The Final
- Thread starter The Napkin
- Start date
The common theme of this collapse is very slow starts from Florida, leading to multigoal deficits they can't dig out of.
First 10 minutes might decide it on Monday.
First 10 minutes might decide it on Monday.
I do think Monday is a 100% coin flip. I did not feel like Edmonton should have lost all of games 1-3, so the 3-0 lead was a bit of a mirage. Overall the two feels feel even.
Edmonton had so many chances in Game 1. They could easily be lifting the Cup right now.
Nothing better than a Stanley Cup Final Game 7. I was in the building the last time an Alberta team played a Florida team in a SCF Game 7. It was a 3 hour heart attack but also the best sporting event experience ever. Will enjoy not really caring who wins on Monday.
In the span of five days, Miami has experienced a Celtics championship celebration party and their hockey team melting down after being up 3-0.
LOL
LOL
Was my unfounded fear about the Celtics. Hockey is a much more momentum based sport in my view.
Maybe this question would be better off being posed after tonight if it happens. But fuck it, I'm jacked for the game tonight and need to kill some time.
If the Oilers pull it off, where does it rank on the list of greatest comebacks? It would seem like there's only 2 real contenders, of which we are quite familiar with:
28-3: By most of the win probability models, the Falcons reached somewhere around 99.6% and 99.7% odds of winning that game. The knock against would be that it was one game as opposed to winning 4 straight. I never looked and will try to go back but, even up 3-0, I don't believe the Pathers win probablity for the series approached 99%. It's the old overcoming a huge defecit in one game vs. the slow climb of winning 4 straight.
2004 ALCS: Only time it's been done in baseball. We know the history. The only knock would be that it wasn't the World Series. However, the history of the two teams, the rivalry, the tension to me elevates it over this Oilers/Panthers one. Maybe I'm biased but that was peak Red Sox/Yankees, Peak Curse, etc.
If the Oilers pull it off, where does it rank on the list of greatest comebacks? It would seem like there's only 2 real contenders, of which we are quite familiar with:
- 28-3
- 2004 ALCS
28-3: By most of the win probability models, the Falcons reached somewhere around 99.6% and 99.7% odds of winning that game. The knock against would be that it was one game as opposed to winning 4 straight. I never looked and will try to go back but, even up 3-0, I don't believe the Pathers win probablity for the series approached 99%. It's the old overcoming a huge defecit in one game vs. the slow climb of winning 4 straight.
2004 ALCS: Only time it's been done in baseball. We know the history. The only knock would be that it wasn't the World Series. However, the history of the two teams, the rivalry, the tension to me elevates it over this Oilers/Panthers one. Maybe I'm biased but that was peak Red Sox/Yankees, Peak Curse, etc.
Another thing about the ALCS is they played five straight days so there was never a breather and the tension just escalated.
Here, there is too much time off that it takes the edge off the series for me. They should’ve played last night.
The finals for both the NBA and NHL need to shorten the days off in between. They need to play every other day.
Here, there is too much time off that it takes the edge off the series for me. They should’ve played last night.
The finals for both the NBA and NHL need to shorten the days off in between. They need to play every other day.
I think losing a 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup finals would be a bigger choke than both 28-3 and the 2004 ALCS. In both 28-3 and the 2004 ALCS I believe the better team won. I don't think there's a question that the Pats were better than Atlanta - maybe you could debate the 04 Yankees were better than the Sox but, either way, they were both very closely matched. Despite the 3-3 series score I think Florida is a much better hockey team than Edmonton. We've been talking about how deep they are all playoffs - their forecheck, the stifling D, Bob coming up big. Edmonton has had a generational player and a hot PP (at least until the finals) propelling them. The fact that Florida, in my opinion the far better team, may choke away a 3-0 lead in a Stanley Cup finals makes the choke bigger than both 28-3 and 2004 ALCS.
With all that said, I think the 2004 ALCS is a bigger choke if you factor in the history, rivalry, what happened the year before, the curse, etc. I may be biased though.
A point for this one, I think, is that the Oilers are not only attempting to come from 3-0, but also be the first Canadian team to lift the Cup in over 30 years.
Doesn't the NHL usually play every other day - am I wrong in thinking the extended breaks this series are only because of the travel distance between the two cities? Like I said, could be completely wrong, but I thought past finals had maybe one (or maybe even none) extended break between games 2 and 3 but were otherwise every other day.
Counterpoint - having a nontrad Florida team makes the matchup not as compelling as 04 ALCS. If this was Edmonton / Calgary (can't happen, I know)...
They've basically given them 2 days for travel. It makes sense given the distance between the two cities but I would note that in 2011 the Bruins and Canucks only got 1 day off between games 6 and 7. As a viewer, I would think a Sunday night broadcast would do much better than a Monday night but maybe I'm wrong.
I disagree with this sentiment a bit. I feel like when coming back from something like this the "playing loose" or "playing with house money" applies in games 4 &5...but past that I think some pressure mounts for the team coming back as well, because the chances of winning are now real.
Definitely think there is a good chunk more pressure on Florida, just not all of it.
I always kind of wonder about this. Do they really feel added pressure? Is all of Canada really behind them? I guess the majority?
I would think Flames and Canucks fans aren't too enthused about the Oilers being the one to end the draught. I'm not sure how some of the eastern Canada markets would feel though. Montreal is full of themselves. Toronto thinks they are the center of the hockey universe so there may be some jealousy.
That 2010 Bruins team was beat up - Krejci, Sturm and Seidenberg were out and a bunch of others were walking wounded.
Just to add on to the 2004 ALCS: the Sox were not only down 3-0 in games, but were down to their final 3 outs while down a run and facing literally the best relief pitcher of all time while still in his prime. I know the expectancy model had the Sox as 23% to win the game at that point, but that model did not include Rivera's effectiveness as a lockdown reliever.
Yep. 2 extra inning games where the Sox were trailing in the late innings and came back to tie then hang on for dear life in extra innings. The degree of difficulty seems a bit higher. The Oilers have largely dominated games 4-6 and have never trailed. 8-1, 3-0 (before it turned hairy) and 5-1. They haven't quite been to the brink like the 04 Red Sox were.
They also had Rask in net instead of Tim Thomas, who owned the Flyers in his career.