Ignore that article, it's moronic. For one, it treats this game as if it was the same as any average game- not accounting for the fact that the Pats' and Jets' offense and defense might be better or worse than average.
Gronk went over the middle for the game-tying drive, but otherwise seemed sheltered for the most part. Was this a protective measure, or maybe Gronk was limited in what he could give today so Revis gets largely wasted on a big decoy?
You don't know this was his reasoning - he didn't say. There are a number of other points and lines of reasoning mentioned in this thread, maybe those were his reasons, maybe they weren't. He's asked point blank for his reasoning at press conferences, and does what he's famous for: gives short evasive answers and is generally an ass to the media. Of course BB doesn't owe us answers. I don't really give a shit, the Pats win and he's an all-time great coach. It's great when he drops football knowledge a la Breakdowns, and it would be fun to understand what was behind the OT thinking. However I don't think you can say that you know BB's reasoning if he hasn't explained it.
This is honestly my only real complaint during today's game. Also, I believe they have done this, more or less, in 3 of their last 5 games.
Not sure what to say, you can disagree with his line of thought but it's pretty obvious what he was thinking.
He does state in just about every presser that he thinks the execution needs to be better and the coaching needs to be better. Key there though is that he knows what needs work and what doesn't. He doesn't need a gotcha baiting keyboard jockey displaying that he knows better than coach.
I think if DEN loses once, and KC and the Jets both win next week, KC wins the division, NY is #5 and DEN is #6, but not positive.
Just because he writes down some numbers and arrows and calls it a "Markov Chain"* doesn't mean he's done a good job describing reality. In particular, as you note, this model doesn't differentiate the Pats and Jets from average teams. And that is a huge problem- adding that info can easily change the final conclusion.Here's Burke's original OT Markov model (which claims a 56-44 advantage for the receiving team). Obviously it's super crude (assuming league-average everything, and averaging a whole range of field positions in the "no score" branches), but it's pretty easy to follow.
I don't disagree with the strategy at the end of the 1st half but I do have a problem with the execution. If you are going to run the clock then do exactly that and don't expose your players to unnecessary injury.
See it all the time, but I can never understand or countenance running out the clock at the end of the first half for any reason. One minute of time at the end of the 2nd quarter is just as valuable as one minute of time at the end of the game. Use the opportunity to try to score. Seven points scored a minute before halftime count the same as seven points at the end of the game.
Coaching as in better game planning and play selection. Instead of coming off as inflammatory go back and watch A Football Life after the 4th and 2 call in Indy. He said to the team in film session that he does not ever apologize for making decisions such as that play and today that are "against the grain" if it is truly best for the team in that spot.
This is bollocks.
They were fine even through the white pass if they just called a timeout or hurried. Playing to make sure above all that it is beyond a doubt it is the last possession, conservative for me but ok, whatever, they always feel they can adjust the offense at halftime and they don't want to go down two scores. Once they get the ball to the 35 or w/e with two timeouts it is just way too conservative down seven even with the limited offense, punt protection issues, and the young back end of the secondary. You are of course right, just give up if you are going to give up (Chiefs might lose a legit super bowl run because of this issue), but I'd have to go back and look at the clock to see when they could have given up and gotten to halftime without punting.
Spot on. 13-3 with constant roster turmoil all year is pretty solid. In some respects, its been one of their more impressive seasons. So many things have to fall into place to win one Super Bowl, never mind back to back Super Bowls.
I remember that Denver game -- the wind was a big factor. Not so much today (I was in the upper de at MetLife) as the wind was imperceptible.
Yes, I know (or used to know) what Markov chains are and I mislabeled this probability tree as such.
I think we are on the same page. Apologies for not being more clear. I was actually just expanding on what you were saying.
You're spot on. They definitely protected gronkowski yesterday from the middle of the field until late in the game. It definitely seems like Belichick view of playing/resting players late in the season has evolved. Or more likely after all the injuries this year taking a different approach. The fact that he is so willing to adapt to the situation is what makes him great.
It wasn't BS, it was PI.It was close enough where it could have been let go but it wasn't.
I have not watched a replay of every pass from that game but I do know that DPI was not called often (was there another instance at all?). I am willing to say with certainty that there were plays that were closer to DPI in that game that were let go. It's just common sense knowing the number of passes thrown and the propensity for contact between a defender and a receiver. To change the in game standard of what is and is not DPI after the two minute warning is deplorable and another example of horribly inconsistent officiating.
Are you sure? My understanding is that all Belichick cared about was kicking off to start OT because wind wasn't really a factor. BB told Slater multiple times to choose "kick off", but Slater got all confused at the coin toss because he thought he'd be able to choose to kick and the direction. I think BB was perfectly happy giving the Jets the ball and the wind to ensure that the Pats were able to kick off.
For the way the game was called all day, that one call stood out badly.
Not true, If Gronk did what Marshall did on the 30 yard TD he would have been called for OPI guaranteed. That was a good no call, but there is a reason we complain about OPI so much.
It was PI, but it was the sort of play that was happening all day, and that was the only time they called it. There was one play where Gronk was running down the field with Cromartie (I think) hanging off his uniform and they didn't call it (Gronk caught the ball anyways). That's why I hate the "let them play" ref style - it always ends up having a game defining impact.
