Does it even matter anymore, with Asuaje gone?I think things are going to be ok
I mean, regardless of how you evaluate him, his value is (likely) just going to go up once he finishes rehab. So trading him now shouldn't be on the table..I'm hoping Vazquez missing from the list is an oversight.
He also said he prefers to start before. He never said he refuses to start and more along the lines that he is comfortable closing which is what Cincy wanted him to do. I think when he sees the difference in money he'd make in free agency between starting and closing, he might revisit that idea if given the opportunity.Chapman has said he doesn't want to start. He tried a few years ago and has made it very clear he won't do it again.
I agree, but worse case scenario would be they move him to a already strong bullpen if it didn't work out. Koji will eventually retire, so it might be crowded for a year, but I think if they did go after him in any capacity, they'd want to try and extend his contract beyond next year.I think trading more prospects for Aroldis Chapman and paying him $13 million in 2016 in order to experiment with him as a starter would be a pretty risky idea, and not a good use of the remaining budget.
And then his agent pulls out a picture of Daniel Bard that he keeps in his wallet. And when you flip it over, it's a picture of Wade Davis.He also said he prefers to start before. He never said he refuses to start and more along the lines that he is comfortable closing which is what Cincy wanted him to do. I think when he sees the difference in money he'd make in free agency between starting and closing, he might revisit that idea if given the opportunity.
I'm just saying that if the red sox asked him if he'd be interested in possibly starting next year, he probably would not say no.And then his agent pulls out a picture of Daniel Bard that he keeps in his wallet. And when you flip it over, it's a picture of Wade Davis.
I'm not saying it's a good idea either per se. I'm just curious if anyone thinks this is possible. Either way it sounds like he will be traded by the end of this weekend from reports out of Cincinnati.Neither would I, it doesn't make it a good idea.
Probably not. The Royals have a two-year window left before half of their team hits free agency (Hosmer, Cain, Moustakas, Morales, Volquez, and Hochevar are all FAs after 2017). I don't think they would trade their best pitcher, on a very team-friendly deal, for JBJ, Wade Miley, and good but not great pitching prospect. In fact, coming off a World Series victory with their roster almost intact, I think Dayton Moore would be in a lot of trouble with ownership and the fan-base if he traded KS's #1 starter for what you proposed. It doesn't make the Royals better in 2016 or 2017 and you have to squint to see it as better for them in the long run.Would adding a H. Owens or Brian Johnson and Wade innings eater on the relatively cheap Miley get them closer to a deal?
Put a package together surrounding JBJ/other prospects and include Marrero if you want to give them a very good defensive SS.If the Braves really are putting Freddie Freeman on the block in an attempt to wipe their contract slate (and tank the season), I hope we'd be in the conversation, a conversation that could include Julio Teheran, as well. The Braves are reportedly focused on getting pitching and defense back.
I will I have no idea what it would take beyond JBJ and Owens, but I'd be interested in finding out, and as a member of the rapidly dwindling Kimbrel Trade Skeptics' Club, I will politely note that they probably would have liked Javier Guerra a great deal given that they just dealt Simmons.
And, of course, we'd have to figure out what to do with Hanley Ramirez, but Freeman is the kind of cornerstone I'd be happy to have that problem for.
Except the Braves top positional prospect (and #2 overall only behind Newcomb who they got in the Simmon deal) is Ozzie Albies, an 18 yo SS who is two years younger but at the same level as Guerra, put up a very similar stat line (minus the HRs), and is ranked much higher, checking in in the top 30 on most lists. So I'm not sure that Guerra would have been the centerpiece for them.I have no idea what it would take beyond JBJ and Owens, but I'd be interested in finding out, and as a member of the rapidly dwindling Kimbrel Trade Skeptics' Club, I will politely note that they probably would have liked Javier Guerra a great deal given that they just dealt Simmons.
Coming as it is from the Yankees side, the irony of this statement is delicious.One familiar trading partner is no longer available to DD: Brian Cashman of the Spankees:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/13/sports/baseball/with-dave-dombrowskis-move-to-boston-red-sox-source-of-yankees-trades-dries-up.html?ref=baseball
“The Yankees and Red Sox — we don’t do deals,” Cashman said.
Well, absent any other trades, where would they play said power bat in 2016?So with the Ortiz annoucement - does this change the Red Sox thinking for this offseason in terms of adding a power bat - or is that something they will wait to address next offseason when Bautista and Encarnacion are available.
Based on what Kimbrel just fetched, the Marlins say no. They'll need a current, higher upside MLBer to front the deal, along with high upside mLers. JBJ and Owens aren't it. X and Betts probably are. X, Moncada, Owens. That'd get their attention, if they're actually listening at all. But I wouldn't do it.If Jose Fernandez is available, what would that package look like? Moncada, Owens, Bradley? Does that get it done, who says no to that?
He spent half the season at Portland and hit pretty well. I would imagine that even if he goes back to Portland to start 2016, a decent performance puts him in Pawtucket to end the season which puts him in the mix for 2017 even if it's probably not to start the season.Question: with Hanley (almost) certain to replace Papi at DH in 2017, how far away is Sam Travis and is it possible the Sox would think about a R/L platoon of the two Travis' at 1B, thereby saving money for a "big bat" in another position?
Sam hit .300 .384 .436 with 34k vs 33bb in 243 ABs in Portland and isn't a huge HR threat yet, but he is only 22 and hit .370 .475 .696 against lefties in AA (albeit in very limited opportunities - 46 AB vs LHP, 197 vs RHP). I guess, it would all depend on his numbers this year, but just another name to throw out there.
The Kimbrel trade has nothing to do with a potential Fernandez trade (aside from the fact that it took two expendable top-50 prospects out of our arsenal, grr...).Based on what Kimbrel just fetched, the Marlins say no. They'll need a current, higher upside MLBer to front the deal, along with high upside mLers. JBJ and Owens aren't it. X and Betts probably are. X, Moncada, Owens. That'd get their attention, if they're actually listening at all. But I wouldn't do it.
Really? You are unable to glean anything about the current trade market for pitching from a review of the Kimbrel trade (and our 300 page thread dissecting it)? The point isn't that they're the same players or exact same commodities, the point is that if you want an elite, cost-controlled young arm, you're gonna pay through the nose for it. Fernandez is even younger than Kimbrel, will pitch far more innings (being a starter), and is dirt cheap. DD has already hinted that he has found the trade market for starters to be too steep.The Kimbrel trade has nothing to do with a potential Fernandez trade ....
What I gleaned about the current trade market for pitching from a review of the Kimbrel trade is that Dave Dombrowski doesn't really care about the current trade market for pitching. I'll happily eat my hat if every pitcher traded this off-season fetches a price proportionate to what we paid for Kimbrel, but the next available data point (the middling return the Brewers got for K-Rod) doesn't seem to support your theory that it's an extreme seller's market for established pitchers. Indeed, it makes me even more confident in my (depressing) belief that Dombrowski just really wanted the indisputably awesome Craig Kimbrel and didn't care a ton about the value proposition involved.Really? You are unable to glean anything about the current trade market for pitching from a review of the Kimbrel trade (and our 300 page thread dissecting it)?
If DD can get Fernandez for Swihart, JBJ and Moncada, not only is that not a ridiculous overpay it's a move any GM would make in a cocaine heartbeat.What I gleaned about the current trade market for pitching from a review of the Kimbrel trade is that Dave Dombrowski doesn't really care about the current trade market for pitching. I'll happily eat my hat if every pitcher traded this off-season fetches a price proportionate to what we paid for Kimbrel, but the next available data point (the middling return the Brewers got for K-Rod) doesn't seem to support your theory that it's an extreme seller's market for established pitchers. Indeed, it makes me even more confident in my (depressing) belief that Dombrowski just really wanted the indisputably awesome Craig Kimbrel and didn't care a ton about the value proposition involved.
And, to answer your question, if I were the Marlins, I would be looking for a trade partner who just really wants Fernandez and doesn't care a ton about the value proposition involved (I'd probably start by calling Dombrowski and asking for a ridiculous overpay like Swihart, JBJ, and Moncada). Failing that, I'd probably hold him until July or next winter, when there are likely to be far fewer options for needy teams -- indeed, I actually think it should logically be a *buyer's* market for pitching right now, what with the plethora of free agents and trade targets potentially available.
That was my initial thought as well, yet it's worth noting that we are less then a year removed from dropping $60m just to get Moncada.If DD can get Fernandez for Swihart, JBJ and Moncada, not only is that not a ridiculous overpay it's a move any GM would make in a cocaine heartbeat.
Well, sorry, that's not what I said and wasn't my point. I said "elite, cost-controlled young arm." That doesn't describe K-Rod. At all....I'll happily eat my hat if every pitcher traded this off-season fetches a price proportionate to what we paid for Kimbrel, but the next available data point (the middling return the Brewers got for K-Rod) doesn't seem to support your theory that it's an extreme seller's market for established pitchers...
I'm not sure I get why Moncada's acquisition price would matter. We paid the $60M to acquire an asset to improve the team. Whatever DD judges to be the best way to use that asset to improve the team, Henry should be OK with it; if not, then maybe he hired the wrong guy.That was my initial thought as well, yet it's worth noting that we are less then a year removed from dropping $60m just to get Moncada.
DD may love it, but not sure Henry signs off on that.
He bounced back quickly throwing 24 rehab innings, followed by 64 excellent MLB innings - all his numbers are line (more or less) with his pre-surgery numbers. Despite the numbers, Fernandez has a bit of a question attached to him. In his rookie year, he often finished the 7th and 8th (13 of 28 starts) and threw a curve. This year he didn't throw the curve nearly as much, and only pitched into the 7th twice in 11 games. Some of that may just be care in his first year back post-surgery, or small sample size, but he often went up to 95 pitches or so, which is fairly usual for his historical use.Jose Fernandez will be nearly two years removed from Tommy John at the start of the 2016 season. He is not just coming back from surgery and will not be on any sort of innings limit.
I get your cautions about Fernandez, but this is hyperbole, right? I mean, Fernandez has been FAR better than Owens at the MLB level, pre and post-surgery, with an xFIP of 2.82 across 289 innings. And they're almost exactly the same age. I understand the value of controllable years, but Owens is a lesser player with a significantly lower projected ceiling and floor over the next 3 years. If DD could get Fernandez for Owens, Jose would be wearing a Sox cap already....I'd almost be hesitant to do a straight swap with Owens, mostly because Owens is pre-arb and has shown flashes of brilliance.
Hence the word "almost." Fernandez is likely to excel, and he's likely to out-produce Owens by a fair margin. On the other hand, I can see a scenario where Fernandez has continued arm problems and/or becomes a 6 inning SP for the next three years, while Owens gives us similar or better production for a pre-arb salary. And because of that, I get a little leery about backing up the truck for Fernandez.I get your cautions about Fernandez, but this is hyperbole, right? I mean, Fernandez has been FAR better than Owens at the MLB level, pre and post-surgery, with an xFIP of 2.82 across 289 innings. And they're almost exactly the same age. I understand the value of controllable years, but Owens is a lesser player with a significantly lower projected ceiling and floor over the next 3 years. If DD could get Fernandez for Owens, Jose would be wearing a Sox cap already.
Loria is pissed at Ozuna. He has soured on an extension with Fernandez. Loria seems to be a tad unstable so one can only guess at what he'll do.Hence the word "almost." Fernandez is likely to excel, and he's likely to out-produce Owens by a fair margin. On the other hand, I can see a scenario where Fernandez has continued arm problems and/or becomes a 6 inning SP for the next three years, while Owens gives us similar or better production for a pre-arb salary. And because of that, I get a little leery about backing up the truck for Fernandez.
Think about it this way - I wouldn't swap Fernandez for E-Rod, even though, statistically, Fernandez has a better xFIP. I might for Owens, but wouldn't give up Owens plus significant pieces.
If I read this correctly (and that's admittedly difficult to do), you're proposing:Putting together a deal that also brings in Marcell Ozuna would be great. However, the cost will be high. Owens would likely only get us Ozuna so there is a great deal of back filling that will be needed. Miami needs a catcher and help in the pen. They'll also need a starter who can step in and produce immediately. We're talking Kelly & Miley. Kelly based on his finish (6-1) and Miley for his inning eating abilities. Is this where we offer up Swihart? I imagine we could offer up Barnes, Workman, Hembree & Ross to stock their pen. Whatever, it comes down to it will be expensive.
I would trade both Owens and Rodriguez for Fernandez. You are drastically under rating FernandezThink about it this way - I wouldn't swap Fernandez for E-Rod, even though, statistically, Fernandez has a better xFIP. I might for Owens, but wouldn't give up Owens plus significant pieces.
Sorry about the English and grammar but I'm a simple minded physicist and computer geek. Sometimes I think I'm back in college surrounded by Liberal Arts under-grads.If I read this correctly (and that's admittedly difficult to do), you're proposing:
Red Sox get: Fernandez, Ozuna
Marlins get: Owens, Swihart, Miley/Kelly, Barnes, Workman, Hembree & Ross
You're surrounded by people from all walks of life. One thing we do all have in common is that we've found it much easier to understand what someone is saying if they use grammar and spell words correctly. If you can't be bothered, don't post.Sorry about the English and grammar but I'm a simple minded physicist and computer geek. Sometimes I think I'm back in college surrounded by Liberal Arts under-grads.
Not really. It would be great if Loria would but I doubt it. He may be a tad mad but he is not stupid. I imagine he'd want the likes of Betts and Bogaerts along with Swihart, Owens and possibly one or two prized prospects. I guess I was just hoping his insanity would rule just long enough for him to do one last great act of stupidity before the fans burned down his house.
That is the crux of so many discussions found on several of the threads. In order to trade for great players it will cost you great players. If you trade Bogaerts who do you get to play short. Trade Siwhart and who catches besides Hanigan. Does trading a solid, even great position player justify a solid or great pitcher. Does filling a hole in your roster with a great player make sense when you've created another hole where once was a great player.You're surrounded by people from all walks of life. One thing we do all have in common is that we've found it much easier to understand what someone is saying if they use grammar and spell words correctly. If you can't be bothered, don't post.
If you offered Betts, Boegarts, Swihart, Owens plus a couple of of good prospects you could trade for almost anyone, including Trout. And then everyone would laugh at you.
Question for you and the other folks who have been including Swihart in trade package, who catches besides Hanigan?
For me, anyway, trading Swihart is dependent on my confidence that Vazquez is going to return to form. It would be nice if we had some winter league data, but I assume they'll be working him out and getting reports from doctors. If I'm confident that he's going to bounce back, but feel like he might need a month at AAA, I'm okay with half a season of Hanigan and a cheap free agent like Carlos Corporan holding down the fort until then.Question for you and the other folks who have been including Swihart in trade packages, who catches besides Hanigan?