After learning not to cheat, young master Cora began to work on his personal understanding of the concept of "the Devil you know. . ."
Sox trade John Schreiber to KC for minor league right-hander David Sandlin
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
It may be amusing, but its also accurate.
Theres frequently a call around here to "sell high," a concept I usually think is fiction, because the other teams know the guy, too.
I think the Sox "sold high" here.
I don’t know squat about Sandlin aside from what I’ve read in this thread but I do like that, in both this and the Sale trade, Breslow has targeted a single upper level prospect to trade for as opposed to a volume trade which returns 3-4 nickels for a quarter. He’s filling slots. Now do Jansen.
Unless there's a particular target that becomes available, I think Jansen can wait. Even if he sucks in the 1st half, enough teams are still intoxicated by "closer" aroma that it wont depress his midseason value (assuming good health).
Agreed but what if the Sox overperform in the first half of the year and are in position to make the playoffs at the trade deadline? I think it’s plausible and being in contention would make it awful hard to trade Jansen. I’d prefer to make the trade now if the opportunity presents itself.
Curious if people would have been content with Sandlin, or a Sandlin-level prospect, for Kenley, assuming that the other team picked up all $16 million? Certainly Red Sox twitter would have gone nuclear ...
My thoughts on this are that this is the season that we actually find out what roles Whitlock and Houck will be best suited for. So far both have shown that they have the makeup to be difference makers at the back of the pen. I think we'll have a better idea in the next month or so as to how concerned we should be when Jansen might be moved.
That's where the fortitude and acumen of the GM comes into play. I hope Breslow has the acumen to judge whether "the position" is a mirage and has the fortitude to act on it.
Also, "In a position to make the playoffs" is a little abstract in February. (Not a criticism. Just an acknowledgement that *my* feelings will be easier to sort out at the time. 5 games up on a WC? 1 game out or even more peripheral? 1st place in the East because Craig Breslow mortgaged his soul?)
Ultimately though, except for the injury risk, I don't think there's a downside to waiting on Jensen if no deal materializes sooner. Deserved or not, his value has a performance-dependent floor that Schreiber and probably Martin do not.
Depends on what the Sox actually did with said savings.
For example, if it meant signing Montgomery (or even Snell at this point with so many other options off the table, but I’d drastically prefer Monty), I’d be happy with the Sox trading literally all of Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Winckowski, Whitlock, O’Neill and Refsnyder for a bag of eaten sunflower seeds, and using the money to sign a top half of the rotation starting pitcher long term.
If it meant just banking the salary (or deploying it on say $8m for Duvall and $8m for Lorenzen), I’d rather roll the dice on Jansen being worth more in July.
I‘d be on board with trading any of Martin, Winckowski, O’Neill or Refsnyder for this return.
For Whitlock, I’d think on it, but ultimately think I’d be bummed if it happened.
For Jansen (or Pivetta, I suppose), I think they’re worth more, at least if the salary were fully paid - which to be clear, I think the Sox should fully pay salaries of one year players to buy prospects right now.
I am confused by this. Schrieber has far more trade value than a 16mm Kenley Jansen.
If they got Sandlin for Jansen and the Royals paid the entire freight it would have been even more impressive.
Kenley Jansen at 16mm is getting a zero prospect. It would be a salary move.
I generally agree but also if there is a team well above the penalty then someone like Jansen will be a rounding error if it comes to a decision of wining it all and just making the playoffs.
For what it’s worth I was thinking along the lines of the Sale trade. Sox would partially subsidize Jansen to increase the return. They could still sign Montgomery. With or without KJ, I’m hopeful they will.
Jansen is old, with nagging injuries and just okay. He isn’t going to net anything close Sandlin.
Honestly, Schrieber shouldn’t have got it done either. Breslow found an overly aggressive buyer there. But I just don’t see it with Jansen. We will see.
At this point I think it’s probably worth trying to keep him for A) Helping the back end on a good team or B) selling him at the deadline if the team sucks
I agree with the bolded. Which would suggest that KC was probably the initiator in the trade talks. It makes a lot more sense to think that KC called seeking Schreiber and that's why they were willing to part with Sandlin than Breslow called offering Schrieber out of the blue and managed to weasel Sandlin out of them. It might not have even been that they were going after Schreiber specifically, and they talked Jansen and Martin too. Hence the reports earlier this week that the Sox were talking about/listening about all three guys.
If the other team picked up the $16 million and the Red Sox still came back with Sandlin, I would call that a heist by Craig Breslow.
A minor edit.
We are indeed likely to lose this trade but it is a reasonable one to make.
Schreiber may turn out to be a very good setup man who is under team control. Martin makes $ 7.5 million - and if Schreiber is as good as he was in '22 he is a valuable player. Maybe not as good as Martin is - but still a valuable major leaguer.
The odds of Sandlin ever getting to Boston are less than 50%. At some point maybe I will dump the numbers in a google sheet - but the track record of pitchers in the top 40 fangraphs prospects is pretty terrible.
So logically you need as many bullets in the gun as you can find because you are going to miss a lot.
No question they actively shopped Jansen and Martin. The ask was high. The response was well they are expensive and only have a year of control.
Let me Introduce you to John Schreiber.
The thing about bullpens is each guy, by himself, is not worth that much because he just doesn't pitch that much. A relief pitcher gives you 70 innings a year, tops, whereas position players give you hundreds upon hundreds of at-bats and play defense 9 innings a game, and starting pitchers are out there twice as much when healthy.
A good bullpen is about the cumulative effect of the group. I'm fine with shipping of Schreiber because we still have Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Houck, Murphy, Bernardino, and a number of other guys with good upside. Even if Schreiber bounces back, I feel much more confident in this bullpen than I did last year's bullpen.
A good bullpen is about the cumulative effect of the group. I'm fine with shipping of Schreiber because we still have Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Whitlock, Houck, Murphy, Bernardino, and a number of other guys with good upside. Even if Schreiber bounces back, I feel much more confident in this bullpen than I did last year's bullpen.
Jansen is already hurt, no one is going to trade for him right now. That might be one reason why they traded Schreiber--maybe they weren't getting any decent offers for Jansen, so they move a different RH reliever (a position of depth) for a promising young arm and open up the 26- and 40-man roster space too.
Given the current roster make up. Someone has to be the 5th starter. Maybe Whitlock looks amazing? Idk. I’m bearish on Whitlocks ability to start 20+ games in a season.
One of the things I am curious about is what happens if the Sox are really in it at the deadline?
Let’s also say it’s not a fluke. Bello has taken a big jump, and looks like a legit # 2, Giolito is healthy and dealing, and things look good. Breslow says I really need one more starting pitcher. I think ownership will certainly green light something small, ie, the Sox need to add 3-4 mill to the payroll. However what about if say Yu Darvish has a semi return to form and Breslow identifies him as someone he wants and can get cheap. The problem obviously is the contract. Breslow goes into ownership and says I think it’s the right thing. I think it gives us a top 3 that matches up. I want to do this but ownership you are going to have to
Swallow and swallow hard. They have said they will spend when the time is right. Will they prove it?
Let’s also say it’s not a fluke. Bello has taken a big jump, and looks like a legit # 2, Giolito is healthy and dealing, and things look good. Breslow says I really need one more starting pitcher. I think ownership will certainly green light something small, ie, the Sox need to add 3-4 mill to the payroll. However what about if say Yu Darvish has a semi return to form and Breslow identifies him as someone he wants and can get cheap. The problem obviously is the contract. Breslow goes into ownership and says I think it’s the right thing. I think it gives us a top 3 that matches up. I want to do this but ownership you are going to have to
Swallow and swallow hard. They have said they will spend when the time is right. Will they prove it?
I would have loved that trade, assuming that the $16m had been reallocated to an SP.
Darvish probably isn't the best example for your hypothetical. I can't imagine that he's going to be an attractive deadline guy even if he has a return to form specifically because of his contract. Not many teams trade for any player who has five years remaining on his deal unless he's in his prime (or close to it). Darvish is decidedly not that. For Darvish to get moved anywhere, not just Boston, it would probably involve the Pads pick up the bulk of the remaining contract, Hosmer-style.
I think if the Sox find themselves in contention because everything breaks right for them over the first 3+ months, they won't hesitate to bring on salary in a deadline trade so long as that salary doesn't extend beyond a couple years (barring somehow getting Yamamoto or something). Think Peavy in 2013 or something along that line, where they take on another year of commitment in order to get the second half boost they think they need.
Darvish plus some money is a possibility, especially toward the back end. That contract is kind of insane. Age 41??
That's easy. If the Padres fall out of contention, they trade Darvish for a low level prospect and a player to be named later. That player will be Yu Darvish.
I didn’t mean Darvish in particular, I was just trying to use an example of the Sox having to make a non insignificant financial outlay. Darvish’s horrendous contract was the first to come to mind.
I just really want to know if the Sox will spend as they have said they would if it’s the right situation. I have lost trust in them.
How about something like this in another unlikely one. Montgomery signs 3/75 with Texas. At time of signing Sox give a semi statement that they were at that financial commitment but they can’t help if the player doesn’t pick them..he wanted to play in his home state.
Fast forward to deadline, Montgomery is pitching well but Texas financial situation is unsteady/tv deal flops.
Texas offers Monty to Sox…the response is?
I just really want to know if the Sox will spend as they have said they would if it’s the right situation. I have lost trust in them.
How about something like this in another unlikely one. Montgomery signs 3/75 with Texas. At time of signing Sox give a semi statement that they were at that financial commitment but they can’t help if the player doesn’t pick them..he wanted to play in his home state.
Fast forward to deadline, Montgomery is pitching well but Texas financial situation is unsteady/tv deal flops.
Texas offers Monty to Sox…the response is?
Another not so great analogy. If the scenario is that they already made a comparable offer but Montgomery chooses the home state team, then why would we expect the team would say no to acquiring him and that comparable deal three months later if the season was going extremely well? At that point, it would be likely be much more about what they'd have to give up prospect-wise (which shouldn't be much if it's a salary dump by the Rangers) more than the cash outlay.
Matter of fact, in this hypothetical scenario where the Sox are clicking in every way come July, I think the prospect cost and how much they're willing to sacrifice future depth for one season's glory is the much larger question than whether or not they'd add significant salary to the payroll. I alluded to the 2013 Peavy deal earlier. In that, the biggest piece they gave up was Iglesias, who was rather redundant with Bogaerts emerging. A comparable move this summer might be trading Rafaela because Duran remains (or vice versa) plus they'd still have guys like Anthony in the pipeline.
The downside is that he’ll be as bad as the projections are forecasting, and we’ll have to watch that.
But yeah, I think the best-case scenario for a Jansen trade right now is a salary dump, and there aren’t many options left on the market to redeploy the money. (I don’t think the 2024 payroll is what’s keeping us from landing Snell or Montgomery.) So Jansen is likely our closer to start the season.
Interesting thing about the Sox Prospects scouting report. They said that he was a "Short strider with well below-average extension." It is unusual for a guy at 6-4 to be "well below average" extension.
Is this something they might try to fix? Is changing how far he extends to the plate possible without completely reworking... everything?
Is this something they might try to fix? Is changing how far he extends to the plate possible without completely reworking... everything?