The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

nvalvo

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That said, I’m not sure there’s a team that wants Jansen who is selling a decent SP.
These would have to be different teams.

You could imagine something like sending Jansen to San Francisco for a good prospect, sanding Duvall to Cincinnati for a decent prospect, and then flipping those prospects (and probably adding one of ours) to Chicago for Stroman.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Are you really weakening anything if Whitlock replaces Jansen and the SP rental is replacing Whitlock in the rotation?

This is of course assuming Whitlock is back healthy, but it’s a move that could benefit both parts of the pitching staff.

A theoretical staff at that point would look like:
1. Bello
2. Paxton
3. SP Rental
4. Houck
5. Crawford (with hopefully Sale replacing him in August sometime)

Bullpen back end:
Martin/Schreiber/Whitlock

That said, I’m not sure there’s a team that wants Jansen who is selling a decent SP.
I'd argue yes if only because we don't know that Whitlock can handle the closer spot. He's never been a back-to-back guy (done it twice in his career). He's also coming off two IL stints for elbow issues, so they may not be keen to have him out there in back to back or 3 times in four games sorts of situations which are going to come up for a closer in a playoff race. I think the optimistic approach if he's in the bullpen at all is going back to bulk work every few days like he did through most of '21. That might enable them to push the likes of Winckowski, Schreiber, and Martin later into games (make one of them the closer).

I'll bolster that argument with a look at his career splits by number of days rest, where he seems to be right in the pocket (starting or relieving) with 3 or 4 days of rest between outings.

3 days of rest as a reliever: 12 games, 24 innings, 0.36 ERA, 0.892 WHIP
4 days of rest as a reliever: 8 games, 15.1 innings, 2.35 ERA, 0.848 WHIP
4 days of rest as a starter: 6 starts, 27 innings, 3.00 ERA, 1.259 WHIP

My preference for Whitlock when he returns is to start. Short of that, a bulk guy. He's not a short reliever and I don't think trying to make him one late in the season and fresh off the IL is do-able.
 

Archer1979

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These would have to be different teams.

You could imagine something like sending Jansen to San Francisco for a good prospect, sanding Duvall to Cincinnati for a decent prospect, and then flipping those prospects (and probably adding one of ours) to Chicago for Stroman.
This would be my guess as well simply because any of the buyers would be VERY reluctant to give up starting pitching.

I get the idea that Whitlock as a starter is more valuable than a closer, but only if Whitlock was durable enough to remain a starter. To me, that's the big IF.
 

chawson

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No way Stroman opts in to that one year deal, though, so if you have trade for him it’s as a rental. Drew Smyly is probably the kind of guy the Sox could get for minimal cost. Not much upside but that type of pitcher could be a placeholder until the cavalry returns. Steven Matz is another; terrible results but decent peripherals this year, Sox have had interest in the past.

Doesn’t look to be a ton out there. As usual, the teams that are out of contention tend to not have any pitching.
I think this is the ticket. Smyly or Matz seem like solid candidates. There's a shortage of truly out-of-it teams. I don't see the Sox winning any bids for a frontline starter but I bet they'd have ideas on how to tweak Smyly or Matz (who as you know, they reportedly chased two offseason ago). Matz specifically looks to have been pretty unlucky this year. OTOH, the Cardinals are down Wainwright and probably also trading Montgomery and possibly Flaherty, and may not be up for a total overhaul like that.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, agree. I imagine a deal for one of those guys, or someone similar, probably would involve trading one of Walter / Murphy (to clear a roster spot if nothing else) and a lower level prospect, and assuming some salary? It’s a risk and not a very exciting move but there truly doesn’t seem likely to be much SP available, less at a palatable cost.

Sox may be best served seeing what they can get out of what they already have. Imagine they may want another look at Kluber before cutting bait there, as unappealing as that may sound.
 

Y Kant Jody Reed

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No way Stroman opts in to that one year deal, though, so if you have trade for him it’s as a rental. Drew Smyly is probably the kind of guy the Sox could get for minimal cost. Not much upside but that type of pitcher could be a placeholder until the cavalry returns. Steven Matz is another; terrible results but decent peripherals this year, Sox have had interest in the past.

Doesn’t look to be a ton out there. As usual, the teams that are out of contention tend to not have any pitching.
Renting an All-Star in a seller's market is not a good use of resources for the Red Sox at this point in the team's trajectory so I agree that if Stroman is opting out then the whole scenario is pointless; I have no idea what his thinking is but he's having a good year so yeah I concede it's a bit pie-in-the-sky.

Smyly they could buy out cheaply after this year so he might make sense as a rental; Matz is owed $12.5 million for 2024 [age 33 season] and 2025 [age 34] so you'd want the Cardinals to pay most of his freight I think. To those names I'll add Matz's teammate Jack Flaherty, an impending FA on a team going nowhere; Cards seem disenchanted with him. Puts a *lot* of guys on base but averages over 5 innings a start and is pitching more or less to his 4 FIP. Like Smyly he'd make some sense as a less ambitious target if they're not bullish on Sale and Whitlock's health and need meat in the room.
 

JM3

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A lot of these names aren't really pitching better than Murphy/Pivetta are in their current roles & don't really have much of a place on a playoff roster.
 

chawson

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Renting an All-Star in a seller's market is not a good use of resources for the Red Sox at this point in the team's trajectory so I agree that if Stroman is opting out then the whole scenario is pointless; I have no idea what his thinking is but he's having a good year so yeah I concede it's a bit pie-in-the-sky.

Smyly they could buy out cheaply after this year so he might make sense as a rental; Matz is owed $12.5 million for 2024 [age 33 season] and 2025 [age 34] so you'd want the Cardinals to pay most of his freight I think. To those names I'll add Matz's teammate Jack Flaherty, an impending FA on a team going nowhere; Cards seem disenchanted with him. Puts a *lot* of guys on base but averages over 5 innings a start and is pitching more or less to his 4 FIP. Like Smyly he'd make some sense as a less ambitious target if they're not bullish on Sale and Whitlock's health and need meat in the room.
I really like Jack Flaherty. Seems like he's had three lost years with the pandemic and shoulder injuries. Still young. I wonder who the White Sox would want for Giolito and Grandal (a salary dump for them, a backup catcher for us). Seems like Giolito or Flaherty (or both? they're old friends and teammates) are guys we could pursue and recuperate this winter.

I was all in on the prospect of signing Stroman a couple winters back, but I now think he's too big, disruptive and Kyrie-esque a personality for Boston.
 

chrisfont9

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Renting an All-Star in a seller's market is not a good use of resources for the Red Sox at this point in the team's trajectory
Agree, my guess is that Bloom sees a lot of bargains in winter and very few in July. I suspect they try to make a big signing as well as another from the Kluber/Paxton bucket of guys who have proven upside but will take a short, risk-averse deal. But they won't spend assets for a rental now and allow themselves to get worked over.
 

joe dokes

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A lot of these names aren't really pitching better than Murphy/Pivetta are in their current roles & don't really have much of a place on a playoff roster.
Yeah. Seeing those names in print moves me closer to roll with what they've got; and Duvall is really the only player with a thoroughly diminished role here *and* who might be attractive to another team. (Hey! He had an 811OPS over the past week!).



EDIT: I am certain, however, that somehow, we will all be wrong, and something will happen that no one thought of.
 

JM3

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Yeah. Seeing those names in print moves me closer to roll with what they've got; and Duvall is really the only player with a thoroughly diminished role here *and* who might be attractive to another team. (Hey! He had an 811OPS over the past week!).



EDIT: I am certain, however, that somehow, we will all be wrong, and something will happen that no one thought of.
I would be surprised if they don't do 5 things no one has thought of.

But probably mostly of the tinkering variety.
 

TFisNEXT

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If Pivetta can consistently give them 5-6 good innings after an opener, he’s fine as the defacto #5 starter. I’m not sure his recent run of success is sustainable, but even allowing for some regression to a 4-4.50 ERA type performance in long relief would be fine.

Renting another #4/5 starter for a long shot lottery ticket (and maybe some cash) is something I could see Bloom doing as a depth piece with the uncertainty surrounding Whitlock/Houck/Sale, but I’m largely in agreement that they aren’t going to land a big name. The market is just too brutal and it would be counter-productive to what Bloom is trying to do whether we agree with all of it or not.
 

simplicio

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Montgomery hurt his hamstring in his last start, wonder if Chaim goes after an injured asset discount like he did with Schwarber in '21.
 

JM3

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Montgomery hurt his hamstring in his last start, wonder if Chaim goes after an injured asset discount like he did with Schwarber in '21.
A pitcher who can't pitch now, but can probably pitch later seems like the opposite of what we need.
 

JM3

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It’s actually one of the few things in which the Sox have depth.
Yup. 4 of them technically... the guys who started our 1st 3 games of the season (Kluber/Sale/Houck) & Whitlock started game 11.

Even if Kluber's may or may not be a real injury, that's kinda crazy.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Unless they think that Bear Claw can handle being a starter at least a few times through the rotation, I would like to see them pick up a starter somewhere. Barring a salary dump, I don't see that happening via trade of any of the Kike/Duvall/Arroyo troika.

I'd be good with trading Kike just so I never have to see him at SS again.
At this point, unless he's 100% subsidized I don't think Kike has much trade value. I'd rather they keep him and Turner together as positive influences on some of the younger guys, then just let Kike leave via free agency.
 

YTF

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At this point, unless he's 100% subsidized I don't think Kike has much trade value. I'd rather they keep him and Turner together as positive influences on some of the younger guys, then just let Kike leave via free agency.
If the Sox are buyers his roster spot may be needed. If there're any interested parties they should take whatever they can get rather than DFA.
 

sezwho

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At this point, unless he's 100% subsidized I don't think Kike has much trade value. I'd rather they keep him and Turner together as positive influences on some of the younger guys, then just let Kike leave via free agency.
I’m assuming he’d be completely subsidized, or they’d be making a mistake.

They still have several million under the cap and if the only thing that they are looking for are lottery prospects back then definitely pay the freight. No reason to finish with unused salary for 23…you can’t take it with you.
 

JM3

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I’m assuming he’d be completely subsidized, or they’d be making a mistake.

They still have several million under the cap and if the only thing that they are looking for are lottery prospects back then definitely pay the freight. No reason to finish with unused salary for 23…you can’t take it with you.
Well, if it was their only move definitely, but they have a chance to maybe use some extra $ as part of something more interesting.

They should definitely go as close to the line as they safely can, though.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If the Sox are buyers his roster spot may be needed. If there're any interested parties they should take whatever they can get rather than DFA.
Even if they aren't buyers, they're going to need a roster spot for Story not too long after the trade deadline passes. If Kike and/or Duvall aren't gone already, it just might be their spot that Story has to take. With Story/Arroyo/Chang covering the middle infield, Kike is either the back-up CF (Duvall gone) or entirely unnecessary (Duvall still around?).
 

Archer1979

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Watching the ASG is depressing. I don't know what Chaim Bloom is doing but it is not fun.
Today. This year. Its a four day break for a team that is relatively beat up. I hope the Sox are on the beach or resting up and not taking part in an exhibition game in which they could get hurt further.

It is tough seeing guys that used to wear the uniform be among the elite of the league though,
 

nvalvo

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What about trading one of our fringey SP prospects (e.g. Murphy or Walter) to CWS for one of their excellent relief pitchers?

Brandon Walter for Gregory Santos checks out in BTV.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Santos is only 23, under team control until 2029. I think they would get a lot more than Walter, who is already 26, if they put him on the market.
 

jbupstate

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Today. This year. Its a four day break for a team that is relatively beat up. I hope the Sox are on the beach or resting up and not taking part in an exhibition game in which they could get hurt further.

It is tough seeing guys that used to wear the uniform be among the elite of the league though,
Mookie and who else?
 

JM3

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Santos is only 23, under team control until 2029. I think they would get a lot more than Walter, who is already 26, if they put him on the market.
Brandon Walter is under control until he's like 32. The entire prime of a starting pitcher with a 2.31 ERA in MLB!
 

nvalvo

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Touché. What’s the going rate for a good bulk guy these days?
This would be an opportunity for Chicago to use the third or fourth best reliever from their super-deep bullpen to get something they don't have close to enough of: a plausible MLB starter signed past this year. Maybe at the deadline they get bids for a guy like Santos that are higher than that, but I don't think it's to be assumed.

Giolito and Lynn are likely gone, and Clevinger might be, too — he has a team option, but he also has another ominous elbow/biceps injury. They have a few guys in Charlotte and Birmingham who are worth a look, but they are going to have like 350 SP innings to replace.
 

grimshaw

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The reason I don't bother with doing any adding is that most contenders have more assets to offer and aren't going to sit tight. There isn't an obviously obtainable deadline prize that could move the needle enough for me to want to flirt with it.

It's a bit sobering when the Rays could do something like trade Tyler Glasnow to the Reds, and acquire Ohtani in the same deadline while the Sox agonize over whether to move Turner or not.

They absolutely need to move Paxton if they can get a close to big league ready guy. This is a ridiculously tilted sellers market.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The value of Paxton for the rest of the year and ability to offer a QO weighed against the value of whatever he brings back in a trade and it’s not clear at all, to me at least, that he needs to be moved.
 

moondog80

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The value of Paxton for the rest of the year and ability to offer a QO weighed against the value of whatever he brings back in a trade and it’s not clear at all, to me at least, that he needs to be moved.

Agree. If they have a 5% chance at the postseason on July 31, that's a different story. But for now, let's see where the next few weeks take us.
 

SouthernBoSox

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The value of Paxton for the rest of the year and ability to offer a QO weighed against the value of whatever he brings back in a trade and it’s not clear at all, to me at least, that he needs to be moved.
Given the way teams are currently in 40 man rosters crunches its not obvious what so ever that a '24 comp A pick would be less valuable than whatever Paxton brings back.

You'd need a very impressive prospect to top that.
 

walt in maryland

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To me, it all hinges on Paxton. If a contender with a pitching injury (say the Dodgers) is willing to go all in to get him, you absolutely move him and then sell in general.

If you don't like the offers for Paxton, you try to extend him and buy a little / sell a little.

I'd do this even if the team goes on a winning streak before the trade deadline. On the other hand, a losing streak would make me more aggressive about moving Paxton.
Agree. It depends on how much someone is willing to give up for Paxton. I'd be find with trying to extend him, or, failing that, extending a QO. That decision probably will be made right at the deadline.
 

walt in maryland

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I really like Jack Flaherty. Seems like he's had three lost years with the pandemic and shoulder injuries. Still young. I wonder who the White Sox would want for Giolito and Grandal (a salary dump for them, a backup catcher for us). Seems like Giolito or Flaherty (or both? they're old friends and teammates) are guys we could pursue and recuperate this winter.

I was all in on the prospect of signing Stroman a couple winters back, but I now think he's too big, disruptive and Kyrie-esque a personality for Boston.
Shoulder injuries scare the crap out of me. Pass.
 

Archer1979

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Agree. If they have a 5% chance at the postseason on July 31, that's a different story. But for now, let's see where the next few weeks take us.
This is my take as well. While I'm not convinced that this team is playoff-bound, much less a World Series contender, trading Paxton now would be throwing in the towel. It would be a betrayal of the fan base and a betrayal to the players. Got to give the players a chance to make their case on whether this is something that requires FO support or go full fire sale. Going into the ASB strong after a fairly mediocre first half helps their case.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Making the post season- even if it’s one and done would be okay with me for this season. It would mean August and September was with watching, they improved from last year and have a lot to be even more optimistic about’24. Anything beyond that is icing
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I don't think anybody regrets giving up Aldo Ramirez for Kyle Schwarber, or even Alex Scherff for Hansel Robles even though the torches and pitchforks were out in full force declaring it Worst Deadline Ever. I'd love to bring in somebody with more team control but failing that I don't think they should necessarily shy away from short term pieces as a bubble team. Especially with potential Rule 5 crunch incoming—I'm not losing any sleep over Thad Ward and Noah Song at the moment but if you can get something for those types you should do it before losing them for nothing.

They aren't bad enough to make it worth tanking for a REALLY high pick (and things just seem to work out for Chaim in the draft anyway), they have tons of interesting prospects to spare, and competitive baseball can only be good moving forward for the young guys who will be part of the next great team.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Today. This year. Its a four day break for a team that is relatively beat up. I hope the Sox are on the beach or resting up and not taking part in an exhibition game in which they could get hurt further.

It is tough seeing guys that used to wear the uniform be among the elite of the league though,
I hope some of them are taking fielding drills.
 

nvalvo

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How about Kyle Hendricks from the Cubs as a trade target?

He's 33, apparently more or less healthy again after recuperating from some sort of capsule tear in his shoulder, and on the last guaranteed year of a 4/$55m deal with a $16m club option for next season ($1.5 m buyout). I think his AAV would be like $8m for trade purposes.

A soft-tossing righty, he doesn't really strike anyone out (5.4 K/9 this season; 7.3 career), but he also doesn't walk many or concede many home runs or hard-hit balls. I have to say, I don't even pretend to understand how he makes his repertoire work, but he's been pretty good for a long time.

But if Chicago is selling, presumably now's the time to move on from Hendricks, whom I believe is the last Cub standing from the 2016 championship roster. That club option feels like it has some value if he finishes the year healthy and effective.

He should not be expensive to acquire, and he fills our glaring need for an OK starting pitcher who is expected to be healthy for the next several weeks. We don't need a playoff series Game One starter. We need a guy who can make ten starts or so while Houck and Sale and Whitlock get healthy and rehab.

edited to add that BTV has him slightly negative in value, -1.5. That seems low to me, but not by much: I'd assume he's only slightly positive in value, someone we could get for one of our interesting-but-flawed A-ball SP prospects, or two if we wanted the Cubs to pay shipping and handling.

edited again: If I were pitching Chicago on a trade, I'm proposing a Kluber/Hendricks swap, where we would also add, say, Angel Bastardo.
 
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Max Power

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How about Kyle Hendricks from the Cubs as a trade target?

He's 33, apparently more or less healthy again after recuperating from some sort of capsule tear in his shoulder, and on the last guaranteed year of a 4/$55m deal with a $16m club option for next season ($1.5 m buyout). I think his AAV would be like $8m for trade purposes.

A soft-tossing righty, he doesn't really strike anyone out (5.4 K/9 this season; 7.3 career), but he also doesn't walk many or concede many home runs or hard-hit balls. I have to say, I don't even pretend to understand how he makes his repertoire work, but he's been pretty good for a long time.

But if Chicago is selling, presumably now's the time to move on from Hendricks, whom I believe is the last Cub standing from the 2016 championship roster. That club option feels like it has some value if he finishes the year healthy and effective.

He should not be expensive to acquire, and he fills our glaring need for an OK starting pitcher who is expected to be healthy for the next several weeks. We don't need a playoff series Game One starter. We need a guy who can make ten starts or so while Houck and Sale and Whitlock get healthy and rehab.

edited to add that BTV has him slightly negative in value, -1.5. That seems low to me, but not by much: I'd assume he's only slightly positive in value, someone we could get for one of our interesting-but-flawed A-ball SP prospects, or two if we wanted the Cubs to pay shipping and handling.

edited again: If I were pitching Chicago on a trade, I'm proposing a Kluber/Hendricks swap, where we would also add, say, Angel Bastardo.
I don't think the Cubs are selling. They're the only team in a very weak division with a positive run differential.

With the second and third wild cards, very few teams are totally out of the race. And those teams are only totally out of the race because their players stink and nobody wants them. Last year's trade deadline was pretty quiet outside of the Soto deal and this year's will probably be the same. If you're all geared up for a bunch of big moves because the Red Sox need to DO SOEMTJING!!1!, you're going to be disappointed.
 

LogansDad

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Also, Hendricks has a 45.6% groundball rate. This is how he is successful with those peripheral numbers you mention:

67344

I don't believe the Red Sox would be a good fit for him.
 

nvalvo

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I don't think the Cubs are selling. They're the only team in a very weak division with a positive run differential.

With the second and third wild cards, very few teams are totally out of the race. And those teams are only totally out of the race because their players stink and nobody wants them. Last year's trade deadline was pretty quiet outside of the Soto deal and this year's will probably be the same. If you're all geared up for a bunch of big moves because the Red Sox need to DO SOEMTJING!!1!, you're going to be disappointed.
They might not be, I agree.
 

chrisfont9

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How about Kyle Hendricks from the Cubs as a trade target?

He's 33, apparently more or less healthy again after recuperating from some sort of capsule tear in his shoulder, and on the last guaranteed year of a 4/$55m deal with a $16m club option for next season ($1.5 m buyout). I think his AAV would be like $8m for trade purposes.

A soft-tossing righty, he doesn't really strike anyone out (5.4 K/9 this season; 7.3 career), but he also doesn't walk many or concede many home runs or hard-hit balls. I have to say, I don't even pretend to understand how he makes his repertoire work, but he's been pretty good for a long time.

But if Chicago is selling, presumably now's the time to move on from Hendricks, whom I believe is the last Cub standing from the 2016 championship roster. That club option feels like it has some value if he finishes the year healthy and effective.

He should not be expensive to acquire, and he fills our glaring need for an OK starting pitcher who is expected to be healthy for the next several weeks. We don't need a playoff series Game One starter. We need a guy who can make ten starts or so while Houck and Sale and Whitlock get healthy and rehab.

edited to add that BTV has him slightly negative in value, -1.5. That seems low to me, but not by much: I'd assume he's only slightly positive in value, someone we could get for one of our interesting-but-flawed A-ball SP prospects, or two if we wanted the Cubs to pay shipping and handling.

edited again: If I were pitching Chicago on a trade, I'm proposing a Kluber/Hendricks swap, where we would also add, say, Angel Bastardo.
Is that even an upgrade? They're actually skating by OK with the bullpen starts and Pivetta as a shadow-starter. They have several days off once things get going before August, when presumably one or two of the SPs might be back. I think they ride it out unless they can get a great deal on an actual starter upgrade, which probably doesn't exist. Bloom isn't going to send out anything of value to cover maybe 2-3 starts.