But it's a dumb argument to just throw out any guy who improved without context. Josh Allen was maybe the worst high volume rookie QB ever, he also was a physical freak and took a huge step forward year 2. Context matters.... why did those guys struggle early and improve, what did their trajectory look like... did it happen in the last 10-15 years.
Listen if people say "there is zero chance Jones improves" yeah that's too far, but... most people AREN'T saying that, they are saying that QBs with the profile Jones has have not in recent years seen the kind of major improvements year over year that the QBs with big time arms or athleticism do, so comparing him to guys with big time athletic/arm traits, or who started their career 20+ years ago when the league was very different, isn't useful. Context matters, and it's a lot easier to project growth for guys with elite physical traits.
Yeah, though worth noting his last 3 weeks dropped him to 7th on that list puts him in the Teddy B, Burrow, Minshew grouping.
Well then there are no real comps for Mac, because: (1) he had a better rookie season than the vast majority of QBs ever do, and (2) he doesn't have the same set of physical tools as many/most of the really successful QBs.
So who, really, is "like" Mac Jones? Nobody.
I mean, Joe Burrow is kinda close, right? Similar physical tool profile. Both came from mega powerhouse programs in the SEC. Both won the national championship with absolutely mind-boggling seasons at QB.
Burrow had a really good leap from year one to year two, but that was aided by having absolutely elite skill position players around him. And even then, it took him a while to really become JOE BURROW.
His first 12 games last year: 68.3% comp, 3,135 yds, 261.3 yds/g, 8.3 y/a, 23 td, 14 int, 98.3 rating
His last 4 games of the year (skipped week 17): 75.9% comp, 1,476 yds, 369.0 yds/g, 10.5 y/a, 11 td, 0 int, 134.9 rating
I mean he was good the first 12 games, with definitely some excellent games in there, but 98.3 rating is solid, not phenomenal. But holy cow those last four games...unreal.
This year, by the way: 64.0% comp, 812 yds, 270.7 yds/g, 6 td, 4 int, 85.1 rating - that rating is similar to his rookie year, not year 2.
Regression by Burrow? Looks like it through three games. I'm not saying Mac is as good, or better than, Burrow. I'm saying that Burrow must be the most apt comp for Mac, and he's experiencing regression in year 3, playing with incredible skill position guys around him. Mac is showing regression in year 2 with worse skill position players around him.
The point: progress isn't linear.