My thinking was getting back a cost controlled high-stuff relief arm in a separate deal, but I generally agree that replacing Kenley via an expensive free agent isn't a great path.
The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
What’s the point? Pretty sure each of us has been wrong about several players.
That you pulled all that up in seven minutes is kind of creepy, dude.
That you pulled all that up in seven minutes is kind of creepy, dude.
Duran's career wRC+ against lefties is 41. & Turner is almost certainly declining his player option.
But the fact that there are other things we could do in '24 makes me say maybe to trading Verdugo this off season, but almost certainly not to doing it at this deadline barring someone way overpaying.
Chawson's bag is going condescendingly big on fringe projecty players. All you have to do is search him on Cordero, or Hernandez or whomever and there's a string of stuff like that.
But for now, let's hear some more about this Verdugo for Gallo Trade.
It sounds fascinating.
For which we perhaps ought to consider. . .oh. . .actual skill at evaluating the future value of players?
Seriously, I don't know anything about Chawson personally, not so as to form an opinion about the man or his character as a human being. (I'm assuming he's a man.) Could be an absolute saint for all I know.
But I am curious to hear about the basis for trading Verdugo for Gallo. I mean, looking ahead. Considering the future. Correctly weighing past performance, and neither over nor undervaluing it. Perhaps there's a good basis for this particular argument.
I'll take any further answers/responses off the air.
To be fair he's suggesting we flip Duvall for Gallo & trade Verdugo in a separate deal.
Refsnyder being the best corner outfielder at hitting lefties the last two years is an interesting data point.
It definitely means you can get extra value from a guy who crushes righties, but can't hit lefties.
The Rays have a history of getting the most out of guys by only playing them in situations where they can succeed.
The Sox getting and extending Refsnyder is kind of out of that playbook.
Nothing new here, just that I didn't realize he was that good
It definitely means you can get extra value from a guy who crushes righties, but can't hit lefties.
The Rays have a history of getting the most out of guys by only playing them in situations where they can succeed.
The Sox getting and extending Refsnyder is kind of out of that playbook.
Nothing new here, just that I didn't realize he was that good
Are you okay, man?
Anyway, this latest provocation would have been stronger had you read the posts you’re commenting on.
In the first post of this thread, I made up "a realistic but optimistic scenario" that would lead to us being probable buyers. We're one game off my fictional pace, mostly because we scuffled against CWS.
I think we're probably buying — or at least adopting a fairly aggressive buy/sell posture.
To me, it all hinges on Paxton. If a contender with a pitching injury (say the Dodgers) is willing to go all in to get him, you absolutely move him and then sell in general.
If you don't like the offers for Paxton, you try to extend him and buy a little / sell a little.
I'd do this even if the team goes on a winning streak before the trade deadline. On the other hand, a losing streak would make me more aggressive about moving Paxton.
If you don't like the offers for Paxton, you try to extend him and buy a little / sell a little.
I'd do this even if the team goes on a winning streak before the trade deadline. On the other hand, a losing streak would make me more aggressive about moving Paxton.
If they like Paxton enough that they want to extend him and think they have a good chance to then trading him doesn't make much sense. If they have no interest in bringing him back beyond this year then they should probably move him.
It makes sense if the offer is good enough. Starting pitching is the hardest thing to get for a contender. Paxton should get some generous offers. Bloom will weigh those against his value to the team and hopefully pull the correct trigger.
I agree that if they don't plan on bringing him back (or don't think he will sign) they should move him for the best offer.
Which raises the question touched on in other places but perhaps deserves its own discussion: what would a Paxton extension look like? I’d be scared to death of anything beyond two years. Would Bloom even consider trying to extend him during this season? If not, that means they’d be wanting to negotiate with him as a FA. If that’s the plan, why not trade him now AND try to reach an agreement with him as a FA?
Definitely anti-Paxton extension. Take whatever value he provides this season…. Either leading the team to the playoffs or a good return in 2 weeks via trade. I’m optimistic about the team and hope they stick to it…. They played one of the hardest schedules, dealt with tons of injuries and are right in it. They have Joely back… Schreiber after the break.
Story and Sale are expected back in 2-3 weeks. They’ve got one of the easiest schedules the second half.
Keep him and offer a QO.
Story and Sale are expected back in 2-3 weeks. They’ve got one of the easiest schedules the second half.
Keep him and offer a QO.
I think this is too simplistic. There's nothing wrong with a deal for Paxton as long as the team has the right protections. Would he be willing to do a deal that is say... 3 for 45 with a 10 mil team buyout after year two if he hasn't pitched more than 40 games over two years, but 1 mil bonus every 3 starts per year he makes... so if he hits 30 starts, he adds 10M a year to the deal, taking it to 3/75. Sox max liability if it goes to hell in year one is like 40 mil across two years then, but if he comes out and is an ace for the next 3 years he makes 25/yr.
Obviously not perfect, but if he likes it here, there's nothing wrong with getting creative and trying to do what is best for him and the team. But given his trade value, I'd do it before the deadline. because he should be worth enough to a contender to need to not just let walk for a QO IMO.
Sure. I just imaginesome other team will offer him a ridiculous contract if he finishes the year strong and healthy
If he finishes the year worry-free, I think 25 mil for 3 years is the floor. Not options that could bump it to that, just 3x25, full stop. Maybe you could get one of those Lackey deals where if he misses a year, you get another year on the back end. But he's getting paid. And while nobody needs to hold a bake sale for him, he hasn't really gotten paid yet, so I'd expect him and Mr. Boras to set the bar quite high.
The problem with trading Paxton - who do you replace him with next year?
The Sox have nothing in the high minors that comes close, the current big club doesn’t have a plug in and it’s not going to be easy to find a trade that brings back Paxton’s ability.
I have to assume the Sox know way more about Paxton’s health. If they think he can last 2 years, they should make a market offer to retain. Guys like Big Maple don’t grow on trees.
The Sox have nothing in the high minors that comes close, the current big club doesn’t have a plug in and it’s not going to be easy to find a trade that brings back Paxton’s ability.
I have to assume the Sox know way more about Paxton’s health. If they think he can last 2 years, they should make a market offer to retain. Guys like Big Maple don’t grow on trees.
That would be fantastic but every team in baseball should submit a bid in that auction.
Does anyone have a guess at the costs for Yamamoto? $25m year minimum? 6-8 years?
Pitchers are such injury risks. I hope the spend on Yamamoto and Paxton.
If, as stated upthread, it is going to take $25 million per year minimum to sign Paxton, I am on the trade him or QO him team.
We can spend that kind of money on a better injury risk in the off season and get good prospects or draft picks for him right now.
So there are 3 paths on Paxton:
Path A - Re-sign now or sometime before the deadline.
Pro: Get him for rest of season & the length of the contract.
Con: Injury risk. Cost? No trade compensation.
Path B - Let him play out this season, tag him, & either re-sign or let him go.
Pro: Get him for the rest of the season, not locked into a long term deal, draft compensation at end of 2nd round of he signs somewhere else.
Con: Don't have him locked in for next year & no trade compensation.
Path C - Trade him before the deadline.
Pro: Hopefully getting a haul in the trade that will improve their chances in future seasons when they have a better team. Could potentially re-sign after the season.
Con: Kinda screwed for this season with the lack of healthy good starters.
Without knowing:
1) How much it would take to re-sign Paxton now.
2) How much it would take to sign Paxton in the off season.
3) What the best trade offer is/will be.
4) Where the Red Sox will be in the standings in 3 weeks & where their guys will be in terms of health.
It's kind of an impossible equation to solve for. Basically if they're out of it, they should always trade Paxton. If they are where they are now, they probably shouldn't. & if the price is appealing at the point you've decided not to trade him, you extend him.
Path A - Re-sign now or sometime before the deadline.
Pro: Get him for rest of season & the length of the contract.
Con: Injury risk. Cost? No trade compensation.
Path B - Let him play out this season, tag him, & either re-sign or let him go.
Pro: Get him for the rest of the season, not locked into a long term deal, draft compensation at end of 2nd round of he signs somewhere else.
Con: Don't have him locked in for next year & no trade compensation.
Path C - Trade him before the deadline.
Pro: Hopefully getting a haul in the trade that will improve their chances in future seasons when they have a better team. Could potentially re-sign after the season.
Con: Kinda screwed for this season with the lack of healthy good starters.
Without knowing:
1) How much it would take to re-sign Paxton now.
2) How much it would take to sign Paxton in the off season.
3) What the best trade offer is/will be.
4) Where the Red Sox will be in the standings in 3 weeks & where their guys will be in terms of health.
It's kind of an impossible equation to solve for. Basically if they're out of it, they should always trade Paxton. If they are where they are now, they probably shouldn't. & if the price is appealing at the point you've decided not to trade him, you extend him.
This is logical, if we pretend that this season isn't happening. Is there a consensus here that making the playoffs (considerably more difficult without Paxton) has *some* value?
In general, yeah... no to big deals to pitchers. Before Chris Sale became a year-in, year-out injury risk, he'd pitched 190 innings or more in five out of six years. Now he's thrown 100 in the last three. Johan Santana was a workhorse, and when he hit 30, his arm fell off. Nobody needs me to mention David Price. The common theme here is that at 30, all bets are off, and frankly, bets are off before then, too. There's countless other examples. It's why I hate the idea of going after Ohtani. Maybe his body holds up! If it doesn't, you are left holding an extremely heavy bag.
I actually prefer the 3 or 4 year deal to the mid-career Lackey, Eovaldi or Paxton than the 5 or 6 year deal to the pitcher who has been reliable for the last five or six years because you just never know. Better to tie the money up in something short-term than hamstring your team with a contract like Sale's.
I think if you can sign Paxton at a decent AAV for a shortish 3-4 year deal, the 15 or 16 Eovaldi got, for example, you do it... but I have a foreboding that, (1) he goes down again and (2) given the crazy contracts perpetual risks like Degrom have gotten, Paxton might get a hefty offer. I like watching him pitch, but he's pitched 150 or more innings exactly twice. If it's 25m over four years, forget about it.
He seems comfortable here, likes the medical staff, there might be some good will.
I actually prefer the 3 or 4 year deal to the mid-career Lackey, Eovaldi or Paxton than the 5 or 6 year deal to the pitcher who has been reliable for the last five or six years because you just never know. Better to tie the money up in something short-term than hamstring your team with a contract like Sale's.
I think if you can sign Paxton at a decent AAV for a shortish 3-4 year deal, the 15 or 16 Eovaldi got, for example, you do it... but I have a foreboding that, (1) he goes down again and (2) given the crazy contracts perpetual risks like Degrom have gotten, Paxton might get a hefty offer. I like watching him pitch, but he's pitched 150 or more innings exactly twice. If it's 25m over four years, forget about it.
He seems comfortable here, likes the medical staff, there might be some good will.
Agreed. This team is in the hunt for a playoff spot. They should explore their options - maybe someone makes an offer that blows them away - but if they want to make the playoffs, they keep him.
Depending on your preferences, there are a decent number of quality arms that can be added in the offseason and the sox will have money to spend. I agree with those who believe trading Paxton at the deadline would be a little silly at this point and offering him the QO would allow us to compete this year and still recoup value in draft pick compensation. To me banking on a almost 35 year old pitcher to continue his recent success with less than 80 total innings pitched over the last 4 seasons seems a little foolish. Because of his age, track record, and being a rental, I am not sure teams would be offering a haul at the deadline enticing enough for us to waive the white flag and cover the draft pick compensation.
Below is a list of available free agents after the season. Sure, most will require longer commitments than Paxton, but there are plenty of decent options to add to Bello, Whitlock, Sale, Houck/Crawford. There is also Yamamoto as well as the Ohtani pipe dream.
| FA | Age | ERA+ | FIP | WHIP |
| Urias | 26 | 92 | 4.90 | 1.18 |
| Mahle | 28 | 139 | 4.22 | 1.05 |
| Giolito | 29 | 126 | 4.21 | 1.14 |
| E. Rodriguez (opt-out) | 30 | 161 | 3.34 | 1.00 |
| Snell | 30 | 143 | 3.61 | 1.22 |
| Montgomery | 30 | 132 | 3.52 | 1.22 |
| Nola | 30 | 97 | 4.34 | 1.11 |
| Stroman (opt-out) | 32 | 149 | 3.41 | 1.11 |
| S. Gray | 33 | 150 | 2.85 | 1.27 |
Good list of options. But, as you state, it all depends on where the Sox are in two weeks.
Best case, they're still somewhat in tweener territory but they have a decent shot at the playoffs, and how far they can go in the playoffs depends on how much they can over-acheive in October.
If they're still in tweener territory, Path C isn't an option. Even though it might be in the Sox's long-term interests and run contrary to what the Sox FO's philosophy is, you just can't trade off key pieces. It's unseemly.
Path A doesn't make sense for Paxton unless he's worried about turning into a pumpkin. It doesn't make sense for the Sox health-wise. Put another way, if Paxton comes knocking for a contract extension now... don't answer the door.
Got to go with Path B.
If the Sox fall apart in July, Paxton is the first one on the auction block.
Gray and Snell, and pray like hell.
There are some very good pitchers with age issues in that list... Do you want to give Gray a three year deal with player options? How about a six year deal to Snell?
No matter what, pitching is going to cost more money and years than you'd like, but we have to do it...
A rotation of Snell, Gray, Sale, Bello and Houck/Whitlock with all our inexpensive depth immediately makes us contenders.
But with a very high risk, expensive rotation that could turn into a pumpkin at any moment due to injury.
I don't envy Bloome having to decide what to do with the rotation right now, but he definitely has made some good moves lately.
That’s the thing about this year though, right? Have we ever seen a team with such variance in potential outcomes? I think someone else said it, so it’s not original to me, but It’s could easily see this team finishing below .500 or making a deep 2021 style run behind a rotation of Paxton, Bello, and a late arriving Sale.
My post assumed a poor July and a willingness to raise a white flag. I don’t think that would actually happen though even with d July went poorly.
I guess another benefit of this team making a run to end the season or even just being in contention until late, would be a smaller chance of Bloom getting canned. The success of the farm this year should make him untouchable.
And/or an ace acquired at the trade deadline. I’m reluctant to depend on Sale for a post-season run. The offense, especially if Story returns healthy, is more than adequate right now.
I think the Red Sox should trade for a starting pitcher because they're 2 games out of the playoffs and trending upwards given the reinforcements on the horizon; a reliable starter would keep us competitive in more games and would strengthen the bullpen by the addition of one of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford (once healthy) at the end of games, where their stuff would likely play up. (As young, cheap, projectable arms with team control they might also be attractive to a team that's not committed to a multiyear teardown, but that's probably a discussion for the offseason.)
I also think the Red Sox should target pitchers with multiple years of control, since the window is really opening starting next year and the 2023 vintage is still a flawed team even if all the injured pieces come back healthy.
Was taking a look at good starters under contract past this year on noncontending teams and it's pretty dire. Detmers, Steele, Keller aren't going anywhere; Bieber and Cease have red flags in their peripherals that might make us think twice about the prospect cost they'd warrant.
But what about Marcus Stroman? One of the bright spots in a very depressing Cubs season, with a sub-3 ERA and sub-3.5 FIP. Has a player option for next year at $21 million ($23 million if he hits 160 innings, which he's on pace for). Stroman on short money—1 year, $23 million, for his age 33 season, coming off a good year, in a division where he's had consistent success—is at least as appealing an option for 2024 as giving multiple years and an open-market salary to e.g. Giolito.
I think Stroman would put us over the cap for this year but we could find cost savings elsewhere — I think it's likely that this trade deadline, like last year's, will see the Red Sox make a couple of moves to improve the team for the stretch run while also selling off expendable assets for resources which replenish the pipeline. Trading Jansen would save money and/or return prospects and I view him as expendable (if Whitlock is healthy I'd rather have him in the back end of the bullpen than a declining Jansen full stop).
The caveat of course is that Stroman might choose to opt out if he thinks this offseason represents his best chance to get his last big payday. (He's certainly going to opt out if the Cubs don't trade him, and he's definitely on the move this deadline.) So maybe he's essentially a free agent in which case he's much less appealing as the subject of a bidding war.
I also think the Red Sox should target pitchers with multiple years of control, since the window is really opening starting next year and the 2023 vintage is still a flawed team even if all the injured pieces come back healthy.
Was taking a look at good starters under contract past this year on noncontending teams and it's pretty dire. Detmers, Steele, Keller aren't going anywhere; Bieber and Cease have red flags in their peripherals that might make us think twice about the prospect cost they'd warrant.
But what about Marcus Stroman? One of the bright spots in a very depressing Cubs season, with a sub-3 ERA and sub-3.5 FIP. Has a player option for next year at $21 million ($23 million if he hits 160 innings, which he's on pace for). Stroman on short money—1 year, $23 million, for his age 33 season, coming off a good year, in a division where he's had consistent success—is at least as appealing an option for 2024 as giving multiple years and an open-market salary to e.g. Giolito.
I think Stroman would put us over the cap for this year but we could find cost savings elsewhere — I think it's likely that this trade deadline, like last year's, will see the Red Sox make a couple of moves to improve the team for the stretch run while also selling off expendable assets for resources which replenish the pipeline. Trading Jansen would save money and/or return prospects and I view him as expendable (if Whitlock is healthy I'd rather have him in the back end of the bullpen than a declining Jansen full stop).
The caveat of course is that Stroman might choose to opt out if he thinks this offseason represents his best chance to get his last big payday. (He's certainly going to opt out if the Cubs don't trade him, and he's definitely on the move this deadline.) So maybe he's essentially a free agent in which case he's much less appealing as the subject of a bidding war.
Seems very much like last year in a sense. On July 10, the Sox were 5 games over .500., two days ahead of the ASB. At the time Sale, Wacha, Whitlock, Eovaldi, Hill, Arroyo, and Hernandez were on the IL. Dalbec was OPSing .621, and JBJ was jealous of it.
If the team stayed healthy and/or got an effective rotation and support back relatively quickly, or saw an uptick in performance, or had Paxton progress quickly. . .but instead the hits kept coming. By July 30 they were two games under .500, and by Aug. 31, 5 games under .500.
Sale, Wacha, Whitlock, Eovaldi, Hill, Arroyo, and Hernandez
07/12/22 Boston Red Sox activated LHP Chris Sale.
07/13/22 Boston Red Sox placed RHP Matt Barnes on the 60-day injured list.
07/14/22 Boston Red Sox placed RHP Josh Winckowski on the 10-day injured list.
07/15/22 Boston Red Sox activated RHP Nathan Eovaldi.
07/15/22 Boston Red Sox activated RHP Garrett Whitlock.
07/15/22 Boston Red Sox placed LHP Matt Strahm on the 15-day injured list retroactive to July 13, 2022. Left wrist contusion.
07/16/22 Boston Red Sox placed 2B Trevor Story on the 10-day injured list retroactive to July 13, 2022. Right hand contusion.
07/19/22 Boston Red Sox transferred LHP Chris Sale from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.
07/23/22 Boston Red Sox placed CF Enrique Hernandez on the 60-day injured list. Right hip flexor strain.
07/23/22 Boston Red Sox placed 3B Rafael Devers on the 10-day injured list. Right hamstring inflammation.
07/26/22 Boston Red Sox activated RHP Josh Winckowski from the 10-day injured list.
07/30/22 Boston Red Sox activated 3B Christian Arroyo from the 10-day injured list.
08/01/22 Boston Red Sox traded LHP Jake Diekman to Chicago White Sox for C Reese McGuire.
08/01/22 Boston Red Sox traded C Christian Vazquez to Houston Astros for 2B Enmanuel Valdez and OF Wilyer Abreu.
08/01/22 Cincinnati Reds traded CF Tommy Pham to Boston Red Sox for Player To Be Named Later.
08/01/22 Boston Red Sox activated LHP Rich Hill from the 15-day injured list.
08/02/22 Boston Red Sox placed 2B Rob Refsnyder on the 10-day injured list retroactive to July 30, 2022. Right knee sprain.
08/02/22 San Diego Padres traded 1B Eric Hosmer, 2B Max Ferguson, OF Corey Rosier and cash to Boston Red Sox for LHP Jay Groome.
08/02/22 Boston Red Sox activated 3B Rafael Devers from the 10-day injured list.
08/04/22 Boston Red Sox released CF Jackie Bradley Jr..
08/04/22 Boston Red Sox placed RHP Brayan Bello on the 15-day injured list. Left groin strain.
08/04/22 Boston Red Sox activated RHP Matt Barnes from the 60-day injured list.
08/09/22 Boston Red Sox placed RHP Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 6, 2022. Lower back inflammation.
08/14/22 Boston Red Sox activated RHP Michael Wacha from the 15-day injured list.
08/16/22 Boston Red Sox activated 2B Rob Refsnyder from the 10-day injured list.
08/16/22 Boston Red Sox activated CF Enrique Hernández from the 60-day injured list.
08/18/22 Boston Red Sox sent LHP James Paxton on a rehab assignment to FCL Red Sox.
08/19/22 Boston Red Sox activated LHP Matt Strahm from the 15-day injured list.
08/23/22 Boston Red Sox placed 1B Eric Hosmer on the 10-day injured list retroactive to August 21, 2022. Low back inflammation.
08/23/22 Boston Red Sox placed RHP Nathan Eovaldi on the 15-day injured list retroactive to August 19, 2022. Right shoulder inflammation.
08/27/22 Boston Red Sox activated 2B Trevor Story from the 10-day injured list.
08/29/22 Boston Red Sox designated LHP Austin Davis for assignment.
08/29/22 Boston Red Sox designated RHP Hirokazu Sawamura for assignment.
That's just nuts. Some of that red is addition by subtraction, but some of that green was subtraction by addition.
Anyway, a healthy team outcome from roughly this point in 2022 would have been light years away from what we saw.
Last edited:
Kenley thinks we should be buyers.
https://nesn.com/2023/07/kenley-jansen-makes-trade-deadline-suggestion-to-red-sox/
https://nesn.com/2023/07/kenley-jansen-makes-trade-deadline-suggestion-to-red-sox/
No way Stroman opts in to that one year deal, though, so if you have trade for him it’s as a rental. Drew Smyly is probably the kind of guy the Sox could get for minimal cost. Not much upside but that type of pitcher could be a placeholder until the cavalry returns. Steven Matz is another; terrible results but decent peripherals this year, Sox have had interest in the past.
Doesn’t look to be a ton out there. As usual, the teams that are out of contention tend to not have any pitching.
Doesn’t look to be a ton out there. As usual, the teams that are out of contention tend to not have any pitching.
Lets see what he thinks if they lose 12 in a row and are 10 games behind WC 3 on July 28.
(I'm glad he's optimistic, though. I think I am too, as concerned as I am about the next 2 weeks.)
Sort of Peavy 2013-ish. Good, not great, in a vacuum, but sorely needed in the context of the season.
The next two weeks consist of games against the Cubs, A’s, and Mets. We made it through the first half with the toughest schedule in the league and got to the all star break 5 games over .500. I’m very optimistic about the next two weeks, and think we could easily go 6-3 or 7-2 in these series and would probably be in the second or third wild card spot
Is Stroman better than Paxton? His injury list is quite long. Paxton has less mileage and feels like a higher quality SP if healthy.
And Stroman will probably cost more.
Only way he opts in is if he needs TJ so that player option only has downside.
The irony of this is that All-Star Kenley could get a decent haul whether the Sox were buyers or sellers. Decent prospects if they're sellers. Possible fourth or fifth starter if they're buyers... might need to throw in some other pieces.
Then move Whitlock or Houck to the closer role if they're healthy.
The part that gives me pause is that there's only 2 starters who can reasonably be expected to go 6 full & good innings. Another who's less likely to, and then 2 bullpen games. Pivetta has looked good in his bulkness, but I expect that hitters are going to catch up to the Walters and Murphys. The weak schedule helps, obviously. (and, who knows, maybe that's the difference going forward that lets otherwise mediocre pitchers be better than that for a bit longer).
The idea of trading for a quality starter and trading away Jansen at the same deadline seems contradictory to me. Unless a multi-year cost-controlled pitcher falls in their lap, getting a good starter is likely going to be a rental situation. A "go-all-in" kind of acquisition. If they're doing that, it doesn't make a lot of sense to weaken the back-end of the bullpen at the same time.
There are expiring veteran contracts in Duvall and Kike that can be traded away for salary savings that would be dealing from depth and not significantly downgrading the lineup. I can see them moving them and still being buyers. I don't see it happening with the bullpen arms even if, in theory, they might garner a better return.
There are expiring veteran contracts in Duvall and Kike that can be traded away for salary savings that would be dealing from depth and not significantly downgrading the lineup. I can see them moving them and still being buyers. I don't see it happening with the bullpen arms even if, in theory, they might garner a better return.
Two of those 3 series are on the road. The Cubs and Mets aren’t that bad. In fact, the Cubbies have a +26 run differential which is right there with the Red Sox (+27). Mets are -3 but that’s better than their 42-48 record suggests.
If the Red Sox go 7-2, that would be impressive. But I’d be perfectly content with 5-4 and hoping for 6-3
The Red Sox schedule doesn’t really get soft until mid August when they have a 10 game stretch against the Royals/Tigers/Nats. But that’s really all they get. The schedule doesn’t get easy outside of that stretch unless we’re calling the next 9 games easy which I personally quibble with outside of Oakland.
If the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs, they will earn it. No soft schedule for them.
This current stretch of Oakland, Cubs, Oakland is a nice easy stretch of 9 games, and the Mets are mediocre at best. But yea that stretch against Royals/Tigers/Nats is nice. Plus we play the Yankees right after that, and they actually suck, people just don’t fully realize how poverty they really are yet
Are you really weakening anything if Whitlock replaces Jansen and the SP rental is replacing Whitlock in the rotation?
This is of course assuming Whitlock is back healthy, but it’s a move that could benefit both parts of the pitching staff.
A theoretical staff at that point would look like:
1. Bello
2. Paxton
3. SP Rental
4. Houck
5. Crawford (with hopefully Sale replacing him in August sometime)
Bullpen back end:
Martin/Schreiber/Whitlock
That said, I’m not sure there’s a team that wants Jansen who is selling a decent SP.