The 2015 49ers: Busted Kap.

coremiller

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Seems like this team needs its own thread, and as the resident 49er fan I'll start it.  Coming off a bizarre and largely disastrous 8-8 season, the team has had a totally bizarre and mostly disastrous off-season so far:
 
1) They fired Jim Harbaugh, who was 44-19-1, made three straight conference championship games and one Super Bowl, and resurrected the franchise from a decade of oblivion.  Owner Jed York then gave an interview in which he repeatedly stressed that "Winning isn’t the only thing matters. Winning with class is what matters."
2) After a lengthy, at times wacky search, they hired as his replacement Jim Tomsula, their defensive line coach whose only HC experience is one season in NFL Europe and has never even been an NFL coordinator.  Tomsula's intro press conference was a debacle and reassured exactly nobody that he had the ability and experience to handle the job.  
3) Tomsula's hiring also cost them elite defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who got passed over for the HC role and left for Chicago.  It also cost them Adam Gase, who supposedly had an agreement to be HC until the 49ers insisted that Tomsula would have to be Gase's defensive coordinator, at which point Gase refused and backed out, and then not surprisingly had no interest in being offensive coordinator under Tomsula.  The team promoted Eric Mangini to defensive coordinator and QB coach Geep Chryst to offensive coordinator.
4) 5-time all-pro middle linebacker Patrick Willis has retired
5) Franchise rushing record holder Frank Gore is leaving in free agency
6) There were rumors recently that the team was trying to trade Kaepernick.
7) Standout DE Justin Smith is considering retiring.
8) They signed WR Jerome Simpson in free agency.  Simpson did not play last season after being cut by Minnesota while suspended for a reckless driving arrest and has a lengthy rap sheet.
9) FB Bruce Miller was arrested yesterday on spousal battery charges.
 
It's hard to think of a team that has fallen farther faster than this one. 
 
1) They have a deal free agent WR Torrey Smith, which 
2) They signed DT Darnell Dockett.  
 
Remaining important free agents:  Pro-bowl LG Mike Iupati seems likely to sign with Arizona.  WR Michael Crabtree is unlikely to return.  CBs Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox are UFAs and they need to either be resigned or replaced.  Both played well last year and Cox especially was a pleasant surprise.
 
They've signed Torrey Smith and Darnell Dockett in FA so far.  Smith fills a big hole by [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]providing a speedy deep threat on the outside that the team badly needed; [/SIZE][SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Dockett is 33 and missed last season with an ACL tear but was an excellent player prior to his injury.  Dockett gets bonus points for having one of the NFL's most interesting twitter accounts.  They restructured Aldon Smith's contract to give them flexibility in case he gets into trouble again.  [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Biggest holes: Even with all the turmoil, this is still a strong roster with few glaring weaknesses  They have to replace Iupati.  The in-house candidate is Brandon Thomas, whom they drafted last year in the third round as one of Baalke's redshirt picks after Thomas tore his ACL in pre-draft workouts.  He was considered a high 2nd/low 1st prospect before getting hurt, but nobody knows if he'll be actually be any good, so they could also bring in a FA.  They need CBs, especially if they don't resign Culliver and Cox.  Smith filled the deep-threat need, and the WR depth chart now looks like Boldin, Smith, Ellington, [/SIZE][SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Simpson, [/SIZE][SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Patton.  They need DL depth, even after signing Dockett, and especially if Justin Smith retires.  And they may need a new FB if they have to cut Miller after his arrest.[/SIZE]
 

coremiller

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
By my count, 8 of the 11 defensive starters from the SB team 25 months ago are gone.
 
If Justin Smith retires and Ahmad Brooks gets cut (he's a likely cap casualty), Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman will be the only remaining defensive starters.
 
On offense, it's quite possible that Iupati, Crabtree, and Miller will be gone, which would leave only Kaepernick, Vernon Davis, Joe Staley, Alex Boone, and Anthony Davis.
 

scott bankheadcase

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To me, most of the media is missing the actual question marks on this team -- which you do hit on.
 
-- Willis hurts, but Chris Borland was almost as good last season, and hopefully Bowman returns to form
 
-- Justin Smith had a myriad of injury issues and the niners invested in Dockett. Aldon Smith missed the majority of the season and will bolster that front.
 
-- Gore was a leader, but it's arguable that Hyde was better even last season
 
-- Iupati was never healthy and if Thomas is healthy, he has the skills to be a upper echelon starter.
 
-- Smith should be able to do things at the WR position that Crabtree didn't, and be a better complement to Boldin
 
Which leads us to Culliver and Cox. The cornerback position, which is not being dissected because of the "big names" leaving is what is the real problem right now. Both were capable starters and if the niners take even a small step back in their front 7, that position will become even more important. 
 

coremiller

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Some updates here:
 
-- The 49ers made the Torrey Smith signing official.  Smith got 40m over 5 years, with 22m mostly guaranteed.  His 8m signing bonus and part of his 2015 salary is fully guaranteed; the rest of the 22m is structured as roster bonuses that are guaranteed for injury now but only become fully guaranteed on a rolling annual basis, so if Smith gets hurt, he gets all the money, but if he's not hurt and the team wants to cut him, he doesn't.  This is not the first time the 49ers have used this contract structure; Kaepernick's contract is similar.  It's a lot of money for a player who has had only one 1000-yard season, but he's only 26 so they should be getting his prime years, and he fills a big need.
 
-- Stevie Johnson was cut.  A straight cap move, Johnson had a cap number of 6.025m which is too high for a #3 receiver.  There's talk they may still try to bring him back at a reduced salary, but I don't see it.
 
-- Mike Iupati signed with Arizona for 5 years and 40m, with 22.5 guaranteed.  He also said he played through a broken foot last year.  Painful to see him go to a division rival.  
 
-- Chris Culliver has signed with Washington for 4/32 (no word yet on guarantees), a big deal for a guy who has had exactly one full season as a starter.  The CB market is crazy this year.
 
-- Backup LB Dan Skuta got a strangely large deal from Jacksonville.
 
-- No news at all on Michael Crabtree, although the Smith signing means it's very unlikely he'll return.
 
-- Backup TEs Garrett Celek and Derek Carrier re-signed.  Both had injuries last year.  
 
-- Blaine Gabbert was re-signed as the backup QB.  The good news is, he's cheap, signing for 2m over 2 years.  The bad news is, he sucks.  But most backup QBs suck, and the ones who don't cost too much.
 
The biggest remaining need is CB.  We'll see what happens with Cox.  I'd expect them to draft a CB with their first few picks, although maybe not in the first round -- they've used their first round pick on the secondary the last two years.
 

Corsi

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How has this thread not been renamed "Escape From Alcatraz" yet?
 

dcmissle

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Corsi said:
How has this thread not been renamed "Escape From Alcatraz" yet?
They apparently followed Jerry Krause in mocking the sporting gods. Feel badly for 49ers fans and football fans generally, but these are the consequences.
 

SydneySox

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Out of interest, are you fans of the 49ers excited or intrigued or curious about Jarryd Hayne?

He is a pretty phenomenal League player. He gave up 1.5 million a year - ridiculous money in footy here - to follow a dream and try for the NFL.

He's an amazing athlete but I'm not sure how he will fit with your sport.

Interested to see if he sticks.
 

Stitch01

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The over under here still being 8.5 is incredible.  This team has 4-12 tire fire written all over it.  Massive loss of defensive talent and leadership, quarterback at a crossroads whose progress has slowed, absolute clown car holding leadership positions, tough schedule.  I think this team is going to be a complete debacle.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Colin Kaepernick:  Still an idiot
 
 
 
Colin Kaepernick, who has nearly 1.3 million followers on Instagram and 755,000 Twitter followers, deleted and then apologized Tuesday for a social media post that trivialized the deadly floods in the Houston area, much of Texas and Oklahoma.
 
I wonder if he'll play in SF's preseason opener.  In Houston
 

JCizzle

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This is unreal, losing three very above average players (one all pro) to retirement in their primes. They're so screwed next year.
 

LondonSox

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Davis sounded like he'll be back to me. Taking a year or two after a bad concussion. We'll see but if he does even worse for the niners.

How bad will the drop off be? Wow. I don't think we've seen just such a shocking loss of talent in an offseason out of the blue.
 

Super Nomario

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LondonSox said:
Davis sounded like he'll be back to me. Taking a year or two after a bad concussion. We'll see but if he does even worse for the niners.

How bad will the drop off be? Wow. I don't think we've seen just such a shocking loss of talent in an offseason out of the blue.
Early returns on their past few drafts have been terrible, too.
 
2012: Only Joe Looney remains
2013: First-rounder Eric Reid has been solid, but early-round edge rushers Tank Carradine and Corey Lemonier have just four career sacks between them, and pass-catchers Vance McDonald and Quinton Patton have less than 250 receiving yards combined. Marcus Lattimore retired having not played a snap.
2014: Chris Borland was great but is already retired. Jimmie Ward ended the year on IR. Brandon Thomas redshirted with injury. Aaron Lynch, Marcus Martin, and Carlos Hyde contributed, so this draft could look pretty good in a couple years.
 

DanoooME

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Niners traded P Andy Lee to Cleveland for a 7th round pick.  Not bad considering they were likely going to cut him.
 

soxhop411

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“@Kyle_McLorgBASG: Source: midway thru 2014, York walked into meeting Harbaugh was holding w/ players, & Harbaugh told Jed that the meeting was for ”men only“”
 

ivanvamp

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Stitch01 said:
The over under here still being 8.5 is incredible.  This team has 4-12 tire fire written all over it.  Massive loss of defensive talent and leadership, quarterback at a crossroads whose progress has slowed, absolute clown car holding leadership positions, tough schedule.  I think this team is going to be a complete debacle.
 
Just a few years ago this team looked like it was set for a very big run for many, many years.
 
Puts the Patriots' success in perspective.
 

Super Nomario

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ivanvamp said:
 
Just a few years ago this team looked like it was set for a very big run for many, many years.
 
Puts the Patriots' success in perspective.
It's also a nice reminder of what Kraft brings to the party. It seems like it would be easy to just to stay out of Belichick's way and not screw anything up, but I'm convinced at least half the league's owners would have killed the golden goose at some point in the last 15 years.
 

dcmissle

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Probably; Reinsdorf cannot help himself with the Bulls and White Sox.
 
What has happened to the 49ers this offseason, though, goes well beyond that.  The retirements alone would have been crippling.  Perfect storm of suck that is beyond comprehension almost.
 

JCizzle

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It would be one thing if they had hired an offensive mind because I think they weren't getting nearly enough out of the offense over the last few years. It's possible an uptick there might have mostly offset the defensive losses. However, I have no confidence that Jim Tomsula is the the guy to accomplish that. He doesn't strike me as the kind of coach that's going to innovate to steal a few games, it will all be rah rah ground and pound vanilla per the edict from Baalke. For an owner that's pretty forward thinking on metrics, it's a bizarre hire to me... especially considering the offensive legacy in SF.
 

Tony C

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I will say that the quote Harbaugh makes me a lot more sympathetic to Baalke and, by extension, Tomsula. Not that I ever liked Harbaugh, who is 100% douchebag, but maybe I'll root a bit for the Niners this year hoping they can make him look bad. Half the club retiring doesn't make that seem too likely, but what the hell....
 

bakahump

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I hope these guys talked and then called Vegas putting huge money on the Under before announcing.
 

J.McG

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nattysez said:
John Clayton started another round of "Kap's going to be traded sooner rather than later" speculation today.  FWIW, given the offensive line and backfield the Niners appear to be preparing to roll with this year, trading Kap while he still has some value is not the worst idea I've heard.
Surprised they didn't list Buffalo as a potential Kaepernick trade partner, considering Greg Roman is the new OC there and they're as QB-needy as most of those other teams. With Kap--assuming he performs anywhere near the level he was playing back in 2012-13--plus the offensive weapons already on the roster, and a top-5 defense returning largely intact, the Bills would become a legit threat in the AFC East - they'd be a lot more fun to watch, at least.

I'm guessing Baalke would demand a 2016 1st rounder and a semi-competent interim QB w/ a manageable contract (Cassel would qualify), at minimum, plus a mid-round pick or 2 thrown in as well. If I'm a Bills fan that hasn't sniffed the playoffs in 15+ years, I make that trade in a second.

It probably goes over like a lead balloon in San Fran, at least initially, but how much worse can it really get at this point? Baalke at least acquires some much needed draft capital for a roster bled dry of talent. And most draft analysts are forecasting a far better & deeper crop of QBs will be available in 2016 than the mediocre at best classes of the past 2-3 years. So it's not as if a long-term Kap replacement is still years away, particularly for a team likely picking in the top 5-10 next year.
 

ipol

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soxhop411 said:
“@Kyle_McLorgBASG: Source: midway thru 2014, York walked into meeting Harbaugh was holding w/ players, & Harbaugh told Jed that the meeting was for ”men only“”
I haven't looked. Is there a "The Harbaughs are complete douche bags" thread? I've been hiring and firing men in the construction industry for 25 years. Had any of my employees ever uttered something akin to that to me ambulances and police cars would have been needed.
 

dynomite

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Surprised they didn't list Buffalo as a potential Kaepernick trade partner, considering Greg Roman is the new OC there and they're as QB-needy as most of those other teams. With Kap--assuming he performs anywhere near the level he was playing back in 2012-13--plus the offensive weapons already on the roster, and a top-5 defense returning largely intact, the Bills would become a legit threat in the AFC East - they'd be a lot more fun to watch, at least.

I'm guessing Baalke would demand a 2016 1st rounder and a semi-competent interim QB w/ a manageable contract (Cassel would qualify), at minimum, plus a mid-round pick or 2 thrown in as well. If I'm a Bills fan that hasn't sniffed the playoffs in 15+ years, I make that trade in a second.

It probably goes over like a lead balloon in San Fran, at least initially, but how much worse can it really get at this point? Baalke at least acquires some much needed draft capital for a roster bled dry of talent. And most draft analysts are forecasting a far better & deeper crop of QBs will be available in 2016 than the mediocre at best classes of the past 2-3 years. So it's not as if a long-term Kap replacement is still years away, particularly for a team likely picking in the top 5-10 next year.
This actually makes a terrifying amount of sense.

I say terrifying as a Patriots fan because, well, almost entirely because of this game: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012121613/2012/REG15/49ers@patriots#menu=gameinfo%7CcontentId%3A0ap2000000113443&tab=recap

Kaep threw for 4 TDs and was generally unsackable (1 sack that night). Shudder.
 

coremiller

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nattysez said:
John Clayton started another round of "Kap's going to be traded sooner rather than later" speculation today.  FWIW, given the offensive line and backfield the Niners appear to be preparing to roll with this year, trading Kap while he still has some value is not the worst idea I've heard. 
 
There's not even a source here.  This is just idle speculation.  The Niners will never trade Kap while he has value, because if he has value he's more valuable to them than anyone they could replace him with in a trade, and he has a reasonable contract with limited guarantees.  The only way they would get rid of him is if he falls off a cliff, but then they won't get anything good back for him.
 

gaelgirl

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ipol said:
I haven't looked. Is there a "The Harbaughs are complete douche bags" thread? I've been hiring and firing men in the construction industry for 25 years. Had any of my employees ever uttered something akin to that to me ambulances and police cars would have been needed.
Am I the only one who finds this hilarious? (Harbaugh throwing him out, not your comment.) Jed York is a piece of excrement, much like his father was a piece of excrement. If you are as shitty a boss as Jed York is, you'd probably deserve someone uttering something like this. I doubt you are. York is next-level awful.
 
Further, we don't necessarily know the context of the comment. What was the meeting about? What was York intending to contribute to the meeting? If it was about football, how did players feel about having the owner sitting in on their football meetings? Do players want to get performance comments from the dweeby owner who's never played or coached a down of professional football in his entire life? Harbaugh was a dick about it, but he made that dweeb a shit-ton of money. You're gonna deal with egos in professional sports. Don't toss your toys when your assholery is pointed out in equally assholery fashion. 
 
The Niners are going to be a bad team for a long time. It was the case under Dr. York and it turns out his son is of the same ilk. Horrifying. 
 

bakahump

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I disagree GG.
 
Guy might be entitled unqualified jerk.  But at the end of the day he IS the Boss.  He owns the Team (or close enough).
 
Its bad form for ANY employee to disrespect their superior. They can disagree. They can discuss.  But outright disrespect is unacceptable.  If you feel you cant work in those conditions you leave.  But you dont demean anyone.
 
Would it be ok for Kaep or Gore to tell JH that an Offensive meeting "is for the Talent only"?
 
If York wants to sit in.  He can sit in.  If He wants to comment he can comment. He can hijack the meeting and regale them with stories of bong hits on yacths.  At some point in private JH could and should tell him that it was interfering with the mission.  If York says "so what" or "nah" or "Too bad" thats on him and his multi billion dollar investment.  JH can then choose to leave and go to some University in the midwest at the next opportunity.
 
If my Senior VP came down and wanted to sit in on a Technology team meeting that would be more then within their rights.  If they wanted to hijack it and talk about 17th century Crystal and its methods of production...they could do that to.  
 
I realize York might be a Douche.  You and thousands of others with a vested interest in the 49ers might not like him.  But he is the boss.
 
BB seems like he can be an Abrasive jerk.  But I can not in a million years imagine him telling Kraft off like that.  What I can see is him sitting in front of a desk with just the two of them and saying "Bob, I cant do my job and get these players prepared if you come down and talk about bird watching. SO can you either stop coming to the meetings or if you do please try to add something to the process of winning the Buffalo game this week?"
 

Caspir

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gaelgirl said:
 Harbaugh was a dick about it, but he made that dweeb a shit-ton of money
 
Uhh, the 49ers somehow managed to become profitable long before the douchebag in khakis came along. I think you might mean the exact opposite. The 9ers made that dweeb (Harbaugh) a shit-ton of money. And regardless of who made who rich, basic decorum dictates that whether he is a dick or not, the boss gets respect around the workplace. It's shocking that Harbaugh can't hang onto a job for more than a few years before everyone decides he's a piece of shit and not worth the trouble. 
 

coremiller

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Caspir said:
 
Uhh, the 49ers somehow managed to become profitable long before the douchebag in khakis came along. I think you might mean the exact opposite. The 9ers made that dweeb (Harbaugh) a shit-ton of money. And regardless of who made who rich, basic decorum dictates that whether he is a dick or not, the boss gets respect around the workplace. It's shocking that Harbaugh can't hang onto a job for more than a few years before everyone decides he's a piece of shit and not worth the trouble. 
 
Uhh, no.  Harbaugh made York a lot of money because having a team coming off consecutive championship game appearances for the opening of Levi's Stadium was a big factor in selling all those luxury boxes and club seats and personal seat licenses.  The Niners were a much hotter corporate ticket in 2014 than 2010, and that's largely because of Harbaugh.  Harbaugh was also going to make a lot of money regardless of what the 49ers did, he had plenty of offers to go other places.  And the Harbaugh "can't hold onto a job" thing isn't really true  -- he didn't get kicked out at San Diego or Stanford, he just moved on to a bigger opportunity.  The 49ers are the first coaching job he's left because the team wanted him gone, rather than on his own accord.  
 
I would take this whole story with a grain of salt anyway.  Not that it didn't happen at all, but we are missing a lot of context.  And the Yorks have pretty clearly been engaged in an ongoing whispering smear campaign in the media for well over a year, which Harbaugh has refused to engage in.
 

Tony C

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Caspir said:
 
Uhh, the 49ers somehow managed to become profitable long before the douchebag in khakis came along. I think you might mean the exact opposite. The 9ers made that dweeb (Harbaugh) a shit-ton of money. And regardless of who made who rich, basic decorum dictates that whether he is a dick or not, the boss gets respect around the workplace. It's shocking that Harbaugh can't hang onto a job for more than a few years before everyone decides he's a piece of shit and not worth the trouble. 
 
Fully agree. My only caveat is that it isn't just the boss who deserves that respect. If he had made that sort of demeaning (and sort of homophobic sounding) comment to Harbaugh, he'd be just as much a douche as Harbaugh is. Beyond that, I find it hard to believe that anyone could defend Harbaugh. The stories of his ass-holedom are legion. The 9ers made him tons of money and maybe he helped make them money, too -- I'm not sure of the relevance either way. Making money or being a boss is irrelevant, and it's weird to me they're invoked as criteria that allow one to be a douche or not.
 

Super Nomario

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I'm not sure why this is an either/or. Harbaugh seems like a difficult dude to get along with and at times a hotheaded jerk. At the same time, ownership and the front office have shown startling levels of incompetence over the past year and a half and don't exactly seem like easy people to work with, either. My impression with the Harbaugh / York story is that it was disrespectful and inappropriate and mostly accurate.
 

Tangled Up In Red

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Harbaugh being an asshole does not negate Jed York being a shitty, unqualified and poor performing owner. We shouldn't quibble over one incident.
 

nattysez

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York on the change from Harbaugh to Tomsula:
 
“Culture is huge. That’s the difference between a championship-caliber team and a championship team,” York says. “You look at the Golden State Warriors. They were the dumbest team in the NBA for letting Mark Jackson go, who won the most games in the franchise’s history. How could you be so dumb? They bring in Steve Kerr, who has been around the game for a long period of time but has never coached before. Kerr changes the culture, comes in with a different perspective, and look what happens.”
 
 
I can't decide if Jed is more delusional than he is dumb or vice-versa.  
 
Edit:
 
Kawakami went in on Jed today after he read this quote.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Why would they do their drills on their natural grass playing field? That seems odd to me, but I'm obviously not an NFL coach. Even if you don't want to convert to Field Turf (which seems to be pretty ubiquitous in the league at this point), why beat the shit out of it?
 

Al Zarilla

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nattysez said:
In other news, the field at Levi's is apparently still a disaster.  The totality of the incompetence is almost overwhelming.

 
Is that significant damage? Football players do wear cleats. Some grasses do put down roots as much as three feet though, so maybe it is. The author James Brady sounds like he's being a comic alarmist in that article (not that I think the 49ers are on a good roll at all). 
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Well, at least they have 7 or 11 years to figure out grass for the World Cup. Probably no dice for 2016 Copa America though.
 

nattysez

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kenneycb said:
They'll have five uninterrupted weeks to prepare for that though.
 
Understood, but keep in mind that they have had an entire off-season of perfect weather to get the field ready and it's garbage.   On the bright side, you know the NFL is going to come in their and crack skulls to be sure the field is pristine for the SB.