In the 3b thread, most posters are estimating that Sandoval and Ramirez are both significant threats to hit $100 million in contracts. The consensus seems to be that Chase Headley will be signed to a much smaller contract due to his age and less stylish performance.
I think I would prefer to have Chase straight up over the other two top of the marker third basemen, regardless of cost. The savings he can get for the Sox compared to the other two is just gravy.
Firstly, Headley is a very good defensive player, better than Sandoval and probably (unknown) much better than Ramirez. Fangraphs has Headley as a 10.8 UZR/150 3b for his career. His performance last year was 28 UZR/150, which really drove his value. He will almost certainly continue to be a plus defensive player for the term of his contract if he only signs for 4 years. At the least, we won't expect him to need to come off third to be a DH, like we do Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval who each may get 6 year contracts that put them well past their primes. In addition we don't know how well Ramirez will adjust to third or how much Sandoval will blimp after getting a big contract.
Secondly, Headley is a much better hitter than his .243/.328/.372/.700 line from last year indicates. He had a 27.4% linedrive % and 40.6% ground ball % to go with his 32% fly ball %. In spite of his very high 27.4% linedrive %, he only put up a BABIP of .301. That is very low compared to his career BABIP of .331. This was in spite of his linedrive % being higher than any other season in his career. He only hit .660 on his line drives last year. He was even more unlucky in 2013, hitting only .640 on linedrives. His .243 batting average would have been much better given even normal luck on line drives. He is a pretty patient hitter, with a career 10.3% BB rate, and strikes out only 22.6% of the time, with a 4.02 pitches per plate appearance. He will slot in nicely as a lefty in the 5 spot behind either Napoli or Cespedes against RHP to provide balance as well as keeping the lineup going and drive in some runs.
Thirdly, Headley has a profile that stands to be much helped by being in the AL East. This is much less important than the first two considerations but definitely a consideration, and one I have spent the most time thinking about, and charting. Headley is primarily a pull hitter from both sides of the plate. However, he does use the whole field so he won't get the crazy shifts that you are seeing these days. Most importantly, he will make good use of Fenway park. His homers to right field as a left handed hitter and no doubters, and he has an awful lot of flyouts that might squeak around the Pesky pole. He also hits a lot of flyballs and liners to left (probably soft liners and popups) that are outs in the NL West that could scrape the wall in Fenway. Many of his pulled fly balls that are outs in the NL West will be homers in the bandboxes in the AL East. In the smaller ballparks in the AL East, his spray chart profiles much better than where he has played in the past. His is a linedrive/flyball hitter as a right handed hitter, which obviously profiles nicely in Fenway. His OPS+ jumped from 90 before the trade to 119 with the Yankees, which works well with my theory that he may be an undervalued hitter. In spite of his bad luck with BABIP, he was a fWAR 4.4 player of and brWAR of 3.5. If we can get a 3.5-4 WAR player for 4/68, we should jump right on that opportunity. Especially if my expectation that he will be even better next year than his last two years in the AL East. Then you consider that Sandoval and Ramirez are likely to have much higher committments and annual salaries, and Headley is clearly the best 3b free agent for the Red Sox.
Headley is probably a 20 million a year player, but won't command that on the market.
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=4720&position=3B&type=battedball&pid2=4720&ss1=2012&se1=2014&ss2=2012&se2=2014&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=R&vs2=R
I think I would prefer to have Chase straight up over the other two top of the marker third basemen, regardless of cost. The savings he can get for the Sox compared to the other two is just gravy.
Firstly, Headley is a very good defensive player, better than Sandoval and probably (unknown) much better than Ramirez. Fangraphs has Headley as a 10.8 UZR/150 3b for his career. His performance last year was 28 UZR/150, which really drove his value. He will almost certainly continue to be a plus defensive player for the term of his contract if he only signs for 4 years. At the least, we won't expect him to need to come off third to be a DH, like we do Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval who each may get 6 year contracts that put them well past their primes. In addition we don't know how well Ramirez will adjust to third or how much Sandoval will blimp after getting a big contract.
Secondly, Headley is a much better hitter than his .243/.328/.372/.700 line from last year indicates. He had a 27.4% linedrive % and 40.6% ground ball % to go with his 32% fly ball %. In spite of his very high 27.4% linedrive %, he only put up a BABIP of .301. That is very low compared to his career BABIP of .331. This was in spite of his linedrive % being higher than any other season in his career. He only hit .660 on his line drives last year. He was even more unlucky in 2013, hitting only .640 on linedrives. His .243 batting average would have been much better given even normal luck on line drives. He is a pretty patient hitter, with a career 10.3% BB rate, and strikes out only 22.6% of the time, with a 4.02 pitches per plate appearance. He will slot in nicely as a lefty in the 5 spot behind either Napoli or Cespedes against RHP to provide balance as well as keeping the lineup going and drive in some runs.
Thirdly, Headley has a profile that stands to be much helped by being in the AL East. This is much less important than the first two considerations but definitely a consideration, and one I have spent the most time thinking about, and charting. Headley is primarily a pull hitter from both sides of the plate. However, he does use the whole field so he won't get the crazy shifts that you are seeing these days. Most importantly, he will make good use of Fenway park. His homers to right field as a left handed hitter and no doubters, and he has an awful lot of flyouts that might squeak around the Pesky pole. He also hits a lot of flyballs and liners to left (probably soft liners and popups) that are outs in the NL West that could scrape the wall in Fenway. Many of his pulled fly balls that are outs in the NL West will be homers in the bandboxes in the AL East. In the smaller ballparks in the AL East, his spray chart profiles much better than where he has played in the past. His is a linedrive/flyball hitter as a right handed hitter, which obviously profiles nicely in Fenway. His OPS+ jumped from 90 before the trade to 119 with the Yankees, which works well with my theory that he may be an undervalued hitter. In spite of his bad luck with BABIP, he was a fWAR 4.4 player of and brWAR of 3.5. If we can get a 3.5-4 WAR player for 4/68, we should jump right on that opportunity. Especially if my expectation that he will be even better next year than his last two years in the AL East. Then you consider that Sandoval and Ramirez are likely to have much higher committments and annual salaries, and Headley is clearly the best 3b free agent for the Red Sox.
Headley is probably a 20 million a year player, but won't command that on the market.
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=4720&position=3B&type=battedball&pid2=4720&ss1=2012&se1=2014&ss2=2012&se2=2014&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=R&vs2=R