Ingram or John Collins, from two teams that underperformed this season, would be the home run acquisitions.
Picks/swaps galore would be a worthy cost
The Second War on Theis: Celtics trade for Daniel Theis
- Thread starter Cellar-Door
- Start date
Picks/swaps galore would be a worthy cost
That's the one I was eying as well.
Feels like the "stars" most available right now are:
Lillard- not sure we want that contract, or defense, but also I assume some team will empty the whole vault of their assets for him and I don't think Brad would.
LaVine- a FA, but I bet he goes back to CHI, they are the #1 seed he's the #2 guy there, I think he's happy to stay.
Ayton- a FA, I think he goes back to PHO, but also, not sure he fits this team, even 2 bigs not sure he can play the Horford perimeter role.
Beal- discussed a bunch, Tatum's friend, but the fit is... iffy? Also he had a terrible year this season and a major injury, his contract has real ugly potential
"Stars" who might become available quickly:
Gobert- not a fit here, but that pairing looks to be approaching a breakup
Mitchell- less likely, I think UTA moves Gobert for a lesser return, not a perfect fit here and I think there would be suitors with more to offer.
Zion- poor fit.
Randle- I'm not a fan, but moving to a lesser offensive role might actually be good for him.
Collins- A nice fit, not sure ATL is looking for picks in a move for him though (probably would want Smart).
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Then you have all the Sub-stars.... Barnes (why? Al is better), Wood (has issues but he's a talent), Grant (he wouldn't be happy with his role), Turner (fit issues), Bamba?,
Other than shooting Grant doesn't give you a fraction of what Horford is doing. Horford is being seriously undervalued by this board.
Yeah, Al Horford is a miles better defender than Grant, he's also an excellent facilitator you can run offense through, Grant is not a facilitator or passer at all, Horford manages to turn it over less despite this, and he's a much better rebounder.
Shooting is literally the only thing Grant does better than Al.
I expect Theis to be an insurance placeholder to allow us to move Horford should a deal emerge. If not, he’s an easily movable expiring deal which providing big depth for the remainder of this year. I see you used the often overused “just get a vet min backup big”……..these guys rarely exist. There aren’t many 7-foot humans on this planet capable of playing NBA rotation minutes. It’s supply and demand that has always allowed bigs who are capable of competing in the NBA to get paid more than their raw numbers indicate they should.
Everyone on the Board loves Al Horford, there isn't a soul in the Cellar that buys into the Merloni Average Al crap.
That being said, Al Horford is the fifth-best player on the starting group, you don't pay a 36yr old Center $28.5MM for that role next season.
I doubt many teams are lining up around the corner to hand over "great assets" for Al Horford. He was a salary dump last summer and his #s are declining. Brad will have to staple assets onto Horford to get a good player.
Jeez these are like the Kemba discussions last season, where people told me how fukn important Kemba's scoring was to the Celtics' success
We're talking about next season, right?
Is there any chance Grant will continue to improve and Al will continue to decline?
Shooting matters a lot when this team is the 20th ranked 3pt shooting team. Floor spacing is important if the Celtics want to take a step forward. The team's offense is ranked 16th in ppg, it's where this team can improve most. The adv metrics with Grant playing with the best 4 is excellent so far, I don't expect the Celtics to blow up their cap to pay Al Horford.
I'm not saying they'll keep Al, I doubt they will, but Grant Williams is and will continue to be a significant downgrade. He's a specialist, and he can't do a lot of the things that Horford is asked to do that are very important. My guess is that Grant will have the same role next year and they will be looking to add an Al replacement who can do at least some of what he does.
Edit- also worth noting... Grant has improved his 3pt shooting, and he's taken a role where all he does in shoot 3s, so his TOV are down, but he's not improved basically anywhere else offensively or on the boards (if anything he's worse). His defense is better, but he has some physical limitations even at the 4 that mean you can't play him against some bigs, and certainly can't use him like Al to guard the biggest guy and let TL roam, which is a key to the defense.
Yea they will probably add a 4/sWing for Horford, hence the Collins, Woods, Grant, Barnes pipe dream/suggestions...
I'm just not excited about vacuum analysis: Horford > Grant comes with zero context, it's much more nuanced than that.
I think it's fine to say. Grant is a guy who has a very specialized role, one that is almost always a bench player. Al Horford is overpaid, but he's also a well rounded quality starter in the NBA.
They’ve tried this during the winning streak and have had some good results. Here’s an example of a possession that starts with Grant guarding Jokić, against whom he’s had past success.
View: https://twitter.com/aidan_maher17/status/1492308598000607238
The problem with Grant would be that he pretty clearly wants to be a top 2 option on a team and has a habit of “massaging the ball” (to use a Scal term). I dont love the fit there.
If Christian Wood buys in and has the right attitude, like he did last year, I think he’s a pretty perfect fit. But it does seem like there’s a lot of smoke around how professional he is.
I like Barnes as a player, you just never know what it will be like dealing with Sacramento.
John Collins also seems like he’s the archetype of the player we would want but, again, I question if he’d like to come here and be the 3rd option. Isn’t the reason he wants out of Atlanta that he doesn’t get the ball enough?
Ingram I think could potentially be a very good fit but I see a few issues there.
1. Is New Orleans really rebuilding? If Griffin gets fired this off-season then maybe…if not, I don’t think they are
2. He’s a young player still. Would he be interested coming in and being a 2nd or 3rd option?
3. The key to unlocking this great defense recently has been playing Rob in the corner and allowing him to roam…that means that in this hypothetical trade of Horford the return needs to he someone that can legitimately guard centers and be able to switch. Ingram has stepped it up a bunch defensively but he’s still a string bean. I just don’t think there’s anyway that he can consistently guard bigs over a season.
EDIT:
After a quick look at the standings and possible roster fits, the best that I could come up with would be a 3 way trade with the Hawks/Pacers/Celtics.
Pacers trade Malcolm Brogdon and receive picks, Horford and a young player or two
Hawks trade John Collins and get back Brogdon and maybe a pick
Celtics trade Horford and picks and get back Collins
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As much as I love LaVine as a player, I'd need to buy new pants if we moved Al plus picks for Ingram. Neither is a great defensive player, but Ingram could be. Both are rock stars offensively.
I'd order them Ingram, LaVine, Collins. Send the pick bonanza and Al. Most of the other people being discussed would be more of the "pick Friday lunch menu" variety, not the "all the picks" variety. Frankly the dropoff from Ingram/LaVine to Collins is non trivial as well, but he would slot in well as "tall guy #2" with less adjustment than the other two guys.
I'd order them Ingram, LaVine, Collins. Send the pick bonanza and Al. Most of the other people being discussed would be more of the "pick Friday lunch menu" variety, not the "all the picks" variety. Frankly the dropoff from Ingram/LaVine to Collins is non trivial as well, but he would slot in well as "tall guy #2" with less adjustment than the other two guys.
I'm sure we'll do a lot of fake trade brain damage this summer
Not many FA's and a CAP jump should lead to player movement/trades this summer. Brad isn't afraid to make big trades or move draft picks.
Jeremi Grant doesn't terribly excite me either. He's talked about being the #1 option on bad teams while getting a big contract - not what the C's should be looking for.
John Collins plays with so many other shooters: Trae!, Hunter, Bog, Huerter, Gallinari, Cam when he was there, Lou. It has to be frustrating when he's pretty far down the list in FGA/36. Also, love his contract.
Brogdon, an Atlanta native, would probably have the Hawks interested.
I would like to see Grant Williams get more shots up, from three, and near the basket (73% at the rim, 58% 3-10 feet). There could be some decent growth to his offense, now that he’s one of the most accurate shooters from three in the league. Get Grant to an efficient 13 ppg, and he could start at the four in the future, with another solid bench piece or two being acquired with AL’s salary slot, if a third star isn’t available.
Or maybe AL keeps on keeping on, and the team makes a run at a title this year and next. This well spaces, share and move the ball offense has been working for AL, with him going 22-30 inside the arc, and 12-36 from three, this first month this season he hit the .333% mark. He’s getting a lot of wide open threes, so hopefully he will get back into the .360+ percent range.
Or maybe AL keeps on keeping on, and the team makes a run at a title this year and next. This well spaces, share and move the ball offense has been working for AL, with him going 22-30 inside the arc, and 12-36 from three, this first month this season he hit the .333% mark. He’s getting a lot of wide open threes, so hopefully he will get back into the .360+ percent range.
Rob & Grant FGA/36 has to increase (they rank near the bottom on the C's). The JAYs are getting better at moving the ball, which will help make the offense more efficient.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022.html
Ingram and LaVine are way better offensively, but Collins is significantly cheaper ($6M less than Ingram, probably more than LaVine), which matters for filling out other positions. His fit with Brown/Tatum/Rob on both ends is better too imo.
My evaluation from this year is that a Jaylords+Smart team is good enough that you can prioritize fit and roster construction over pure talent accumulation.
I think the Ingram thing is a pipe dream. The Pelicans are playing better now and their GM wants to keep his job. Why in the world would he trade Ingram in a “blow it up” package?
Agreed on the Collins portion, but how good is Collins actually? I don’t watch the Hawks (like at all) and I know he has the reputation of being a good player but in Seth Partnows recent player tiers, he was in the exact same tier as Horford. Is that worth cashing in all of your chips on?
Yes JC is worth it. Age (24) /contract timeline fit perfectly. Collins is offensively efficient and can play off-ball. I like the bigger line-ups defensively that IME has implemented. He'd be a better version of Al over the next 3 seasons.
Would the Hawks move him? They have some issues, might shake it up, probably not but definitely worth kicking the tires on. I want Brad cashing in all draft capital this offseason. We're getting a glimpse of what Tatum's floor will be when he is 26-30yr. We want developed players starting and ring chasers on the bench. I love me some Al Horford, and IME got a ton out of him this season but they shouldn't risk the Father Time factor (unless Al extends on something absurdly friendly)
1. They wouldn't be cashing in all the chips.
2. If the Celtics could make a magical deal where they could get this year's Al Horford level of performance, but have him be 29 instead of 35, they'd pay assets for that.
3. Collins is likely to improve further, and also to fit really well, which improves performance on its own.
Ok, so what would they be trading to get Collins?
The Celtics assets right now are Horford (and his contract) and 3 future 1sts. No way ATLs trading Collins for Horford straight up. Is 1 1st rounder enough?
It really comes down to whether there's a problem between Collins and Trae or someone else important. There were rumors of that. If everyone loves Collins and he loves them, then the price is probably too high.
I'd assume Horford and a couple firsts, maybe a swap far out.
I'm not saying Collins would be free, but the Celtics would be giving up most likely the 2023 pick (would happen post-draft so no Stepien) and some stuff further out Atlanta could dream on. That doesn't particularly hamstring the team.
The nice thing about acquiring a guy below star level who you think is a good fit is that you can make decent offers without emptying all your chambers.
Tough part with Collins is that he may be a downgrade from this year’s Horford, but we are basically looking at that no matter what. If the Celtics can make a “stop loss” play, it’s probably worth it. I don’t think there’s another big, short of truly non-available guys, that can fill Horford’s shoes here.
The Ingram thing would largely depend on Zion and probably wouldn't happen until after next season at the earliest anyway. He'd have 2 years left. More likely, he'd be traded after the 23/24 season when CJ is up for FA. Ingram wouldn't even really have to demand a trade at that point. It's trade him or lose him at the end of the season for nothing.
Collins could happen as soon as this offseason, but I'm not sure the C's really have the pieces to get it done. The asking price was rumored to be a decent 1st rounder and a starter.
I'm not sure Collins is really a 3rd star but he looks like a good fit with the Jays and TL. I think any deal for him would involve Marcus Smart so it would require acquiring a PG. John Collins is also not nearly the passer Horford is, though if JT and JB continue to progress, that should be less of an issue. Still, it's nice to have 5 guys who can pass the ball on the court. I also worry about JC getting enough touches. While he's definitely a threat from 3, he's not a huge volume guy. He relies on others to get him the ball. I fear he ends up only scoring like 12 or 13 points a night on the Celtics. With that said, he's put up 17 PPG only averaging 12.1 FGA/G the last 2 seasons on 30.0 mpg. He also plays along side Capela so TL shouldn't be an issue. This year Al is at 8.6 and Smart is at 10. I'd assume both of those guys would be gone if JC is on board.
Since JC would be replacing Horford, the last 2 seasons. JC listed first.
Average Shot Distance: 11.4 to 15.4 feet
% of FGA that were 3s: 27.1% to 45.1%
% of FGA that were dunks: 14.6% (184) vs 4.5% (35)
% of FGA that were corner 3s: 28.4% (38.5% 3FG%) vs 21.2% (34.1%)
0-3ft: 75.1% FG% vs 72.2%
3'-10': 45.1% vs 46.7%
10'-16': 49.7% vs 50.7% (wow to both)
16'-3: 48.1% vs 41.1%
3pt: 38.3% vs 33.7%
% of FG assisted: 75.4%/98.6% (2pt/3pt) vs 63.7%/95.4%.
While I'm sure playing with Trae Young has hurt Collins a bit, Collins isn't going to revert back to a 20/10 player with the C's. Something I found interesting that's kind or related but unrelated: FGA/36: Young 21.1, Tatum 20.9. 3PA/36: Young 8.0, Tatum 8.5.
All things equal, I'd heavily prefer Ingram over Collins. They aren't. I wouldn't wait around 2 years hoping for Ingram to become available if I could acquire JC for a reasonable price this offseason, trade/dump Al and acquire a PG to start or back up White.
Ingram has a lot (less lately) of distractors on the board but I think pretty much everyone agrees he's in the group with Jaylen Brown. He is unequivocally a 3rd star. I think his defense would be considerably better next to Tatum/TL and being able to spend less energy on offense. Dude is 6'8 with a 7'3 wingspan and 9'1 standing reach. He's in between Jaylen Brown and TL. (6'7/7'0/8.8'5 and 6'8/7'6/9'4). He's also at a career high 28.0% assist % and it's been climbing as the season has progressed.
JC is at 6'9, 6'11, 8'10.5.
Out of all "realistic" targets, Ingram or LaVine are the 2 prizes. Depending on what people consider realistic targets.
I asked what the Celtics would be trading to get Collins not why the Hawks would be willing to trade him
Just dropping this play in here in case anyone missed the volleyball block. Theis called this one of his top three highlight plays of his career (blocking Trae Young's game winning 3PA in 2020 was his favorite).
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSCeltics/status/1506791425085784064?s=20&t=hd6Hp1N0DW18nV5spqQTug
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSCeltics/status/1506791425085784064?s=20&t=hd6Hp1N0DW18nV5spqQTug
Rob Williams went down on 3/27 and in the 7 games since, Theis averaged 13 points and 6 rebounds while shooting .594/.385/.733 in 28.4 mpg (and just as importantly, 1.9 fouls per game). He's been as good as can possibly be expected (Horford has also been exceptional over this stretch).
It's interesting that in the 3 losses the Celtics have had since TL went down, Theis put up totals of 22, 15, and 13 points. That doesn't account for TL's impact on defense, but it's interesting that at least from an offensive perspective, Theis rose to the occasion.
My understanding of that poster's point was that you are essentially paying a premium for Theis's production at his *spot* and that it wasn't the most efficient use of resources. I am not a cap person and frankly, it seems like well run teams are able to get out of *reasonable* cap-unfriendly contracts with few problems regularly so its not like the C's are stuck with Westbrook at his number or anything. But its not an entirely unreasonable concern, especially if you want to max the Tatum/Brown window.
It’s a short term moderate contract though which is easily movable to any team looking for frontcourt depth (who isn’t looking for this in the summer?) just as he was last time. We aren’t talking about a $20m deal with multiple years on it.
There is also flexibility in having mid-level contracts that can be used for salary matching, having a viable option at C if the decision is made to let Horford go or use him in a trade, etc.
Of course. Your/HRBs point isn't lost. That said - and forgive me for attempting to frame another poster's point but I think its worth clarifying - this poster is maybe one of the foremost cap experts we have here so when they point out potential issues its worth considering.
For the record, my sense is that teams make these moves with exit scenarios already in mind. In short, Brad Stevens knows that he will have some clean up on a few of his aisles down the road. It may cost him extra for the mop and bucket however he is ready to put them into action when the time comes. In the meantime, it turned out to be a fantastic trade from a personnel perspective.
I think mcpickl’s post was reasonable, but also inadvertently highlighted the weakness with the “win every move” / Pritchslap mindset. For one, there is opportunity cost for passing up better fit/talent now for a shot at better value later. Second, I think people are still looking at moves in an 8-man mindset when really depth charts are now at least a man deeper, even in the playoffs.
This is a weird internet message board conversation. No one seriously thinks the Theis acquisition is going to hamstring the team’s ability to maximize the Jays window. Or should anyway. If you made 3 deals like this, sure. But one dude, who’s a terrific fit with those guys in particular and who is already paying dividends with Rob out does not a team break or even slow because he is slightly overpaid.
I dunno, that's not really a 'win every move' type of analysis because from a talent / fit point of view, Theis should have won it over Schroeder. It's purely a financial analysis.
It shouldn't have boiled down to 'It's a great contract if he's a starter, it's a bad one if he's a bench player'. This sort of analysis is how you end up with some not-very-good- bench players that end up becoming -awful- starters when they have to pitch in.
There's -some- need for a middle-class of contracts that basically serve as effective insurance plans and good bench players who won't kill you when they start in terms of rest or injuries, and Theis is, I think, one of those kind of deals that a good project manager who sees the need for continuity would accept as necessary in terms of keeping things operating and overriding a budget analyst for.
Putting a different way, sometimes it's probably a good idea to pay a LITTLE more to people who can competently replace your best workers so they can take time off to remain at peak efficiency, than paying less to people who either can't do the job, or need training and watching your overall business suffer. I feel like this was the inefficiency that Brad Stevens identified while he was coaching and took steps to fix...
Any chance you can stop being an asshole and overblowing a disagreement on the value of Theis contract, or you're just going to keep doing this shit?
Appreciate the people who took my thoughts as more than He Hates Daniel Theis!!!(which I don't)
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Frankly, I think this forum needs a cleansing of sorts. I get that for some, going over history is fun, especially if they were on the right side. That said, the vast majority of us have not been right about a lot of our takes as recently as a few months ago.
As such, this is a motion to focus on the now and going forward, at least insofar as playoff discussions are concerned. In short, if you want to do a deep dive of the best Wally Szczerbiak games during his Cs career, that's great. However if you want to discuss all the stupid content the royal we generated back in December, maybe take it to PM or one of those side forums.
The Celtics are in the playoffs, they look good and they have a shot to make noise. We need to marshal our forces for friendly banter with our non Cs posters, not commit Cs fan on Cs fan crimes.
Finally, I love The Seal even more now that I know how he gets his socks off after a game. He really was a sneaky good acquisition by Mayor Pete.
As such, this is a motion to focus on the now and going forward, at least insofar as playoff discussions are concerned. In short, if you want to do a deep dive of the best Wally Szczerbiak games during his Cs career, that's great. However if you want to discuss all the stupid content the royal we generated back in December, maybe take it to PM or one of those side forums.
The Celtics are in the playoffs, they look good and they have a shot to make noise. We need to marshal our forces for friendly banter with our non Cs posters, not commit Cs fan on Cs fan crimes.
Finally, I love The Seal even more now that I know how he gets his socks off after a game. He really was a sneaky good acquisition by Mayor Pete.
It was a good call. Nothing against TL, but lots of folks were worried that he was an injury risk, fairly or unfairly. And Al might be part of a deal someday that dramatically improves the club, given the size and particulars of his contract. That's two good reasons to have made a move for Theis. Guy knows this system and can play well within it. Even if he's overpaid a bit, there's a fit component that's valuable.
I think that evaluation of the Theis trade remains a legitimate discussion topic for a Celtics board. But this very most recent engagement with that topic was due to a drive-by post intended to mock someone, which we should avoid regardless of topic.
Two fair points. Once it was confirmed that a Horford/TL pairing was very effective Brad had to get out of Kanter and get his hands on a mobile, defense-minded center. White's addition made Schroder just a salary and Brad also did a good job exporting him to a non-playoff competitor (MIL, CLV, CHI all needed PG depth). Theis salary is on the rich side but the team is under the cap this season and will probably have to manage being over the next few seasons if they want to start hoisting banners.
Exactly. The context matters, a lot, when evaluating whether to take on a player who is possibly overpaid for his role/production. I'm perfectly happy if the Celtics finish runners up in the Payroll Efficiency Title race this season or next. The Celtics certainly have their own salary cap experts who know far more about the cap than any poster here, and certainly understand the cap implications.
Chances are high the Celtics are paying the tax next season, although there is a chance they could get hard capped depending upon what moves they make this summer. So having pieces in place that could either play for them or be useful trade chips makes all the sense.
Is Theis really even overpaid? The market for rotation bigs has always been different than other positions due to supply/demand. There are few 7-foot humans on this planet who can compete both physically and skill wise in an NBA game whereas you can plug in a hundred wings or a guards from teams deep benches and may not know the difference. We’ve had these debates dating back to the namesake of this forum. The “replacement player” argument doesn’t fly for bigs as those “replacements” aren’t nearly as readily available as those from other positions and the ones who are available are guys who aren’t likely to fit your scheme like a Kanter or a Hernangomez. No, you don’t have to “Win” every trade however every trade must have a purpose and an objective.
As you said, Brad has always recognized the need for one of these few humans on the planet behind a 35-year old and someone with TL’s history especially if we are going to play them together. If not Kanter than who? Is an MLE-level contract ever really crippling to a team when it fills a need on your roster for both this year and next?
I think mcpickl’s point was that it’s not ideal allocation of resources to pay your 8th man $9M a year, especially when ownership hasn’t shown an appetite to go into the tax the past few seasons.
I don’t necessary agree with him but I think it’s a pretty reasonable point
The tax situation is a bit of a red herring, given that the team the past few years was definitely short of being a true contender. Going over the tax to be eliminated in the first round last season would have made no sense. With the repeater penalties, it makes a lot of sense to push the first taxpaying season as far out into the future as possible.
Yes I understand his point and am not saying that it isn’t reasonable. I was only pointing out that classifying your second unit big as “8th man” is far different than if your 8th man was a wing or a guard where you’d have many options to easily be plugged into that role. Without putting words in his mouth or anyone else’s I feel that by taking that position also takes the position of being ok with Kanter, Hernangomez, Kornet, or a Mo Wagner in this role playing 20 mpg on a championship contender due to financial concerns 2 years down the road that can easily be addressed at that time.
That's a key point. Theis at $8+ million is not automatically a good or bad deal - though as you have noted it is a manageable deal rather than a disastrous one. Whether it is positive or negative depends on context.
In theory, yes. In reality, it's an excellent deal unless you like watching Luke Kornet.
Fair points...The reality is Theis is much more than an "8th man" on the Celtics. The odds that DT would be needed were greater with the minutes TL/Al were being asked to play. Heck, we're too close to comfort with seeing Kornet getting minutes for my liking.
Now that Brad has sorted out their ballhandling depth with Marcus/White for the next few seasons he should be shopping for a defensive-minded/mobile BIG this summer. I believe he can get that guy on the cheap. Brad has been buying defense/selling offense before the paint dried in Danny's office. IMO he's arbitraging an NBA inefficiency and expect him to continue with that theme. Here is an initial/generic list of potential targets