Start, Sit, Trade: Play Along with Dave
- Thread starter nothumb
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I mean, regardless of how you evaluate him, his value is (likely) just going to go up once he finishes rehab. So trading him now shouldn't be on the table..
Anybody still think we might be in for Chapman? If you google Chapman and starter, there are a lot of articles and people who think Chapman could start instead of close. I wonder if that thought has crossed DD when he was doing background on him before they got Kimbrell. He apparently has been throwing his changeup more and has 3 pitches now. He used to start in Cuba and his 1st year in the minors. The only downside to any of this would be the fact that he is only signed for 1 year. If he failed as a starter we could always move him to the bullpen potentially and have an elite bullpen.
I think trading more prospects for Aroldis Chapman and paying him $13 million in 2016 in order to experiment with him as a starter would be a pretty risky idea, and not a good use of the remaining budget.
Chapman has said he doesn't want to start. He tried a few years ago and has made it very clear he won't do it again.
He also said he prefers to start before. He never said he refuses to start and more along the lines that he is comfortable closing which is what Cincy wanted him to do. I think when he sees the difference in money he'd make in free agency between starting and closing, he might revisit that idea if given the opportunity.
I agree, but worse case scenario would be they move him to a already strong bullpen if it didn't work out. Koji will eventually retire, so it might be crowded for a year, but I think if they did go after him in any capacity, they'd want to try and extend his contract beyond next year.
And then his agent pulls out a picture of Daniel Bard that he keeps in his wallet. And when you flip it over, it's a picture of Wade Davis.
I'm just saying that if the red sox asked him if he'd be interested in possibly starting next year, he probably would not say no.
I'm not saying it's a good idea either per se. I'm just curious if anyone thinks this is possible. Either way it sounds like he will be traded by the end of this weekend from reports out of Cincinnati.
I wonder why Macpherson thinks that? DD might have offered Owens instead of Margot to SD and been rebuffed. If Cleveland for example would take Owens as the centerpiece to a Carrasco deal, I think DD wouldn't hesitate. Too many assumptions and unknowns to be sure....
The Fangraphs top 50 trade values were brought up in the trade rumors thread and a glance through the names was interesting in that there are far more position players in comparison to pitchers. One name that was mildly intriguing,but risky, is crazy Yordano Ventura.
Contract
.$20 million over four guaranteed seasons, and if both options are exercised, they’re still only out $44 million over six years
The Risk
"But given Ventura’s size and a few elbow scares already, we shouldn’t count on those options absolutely being exercised; he might end up more of an early-peak guy if his arm doesn’t hold up or the stuff doesn’t come all the way back after rehab."
Most Recent status of said elbow - decreased stuff in the playoffs/WS.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-40-to-31/
What a Package may look like given the climate of insane prices for controllable young high upside pitching IMHO
It's been reported the Royals have interest in JBJ to create a Fly Ball graveyard in their OF with Cain. That obviously don't get the two sides closer to a deal with the Sox having to kick in more of an incentive. The Royals pitching staff could certainly benefit from a couple of additions.
Would adding a H. Owens or Brian Johnson and Wade innings eater on the relatively cheap Miley get them closer to a deal?
JBJ, Owens or Johnson, and Miley for Venutra still seems Red Sox slanted if only because of Ventura's youth and locked up prime (24- 30).Maybe adding Chavis or Travis as insurance plans for Moose or Hosmer makes it more compelling for KC, but on the other hand it would be another 4 for 1 deal for the Sox which you ideally like to avoid.
Ultimately, it comes down to the trust you have in the elbow. Further this piece about his tendency to have the ball pulled on and not miss bats even with velocity is more concerning. Almost Eovaldi like.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-weird-thing-about-hitting-yordano-ventura/
I started this off by seeing him ranked highly on that Fangraphs list. Further, research exposes more underlying issues/risk than I expected. Nevertheless, offering JBJ, Owens or Johnson, and Miley to gauge how the Royals feel about him might be worth the effort. Adding Chavis or Travis,while potentially making the deal more likely, would probably be a step too far.
Contract
.$20 million over four guaranteed seasons, and if both options are exercised, they’re still only out $44 million over six years
The Risk
"But given Ventura’s size and a few elbow scares already, we shouldn’t count on those options absolutely being exercised; he might end up more of an early-peak guy if his arm doesn’t hold up or the stuff doesn’t come all the way back after rehab."
Most Recent status of said elbow - decreased stuff in the playoffs/WS.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-40-to-31/
What a Package may look like given the climate of insane prices for controllable young high upside pitching IMHO
It's been reported the Royals have interest in JBJ to create a Fly Ball graveyard in their OF with Cain. That obviously don't get the two sides closer to a deal with the Sox having to kick in more of an incentive. The Royals pitching staff could certainly benefit from a couple of additions.
Would adding a H. Owens or Brian Johnson and Wade innings eater on the relatively cheap Miley get them closer to a deal?
JBJ, Owens or Johnson, and Miley for Venutra still seems Red Sox slanted if only because of Ventura's youth and locked up prime (24- 30).Maybe adding Chavis or Travis as insurance plans for Moose or Hosmer makes it more compelling for KC, but on the other hand it would be another 4 for 1 deal for the Sox which you ideally like to avoid.
Ultimately, it comes down to the trust you have in the elbow. Further this piece about his tendency to have the ball pulled on and not miss bats even with velocity is more concerning. Almost Eovaldi like.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-weird-thing-about-hitting-yordano-ventura/
I started this off by seeing him ranked highly on that Fangraphs list. Further, research exposes more underlying issues/risk than I expected. Nevertheless, offering JBJ, Owens or Johnson, and Miley to gauge how the Royals feel about him might be worth the effort. Adding Chavis or Travis,while potentially making the deal more likely, would probably be a step too far.
Probably not. The Royals have a two-year window left before half of their team hits free agency (Hosmer, Cain, Moustakas, Morales, Volquez, and Hochevar are all FAs after 2017). I don't think they would trade their best pitcher, on a very team-friendly deal, for JBJ, Wade Miley, and good but not great pitching prospect. In fact, coming off a World Series victory with their roster almost intact, I think Dayton Moore would be in a lot of trouble with ownership and the fan-base if he traded KS's #1 starter for what you proposed. It doesn't make the Royals better in 2016 or 2017 and you have to squint to see it as better for them in the long run.
If anything, I think the Royals would be looking to add pieces for the next two seasons to make the playoffs. Ventura is a very important part of that. Given the players you mentioned, I think it's much more likely that they look to add JBJ or Miley by trading prospects to the Red Sox.
If the Braves really are putting Freddie Freeman on the block in an attempt to wipe their contract slate (and tank the season), I hope we'd be in the conversation, a conversation that could include Julio Teheran, as well. The Braves are reportedly focused on getting pitching and defense back.
I have no idea what it would take beyond JBJ and Owens, but I'd be interested in finding out, and as a member of the rapidly dwindling Kimbrel Trade Skeptics' Club, I will politely note that they probably would have liked Javier Guerra a great deal given that they just dealt Simmons.
And, of course, we'd have to figure out what to do with Hanley Ramirez, but Freeman is the kind of cornerstone I'd be happy to have that problem for.
I have no idea what it would take beyond JBJ and Owens, but I'd be interested in finding out, and as a member of the rapidly dwindling Kimbrel Trade Skeptics' Club, I will politely note that they probably would have liked Javier Guerra a great deal given that they just dealt Simmons.
And, of course, we'd have to figure out what to do with Hanley Ramirez, but Freeman is the kind of cornerstone I'd be happy to have that problem for.
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Put a package together surrounding JBJ/other prospects and include Marrero if you want to give them a very good defensive SS.
They have
Except the Braves top positional prospect (and #2 overall only behind Newcomb who they got in the Simmon deal) is Ozzie Albies, an 18 yo SS who is two years younger but at the same level as Guerra, put up a very similar stat line (minus the HRs), and is ranked much higher, checking in in the top 30 on most lists. So I'm not sure that Guerra would have been the centerpiece for them.
Braves' MO these days is to stockpile young pitchers with a high upside, so they'd probably want Espinoza. And I would probably at least consider it for Freeman.
One familiar trading partner is no longer available to DD: Brian Cashman of the Spankees:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/13/sports/baseball/with-dave-dombrowskis-move-to-boston-red-sox-source-of-yankees-trades-dries-up.html?ref=baseball
“The Yankees and Red Sox — we don’t do deals,” Cashman said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/13/sports/baseball/with-dave-dombrowskis-move-to-boston-red-sox-source-of-yankees-trades-dries-up.html?ref=baseball
“The Yankees and Red Sox — we don’t do deals,” Cashman said.
Coming as it is from the Yankees side, the irony of this statement is delicious.
Re Chapman starting: - his velocity dropped to about 92 mph during his first run. Plus, since he only has two good pitches, suspect control, and pitch inefficiency anyhow, I can't imagine any team acquiring him wanting to go that route again.
So with the Ortiz annoucement - does this change the Red Sox thinking for this offseason in terms of adding a power bat - or is that something they will wait to address next offseason when Bautista and Encarnacion are available.
If Jose Fernandez is available, what would that package look like? Moncada, Owens, Bradley? Does that get it done, who says no to that?
Well, absent any other trades, where would they play said power bat in 2016?
The plan is to try Hanley at first in 2016. If he fails, he'll be pretty much untradeable, and will share the DH spot with Ortiz, taking over full time at Ortiz's retirement. If he's adequate or good (stranger things have happened), it gives the Sox more options in terms of trading for or signing a bat.
Question: with Hanley (almost) certain to replace Papi at DH in 2017, how far away is Sam Travis and is it possible the Sox would think about a R/L platoon of the two Travis' at 1B, thereby saving money for a "big bat" in another position?
Sam hit .300 .384 .436 with 34k vs 33bb in 243 ABs in Portland and isn't a huge HR threat yet, but he is only 22 and hit .370 .475 .696 against lefties in AA (albeit in very limited opportunities - 46 AB vs LHP, 197 vs RHP). I guess, it would all depend on his numbers this year, but just another name to throw out there.
Sam hit .300 .384 .436 with 34k vs 33bb in 243 ABs in Portland and isn't a huge HR threat yet, but he is only 22 and hit .370 .475 .696 against lefties in AA (albeit in very limited opportunities - 46 AB vs LHP, 197 vs RHP). I guess, it would all depend on his numbers this year, but just another name to throw out there.
Based on what Kimbrel just fetched, the Marlins say no. They'll need a current, higher upside MLBer to front the deal, along with high upside mLers. JBJ and Owens aren't it. X and Betts probably are. X, Moncada, Owens. That'd get their attention, if they're actually listening at all. But I wouldn't do it.
He spent half the season at Portland and hit pretty well. I would imagine that even if he goes back to Portland to start 2016, a decent performance puts him in Pawtucket to end the season which puts him in the mix for 2017 even if it's probably not to start the season.
The Kimbrel trade has nothing to do with a potential Fernandez trade (aside from the fact that it took two expendable top-50 prospects out of our arsenal, grr...).
Fernandez has three years of control, during one (2016) of which he's likely to be on an innings count, having just come back from Tommy John surgery. I wouldn't trade four years of Bogaerts for him straight-up. I'd offer something like Swihart, JBJ, Teddy Stankiewicz, and Ty Buttrey for Fernandez and Marcell Ozuna, and that's only if I had a lot of confidence in Fernandez's medicals and little confidence that I could find my frontline starter elsewhere.
ETA: The Marlins might well hang up on that offer. If so, I wouldn't call back. The Kimbrel trade was a MASSIVE overpay, but you could at least argue that he was the guy to overpay for among closers. I don't think Fernandez is that guy among starters.
Really? You are unable to glean anything about the current trade market for pitching from a review of the Kimbrel trade (and our 300 page thread dissecting it)? The point isn't that they're the same players or exact same commodities, the point is that if you want an elite, cost-controlled young arm, you're gonna pay through the nose for it. Fernandez is even younger than Kimbrel, will pitch far more innings (being a starter), and is dirt cheap. DD has already hinted that he has found the trade market for starters to be too steep.
The Marlins aren't likely to move Fernandez; why should they? You have to ask yourself what you'd do if you were them. Fernandez has already shown Cy Young-caliber ability. If you were their GM, would you bet your job on Swihart and JBJ meeting or exceeding his value over the next 3 years? The other two are throw-ins - interesting, but icing on the cake. IMO, they'd want something surer. But maybe Swihart, JBJ and Moncada would interest them. I would think they'd want another solid, young, cheap starter (like Owens) to stick in the rotation now, though.
We do seem to agree that whatever it would actually take would be too much from our side.
What I gleaned about the current trade market for pitching from a review of the Kimbrel trade is that Dave Dombrowski doesn't really care about the current trade market for pitching. I'll happily eat my hat if every pitcher traded this off-season fetches a price proportionate to what we paid for Kimbrel, but the next available data point (the middling return the Brewers got for K-Rod) doesn't seem to support your theory that it's an extreme seller's market for established pitchers. Indeed, it makes me even more confident in my (depressing) belief that Dombrowski just really wanted the indisputably awesome Craig Kimbrel and didn't care a ton about the value proposition involved.
And, to answer your question, if I were the Marlins, I would be looking for a trade partner who just really wants Fernandez and doesn't care a ton about the value proposition involved (I'd probably start by calling Dombrowski and asking for a ridiculous overpay like Swihart, JBJ, and Moncada). Failing that, I'd probably hold him until July or next winter, when there are likely to be far fewer options for needy teams -- indeed, I actually think it should logically be a *buyer's* market for pitching right now, what with the plethora of free agents and trade targets potentially available.
If DD can get Fernandez for Swihart, JBJ and Moncada, not only is that not a ridiculous overpay it's a move any GM would make in a cocaine heartbeat.
That was my initial thought as well, yet it's worth noting that we are less then a year removed from dropping $60m just to get Moncada.
DD may love it, but not sure Henry signs off on that.
Well, sorry, that's not what I said and wasn't my point. I said "elite, cost-controlled young arm." That doesn't describe K-Rod. At all.
Let's see if any other excellent, age 28 or younger, under contract/control for multiple years pitchers get dealt this offseason and, if they do, what they cost. Rumors are that the Reds want a package for Chapman comparable to what the Sox gave up for Kimbrel, and he's only controlled for 1 more year.
I'm not sure I get why Moncada's acquisition price would matter. We paid the $60M to acquire an asset to improve the team. Whatever DD judges to be the best way to use that asset to improve the team, Henry should be OK with it; if not, then maybe he hired the wrong guy.
That said, I think a 23-year-old potential two-way star catcher coming off a successful rookie year, plus a cost-controlled elite defensive CF who finally began to show signs of offensive competence this year, plus the current #8 overall prospect according to mlb.com, may be too much to offer for one SP, even one as good as Fernandez. And if that's the market, that explains why DD wants to pass.
Jose Fernandez will be nearly two years removed from Tommy John at the start of the 2016 season. He is not just coming back from surgery and will not be on any sort of innings limit.
He bounced back quickly throwing 24 rehab innings, followed by 64 excellent MLB innings - all his numbers are line (more or less) with his pre-surgery numbers. Despite the numbers, Fernandez has a bit of a question attached to him. In his rookie year, he often finished the 7th and 8th (13 of 28 starts) and threw a curve. This year he didn't throw the curve nearly as much, and only pitched into the 7th twice in 11 games. Some of that may just be care in his first year back post-surgery, or small sample size, but he often went up to 95 pitches or so, which is fairly usual for his historical use.
I'm sure there's a more sophisticated analysis out there, but if he repeats 2015, he does not look like a Cy type pitcher. An excellent starter, yes, but not an elite one.
I'd almost be hesitant to do a straight swap with Owens, mostly because Owens is pre-arb and has shown flashes of brilliance.
I get your cautions about Fernandez, but this is hyperbole, right? I mean, Fernandez has been FAR better than Owens at the MLB level, pre and post-surgery, with an xFIP of 2.82 across 289 innings. And they're almost exactly the same age. I understand the value of controllable years, but Owens is a lesser player with a significantly lower projected ceiling and floor over the next 3 years. If DD could get Fernandez for Owens, Jose would be wearing a Sox cap already.
Hence the word "almost." Fernandez is likely to excel, and he's likely to out-produce Owens by a fair margin. On the other hand, I can see a scenario where Fernandez has continued arm problems and/or becomes a 6 inning SP for the next three years, while Owens gives us similar or better production for a pre-arb salary. And because of that, I get a little leery about backing up the truck for Fernandez.
Think about it this way - I wouldn't swap Fernandez for E-Rod, even though, statistically, Fernandez has a better xFIP. I might for Owens, but wouldn't give up Owens plus significant pieces.
Minneapolis Millers said: ↑
I get your cautions about Fernandez, but this is hyperbole, right? I mean, Fernandez has been FAR better than Owens at the MLB level, pre and post-surgery, with an xFIP of 2.82 across 289 innings. And they're almost exactly the same age. I understand the value of controllable years, but Owens is a lesser player with a significantly lower projected ceiling and floor over the next 3 years. If DD could get Fernandez for Owens, Jose would be wearing a Sox cap already.
Putting together a deal that also brings in Marcell Ozuna would be great. However, the cost will be high. Owens would likely only get us Ozuna so there is a great deal of back filling that will be needed. Miami needs a catcher and help in the pen. They'll also need a starter who can step in and produce immediately. We're talking Kelly & Miley. Kelly based on his finish (6-1) and Miley for his inning eating abilities. Is this where we offer up Swihart? I imagine we could offer up Barnes, Workman, Hembree & Ross to stock their pen. Whatever, it comes down to it will be expensive.
They'd both be nice additions.
I get your cautions about Fernandez, but this is hyperbole, right? I mean, Fernandez has been FAR better than Owens at the MLB level, pre and post-surgery, with an xFIP of 2.82 across 289 innings. And they're almost exactly the same age. I understand the value of controllable years, but Owens is a lesser player with a significantly lower projected ceiling and floor over the next 3 years. If DD could get Fernandez for Owens, Jose would be wearing a Sox cap already.
Loria is pissed at Ozuna. He has soured on an extension with Fernandez. Loria seems to be a tad unstable so one can only guess at what he'll do.
Putting together a deal that also brings in Marcell Ozuna would be great. However, the cost will be high. Owens would likely only get us Ozuna so there is a great deal of back filling that will be needed. Miami needs a catcher and help in the pen. They'll also need a starter who can step in and produce immediately. We're talking Kelly & Miley. Kelly based on his finish (6-1) and Miley for his inning eating abilities. Is this where we offer up Swihart? I imagine we could offer up Barnes, Workman, Hembree & Ross to stock their pen. Whatever, it comes down to it will be expensive.
They'd both be nice additions.
I would trade both Owens and Rodriguez for Fernandez. You are drastically under rating Fernandez
Sorry about the English and grammar but I'm a simple minded physicist and computer geek. Sometimes I think I'm back in college surrounded by Liberal Arts under-grads.
Not really. It would be great if Loria would but I doubt it. He may be a tad mad but he is not stupid. I imagine he'd want the likes of Betts and Bogaerts along with Swihart, Owens and possibly one or two prized prospects. I guess I was just hoping his insanity would rule just long enough for him to do one last great act of stupidity before the fans burned down his house.
You're surrounded by people from all walks of life. One thing we do all have in common is that we've found it much easier to understand what someone is saying if they use grammar and spell words correctly. If you can't be bothered, don't post.
If you offered Betts, Boegarts, Swihart, Owens plus a couple of of good prospects you could trade for almost anyone, including Trout. And then everyone would laugh at you.
Question for you and the other folks who have been including Swihart in trade packages, who catches besides Hanigan?
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That is the crux of so many discussions found on several of the threads. In order to trade for great players it will cost you great players. If you trade Bogaerts who do you get to play short. Trade Siwhart and who catches besides Hanigan. Does trading a solid, even great position player justify a solid or great pitcher. Does filling a hole in your roster with a great player make sense when you've created another hole where once was a great player.
So far DD has done nicely. Picking up Kimbrel was a good move but it was costly. However, he has not damaged the team greatly by trading for Kimbrel. You may actually think he has strengthen it. Can he pull off another trade without having a more direct impact on the team, maybe, but doubtful. I think at this point DD needs to go to the FA market to fill the holes remaining.
For me, anyway, trading Swihart is dependent on my confidence that Vazquez is going to return to form. It would be nice if we had some winter league data, but I assume they'll be working him out and getting reports from doctors. If I'm confident that he's going to bounce back, but feel like he might need a month at AAA, I'm okay with half a season of Hanigan and a cheap free agent like Carlos Corporan holding down the fort until then.