So, after a disaster of an off-season, are there any reasons to be optimistic about this team?
- They had some big names retire/leave/get cut, but a lot of those guys didn't make contributions as large as their names last year. Borland started only 8 games; Willis only 6, Anthony Davis 7, Aldon Smith 6. Justin Smith is the biggest loss here, having started every game.
- In a similar vein, they had absolutely atrocious injury luck, especially on defense, that is unlikely to repeat. SF was 28th in FootballOutsider's Adjusted Games Lost, and 31st on defense. By the end of the season, they were running out 3rd stringers at several positions because so many guys were hurt. Injuries tend to regress toward the mean, and they should be healthier this year.
- The defense managed to still be very good despite the injuries, finishing 5th in DVOA. There are some indicators suggesting the defense may regress (they had a very high takeaway rate last year, and defensive performance tends to less stable year-to-year), but that regression may be offset by better health. There are still a bunch of really good players on this defense. Antoine Bethea/Eric Reid was one of the league's best safety tandems last year. Even without Justin Smith and Ray MacDonald, the return to health of Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams, the signing of Darnell Dockett, and the development of Quinton Dial and Tank Carradine gives them a solid DL rotation. If Navarro Bowman can make a complete return from his horrific knee injury, that offsets the loss of Willis/Borland -- Bowman was the league's best MLB before getting hurt. Without Aldon Smith they lack a dominant edge rusher, but Ahmad Brooks and Michael Wilhoite + a healthy Bowman are a good LB core, and Aaron Lynch showed pass rush flashes in limited time last year.
- While saying goodbye to Frank Gore was tough, the history of RBs at age 32 isn't good, and Carlos Hyde has looked impressive in limited touches. They'll miss Gore's personality and leadership, but probably not his production. Switching to a zone rather than power scheme also compliments Hyde's strengths.
- There should be a whole lot less drama this season. There's no question the coach/front office infighting negatively impacted the team last year, and there should be a lot less of that nonsense this year. The bigger troublemakers (Aldon Smith, Macdonald) are gone, and so there should be fewer distractions on that front as well. How big a difference this stuff makes, I don't know, but it can only be positive.
- Besides the drama, some of the stories about Harbaugh wearing out his tenure with the players and burning them out may have actually been true. Meanwhile, Tomsula seems really well liked and respected by just about everyone in the locker room. The team will at least play hard for him.
- They solved one of their biggest weaknesses on offense by signing Torrey Smith, giving them the true deep threat they haven't had since Randy Moss's one-year tenure (and he was used mostly as a decoy). That should limit teams from sitting on the shorter route combos that became such a problem last season. Adding Reggie Bush also gives them a backfield receiving dimension they didn't have in the past.
The two big personnel weaknesses right now are at CB and OL. They don't have much depth at CB, having seen both of last year's starters, Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver, leave in free agency. Tramaine Brock and Shareece Wright are the likely starters, with 2014 1st round pick Jimmie Ward as the nickel back, and a bunch of rookies/street free agents behind them. They will be dependent on their excellent safeties and linebackers to cover up weaknesses in outside coverage.
Just three years ago, SF had the league's best offensive line. Not anymore. From the group that went to the Super Bowl, only Joe Staley and Alex Boone are left. Staley is still a premier LT, while Boone has shifted from RG to LG to replace Mike Iupati, who left in free agency. Joe Looney is the now the center, while Marcus Martin, who as a rookie played center last year after the first two centers on the depth chart got hurt, has shifted from C to RG with Boone's switch. With Anthony Davis' retirement/sabbatical, the RT is now Erik Pears, a cheap FA signed from Buffalo, where he was not very good. The left side of the line is a strength, but the right side of the line is a real weakness. With the change in coordinators, the team has shifted from a power-based blocking scheme to a zone-based scheme (although under Harbaugh they used some of both, most notably zone options in 2012, power was their bread and butter).
Then there's Kaepernick. Nobody really knows what to expect from him this year. Will he be the guy who lit up the league in 2012? The guy who, while less explosive, was an above-average starter in 2013? Or will he be as bad as he was last year? There might not be a QB who has a wider range of potential non-injury performance than Kaepernick -- I could see him making a big leap forward to become a consistent top 10 QB, I could see him getting found out even more and being no better than replacement level, and I could see everything in between.
So there's some potential here: if the defense can remain an above-average unit, if the OL can gel, and if with a more diverse set of weapons Kaepernick can improve on last year's dismal performance, this could still be a pretty good team. The days of SF being a top championship contender are over, but I also don't buy a lot of the doom-and-gloom 4-12ish predictions I've seen.