The Devil and Allen Webster

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Sprowl

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In the first instance, it was the Devil Rays against Allen Webster, and Webster performed well, with some framing help from his catcher on pitches at the knees. What stood out to me about Webster was the mistake avoidance and the variety of movement on his fastball. His velocity (avg 93, max 95 on the four-seam fastball; 92, max 93 on  the sinker) was down 1-2 mph from his 2013 appearances, but to my eyes, much better commanded. Jennings' double was the only mistake that he paid for. Last year he grooved pitches at critical moments, but on Sunday when he was wild, at least he was not wild in the strike zone. He moved the ball in and out, up and down with impressive confidence in the fastball, and his dependence on offspeed pitches was substantially reduced (17 changeups, 6 sliders, compared to 63 fastballs+sinkers). The changeup is still a swing-and-miss pitch. His control wasn't pinpoint, and he lost the strike zone in the 4th inning. The pitchfx pattern is a little bit scattered but he kept the ball out of the belt zone:
 

 
Webster's devil is still fastball command, but he won the first debate.
 

OttoC

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And of his 86 pitches, only 48.8% were strikes. I'd be surprised if that rate led to long-term success.
 

InsideTheParker

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OttoC said:
And of his 86 pitches, only 48.8% were strikes. I'd be surprised if that rate led to long-term success.
And that was with a very friendly umpire. Another ump and there are closer to 45% or fewer strikes.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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OttoC said:
And of his 86 pitches, only 48.8% were strikes. I'd be surprised if that rate led to long-term success.
 
In this connection, it's kind of interesting, and not in a good way, to see that the biggest holes in that strikezone plot are exactly where there should be clusters, i.e., around the inner and outer edges. It's almost as if there was an oppositely charged magnet at each side of the plate pushing balls either well into or well out of the zone.
 

tbrown_01923

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I can't find a source on Minor League strike percentage short pushing through the box scores.  But I did see some reports where he was over 60% in games - that (accounting for the quality of umpiring) must translate. The 48 was with CV - I wonder that it would have been with AJP?  
 
While in the zone, he was OK.  But he didn't really hold my attention (boring) - perhaps the complete lack of control.  Perhaps I am over this season.
 

OttoC

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He made eight starts for Boston last season and was below a 60% strike rate in half of them: 67.9%/55.6%/63.4%/57.0%/55.7%/58.5%/62.5%/63.3%(1.0 IP relief)/60.2%. The average AL pitcher in 2013 threw 63.4% strikes.
 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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OttoC said:
He made eight starts for Boston last season and was below a 60% strike rate in half of them: 67.9%/55.6%/63.4%/57.0%/55.7%/58.5%/62.5%/63.3%(1.0 IP relief)/60.2%. The average AL pitcher in 2013 threw 63.4% strikes.
 
 
Webster said that he's been working hard on repeating his mechanics and his fastball command.  Perhaps he was nervous and that lead him to lose his mechanics at points. 
 
On Monday, according to Speier, his strike percentage was 67% (64 of 95).  If he can repeat that in the big leagues, he's going to be pretty good.
 

Doctor G

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He needs to establish the 2 seamer inside to lefties. Right now he seems reluctant to do this. He seems a lot more confident pitching inside to righties.
 

mt8thsw9th

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His walks are down 0.5 per 9, but at the expense of 2.5K/9 (and fewer ground ball outs). What's the upside of someone with those types of peripherals in the MLB? 
 

OttoC

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2011 - 61% (AA)
2012 - 60% (AA)
2013 - 59% (AAA)
2014 - 61% (AAA)
 
bb-ref.com (only gives rounded K% when you do a game log summary)
 

KillerBs

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Webster certainly did not impress at all yesterday. He walked 5 in 5.1 and was missing badly consistently throughout the game. From what I saw he topped out at 93, and was sitting at 91. If he hit 95, I missed that pitch. The change looked pretty good to my eye, but he threw a lot of balls with it too. Pretty much entirely fastball-change, as noted above. Hard to win at this level throwing 91-92, with no command at all. Not writing him off to say the least, but no point in sugar coating it, it was not a good day for him yesterday.   
 

HriniakPosterChild

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
In this connection, it's kind of interesting, and not in a good way, to see that the biggest holes in that strikezone plot are exactly where there should be clusters, i.e., around the inner and outer edges. It's almost as if there was an oppositely charged magnet at each side of the plate pushing balls either well into or well out of the zone.
Not sure where you're saying here, but with magnets, opposite polarities attract.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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HriniakPosterChild said:
Not sure where you're saying here, but with magnets, opposite polarities attract.
 
OK, then, same polarities. Whatever makes magnets fucking repel each other, so it looks like there's some force keeping them apart, like the way it looks on the fucking plot.
 
(Shit, I really needed a good grade on this quiz, too.)
 

mt8thsw9th

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HriniakPosterChild said:
Not sure where you're saying here, but with magnets, opposite polarities attract.
 

 
InsideTheParker said:
Perhaps my sarcasm meter if broken, but if not: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Devil_and_Daniel_Webster
 
It is; he's referring to the misspelling in the title.
 
edit - actually, it looks like that was fixed and...that's not what was being referred to methinks.
 
So yeah, it's probably off, but for a different reason.
 

mt8thsw9th

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After a good MLB debut last season, he's yet to have an impressive start, with most being quite bad. He now has more walks than strikeouts at the major league level. He looks like a poor man's Matt Clement at this point.
 

Moosey

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I'll repeat what I said in the game thread.  He seems to sling the ball up to the plate when throwing his fastball.  There are some very distinct losses of momentum and choppiness in his mechanics on his fastball.  He is not transitioning smoothly after he plants, so his hips and especially shoulders turn more violently than they need.  His arm action looks ok, but his release is all over the place because of the torque on his violent shoulder rotation.  So his balls sail wide to either side of the zone and occasionally find it.
 
It looks like his changeup is his most comfortable pitch based on mechanics because almost none of that is present.  His hips and shoulders move together much better, his release point is more regular as a result and he gets predictable action and placement from it.
 
I don't know if its the "yips" of being up in the bigs, but he needs to slow down his hips and shoulders on his fastball and throw to the target rather than trying to go full Beckett and overthrowing it.
 

Pumpsie

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I'm not a Webster fan and never have been.  Just seems like another guy who throws hard, has good stuff, but never masters the strike zone and never learns how to pitch.  He should be further along by this point.  He's got the rest of this season, where there's nothing to lose, to show that there's still some hope for him.  At this point, you can't be relying on him for anything...and certainly not to be a future starter. 
 

nvalvo

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He was hardly a control artist in the minors, but he was much better in that department than he's shown in the bigs. I wonder if just taking a few regular turns in the rotation will settle his nerves. 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Farrell thinks that Webster can be fixed: http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20140803-red-sox-journal-farrell-believes-he-can-get-webster-under-control.ece.

"The one thing we have to be clear with Allen is that he’s not as far away as he might seem coming out of that outing,” Farrell said. “Sure, the line score doesn’t lie, but he’s a small adjustment away from being in the strike zone more consistently.”

* * * *

But it was one mechanical flaw that caused most of the problems Webster endured, something both the pitcher and the manager see as fixable.

“He has a tendency to lead with his body a little bit more, and it spiraled in a way with him,” Farrell said. “As that (third) inning was unfolding, he was starting to lead more and more with his body, and his arm had an inability to catch up consistently to get his release point out in front.”
 

Plympton91

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That's good. I was wondering about the wisdom of letting him make the next start, but if they think there's just a single adjustment hopefully they can fix it in the side session.
 

mabrowndog

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In the "Thanks, Capt. Obvious" department, the kid pitched FAR better than he did last Saturday in New York, exhibiting improved control while throwing strikes. But while his command was certainly better, it still wasn't great. He hit his catcher's target more frequently but still also a good bit, especially on his fastballs and more so earlier than late in the game. Webster also gave up some very loud outs on hard-hit balls: Pujols' laser to RF in the 1st, Trout's liner to deep CF for a sac fly in the 3rd, Freese's line drive 4-3 DP to end the 4th, Aybar's liner to CF in the 6th, and the hard LD to RF by Navarro in the 7th.
 
More pros than cons to be sure, and it was nice seeing him wriggle out of some situations that heretofore would have crushed his soul, but he's definitely got some work to do.
 
He busted out his slider this time around while the changeup took a back seat, and also dialed back on his sinker reliance. The 21 SL earned him 6 swings and misses, while the fastball (46) got him 3 and the change (12) produced 1. He also threw 5 sinkers (2 swings, no misses). That's 10 whiffs out of 84 pitches, which was great to see.
 
Before:

 
 
After:

 
 
Webster threw more far more strikes this time around while getting a lot less help from the home plate ump. Last week, facing a lefty-heavy NY lineup and working almost exclusively on the outside, he was gifted three balls out of the zone, though he lost the borderline battle 2 to 1.
 

 
 
Last night against a more balanced order with its most potent threats hitting RH, he was clearly burned on three balls well inside the zone, while getting only 1 of 4 calls on the fringes.
 

 
 
His first-inning K of Trout really seemed to set the tone for his confidence. All 4-seamers, all in the zone, and even after missing the call on his initial offering, he got him swinging:
 

 
 
After yielding 2 runs in the 3rd he issued a 2-out walk to Pujols, and I'm sure most of us had that familiar sense of impending doom. But he got Hamilton to bite on the second of two sinkers for the inning-ending groundout:
 

 
 
Pujols led off the 6th and we got to see  a great mix of Webster's stuff. A high fastball to start it off, an outside slider for a called strike, a changeup on the low-outside corner fouled off, another slider low & away, and a low-inside changeup to get him swinging.
 

 
 
If the schedule and rotation holds and he stays on turn, we'll next see him back at Fenway on Thursday night vs the Astros. After that, a home rematch with the Angels on 8/19, the Mariners on 8/24, in Tampa on 8/30, and back at the Toilet on 9/4.
 
The stretch run would be vs BAL (9/9), at KC (9/14), at BAL (9/20), and vs NYY (9/26). So we've got at most 9 more chances to watch this kid refine and settle in.
 

Sprowl

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Webster won his third straight round vs Mr Scratch. That mechanical fix, whatever it was, seems to have held for three straight quality starts. Webster is looking like promising rotation material for 2015. The cluster in the lower left shows 24 changeups, 18 swings, and 9 whiffs. He really sells the arm action, and the strong horizontal movement makes it effective even if the batter gets the timing right. DLR and Webster both have killer changeups.
 
 

ctsoxfan5

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Sprowl said:
Webster won his third straight round vs Mr Scratch. That mechanical fix, whatever it was, seems to have held for three straight quality starts. Webster is looking like promising rotation material for 2015. 
 
 
 
Even in those three starts though, he has thrown 18.2 IP with 8 Ks and 7 BBs.  Hopefully he can improve those numbers in his remaining starts this season.
 

Sprowl

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Another round to Mr. Scratch. Webster didn't walk the bases full, but he was wild in the strike zone. He could control the fastball, but he couldn't command it, and the Mariners teed off on him. Webster also lost 1-2 mph on his fastball from past starts. On the bright side, the changeup and slider continue to miss bats.
 
 

Sprowl

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The latest tally of Webster's starts: three stinkers, six good ones. His killer changeup was on display in Eric Hosmer's first at-bat in Kansas City: fastball-change-change-fastball-slider-change-change-fastball-changeup on the outside corner. He threw each of his pitches for a strike, and kept the ball out of Hosmer's power zone.
 

 
Hosmer won the next round when Webster left a changeup middle-middle.
 

Sprowl

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Webster ended his major league 2014 with three good starts in a row. Perhaps the most significant number for Webster was the number of walks issued in the month of September: 5 in 24 innings. For a pitcher whose devil has always been fastball command, the abilities to throw strikes and spot the fastball are the better angels of his nature.
 
Some other significant numbers from his start against the Devil Rays:
  • average fastball velocity: 93.6 -- not as fast as Webster's early peak, but much more effective because he seems to have a better idea where his pitches are going. He doesn't hit the edges yet, but he avoids the belt-high meatball.
  • peak fastball velocity: 96.1 -- but his two hardest fastballs were both Longoria, and both resulted in singles. Fastball command is what counts for Webster, and when it comes to velocity, less is more.
  • whiffs on the changeup: 9 of 24; 7 of 20 against lefties -- that is a legitimate out pitch, with both deception and movement (-8.2" horizontal break).
The jury's verdict: "We find for the defendant, Jabez Stone. Perhaps 'tis not strictly in accordance with the evidence, but even the damned may salute the emerging fastball command of Mr. Webster. He may contend for a spot in the 2015 starting rotation."
 
 

jscola85

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Webster's 11% swinging strike rate suggests he should end up with more strikeouts than he has so far.  For example, Taz is at 11.7% and his K/9 is 9.5 this year.  Webster is at 5.5%.  Something doesn't add up there.  I would suspect if he can sustain a 11-12% swinging strike rate, that K rate will improve substantially next year.
 

Rasputin

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Buchholz, RDLR, Webster, Kelly, would not be a terrible 4/5ths of a rotation if the other fifth is the ace.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Rasputin said:
Buchholz, RDLR, Webster, Kelly, would not be a terrible 4/5ths of a rotation if the other fifth is the ace.
 
I want to believe this, too, but I fear it's wishcasting. Not one of them has shown the ability to sustain an ERA below 4 in the last 12 months, and in an era of pretty drastically reduced offense. 
 
Since the All-Star break, the point at which the team clearly had nothing left to play for and there was zero pressure, those four have done this:
 
Clay: 67.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 58K, 20 BB, .654 OPS against
Rubby: 45.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 33 K, 19 BB, .862 OPS against
Joe: 54 IP, 4 ERA, 38 K, 30 BB, .619 OPS against
Allen: 53.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, 32 K, 23 BB, .748 OPS against
 
If those four lines were extrapolated out to a full season, that would be a terrible 4/5 of the rotation indeed. Terrible. Guaranteed last place.
 
You'd have 4/5 of your staff with a K/BB ratio of 1.6. That's not very good. There are 67 pitchers in MLB with more than 100 innings thrown that have a better K/BB than that. 
 
Their collective K/9 is 6.16. There are 58 starters better than that with 100 IP. 
 
Even with an ace, those four would each have to improve significantly to land the Sox with a rotation that's at all competitive. 
 

foulkehampshire

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MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
 
I want to believe this, too, but I fear it's wishcasting. Not one of them has shown the ability to sustain an ERA below 4 in the last 12 months, and in an era of pretty drastically reduced offense. 
 
Since the All-Star break, the point at which the team clearly had nothing left to play for and there was zero pressure, those four have done this:
 
Clay: 67.2 IP, 4.52 ERA, 58K, 20 BB, .654 OPS against
Rubby: 45.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 33 K, 19 BB, .862 OPS against
Joe: 54 IP, 4 ERA, 38 K, 30 BB, .619 OPS against
Allen: 53.2 IP, 5.20 ERA, 32 K, 23 BB, .748 OPS against
 
If those four lines were extrapolated out to a full season, that would be a terrible 4/5 of the rotation indeed. Terrible. Guaranteed last place.
 
You'd have 4/5 of your staff with a K/BB ratio of 1.6. That's not very good. There are 67 pitchers in MLB with more than 100 innings thrown that have a better K/BB than that. 
 
Their collective K/9 is 6.16. There are 58 starters better than that with 100 IP. 
 
Even with an ace, those four would each have to improve significantly to land the Sox with a rotation that's at all competitive. 
 
There's logic that most of these guys will improve next season. I don't think extrapolating the lines of inexperienced pitchers (Ruby, Kelly, Webster), or guys having bad years (Buchholz) in entirely indicative of how they'll fare in 2015.
 
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