The Celtics Offseason

cheech13

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Brown is not overpaid for the Supermax. He is a top 50 (he is a top 25 player but doesn't matter for the economics of the case) player and is getting the SuperMax before a salary cap bump with the TV renewals. The SuperMax becomes its own asset especially an early cycle SuperMax with the new CBA rules. Only place a SuperMax kills you is if you give to a borderline top 50 played like Tobias Harris or some one who just doesn't play like Kawhi or Irving.

When you look at the new CBA, the most valuable assets for luxury tax teams are SuperMax contracts, potential lottery picks, and then lottery second round picks. Late first round picks have gained value as well but not as much as solid second round pick up.
This doesn’t make any sense to me. Boston is the only team that can offer a Super, everyone else just the max. By this very constraint you are paying above market price for his production. What the Super offers is better control over assets, but that comes with a financial penalty.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I do think Al is too old to play the minutes he played this season and in the playoffs. I don't think Al is too old to contribute shorter minutes off the bench and in certain matchups, like against Embiid or Giannis.
 

mcpickl

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FWIW, Mike Gorman was on T&R this morning and said the team needs a new PG and C. Said Rob is a 4 and Al is too old, and that Marcus should be a backup 1/2.
I think it might be time for Mike to retire.
 

TomRicardo

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This doesn’t make any sense to me. Boston is the only team that can offer a Super, everyone else just the max. By this very constraint you are paying above market price for his production. What the Super offers is better control over assets, but that comes with a financial penalty.
Because the market is controlled. Even if he became a free agent, it is not just about offering the most money. A max contract becomes a vehicle to trade for another max contract. Especially with the new CBA, where it is going to be almost impossible to trade three dimes for a quarter.

There is no Jaylen trade right now that would make the Celtics better. You get more options once he is on the Supermax. Because of that Jaylen has all the leverage. Only an idiot of Haywood Sullivan levels would dick around with Jaylen this summer with the supermax. You sign the supermax with Jaylen give it another two years and evaluate then. At that point you will have more options to move Jaylen because you can always trade a bigger contract for a smaller one but you can't do it the other way around if you are a second apron team.
 

Cellar-Door

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Because the market is controlled. Even if he became a free agent, it is not just about offering the most money. A max contract becomes a vehicle to trade for another max contract. Especially with the new CBA, where it is going to be almost impossible to trade three dimes for a quarter.

There is no Jaylen trade right now that would make the Celtics better. You get more options once he is on the Supermax. Because of that Jaylen has all the leverage. Only an idiot of Haywood Sullivan levels would dick around with Jaylen this summer with the supermax. You sign the supermax with Jaylen give it another two years and evaluate then. At that point you will have more options to move Jaylen because you can always trade a bigger contract for a smaller one but you can't do it the other way around if you are a second apron team.
But again.... that's a max contract, it doesn't really flow to say that a Supermax is better than a regular max, especially when the new CBA only makes it impossible to trade 3 dimes for a quarter if you exceed limitations that are much easier to exceed if you have multiple supermax, than if you have multiple maxes. You are laying out the reasons you want to not let Jaylen walk much more than the argument that a supermax is good. A Supermax has one advantage.... it makes it harder for a guy to say no to it, that's the only advantage to it, after that it's really limiting you on the margins in terms of staying under the second apron more than anything else.

The goal of basically every team starting in 2024 is going to be to find ways to stay under the 2nd apron 3 of every 4 years, now every once in a while a team might decide not to, but that won't be the goal and teams won't likely treat it how they treat the current repeater.
 

lexrageorge

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I think it might be time for Mike to retire.
Horford and Smart all got badly outplayed by their Miami counterparts and are both in decline, and TL is obviously no longer his prime self. Sounds like Gorman is on point.
 

Cellar-Door

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Horford and Smart all got badly outplayed by their Miami counterparts and are both in decline, and TL is obviously no longer his prime self. Sounds like Gorman is on point.
Horford's counterpart got benched so not so sure about that
 

TomRicardo

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But again.... that's a max contract, it doesn't really flow to say that a Supermax is better than a regular max, especially when the new CBA only makes it impossible to trade 3 dimes for a quarter if you exceed limitations that are much easier to exceed if you have multiple supermax, than if you have multiple maxes. You are laying out the reasons you want to not let Jaylen walk much more than the argument that a supermax is good. A Supermax has one advantage.... it makes it harder for a guy to say no to it, that's the only advantage to it, after that it's really limiting you on the margins in terms of staying under the second apron more than anything else.

The goal of basically every team starting in 2024 is going to be to find ways to stay under the 2nd apron 3 of every 4 years, now every once in a while a team might decide not to, but that won't be the goal and teams won't likely treat it how they treat the current repeater.
The Supermax for a 7-9 year player aligns with a max contract for 10+ year player (not all max contracts are equal). The designated player rule (SuperMax) basically bumps you up a year group. Up to 6 Super Max is equal to 7-9 Max contract and 7-9 SuperMax is equal to a 10+ year Max.

Edit - Which means DP Max for Jaylen will equal a regular max for him in year 2 of his " Super Max" contract
 
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Cellar-Door

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The Supermax for a 7-9 year player aligns with a max contract for 10+ year player (not all max contracts are equal). The designated player rule (SuperMax) basically bumps you up a year group. Up to 6 Super Max is equal to 7-9 Max contract and 7-9 SuperMax is equal to a 10+ year Max.
I get it, the point was... paying more for a guy than you could is almost never particularly good, it certainly isn't some great benefit. The Supermax is fine, but it isn't a particular positive, it's a trade of a role player for a bit more control.
 

radsoxfan

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I presume the point of the SuperMax is to encourage players to re-sign with their own teams, but it seems like in Jaylen's case the huge spread almost works in the opposite direction. 4/189M is so different from 5/295M. For a guy like Tatum you just pay it, but for a guy like Jaylen it potentially swings from good deal all the way to a bad deal for the team.

If the SuperMax was a more reasonable premium in this situation (say 5/250M), they probably just offer it. But now, if they make that exact same offer (far more than Jaylen can get otherwise) it lands entirely differently because of these artificial limits and they risk Jaylen pissing Jaylen off.

I wouldn't gloss over the future (potential) downside of 295M for Jaylen. If he stagnates, Jaylen could be a negative asset you have to staple 1st round picks to get rid of. It's not a guarantee you can just swap him on that contract for some other disgruntled but very good max guy in a lateral "shake things up" kind of move.
 

TomRicardo

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I get it, the point was... paying more for a guy than you could is almost never particularly good, it certainly isn't some great benefit. The Supermax is fine, but it isn't a particular positive, it's a trade of a role player for a bit more control.
Wait, why do you think Jaylen would take any less than a dime of the supermax? If he walks the Celtics are completely screwed so they would be forced to trade him for pennies on the dollar. Either way, they aren't top four team on the East have no real realistic path back. He has the leverage. Also there is not a huge amount of advantage saving the 6.5 million between a max deal and super max for a team over the luxury tax.
 

radsoxfan

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Wait, why do you think Jaylen would take any less than a dime of the supermax? If he walks the Celtics are completely screwed so they would be forced to trade him for pennies on the dollar. Either way, they aren't top four team on the East have no real realistic path back. He has the leverage. Also there is not a huge amount of advantage saving the 6.5 million between a max deal and super max for a team over the luxury tax.
This is sort of an odd, artificially bargained negotiation the Celtics and Jaylen are dropped into... But there are certainly reasons Jaylen would sign for the most $ he can even if that's not also the most the Celtics can theoretically spend.

If Jaylen wants to play the leverage game he certainly can do that, but he doesn't have to play that game. And he doesn't have to hold a grudge about the Celtics offering more than any other team can offer at a # lower than 295M.
 

Cellar-Door

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I presume the point of the SuperMax is to encourage players to re-sign with their own teams, but it seems like in Jaylen's case the huge spread almost works in the opposite direction. 4/189M is so different from 5/295M. For a guy like Tatum you just pay it, but for a guy like Jaylen it potentially swings from good deal all the way to a bad deal for the team.

If the SuperMax was a more reasonable premium in this situation (say 5/250M), they probably just offer it. But now, if they make that exact same offer (far more than Jaylen can get otherwise) it lands entirely differently because of these artificial limits and they risk Jaylen pissing Jaylen off.

I wouldn't gloss over the future (potential) downside of 295M for Jaylen. If he stagnates, Jaylen could be a negative asset you have to staple 1st round picks to get rid of. It's not a guarantee you can just swap him on that contract for some other disgruntled but very good max guy in a lateral "shake things up" kind of move.
The advantage of the supermax with Jaylen is that because of the old rules on extensions, as a non-max guy his extension amount was limited to a number (120% of current salary) that was just an instant no go. This means they can offer him more (even if not the full $290 over 5) than anyone else, and also they'll know where they are a year out so they have little chance of him walking for nothing (where otherwise they'd either have to trade him now or take the chance he pulls a Kyrie).

Wait, why do you think Jaylen would take any less than a dime of the supermax? If he walks the Celtics are completely screwed so they would be forced to trade him for pennies on the dollar. Either way, they aren't top four team on the East have no real realistic path back. He has the leverage. Also there is not a huge amount of advantage saving the 6.5 million between a max deal and super max for a team over the luxury tax.
1. I really doubt it would be pennies on the dollar, past guys in the supermax type tier have gotten good returns. I think there is little reason to think a Jaylen deal (and the sattelite deals that likely come from it) drop the Celtics out of the top 4 in the East. They were the best team in the league on net, 2nd best on record, and Jaylen's impact on that wasn't nothing, but he's not even close to Tatum in terms of impact, the return for him would likely be enough to make them still a top 4 seed easily. As to why Jaylen would take it... does he want to make more money with BOS or less elsewhere, some guys it's about principle, others it's about making the most money they can, others have other desires (winning, being the guy, where they want to live, who they want to play with), if the Celtics offer him $260 or 265M (so 31.5-31.8% year 1 with 8% raises) he's making $20M+ more over 4 years than in FA, plus has a $60M 5th year option (obviously you give him the option in return for shaving percent off the base).

2. There is a major advantage to saving 6.5-7M starting in 2024 when the 2nd apron and it's punitive punishments come in.

There is a reason a lot of the best cap guys (Marks, Smith, etc.) are saying the new CBA has changed a Jaylen Brown designated vet full 35% extension from a no-brainer to a much more risky/complex decision.

Before we heard about the new CBA rules I thought it was a no-brainer to offer Jaylen the full 35% with 8% designated vet on the theory that you could trade him if you needed, and it's just Wyc's money. But now... less clear. Paying that much for 2 guys is REALLY tough in the new CBA, and trades for big money players will be harder going forward as teams try to duck the apron.

I don't think a full supermax for Jaylen is devastating (barring injury or stagnation/regression) but I do think it's a legit question now as to whether they will/should offer it. I think a lot of teams will suddenly be a lot more careful with transactions where in the past they said "it's just money"
 

TomRicardo

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This is sort of an odd, artificially bargained negotiation the Celtics and Jaylen are dropped into... But there are certainly reasons Jaylen would sign for the most $ he can even if that's not also the most the Celtics can theoretically spend.

If Jaylen wants to play the leverage game he certainly can do that, but he doesn't have to play that game. And he doesn't have to hold a grudge about the Celtics offering more than any other team can offer at a # lower than 295M.
Yes the owners caused this because so many were so bad at running their teams for so long. The created a system that caps the market for top 50 players in the league. It is the very reason trying to say a player may not be worth ~7 milllion AAV which you wouldn't never be able to use to sign a free agent is silly. This is all procedural not a free market evaluation of his talent. Do you want to make sure you keep a salary slot for a top 40 player or do you want to roll the dice and see if you put together a good enough team to keep Tatum here? You can be as pissed as you want at Brown but this is the basketball equivalent of saying you want to get rid of all police.
 

TomRicardo

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They were the best team in the league on net, 2nd best on record, and Jaylen's impact on that wasn't nothing, but he's not even close to Tatum in terms of impact, the return for him would likely be enough to make them still a top 4 seed easily.
Do you remember the playoff series against the Nets without Jaylen? What trade for Jaylen do you see? You can't trade him straight for Dame, Beal, Zion, or any other veteran on a max. I guess you can add Pritchard and some picks to get Julius Randle, Kyle Lowry, or RJ Barrett. That should square you for a solid 45-48 win season and Tatum biting his arm off to get the hell out in two years.

Once again this is some Haywood Sullivan shit. All you have to do is give him the extension and not fuck around.

Edit - Jaylen Brown on expiring contract does not have that much value especially since any team that trades for him cannot over him a max extension until free agency
 
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Cellar-Door

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Do you remember the playoff series against the Nets without Jaylen? What trade for Jaylen do you see? You can't trade him straight for Dame, Beal, Zion, or any other veteran on a max. I guess you can add Pritchard and some picks to get Julius Randle, Kyle Lowry, or RJ Barrett. That should square you for a solid 45-48 win season and Tatum biting his arm off to get the hell out in two years.

Once again this is some Haywood Sullivan shit. All you have to do is give him the extension and not fuck around.
I mean... yes I don't think they should cut Jaylen and not replace him with other players... no shit.

Your entire premise is based on 2 things:
1. An old CBA thought process regarding salary.
2. This wildly unrealistic notion of how a trade would work.... you can trade Jaylen this offseason for literally anyone you want, we have plenty of salaries to make it work. Even the most expensive of those guys, which is Dame... Jaylen and Gallo works, Jaylen Pritchard and a minimum works. Picking terrible Knicks is fun but also dumb. In terms of guys who have been mentioned by national writers as potential targets in a Jaylen deal whether straight up or 3 team you're looking at:
Bridges, Siakam, Anunoby, Simons (and #3 which might get flipped), Lamelo Ball, etc.

Honestly I think Jaylen IS going to sign and quite possibly for a bit less than the full supermax in the end. Windhorst basically said he thinks there is no chance Jaylen and Tatum get broken up and that talking to people on both sides he thinks there is common ground on an extension. His source on Jaylen's side is likely Glushon, and the phrase common ground implies something beyond "he'll only take the full 35%/8%
 

TomRicardo

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I mean... yes I don't think they should cut Jaylen and not replace him with other players... no shit.

Your entire premise is based on 2 things:
1. An old CBA thought process regarding salary.
2. This wildly unrealistic notion of how a trade would work.... you can trade Jaylen this offseason for literally anyone you want, we have plenty of salaries to make it work. Even the most expensive of those guys, which is Dame... Jaylen and Gallo works, Jaylen Pritchard and a minimum works. Picking terrible Knicks is fun but also dumb. In terms of guys who have been mentioned by national writers as potential targets in a Jaylen deal whether straight up or 3 team you're looking at:
Bridges, Siakam, Anunoby, Simons (and #3 which might get flipped), Lamelo Ball, etc.

Honestly I think Jaylen IS going to sign and quite possibly for a bit less than the full supermax in the end. Windhorst basically said he thinks there is no chance Jaylen and Tatum get broken up and that talking to people on both sides he thinks there is common ground on an extension. His source on Jaylen's side is likely Glushon, and the phrase common ground implies something beyond "he'll only take the full 35%/8%
You can't trade Gallo to start.

Why would the Nets trade Bridges who is under contract for Brown who would definitely bounce at the end of the year? They don't control their own draft picks..
Are you adding Rob to get Siakam? I am not sure how you are getting to get the salaries to match otherwise unless you do Hauser, Kornet, and Pritchard. Once again why Toronto risk Brown leaving?
Anuboby is a worse version of Brown, once again why would Toronto want to do that if Brown would just bounce?
Simons is somewhat interesting but let's be honest Simons is just a younger Brown with an injury history and four less inches of reach. This is a downgrade you hope bridges the gap in the next three years.

Look if he takes less awesome, good on him. But I wouldn't hold the line if he says he wants every dime.
 

Cellar-Door

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You can't trade Gallo to start.

Why would the Nets trade Bridges who is under contract for Brown who would definitely bounce at the end of the year? They don't control their own draft picks..
Are you adding Rob to get Siakam? I am not sure how you are getting to get the salaries to match otherwise unless you do Hauser, Kornet, and Pritchard. Once again why Toronto risk Brown leaving?
Anuboby is a worse version of Brown, once again why would Toronto want to do that if Brown would just bounce?
Simons is somewhat interesting but let's be honest Simons is just a younger Brown with an injury history and four less inches of reach. This is a downgrade you hope bridges the gap in the next three years.

Look if he takes less awesome, good on him. But I wouldn't hold the line if he says he wants every dime.
TOR are mostly has been mulled as the team that wants picks, and would shift their vets for picks that the Celtics get from moving Brown. And obviously a team wants to talk to Jaylen about how interested he is in re-signing there before they make a deal. It has never stopped teams before, but it is a consideration.

Gallo can certainly be traded, just needs to pick up his option, which he will. As an aside not sure what salary you are using but Siakam for Brown works straight up, 37.8 vs 31.8 is within the 125%.
None of these trades would be perfect, but there is definitely options out there if talks break down, and honestly... Jaylen isn't perfect either, he's an uneasy fit with Tatum (and we don't know how he feels about being the #2 guy in BOS long-term).

Overall I would guess an extension gets done, just pointing out that the supermax is much riskier than it was just a few months ago, and it's come up quite a bit in recent weeks about Brown from some tied in people, so they have to at least balance it in their thinking. My guess... they settle at 32% or 33%, 5th year option.
 

Toe Nash

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I doubt anyone on here can read the minds of every team and knows what they think of Jaylen or of their own chances / players. Teams are nuts, sometimes they will decide to rebuild, and sometimes there are ownership issues etc. There would be a solid return for Jaylen out there if they wanted. Whether or not they want to deal him, find that deal and pull the trigger is a totally different question.
 

benhogan

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I doubt anyone on here can read the minds of every team and knows what they think of Jaylen or of their own chances / players. Teams are nuts, sometimes they will decide to rebuild, and sometimes there are ownership issues etc. There would be a solid return for Jaylen out there if they wanted. Whether or not they want to deal him, find that deal and pull the trigger is a totally different question.
Can Brad pay Jaylen more than the Super MAX?

The mere suggestion above of trading Jaylen Brown for Kyle Lowry has scared me straight ;)
 

Eddie Jurak

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I don't want to see the Celtics trade Jaylen, but if they decide to go that route because they view the new CBA restrictions as making it too tough to build a team around two super max players, I'm more intrigued by chasing some upside for '24-25 and beyond than swapping Jaylen for role players since the team takes a step back next year no matter what if they trade him. If the team has to be a little worse next year, let’s at least have some players we think can be meaningfully better for Tatum’s prime age 27-30 years (I know, hard to think that far ahead when he’s only 19).
This is almost certain nonstarter unless you plan to do the same thing with Tatum (dish him for futures). I think there is a decent chance (though it is by no means assured) that the team could sell Tatum on a vision of the team that does not involve Brown. I think the chance of selling Tatum on a step back/rebuilding year (during his absolute prime) is miniscule. And if you move on this without buy in from Tatum, he's going to want out.
All I ever ask for is actual evidence, actual facts, actual numbers. I want to know how not giving Jaylen the supermax and letting him walk or trading him for pennies will make this team better. These two guys have been to 5 ECF Finals together and an NBA finals, so I assume whatever deal folks around here want to make, it's Championship or bust, because that's pretty much the only improvement we can make. I'm damn sure if we get rid of Jaylen, and lose in the 2nd round next year, folks won't be all upset when I remind them that we had a perennial ECF Finals team and made it worse, because Jaylen things or something.
My numbers are these: 1) 8 turnovers in game 7 and 2) 5/$295 headed into a much more restrictive cap environment. I think Brown benefits from Tatum's presence and the defensive attention he draws. I don't think he contributes in all phases of the game the way Tatum does, either, and I question whether a Celtic team built around Tatum and Brown will have (and choose to invest) the resources needed to build a championship team. We have 2 years of evidence that the two together cannot do it on their own.
 

DJnVa

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Point Guard is really tough. This team needs a Rajon Rondo type facilitator and I am really at a loss at who is out there. I have seen Tyus Jones but I am not sure how you pry him from Memphis
I've seen some twitter talk about Charlotte potentially drafting Scoot Henderson and maybe be willing to move LaMelo Ball, not sure it's a roster fit though unless you move Smart or White and then there's discussion on the Tatum/Brown/Ball hierarchy...

Anyway, not sure how serious the twitter folks were or if was just frustration and looking for any potential PG was an answer.
 

TomRicardo

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I doubt anyone on here can read the minds of every team and knows what they think of Jaylen or of their own chances / players. Teams are nuts, sometimes they will decide to rebuild, and sometimes there are ownership issues etc. There would be a solid return for Jaylen out there if they wanted. Whether or not they want to deal him, find that deal and pull the trigger is a totally different question.
Sure what is it? There is a very limited amount of salary and talent that line up with an expiring Brown. This is not like counting grains of sand, here.
 

Auger34

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Edit - Jaylen Brown on expiring contract does not have that much value especially since any team that trades for him cannot over him a max extension until free agency
[/QUOTE]

Bill Simmons had Brian Windhorst on a podcast somewhat recently and was talking about trading Jaylen and this was Windhorst's exact reply (he added more detail to it obviously but that was the headline).

Say what you will about Windhorst, he has a pretty good idea of upcoming trades and their value.

If you trade Jaylen now, it's HIGHLY unlikely you get back something close to full value.
 

benhogan

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Sure what is it? There is a very limited amount of salary and talent that line up with an expiring Brown. This is not like counting grains of sand, here.
There are tons of trade permutations. Especially 3 team options. A lot of NBA teams (with CAP space) would offer everything not nailed down to land an All-NBA player. The new CBA was designed to have lottery teams be able to land Super MAX players and they would line up around the corner. POINTZ pay/fill the stands, and that's exactly what Jaylen Brown is, a classic All-Star NBA scorer extraordinaire. If he was a #1, he'd probably average 30ppg. That's exciting and fun to watch.

One thing he doesn't do is greatly impact Off/Def Net Rating. We have 7 years/17,000 minutes of evidence there so I highly doubt a Jaylen Brown replacement creates 10-13 fewer wins. SSS alert, but they were 11-4 in the 15 games he didn't play this past season.

In the good old days (8 weeks ago), you give Jaylen Brown the Super Max without thinking twice about it (just Wyc's $$$). BUT there is nothing wrong with speculating about trades/cheaper contracts in light of the new CBA.

We'll see over the next few months how this all goes down. Brad & Zarren are excellent at CAP/roster building. I'm 100% confident they aren't Haywood Sullivan incompetent and they'll figure out the best solution. BUT I'm not grabbing my pearls over if Jaylen Brown is signed or traded. Tatum yes, he's the guy you freak out about.
 

TomRicardo

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TOR are mostly has been mulled as the team that wants picks, and would shift their vets for picks that the Celtics get from moving Brown. And obviously a team wants to talk to Jaylen about how interested he is in re-signing there before they make a deal. It has never stopped teams before, but it is a consideration.
No, it isn't. It doesn't make sense for Toronto to trade Siakam for Brown. If they are going to step away from Siakam it would mean they are rebuilding so there is no reason they would want a Jaylen Brown rental. There is zero reason Brown would want to stay on a rebuilding Toronto. There are way better There really isn't a rosy option to trade Brown now.
 

Auger34

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There are tons of trade permutations. Especially 3 team options. A lot of NBA teams (with CAP space) would offer everything not nailed down to land an All-NBA player. The new CBA was designed to have lottery teams be able to land Super MAX players and they would line up around the corner. POINTZ pay/fill the stands, and that's exactly what Jaylen Brown is, a classic All-Star NBA scorer extraordinaire. If he was a #1, he'd probably average 30ppg. That's exciting and fun to watch.

One thing he doesn't do is greatly impact Off/Def Net Rating. We have 7 years/17,000 minutes of evidence there so I highly doubt a Jaylen Brown replacement creates 10-13 fewer wins. SSS alert, but they were 11-4 in the 15 games he didn't play this past season.

In the good old days (8 weeks ago), you give Jaylen Brown the Super Max without thinking twice about it (just Wyc's $$$). BUT there is nothing wrong with speculating about trades/cheaper contracts in light of the new CBA.

We'll see over the next few months how this all goes down. Brad & Zarren are excellent at CAP/roster building. I'm 100% confident they aren't Haywood Sullivan incompetent and they'll figure out the best solution. BUT I'm not grabbing my pearls over if Jaylen Brown is signed or traded. Tatum yes, he's the guy you freak out about.
I think the issue is why would a team trade for Jaylen now when he could become a free agent and there's no reason for him to stay with the team that trades for him? You would have to trade him to a team that knows he wants to stay there and that depresses the market.

I really want this core to win a championship together but if they can trade Jaylen for one of the packages you've laid out here previously, I would be bummed but I would accept it because they got value back. I just don't think that offer is out there if he's not extended or I think that offer will have to happen next offseason when he's locked into a contract
 

jezza1918

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This is almost certain nonstarter unless you plan to do the same thing with Tatum (dish him for futures). I think there is a decent chance (though it is by no means assured) that the team could sell Tatum on a vision of the team that does not involve Brown. I think the chance of selling Tatum on a step back/rebuilding year (during his absolute prime) is miniscule. And if you move on this without buy in from Tatum, he's going to want out.

My numbers are these: 1) 8 turnovers in game 7 and 2) 5/$295 headed into a much more restrictive cap environment. I think Brown benefits from Tatum's presence and the defensive attention he draws. I don't think he contributes in all phases of the game the way Tatum does, either, and I question whether a Celtic team built around Tatum and Brown will have (and choose to invest) the resources needed to build a championship team. We have 2 years of evidence that the two together cannot do it on their own.
But we also have multiple years of evidence that both Tatum and Brown continue to improve, and while Brown is likely closer to his peak than Tatum, I still think both will be better players next year. Regarding the surrounding talent, my honest question is how much luck is involved? To use just one example, did 27 year old Caleb Martin dramatically improve this year, or did he get insanely hot at the right time? By just about any metric I can find Martin was a decidedly better player LAST season than he was this season.
Win Shares/48 min regular season vs playoffs last year (.139/.016). This season those numbers are .086/.178. Does that have anything to do with Butler being a better leader than Tatum? Or Spoelstra being a better coach than Mazz? Although my gut tells me - "no, Martin just picked a good month go get hot," I am genuinely asking the question because I dont know. Circling back to our guys, if Tatum and Brown play EXACTLY like they did this postseason, but Martin played to his normal ability and Smart played at an all star level don't you think Celtics would be getting ready for game 1 tonight? PS I used Smart because his ws/48 minutes in reg season was just a tick higher than Martin's but significantly lower in the playoffs (.092 reg season, .112 playoffs). As frustrating as they playoffs were, and as restrictive as that cap is going to be, I think you bank on Tatum/Brown leveling up and hitting it with the right role players...and keep knocking at that door.
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
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There are tons of trade permutations. Especially 3 team options. A lot of NBA teams (with CAP space) would offer everything not nailed down to land an All-NBA player. The new CBA was designed to have lottery teams be able to land Super MAX players and they would line up around the corner. POINTZ pay/fill the stands, and that's exactly what Jaylen Brown is, a classic All-Star NBA scorer extraordinaire. If he was a #1, he'd probably average 30ppg. That's exciting and fun to watch.

One thing he doesn't do is greatly impact Off/Def Net Rating. We have 7 years/17,000 minutes of evidence there so I highly doubt a Jaylen Brown replacement creates 10-13 fewer wins. SSS alert, but they were 11-4 in the 15 games he didn't play this past season.

In the good old days (8 weeks ago), you give Jaylen Brown the Super Max without thinking twice about it (just Wyc's $$$). BUT there is nothing wrong with speculating about trades/cheaper contracts in light of the new CBA.

We'll see over the next few months how this all goes down. Brad & Zarren are excellent at CAP/roster building. I'm 100% confident they aren't Haywood Sullivan incompetent and they'll figure out the best solution. BUT I'm not grabbing my pearls over if Jaylen Brown is signed or traded. Tatum yes, he's the guy you freak out about.

What I am trying to point out, is there isn't really a value add event from dumping Brown because of his contract situation so your best option even if you want to trade Brown is to extend him especially with Tatum's extension coming up the next summer. With Brown you are still a contender. I have yet to see someone draw up a reasonable trade of an expiring Brown that keeps the Celtics a top team in East, let alone make them better. I know people are pissed about Brown's Game 7, as it was atrocious, but you need to look at the whole landscape and understand what you can feasible do.

Getting rid of Brown just to get rid of Brown is a net negative move which could get the Celtics out. I also think Brad is going to give the Brown the Supermax because logistically it makes the most sense.
 

4 6 3 DP

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Oct 24, 2001
2,397
The issue shouldn't be getting rid of Jaylen Brown. The issue is putting players on the floor who ensure he isn't handling the ball against post season defensive intensity. The goal should be putting players on the floor who accentuate the strengths of Tatum and Brown, they need a guard who can handle the ball and get it to the two stars in positions on the floor that maximize those possessions. From the last two playoff runs I don't believe that guard is on the roster.
 

bosockboy

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Jul 15, 2005
21,046
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The issue shouldn't be getting rid of Jaylen Brown. The issue is putting players on the floor who ensure he isn't handling the ball against post season defensive intensity. The goal should be putting players on the floor who accentuate the strengths of Tatum and Brown, they need a guard who can handle the ball and get it to the two stars in positions on the floor that maximize those possessions. From the last two playoff runs I don't believe that guard is on the roster.
Spot on. Brown has been put in position to fail. He’s insanely vulnerable to traps and shouldn’t ever be facilitating.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
21,153
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I think the issue is why would a team trade for Jaylen now when he could become a free agent and there's no reason for him to stay with the team that trades for him? You would have to trade him to a team that knows he wants to stay there and that depresses the market.

I really want this core to win a championship together but if they can trade Jaylen for one of the packages you've laid out here previously, I would be bummed but I would accept it because they got value back. I just don't think that offer is out there if he's not extended or I think that offer will have to happen next offseason when he's locked into a contract
A lot of this depends on what Jaylen wants, he's played 7 years here and should have a say on where he plays the next 4-5 seasons. The reality is he may be tired of playing 2nd fiddle to Tatum, he may not love Boston for his brand/business, he may be pissed about the IME situation, he may not enjoy playing in a sports-crazed town, he may not like the pressure of being under the Celtic microscope, he may want to play closer to home or play in Washington DC where he could talk to politicians and try to enact change. Jaylen is a complex guy and hard to read, he's not your typical pro athlete. I'm just throwing darts. It might not even be about the $$$?

Brad/Zarren have done over a dozen clever moves over the last 24 months. The one thing that fucked this team in that time was IME's behavior. So I'm excited and looking forward to seeing what they do with the roster here. There are many ways/opportunities for this team to improve now and in the future compared to the other CAP-challenged teams.

What I am trying to point out, is there isn't really a value add event from dumping Brown because of his contract situation so your best option even if you want to trade Brown is to extend him especially with Tatum's extension coming up the next summer. With Brown you are still a contender. I have yet to see someone draw up a reasonable trade of an expiring Brown that keeps the Celtics a top team in East, let alone make them better. I know people are pissed about Brown's Game 7, as it was atrocious, but you need to look at the whole landscape and understand what you can feasible do.

Getting rid of Brown just to get rid of Brown is a net negative move which could get the Celtics out. I also think Brad is going to give the Brown the Supermax because logistically it makes the most sense.
Whatever silly fake trades I or others conjure up is just fun fan speculation.

BUT I really have HUGE confidence in Brad/Zarren (borderline overconfident in them). If they believe that 2nd Team All-NBA is selling HIGH on Jaylen Brown, I'm not going to question it. Just like if they sign him to a super MAX I won't question that either.

I'm old enough to remember Haywood Sullivan's greatest hits o_O and the Celtics will do better than that buffoon.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
No, it isn't. It doesn't make sense for Toronto to trade Siakam for Brown. If they are going to step away from Siakam it would mean they are rebuilding so there is no reason they would want a Jaylen Brown rental. There is zero reason Brown would want to stay on a rebuilding Toronto. There are way better There really isn't a rosy option to trade Brown now.
read what you just quoted...... it very specifically notes that TOR would not be the team getting Brown.
I mean listen.... when it comes to who has a better idea what Jaylen's trade value is around the league, I'm gonna trust the guys who literally talk to NBA GMs and Assistant GMs and Coaches on a daily basis slightly more than SoSH posters. We're not inventing these names out of thin air, or the idea that there would be a robust market, this is what people with league connections are saying.
 

Cellar-Door

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35,735
Anyway, moving away from 3 step deep hypos with Jaylen:
Keith Smith has a nice outline of the offseason dates here in his last post for Celticsblog before he goes full-time national:
https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/6/1/23745349/boston-celtics-2023-offseason-primer

Key dates:
June 20- Gallo player option (seems almost 100% he picks that up, date is notbale though because it means any draft night trade could include him)
June 22- the draft.
June 29- Muscala team option (I assume they pick it up)
June 29- Also on that day is qualifying offers, Grant is obvious, but Davison and Kabengele less so (Smith guesses Davison yes, Kabengele no, which I think is probably correct)
June 30- can begin FA negotiations
July 1- Can officially offer extensions (Jaylen is the big one, but Pritchard also eligibale and could extend Tatum)
July 6- Free agency
 

Eddie Jurak

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But we also have multiple years of evidence that both Tatum and Brown continue to improve, and while Brown is likely closer to his peak than Tatum, I still think both will be better players next year.
And what did their year-to-year improvement, combined with an improved supporting cast, get them? It got them a worse performance in the playoffs.

Tatum is better than Brown in almost every respect, and I am just not convinced that a team built around the two of them and an ever-worsening supprting cast (because of the Tatum and Brown supermaxes and the new salary rules) is ever going to get it done.[/QUOTE]
 

Leon Trotsky

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Is Danilo Gallinari better than Grant Williams? He clearly can't guard smaller guys or even bigger faster guys, but Grant wasn't really that awesome at that either. That alone seems like it could be an easily attainable upgrade?
 

Cellar-Door

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Is Danilo Gallinari better than Grant Williams? He clearly can't guard smaller guys or even bigger faster guys, but Grant wasn't really that awesome at that either. That alone seems like it could be an easily attainable upgrade?
very different players, but Grant is likely better.
ASSUMING Gallo is back to what he was... he's a bit better offensive player and a much worse defender. Grant is a good defender, arguably a really good one. Gallo is somewhere on the bad to very bad continuum. On offense Gallo used to be very good, but he's been in decline for years.
 

jezza1918

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And what did their year-to-year improvement, combined with an improved supporting cast, get them? It got them a worse performance in the playoffs.

Tatum is better than Brown in almost every respect, and I am just not convinced that a team built around the two of them and an ever-worsening supprting cast (because of the Tatum and Brown supermaxes and the new salary rules) is ever going to get it done.
I am not convinced Tatum/Brown will ever get it done either, because winning a title is exceptionally hard and you need more than talent, you need to get lucky at various points. But I'm also not convinced splitting them up will make the path to a title easier, which seems to be where we disagree. Which I totally understand, by the way...I don't think there can be a right answer here given we are trying to predict future outcomes.
 

the moops

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Jan 19, 2016
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Bill Simmons had Brian Windhorst on a podcast somewhat recently and was talking about trading Jaylen and this was Windhorst's exact reply (he added more detail to it obviously but that was the headline).

Say what you will about Windhorst, he has a pretty good idea of upcoming trades and their value.

If you trade Jaylen now, it's HIGHLY unlikely you get back something close to full value.
Yet there are other "as knowledgeable" NBA guys that have said just the opposite. Lowe and MacMahon both said there would be teams lined up and many that would make substantial offers.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
12,825
Yet there are other "as knowledgeable" NBA guys that have said just the opposite. Lowe and MacMahon both said there would be teams lined up and many that would make substantial offers.
A lot of people are still operating under the assumptions of the old CBA. A team acquiring JB has less worry about him bolting for a superteam due to cap smoothing and JB on a 30% deal makes teaming him with his buddy Mitchell a possibility. So in the real world Lowe, et al, are right, teams with cap space are going to be more willing than ever to make that gamble (Houston, for example, seems made for it with their lack of long term payroll and surplus of picks to keep building around a theoretical Brown/Mitchell alignment).
 

Justthetippett

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Aug 9, 2015
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Yet there are other "as knowledgeable" NBA guys that have said just the opposite. Lowe and MacMahon both said there would be teams lined up and many that would make substantial offers.
After the KD mess last year they really can't shop (or even actively listen to offers for) Brown unless they are prepared to move him for whatever offer they get. I think he's too sensitive to go through that again and then subsequently stay in Boston long term. Maybe there's a way to manage that through communication between him and Brad, but I doubt it. So they are kind of stuck. It's hard to gauge the market in this scenario. For the record, I'd like to see him back long term. And maybe working on his handle...
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
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After the KD mess last year they really can't shop (or even actively listen to offers for) Brown unless they are prepared to move him for whatever offer they get. I think he's too sensitive to go through that again and then subsequently stay in Boston long term. Maybe there's a way to manage that through communication between him and Brad, but I doubt it. So they are kind of stuck. It's hard to gauge the market in this scenario. For the record, I'd like to see him back long term. And maybe working on his handle...
I agree with the bolded. It would be concerning to anyone associated with the team to find out that it was being run by reactionary morons.
 
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mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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Do you remember the playoff series against the Nets without Jaylen? What trade for Jaylen do you see? You can't trade him straight for Dame, Beal, Zion, or any other veteran on a max. I guess you can add Pritchard and some picks to get Julius Randle, Kyle Lowry, or RJ Barrett. That should square you for a solid 45-48 win season and Tatum biting his arm off to get the hell out in two years.

Once again this is some Haywood Sullivan shit. All you have to do is give him the extension and not fuck around.

Edit - Jaylen Brown on expiring contract does not have that much value especially since any team that trades for him cannot over him a max extension until free agency
This is not necessarily true.

A team with enough cap space can give him a raise up to his max for next season, and then extend him at his max off of that.

It's part of why I had targeted Houston in a 3 way trade involving Brooklyn in a theoretical Jaylen trade. (I don't think Jaylen is getting traded)