The premature re-signing Lester thread

[DJnVa]

 

 

Curt Schilling @gehrig38 · 37 minutes ago
​Darkhorse? Yanks offering 25x8 with 4 yr opt out. Brian has ALWAYS been sneaky good at winning when no one knows he's in the game
 

 
 
So his statements on evolution weren't his craziest internet thoughts of the week?
 
 
Sneaky good at winning when no one knows he's in the game is like a hunter talking shit over a deer he shot. "Who's the man now???? Parading around with all those antlers and shit. BOOM!!! And you didn't even know I was playing did you Bambi?"

 

[joe dokes]

To follow up on my point about commentators' trying to shape things they don't understand (or care to acknowledge) into pabulum they do, Shaughnessy today basically puts it in terms of the necessity for dick-swinging by the Sox.  It really sort of infantalizes Lester's side as well.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

As others have stated, per WEEI, the offer is complex and the Sox are willing to negotiate.

To me, this means that Cafardo is reporting that its 6/110-120 guaranteed. Lets say its 6/114, so 19mm AAV. But there are incentives, maybe a NTC, a mutual option for a 7th year perhaps?

What if the Sox offered 6/114 with a 3mm annual incentive if Lester reaches 200 IP, or 1mm for 150 IP and 2mm for 200 IP, a 1.5mm incentive if he makes the ASG, and a mutual option for a 7th year at 18mm with the same incentives?

Now all of a sudden youre looking at a potential 6/141mm offer, if he hits his incentives, with the potential to be a 7/164mm if the option is exercised.

This is exactly why you cant look at an offer and say did enough to come in second place because you dont know what other benefits there are.

And, as the article stipulates, the Sox are willing to negotiate. Up the guarantee, decrease the incentives but keep them there. I think its plenty to get the ball rolling and he will end up in Boston.

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

I think it's G38 just throwing some stuff up against the wall based on what he thinks is going to happen.  No other reporter, national or otherwise, is even acknowledging his "report" for lack of a better term.

 
Martha Coakley thinks it's because G38 is a traitor and is now showing his true colors.

 

[Van Everyman]

She wouldn't be wrong.

 

[RG33]

Based on the way he wrote it, sounds like conjecture to me

Yeah, sounds like it is just Curt thinking out loud on how things are evolving . . .

 

[LogansDad]

Yeah, sounds like it is just Curt thinking out loud on how things are evolving . . .

:bravo:
 
That said, if the Yankees are actually crazy enough to go 8/200, then the Sox have to let Lester go. 

 

[jacklamabe65]

:bravo:
 
That said, if the Yankees are actually crazy enough to go 8/200, then the Sox have to let Lester go. 

Yep. I dare the Yankees to do that. We would all have a good laugh.

 

[KillerBs]

I wouldn't be laughing when watching Lester return to Fenway in pinstripes. Not recommending we go to 8/200 to keep him from the Yanks, but I don't see Lester to the Yanks as good news no matter what the price.
 
Re the reports on the initial offer, I cant help but being somewhat concerned. 6/110 or 6/120 seems very much on the low end of potential opens. I see the logic in starting the bidding lower, but it is an approach which would seem to increase the risk of losing him.   

 

[rembrat]

It's going to be 6/120 or bust. The Red Sox don't get into bidding wars.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

This sounds a lot like someone trying to talk up the market to help a friend.

 
Perhaps Schilling is trying to get the market to....evolve.
 
EDIT: GODDAMMIT GREELY

 

[BlackJack]

Perhaps Schilling is trying to get the market to....evolve.
 
EDIT: GODDAMMIT GREELY

None of you have proof of this evolution nonsense, Schilling is trying to create something out of whole cloth.

 

[soxhop411]

RT @ESPNNH According to @nickcafardo Lester is believed to be seeking 6-7 year deal in the range of $23-$25 million per
 

The offer to Lester was $110 million-$120 million over six years, an average of $18.3 million-$20 million a year. Lester is believed to be seeking a six- or seven-year deal in the range of $23 million-$25 million per year
 

 
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/11/20/red-sox-make-offers-jon-lester-pablo-sandoval/OAXjymxZLUp6zLduIZBJrN/story.html?event=event25

 

[Doc Zero]

I would do 6/144 in a cocaine heartbeat.

 

[Otis Foster]

RT @ESPNNH According to @nickcafardo Lester is believed to be seeking 6-7 year deal in the range of $23-$25 million per
 
The offer to Lester was $110 million-$120 million over six years, an average of $18.3 million-$20 million a year. Lester is believed to be seeking a six- or seven-year deal in the range of $23 million-$25 million per year
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/11/20/red-sox-make-offers-jon-lester-pablo-sandoval/OAXjymxZLUp6zLduIZBJrN/story.html?event=event25

 
 
At 20 MM/a, not much of a gap, if that's accurate. Seven years is a reach, but perhaps they could tie it to a vesting formula.

 

[NDame616]

RT @ESPNNH According to @nickcafardo Lester is believed to be seeking 6-7 year deal in the range of $23-$25 million per
 
 
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/11/20/red-sox-make-offers-jon-lester-pablo-sandoval/OAXjymxZLUp6zLduIZBJrN/story.html?event=event25

 
I'm not surprised. It's really hard to believe with the Cubs, Red Sox and (to some extent, you HAVE to guess...) the Yankees in on it, that it would rise to that level. It wouldn't surprise me if Theo is offering something like 7/160 to make his huge splash this off season, and that's what Lester wants to get paid.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I would do 6/144 in a cocaine heartbeat.

 
Same here.  My fear is that they draw a line in the sand and he signs for only a little bit more than the Sox offered.  Then they go out and overpay for Shields/Hamels/Liriano/someone else in a semi-panic move while Lester ends up being a better bargain.

 

[soxhop411]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 20s20 seconds ago
A lot of team executives follow the bidding of other teams like fans, and many predicting the Cubs will be the team that signs Jon Lester.

 

[BornToRun]

6/144 with a vesting option for a 7th year. If that doesn't do it, it's probably safe to say he's gone.

 

[chrisfont9]

I think it's more likely that it was a simple "if you get a better offer we would appreciate it if you give use a chance to match or better it"

Whereupon the agent says:
 
"Hang on, I feel my cell phone vibrating...
 
Cash? Is that you? Show me the money, Brian. What? $150 million? Awesome thanks! Gotta run."
 
Cherington: "I thought you said your phone died."
 
Agent: "I guess it had a little battery life left. Let's talk."

 

[chrisfont9]

Yep. I dare the Yankees to do that. We would all have a good laugh.

Well, we're having a good laugh now at a lot of their stupidity, but it might be a while before we laugh at this one. The average length of time for their contracts to blow up in their face is about 2.3 years.

 

[Laser Show]

If 6 years and $144 million gets it done then I will be sorely disappointed if he doesn't end up back in Boston.

 

[grimshaw]

If Lester gets 6 with an option, then he's probably adding a year to Shields contract.
I'm thinking it's Lester at 6/140ish and then Shields at 5/90ish.  Unless another team gets desperate.
My cut off with Lester is that 144 because they have other options.
I don't really give a shit about PR hits.

 

[foulkehampshire]

I'm having real bad Teixeira flashbacks right now.

 
Which one? There are a couple.

 

[Doc Zero]

 
Which one? There are a couple.

 
Cashman swooping in out of nowhere.

 

[mloyko54]

I might be wrong on this, but I'd be shocked if he signs with the Cubs. I refuse to believe they'll actually spend the money until I see them do it. 

 

[Mike F]

I'm having real bad Teixeira flashbacks right now.

Bernie Williams SEZ Hi

 

[JimD]

I wouldn't be laughing when watching Lester return to Fenway in pinstripes. Not recommending we go to 8/200 to keep him from the Yanks, but I don't see Lester to the Yanks as good news no matter what the price.

 
Lester would effectively replace Kuroda, which would add 4 wins and make the Yankees a fringe wild-card team absent other moves.  Meanwhile the Red Sox will find another frontline pitcher if he doesn't come back.  Don't get me wrong - it's not what I want to see happen and it would royally suck to face a pinstriped Jon four or five times a season, but the idea that Lester alone swinging the balance of power between the teams is not likely to occur, IMO.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I guess I just think that if these reports are accurate, then all available pieces of evidence suggest that they just don't want him back that badly. Maybe this is just a negotiating tactic, but it seems like an awfully risky one to me. It is almost as though they're taking his suggestion that he might take a discount to stay in Boston as an opportunity to dare him to do so.

I should clarify that I'm not in the "Lester or Bust" camp, necessarily, but I am sort of curious to know what the plan is.

 

[TomBrunansky23]

Ah, welcome back to that old familiar feeling of dread and loathing as we all sense the Evil Empire moving the Death Star into position to smoke us yet again. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

Ah, welcome back to that old familiar feeling of dread and loathing as we all sense the Evil Empire moving the Death Star into position to smoke us yet again.

Death Stars are overrated. Better to just stand back and watch the Rebels weaken themselves through their own efforts.

 

[joe dokes]

I guess I just think that if these reports are accurate, then all available pieces of evidence suggest that they just don't want him back that badly. Maybe this is just a negotiating tactic, but it seems like an awfully risky one to me. It is almost as though they're taking his suggestion that he might take a discount to stay in Boston as an opportunity to dare him to do so.

I should clarify that I'm not in the "Lester or Bust" camp, necessarily, but I am sort of curious to know what the plan is.

 
I just dont understand this thinking.  "negotiating tactic" is something of a non-sequitur.  Its just negotiating. And the plan is to do more of it.
 
what should they do differently?
 
They could offer him 10/300, then he'd sign it without leaving the room.
 
But *any* offer they make that isn't stupid is going to b shopped around. It sounds like -- although we dont know -- that lester is not done negotiating with the Sox. In other words, he's comparing other offers to the Sox's, and then will go back to the Sox. Let's say his best offer from someone is a high, but lets call it not-necessarily-stupid 6/135 optionable into 7/150 or smething. The the Sox can decide if they want to go there.
 
If the Sox had offered 6/135 yesterday, Lester still would still shop it around. Its seems -- although we can't be sure -- that the Sox offer yesterday and whatever other code words they used, were enough to convince Lester's people that the Sox are serious.
 
Lester's people dont walk into the room with a "here's what it will take to sign us today" announcement.  And the only offers that would be accepted on the spot are ones that are so stupidly high that lesters people know that no one will go there.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

I guess I just think that if these reports are accurate, then all available pieces of evidence suggest that they just don't want him back that badly. Maybe this is just a negotiating tactic, but it seems like an awfully risky one to me. It is almost as though they're taking his suggestion that he might take a discount to stay in Boston as an opportunity to dare him to do so.

I should clarify that I'm not in the "Lester or Bust" camp, necessarily, but I am sort of curious to know what the plan is.

 
Or maybe they just have a budget. I'm sure they want him back, but if that means they have to give him $150m for that to happen, I can't blame them for holding fast. And I think they're right, but I'm admittedly biased, as I think all those $150m+ contracts for pitchers are terrible contracts (and yeah, "it's not my money" and they have lots of it - but you still have a budget).
 
What I'm wondering, like you, is 1) what Plan B is. What are we looking at here (I actually happen to think they need 3 pitchers, not 2 and 2)Will the Sox ever get a top-end free agent again, because $150m+ is now the market rate for those, whether they (or I) like it or not.  

 

[TomRicardo]

 
Lester would effectively replace Kuroda, which would add 4 wins and make the Yankees a fringe wild-card team absent other moves.  Meanwhile the Red Sox will find another frontline pitcher if he doesn't come back.  Don't get me wrong - it's not what I want to see happen and it would royally suck to face a pinstriped Jon four or five times a season, but the idea that Lester alone swinging the balance of power between the teams is not likely to occur, IMO.

 
Adding Lester does not make the Yankees a fringe wild card team.   First off Kuroda was their pitching leader at 3.5 fWAR so unless you are suggesting Lester is going to be about 1.5 wins then his career high (uck wins to fWAR but for the sake of argument).
 
The Yankees are bad.  Their best hope is two pitchers with bad injuries last year.  Their lineup is horrendously bad as in worse than the Red Sox last year bad.  They have already spent 180 million and they don't have a left side of the infield or a RF who can play every day.
 
edit - I am not sure who is in a worse position, the Yankees or the Phillies.  The Yankees do have two young stud pitchers albeit with huge red flags but the Phillies still have some tradeable assets.  If Amaro was a semi valid GM he could start a real rebuild.

 

[DJnVa]

Ah, welcome back to that old familiar feeling of dread and loathing as we all sense the Evil Empire moving the Death Star into position to smoke us yet again. 

 

 

[snowmanny]

If 6 years and $144 million gets it done then I will be sorely disappointed if he doesn't end up back in Boston.

 
That's the amount Scherzer was offered in the spring that Lester said he would take, right?
 
Right.

 

[snowmanny]

 
Adding Lester does not make the Yankees a fringe wild card team.   First off Kuroda was their pitching leader at 3.5 fWAR so unless you are suggesting Lester is going to be about 1.5 wins then his career high (uck wins to fWAR but for the sake of argument).
 
The Yankees are bad.  Their best hope is two pitchers with bad injuries last year.  Their lineup is horrendously bad as in worse than the Red Sox last year bad.  They have already spent 180 million and they don't have a left side of the infield or a RF who can play every day.
 
edit - I am not sure who is in a worse position, the Yankees or the Phillies.  The Yankees do have two young stud pitchers albeit with huge red flags but the Phillies still have some tradeable assets.  If Amaro was a semi valid GM he could start a real rebuild.

And yet, as of this moment, the Red Sox are not better.  Let's not pretend it's the Yankees who have to catch up or that they have zero means to improve.

 

[rembrat]

 
Same here.  My fear is that they draw a line in the sand and he signs for only a little bit more than the Sox offered.  Then they go out and overpay for Shields/Hamels/Liriano/someone else in a semi-panic move while Lester ends up being a better bargain.

 
Eh, panicking isn't really this organization's M.O. They do however draw lines in the sand.
 
Have we heard if Mystery Team is interested?

 

[TomRicardo]

And yet, as of this moment, the Red Sox are not better.  Let's not pretend it's the Yankees who have to catch up or that they have zero means to improve.

 
I would pick the Red Sox as presently built (with 52 OFs) 100x times over than the Yankees.
 
People in their second and third year in MLB are far more likely to improve than 31+ YOs.  Yankees have better starting pitching with Pineda and Tanaka however they have no positional depth whatsoever.  

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

As a Rhode Islander, the last time Curt started talking out his ass about million dollar deals it cost me $500.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I might be wrong on this, but I'd be shocked if he signs with the Cubs. I refuse to believe they'll actually spend the money until I see them do it. 

 
Based on what? The Cubs are not a cheap team, historically, and under Theo they have been implementing a very specific plan to reset the roster. The lack of a high payroll the last few years was a means to an end, not a new long term philosophy. They're going to spend, and they are absolutely players for Lester.

 

[Ed Hillel]

There's some crazy stuff in this thread, but the craziest has to be that there appear to be people here that still fear the Yankees in any capacity.

 

[doc]

There's some crazy stuff in this thread, but the craziest has to be that there appear to be people here that still fear the Yankees in any capacity.

Any Red Sox fan who does not fear the Yankees on some level is deluding themselves.  They will always be there lurking in the background waiting to resurrect themselves, often at our expense and dismay.

 

[rembrat]

Any Red Sox fan who does not fear the Yankees on some level is deluding themselves.  They will always be there lurking in the background waiting to resurrect themselves, often at our expense and dismay.

 
Not really. The game has changed and if your minor leagues isn't producing anything of quality you aren't going to be very good save for a lucky year.

 

[KillerBs]

I don't fear the Yankees, but would be nauseated at the sight of Lester in pin stripes. The whole premise of being happy he signed with the Yanks is based on there being some payroll limits in the Bronx. But his signing would put the lie to that (again).    

 

[BlackJack]

Have we heard if Mystery Team is interested?

I wouldn't worry about them, they never sign anyone. Hell I can't even remember the last time Mystery Team was even in the playoff hunt at any point in the season.

 

[TomRicardo]

Any Red Sox fan who does not fear the Yankees on some level is deluding themselves.  They will always be there lurking in the background waiting to resurrect themselves, often at our expense and dismay.

 
They would be better off spending 150 million dollars on research on a time machine than signing Lester.

 

[EvilEmpire]

They would be better off spending 150 million dollars on research on a time machine than signing Lester.

More like 150 million on Moncada.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Adding Lester does not make the Yankees a fringe wild card team.   First off Kuroda was their pitching leader at 3.5 fWAR so unless you are suggesting Lester is going to be about 1.5 wins then his career high (uck wins to fWAR but for the sake of argument).
 
The Yankees are bad.  Their best hope is two pitchers with bad injuries last year.  Their lineup is horrendously bad as in worse than the Red Sox last year bad.  They have already spent 180 million and they don't have a left side of the infield or a RF who can play every day.
 
edit - I am not sure who is in a worse position, the Yankees or the Phillies.  The Yankees do have two young stud pitchers albeit with huge red flags but the Phillies still have some tradeable assets.  If Amaro was a semi valid GM he could start a real rebuild.

 
I don't think it would take very long at all for Philly to become pretty darned good again.  But then again….Amaro.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Any Red Sox fan who does not fear the Yankees on some level is deluding themselves.  They will always be there lurking in the background waiting to resurrect themselves, often at our expense and dismay.

 
I am not deluding myself. The Yankees are just another baseball team right now, and have been for a while. They've spent a decade plus on mostly terrible large contracts and done very little building from the ground up in their farm system. More teams are starting to spend now and, while the Yankees can still outspend anyone, Free Agents now have more options to choose from when it comes to making it rich in Major League Baseball. The whole 1918 thing is gone, too, so while the Yankees still reserve a very special place in the ladder of Hell, the time spent fearing them more than a handful or more of other franchises has passed.
 
I don't want to see Lester in pinstripes either, but there's plenty of blame in this case to lay on our own organization, should it happen. And if it does, there's a decent chance it will be another albatross that haunts the team down the line.