The premature re-signing Lester thread

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67WasBest

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doc said:
Any Red Sox fan who does not fear the Yankees on some level is deluding themselves.  They will always be there lurking in the background waiting to resurrect themselves, often at our expense and dismay.
Not so much in the new world of baseball.  Although their crop of international signings is going a long way to giving them some young trade chips and when those mature, they will be dangerous again.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Snoop Soxy Dogg said:
 
Or maybe they just have a budget. I'm sure they want him back, but if that means they have to give him $150m for that to happen, I can't blame them for holding fast. And I think they're right, but I'm admittedly biased, as I think all those $150m+ contracts for pitchers are terrible contracts (and yeah, "it's not my money" and they have lots of it - but you still have a budget).
 
What I'm wondering, like you, is 1) what Plan B is. What are we looking at here (I actually happen to think they need 3 pitchers, not 2 and 2)Will the Sox ever get a top-end free agent again, because $150m+ is now the market rate for those, whether they (or I) like it or not.  
My post may not have read this way, but I think we're actually in total agreement - I am sure their reasoning for proceeding this way is defensible. Like I said, I don't think it's doom if they don't bring back Lester specifically. If they're philosophically opposed to giving out a deal like that, then I don't really begrudge them that viewpoint. But yes, your second paragraph is dead-on. If they don't want to pay free-agency rates, then how do they intend to upgrade the rotation? Keep trading for a new pre-FA starter every two or three years in hopes that one of them will eventually take a significant discount?
 

joe dokes

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Danny_Darwin said:
My post may not have read this way, but I think we're actually in total agreement - I am sure their reasoning for proceeding this way is defensible. Like I said, I don't think it's doom if they don't bring back Lester specifically. If they're philosophically opposed to giving out a deal like that, then I don't really begrudge them that viewpoint. But yes, your second paragraph is dead-on. If they don't want to pay free-agency rates, then how do they intend to upgrade the rotation? Keep trading for a new pre-FA starter every two or three years in hopes that one of them will eventually take a significant discount?
 
Not winning the bidding is not "not want[ing] to pay free agency rates." 
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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joe dokes said:
 
Not winning the bidding is not "not want[ing] to pay free agency rates." 
 
Isn't it? Aren't free agency rates primarily determined by the marketplace, ergo, the highest bidder (or some average thereof)? I suppose they may "want", and not place the highest bid, which one may argue is "not wanting badly enough".
 

grimshaw

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I don't believe the Yankees would sign Lester to a stupid contract.  The new regime is somewhat more sensible and the Georgie Porgie era contracts (pre 2010) are still in force.  Teixeira, CC (2008), A-Rod were all done over that time.  Jeter was tied up as well through his decline.
This current regime has signed Kuroda a few times, traded for Pineda, made a big splash for Tanaka, traded for McCarthy, and developed the pen post Rivera.  None of those were flops.  We don't know what they have in plan for this off-season but they made some lemonade last year with what they had.
 
Trading for Headley and Prado were shrewd moves.  The farm system is slowly improving from bottom 5 to bottom 10.
 
We'll see about Ellsbury and his underwhelming first season and McCann.  Beltre was DOA unexpectedly.
 
If they do sign Lester or Scherzer, then yes . ..  same old Yanks.  But they are slowly but surely managing the team more wisely while they try and drop a massive dump after dump.
 
*Goes to ram finger down throat*
 

TomRicardo

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
You are correct that adding Lester only doesn't make them a big contender, but what I don't get is why you think they would stop there. They tend to binge more than they do parse the FA market. Lester/Headley/Ramirez. Resign Robertson, maybe add a 4th OF to help out with RF. It's not like they haven't done this before. Their MO is to ignore their true status and act impetuously. It's not like they were in better shape last year when they signed Beltran/Ellsbury/McCann. You make a valid/arguable point about their status as a contender, but assuming they will act like most other teams in their position would is, i think, ignoring a lot. 
 
Because what you wrote right there makes them 260+ million dollar team that I am not even sure can win the wild card.  The Yankees aren't going to spend around 300 million dollars on payroll for a team that will draw less than they did last year.  Not only does that not give them a team that New York will watch, it just continues on the future of having overpriced players you can't get rid of.  The Yankees don't want their highest payroll for a team that won't be able to draw 40,000 a game.
 
Edit - The Yankees barely got 40K a game the last two years pimping the shit out of Jeter and Rivera.  People in New York really don't care about this team.  Their only connection to World Series Team is Sabathia, Teixeira, and ARod aka their massive burdensome contracts everyone wishes would go away (Gardner was on the bench similar to Youkilis in 2004 or less so Ellsbury in 2007)
 

joe dokes

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joe dokes said:
 
Not winning the bidding is not "not want[ing] to pay free agency rates."
Isn't it? Aren't free agency rates primarily determined by the marketplace, ergo, the highest bidder (or some average thereof)? I suppose they may "want", and not place the highest bid, which one may argue is "not wanting badly enough".
 
No, it isn't.  This isn't a sealed bid process like the Selectman deciding whose gonna pave main street. at some point the player stops shopping and signs a deal. Its not  a question of "not wanting badly enough." at least not in this case. Tampa bay doesn't want to play.
 

grimshaw

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glennhoffmania said:
Wait so the current regime didn't sign Teixeira, Sabathia, and ARod?
I was going George Steinbrenner era with Cashman vs. when Cashman has had the keys by himself since 2011.
A-Rod was 2007, Teix and Sabathia were 2009
 

glennhoffmania

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grimshaw said:
I was going George Steinbrenner era with Cashman vs. when Cashman has had the keys by himself since 2011.
A-Rod was 2007, Teix and Sabathia were 2009
 
I know what you were going with.  I'm questioning the accuracy of the facts on which you're relying and your understanding of who was and is the decision maker in the Yankees' front office.
 

TomRicardo

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glennhoffmania said:
Wait so the current regime didn't sign Teixeira, Sabathia, and ARod?
 
Sure and that is working charmingly now!
 
The real question is if the Yankees would sign those contracts knowing they would win one World Series then be left where they are now.
 

Doctor G

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The Yankees went into this offseason with the same holes in the roster as the Red Sox at 3rd and SP and closer. They are competing for the same players whether they admit it or not. The players agents know this and will do their due diligence to keep them informed  and to do so discreetly. 
I would not be shocked to see them sign Panda and Lester and Miller.
They have won a lot more winters than championships since free agency began.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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joe dokes said:
No, it isn't.  This isn't a sealed bid process like the Selectman deciding whose gonna pave main street. at some point the player stops shopping and signs a deal. Its not  a question of "not wanting badly enough." at least not in this case. Tampa bay doesn't want to play.
 
Sorry, I don't quite understand what you're saying. Maybe we're getting hung up on semantics. Nobody said anything about a sealed bid process. The larger point made was that free agency rates are usually determined by the market place, and that marketplace demand tends to drive up those rates. Whichever team is willing to pay more (aka, "wants it more") usually gets the player (and yes, I understand players may take less to to a team). Tampa Bay not wanting to play is part of the demand process; the Cubs, Toronto and others do want to play, therefore they drive up the price. Anyway, what I'm saying here is a blinding glimpse of the obvious, so I think we may not be talking about quite the same thing. 
 

grimshaw

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glennhoffmania said:
 
I know what you were going with.  I'm questioning the accuracy of the facts on which you're relying and your understanding of who was and is the decision maker in the Yankees' front office.
Of course I don't, but A-Rod's deal was negotiated on an ownership level - both in 2004 when George gloated publicly about it and when a new deal was signed.
Have they made a franchise crippling signing since 2010?
 

chrisfont9

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There's some crazy stuff in this thread, but the craziest has to be that there appear to be people here that still fear the Yankees in any capacity.
Yeah, I wouldn't worry about a team with unlimited spending capacity. When has money ever factored into winning?
 
 
Edit: I get the point, they have a terribly constructed roster now, but things can change.
 

glennhoffmania

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grimshaw said:
Of course I don't, but A-Rod's deal was negotiated on an ownership level - both in 2004 when George gloated publicly about it and when a new deal was signed.
Have they made a franchise crippling signing since 2010?
 
My Yankee fan friends can jump in and correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that by 2007 Hank and Hal were running the show.  Hank was the main guy behind bringing ARod back.  George certainly wasn't running the team when they signed CC, Teixeira and AJ.  And Hank/Hal have clearly made decisions since then that Cashman didn't agree with.  So the same guys who made these decisions are running the day to day operations today.  Nothing has really changed in about 7 years.
 

grimshaw

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glennhoffmania said:
 
My Yankee fan friends can jump in and correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that by 2007 Hank and Hal were running the show.  Hank was the main guy behind bringing ARod back.  George certainly wasn't running the team when they signed CC, Teixeira and AJ.  And Hank/Hal have clearly made decisions since then that Cashman didn't agree with.  So the same guys who made these decisions are running the day to day operations today.  Nothing has really changed in about 7 years.
I'll give you that they were responsible for renegotiating A-Rods deal. 
 
The rest is really just my opinion about Cashman having much more control over free agent signings and not having to answer to the Steinbreinners much.  After A-Rod's deal was re-done, there was speculation Cashman wouldn't be back following the 2008 season because of his lack of authority, but he has since signed two three year contracts. and I don't recall anything public disagreements with free agent signings between GM and CEO akin to the Carl Crawford situation.
Anyhow - I won't derail further.
 

glennhoffmania

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said he did not want to sign Rafael Soriano because he didn't feel paying closer money to the team's setup man made sense. And, in the end, Cashman said he did not participate in negotiations with Soriano's agent, Scott Boras.
 
"I didn't recommend [the deal]," Cashman said after the team officially introduced Soriano as its eighth-inning man in front of closer Mariano Rivera.
 
Cashman's statements were made after the formal introduction and not on the dais directly in front of Soriano.
 
Cashman said his feelings have nothing to do with Soriano himself. The 31-year-old is a fine reliever, Cashman said, but as he tries to pare down the Yankees' $200 million payroll he would have preferred a more patient approach. The executives above Cashman disagreed.
 
The Yankees hierarchy -- owners Hal and Hank Steinbrenner, along with team president Randy Levine -- wanted to improve the team this offseason.
 
 
Link
 
I'll move on now.
 

Sampo Gida

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glennhoffmania said:
 
My Yankee fan friends can jump in and correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure that by 2007 Hank and Hal were running the show.  Hank was the main guy behind bringing ARod back.  George certainly wasn't running the team when they signed CC, Teixeira and AJ.  And Hank/Hal have clearly made decisions since then that Cashman didn't agree with.  So the same guys who made these decisions are running the day to day operations today.  Nothing has really changed in about 7 years.
 
George had not been mircomanaging the team for years by the time 2007 came around.  Team president Randy Levine and chief operating officer Lonn Trost ran the business side and  Brian Cashman called the shots on the baseball side (although big contracts involved both sides).  George was said to be involved on the big decisions.  Hal wanted to be the next Boss and likely had considerable authority, he was elected Chairman of the Board of Yankees Global Enterprises at the end of the 2007 season, but any decisions he was involved in were surely made with his fathers approval in mind.  MLB approved Hal to take day to day control of the Yankees at the end of the 2008 season.   It was a complex situation.  Once George died, or was totally out of it Hal could assert his authority w/o worrying about Geroges approval.  It was probably after the 2009 season or his fathers death in 2010 that the Budget Hotel guy started turning the Yankees into a Budget Baseball team since George was out of the picture by then.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Too much MFY discussion here. A good question was raised above re what Plan B might be. I think they need to draw a reasonable line with Lester, too. I think they only go to 7 years if it's a team option or low player option. I don't think they get to $25m per. And if that means they don't get Lester, then they could easily cash in Cespedes and their mL surplus prospects for 2 good trade candidates. Iwakuma and Ross would be gettable.
 

Manramsclan

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RedOctober3829 said:
@DOBrienAJC: #Braves didn't make an offer during their meeting with Jon Lester toda.
 
 
Which could mean they have gathered the information necessary to make a formal offer.
 

Rough Carrigan

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Manramsclan said:
 
 
Which could mean they have gathered the information necessary to make a formal offer.
Possible.  But I have a hard time seeing Liberty Media ponying up the dough to entice Lester to go there.  I think the Braves have a payroll around $95-100 million.  They're going to pay a quarter of their payroll to one starting pitcher? 
 

TomBrunansky23

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I dunno about T.O.  Anthopoulos was on MLB radio last evening stating that with the Martin signing they were pretty much done unless something that made sense that fell into their lap and could fit within the budget.  Offseason puffery and GM-speak no doubt but I'm more inclined to accept them at their word than MFY.
 
And it's a joke that Toronto has budget restrictions given that the media conglomerate that owns them has virtually unlimited resources and just dropped 5 bill on the NHL rights up north.
 
And yes, count me among the tin foil hat crowd that sees the Yankee threat behind everything.  If the last 7-10 years have taught us anything there is absolutely no limit to what they will spend, waste or squander.
 

SoxFanForsyth

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https://twitter.com/marino_pepen/status/536163918742552578

Translation (per Google translate): Marino_Pepen: WARNING: #RedSox did Jon Lester initial offer of 120 MM for 6 years, but apparently it is cut to the aspirations of the pitcher.

I have no idea what 'it is cut to the aspirations of the pitcher' means.
 

SoxFanForsyth

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Ok so based in the responses to that tweet it sounds like Pepen is saying its a good offer but Lester wants 7 years
 

SoxFanForsyth

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OzSox said:
'Corta' means short in this case (i.e. Lester wants 7+ years).
So he is saying they are short from his wants essentially. Gotcha. Thanks for the translation, I can only go off of what Google says
 

Tyrone Biggums

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SoxFanForsyth said:
Yanks and Cards. Cards are to be watched closely
I would be more concerned about Miami than the Cards. I think he's coming back so it's a moot point. He's going to get 6 with an option from Boston once it's all said and done
 

SoxFanForsyth

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Tyrone Biggums said:
I would be more concerned about Miami than the Cards. I think he's coming back so it's a moot point. He's going to get 6 with an option from Boston once it's all said and done
I agree, think he's coming back.

I'm just saying, St Louis is the NL Boston. A great baseball town with a winning tradition. And Lackey, Lesters buddy, is there, even if its just for a year. I see them ahead of the Cubs in terms of competition if Lester's comments about comfort over money are to be believed (which I think they are).

I think there are two things that the Sox have that no other team has.

1. A huge amount of comfort for both he and his family in the area.

2. John Farrell, and I don't think you can overstate this. It's no coincidence that when Farrell returned, Lester returned to form. That's a huge pull for the Sox.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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OzSox said:
'Corta' means short in this case (i.e. Lester wants 7+ years).
 
I don't know Spanish, but I'm seeing online translators that say "corta" can mean "small, meager, scanty, skimpy" as well as "short." Are we sure the tweet couldn't mean the Sox are short in dollars rather than years?
 
NM, should have read the tweet thread first. He clearly means years.
 

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I think the team has been misreading Lester for a long time.  This is a guy who wanted to stay in Boston - for the rest of his career.  He seemed to want Pedroia-like security, and offering him a 4 year deal didn't accomplish that basic goal, and wouldn't have even at a high AAV.  I think when Jon talked about a discount, it was in AAV - he was prioritizing security and stability over $$$ (to a point, obviously).
 
I still think this might be true - that Lester would like this to be his last deal.  So do something like 6/$126 with two player options for $15M each that kick in if he throws 150 innings in the prior year (and does not end the year on the DL). 
 

seantoo

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SoxFanForsyth said:
I agree, think he's coming back.

I'm just saying, St Louis is the NL Boston. A great baseball town with a winning tradition. And Lackey, Lesters buddy, is there, even if its just for a year. I see them ahead of the Cubs in terms of competition if Lester's comments about comfort over money are to be believed (which I think they are).

I think there are two things that the Sox have that no other team has.

1. A huge amount of comfort for both he and his family in the area.

2. John Farrell, and I don't think you can overstate this. It's no coincidence that when Farrell returned, Lester returned to form. That's a huge pull for the Sox.
What you said and if the reported offer is correct, 6 years at $120 Million, you have to feel confident that he's back.
 

NDame616

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seantoo said:
What you said and if the reported offer is correct, 6 years at $120 Million, you have to feel confident that he's back.
 
You think 6/$120M gets it done? I think Theo offers around 6/$150 plus attainable options.
 
I may be in the minority, but I don't think 6/$120M is close to enough to bring him back. 
 

joe dokes

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NDame616 said:
 
You think 6/$120M gets it done? I think Theo offers around 6/$150 plus attainable options.
 
I may be in the minority, but I don't think 6/$120M is close to enough to bring him back. 
 
Probably not ending at 6/120 (especially if that was the first offer made by anyone. But STARTING at 6/120 with the clear understanding that there's more there, is plenty enough.   It's a negotiation.
 

NDame616

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joe dokes said:
 
Probably not ending at 6/120 (especially if that was the first offer made by anyone. But STARTING at 6/120 with the clear understanding that there's more there, is plenty enough.   It's a negotiation.
 
How do we know that was their starting offer and there is a "clear understanding that there's more"? Maybe I missed it, but how do we know that the Red Sox are willing to go north of $150M (which is what I think it'll be)?
 
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