rate with slider/curveball.
 
Increased slider usage, mainly at expense of fastball, probably sequencing played a big role in K% jump as opposed to abject stuff improvement.

 

[soxhop411]

“@BNightengale: The #Redsox currently are not involved in any trade discussions w #Dbacks for Wade Miley.”

Ha

 

[Paradigm]

 
Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo  3s4 seconds ago
With Arizona's lack of catchers, would not be shocked to see #RedSox deal for Miley include Swihart or Vazquez.
 

 
No chance in hell. 
 
Jesus Christ. The team decides to not give Jon Lester an absurdly large contract, and suddenly the front office is full of nitwits? Fuck me, the offseason brings out the worst in everyone.
 
Now excuse me while I go check Twitter.

 

[Youks Baltic Roots]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo   [URL="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/542797234253746176

https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/542797234253746176"]3s4

link to tweet seconds ago[/url]
With Arizona's lack of catchers, would not be shocked to see #RedSox deal for Miley include Swihart or Vazquez.

That would not be prudent, unless a lot more was involved.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo   [URL="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/542797234253746176

https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/542797234253746176"]3s4

link to tweet seconds ago[/url]
With Arizona's lack of catchers, would not be shocked to see #RedSox deal for Miley include Swihart or Vazquez.

Oh this better be just spitballing or part of a deal to get someone like Goldschmidt. There is no way they deal Swihart because they lost out on Lester. Right?

 

[amarshal2]

 
Isn't the whole difference between the cutter and the slider, and the reason why so many pitching coaches are recommending the former, the fact that the cutter doesn't involve as much wrist rotation and so it's easier on the elbow?

 
Maybe.  Someone else can weigh in if they think they know.  Watching Lester pitch he threw different variations of that cutter and it often moved just like a slider so I struggle to understand the difference.

 

[nvalvo]

 
Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo  3s4 seconds ago
With Arizona's lack of catchers, would not be shocked to see #RedSox deal for Miley include Swihart or Vazquez.
 

 
Umm... I know Cotillo is just speculating, but unless Goldschmidt's coming too, I don't think that's likely.

 

[MakMan44]

 
League average last year per Jeff Zimmermann's data is 277 ft.

Thanks.

So Miley was slightly above average but not obscenely so.

 

[Corsi]

Bob Nightengale ‏@BNightengale  20s20 seconds ago
The #Marlins still in picture for #Dbacks Miley