Pats haven’t scored 30 this year
Jets did it once but needed a defensive TD
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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Jets did it once but needed a defensive TD
This might be the most nonsensical post of the last 3 months.
The defense is great. Do you not agree? And who is jerking off? People are trying to assess 2023 and 2024. Heavens to Betsy, why would anyone want to do that?
It’s almost like a political discussion. The Pats defense is objectively good but we can’t admit that because it hurts the other narratives. The defense is also why I struggle with the Belichick discussion. I want someone else building the next offense but I don’t want to lose his defensive chops.
I want BB to still be the HC but I want (a) a bigger coaching staff and (b) a LOT more help with the GM duties.
Watching some other teams around the league, the change in scheme for the Pats I'd like to see is to get a James White-type of pass catching running back on the field again. I think part of the issue for the QBs has been that there has seldom been a safety valve dump off available to them. I know Zeke is kinda supposed to be that guy but he's not been used that way (they use him as a bruiser instead).
Isn’t it possible the defense is looking a lot better than it is because everyone knows the offense is so bad? There’s very little incentive to take any kind of chances when you know the other team basically can’t score 20 points. Teams can play a safer game and play field position if a drive stalls out knowing they’ll probably have it back soon enough. I know they are turning other teams over less this season.
I would rather see the Pats win consistently and give up 90 points per game than lose consistently and give up only 10 points per game. I can't speak for others, but for myself the defense is not the issue - the issue is with everything else so awful (offense, special teams, mental mistakes, drafting, FA signings, etc) that it does not matter how elite this defense is, they are still losing. We are 12 games into the season, the combo has not been working. It hasn't really been working since Brady left. Teams like the 49ers, Eagles, Chjefs, Dolphins, etc. are winning with elite offenses and varying degrees of defense. As a fan, I am at the point would be willing to lose whatever magic BB brought to the defensive side of the ball if it meant that the rest of the team could possibly stop being a dumpster fire. Moreover, if this team is so stacked with premium defensive talent as other posters have stated (personally - I think there are some nice pieces who work well together, but not a lot of players who would be starting for better teams), I can't imagine the next coach would cause them all to nosedive that hard.
In order to be effective I think those changes would have to come from Bill. If they are imposed from above, I don't think it'll go very well. (BOB was rumored to be a Kraft decision and that has failed miserably.) He'd have to do a pretty rigorous self assessment and determine a redefined role and some new blood was necessary.
Out of curiosity, who do you want to add to the GM duties? Any specific people? Wolf and Groh are there now. Get rid of them or supplement?
The flip side is the defense is put in worse situations because of a bad offense. Lots of turnovers, lot's of time on the field. The Patriots opponents average starting field position is the NE 29, which is 6th best in football.
Yes, that's possible.
On the other hand, the Pats' offense is giving the Pats' defense absolutely zero help. They turn the ball over. They don't possess it long. They don't gain many yards. They constantly give the other team excellent field position and put the Pats' defense in terrible situations. Game after game after game. And it's not like the other team isn't trying to score. I mean, Herbert threw 37 times on Sunday, which is his per-game average this year (36.5 attempts per game).
Yes, I fully agree that it’s almost perverse to say the offense is so bad that it makes the defense look better. The offense definitely puts them on the field constantly and in bad position. More just wondering if they might somehow be through the looking glass on that problem because the offensive ineptitude is actually that bad. Not an assertion on my part just an idea that I’ve been wondering
The conditions played a role, but I think where a bad offense can "help" the defense is on 4th down decisions. Staley punted on 4th and 9 from the NE 38, 4th and 12 from the NE 36, and 4th and 3 from the NE 45.
Facing a better offense they may have been more inclined to go for 1 or 2 of those.
Facing a better offense they may have been more inclined to go for 1 or 2 of those.
I think in today's NFL you don't need a top-to-bottom great defense as long as you can score. What you need are a few disruptors who can make big plays when it matters to stall a drive or get a big turnover -- especially in the playoffs. Parsons, Bosa, Donald, Chris Jones, Ramsey, Slay etc.
This is the core issue for me.
I’ve admitted here many times I’m not the most knowledgeable football fan, so I may be talking out of my behind. But I do know something about leadership and organizational goals.
Belichick, like many executives, had success in creating innovative approaches in a field of copycat competitors. He built his early 2000s 3-4 defense with smart, versatile linebackers. He then utilized a quick, no huddle offense a few years later to prevents defenses from changing personnel. He also drafted and employed two dynamic tight ends that allowed his brilliant QB to audible into the right play to attack the defensive alignment he saw pre-snap.
So, if his next idea was to go big on offense and overpower defenses that have been going smaller and quicker, I don’t see that as a terrible plan. The NBA is seeing a similar shift where no one could compete with the Warriors who went against the grain with a small team that was highly efficient shooting threes. But as more teams went small, we’re now seeing the return of dynamic big men which might be contributing to the Warriors’ lack of dominance.
Belichick’s execution of the plan, though, has been abysmal. He let Thuney go and used a first round pick trying to replace him. The beat reporters spent all of training camp writing how terrible the O line looked. The closest comp for the offense he was trying to build is probably Philly, but he didn’t get the Brown and/or Smith that’s necessary to create space for the run game. He tried to invest in TEs again so the team had run/pass flexibility but the two he drafted did nothing, and even a guy like me who’s football knowledge is mostly in DFS could tell you that Henry/Smith/Gesicki are redundant and can’t block.
I don’t see the issue as not having a plan, or even that it was a bad plan. But it gets an F- for execution.
Yeah, that really wasn't a detailed breakdown and there were several inconsistencies to fit the point he was making.
28-31 isn't "young" in the NFL. And I don't know how you can say "who cares?" to Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger while calling some of these other names part of an "elite" young unit.
I mean, he’s not 2007 SJH anymore, but he deserves to come back next year. Short leash though.
I thought this too, but as it turns out, the lead back IS the safety valve. Rham has the most catches on the entire team, with *gulp* 38 on the season. Behind him are Bourne (37) and Pop (36), so we'll go into Thursday's game without any of the top 3 receivers on the season active. Ty Montgomery was supposed to be that guy, but after being out all last year, he's apparently just an ST guy now, with just 4 catches and 3 rushes all year. I assume he'll play more offense next game, but really, who the hell knows anymore?
With 35,207 posts I think if you can hang on for a couple more years you can break Shula's record.
Ever since White got hurt / retired I’ve been wondering why they’ve ignored the position. After slot receiver it was the most important skill position of the dynasty. Unfathomable.
Maybe, but for years the defensive points against were skewed down because teams were chasing TDs and eschewing FGs. So it clearly cuts both ways. Maybe it helps in yards. But not in points. The other factor that “helps” in yards is that opposing offenses have shorter fields to drive.
Agreed, that is one part of the problem on offense... although I can't help but wonder: doesn't this seem like an odd oversight for the 2023 team?
First of all, did Ty Montgomery fall into the Springfield Mystery Hole next to Ozzie Smith? Wasn't he brought here to fill this role? He's battled some injuries this season, but even when healthy only has 4 total receptions. If he wasn't the guy, why didn't they sign someone else (JD McKissic and Darrel Williams, for example, are still free agents and had 40+ catch seasons within the last 2 years)?
Second, as @tims4wins said, this was one of the defining positions of the Belichick/Brady teams and (I think?) helped popularized the 3rd down back leaguewide in the Kevin Faulk era. This team even made sure to find and develop successors in Woodhead/Lewis/Vereen/White through the subsequent seasons.
I can't understand why that position was ignored this year.
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Regarding Ty Montgomery, I have never understood BB's philosophy regarding player usage and that goes even goes back to the days when they were winning, but has gotten weirder now. Some games Raegor plays half the snaps. Some days Thornton plays 2. They "install a package of plays" for Cunningham, 2/3 of which are handoffs. Ty Montgomery was supposed to be a valuable back who only really plays ST. Pharoah Brown has a good game and then disappears. Pop and Boutte have a bad play each and they are punished, but balls bounce off Parker's hands routinely and he stays in the game. Punt returners are seemingly chosen at random. I don't think BB is crazy and his "we play the best player at the time" sentiment is a nothing statement that is vague by design.
As for the scheme itself, it seems like when the Pats were winning, Brady always had a short option to throw to - a TE (Graham, Watson, Hernandez, Gronk), a pass-catching back (Faulk, Woodhead, Green-Ellis, Lewis, Vereen) or a slot receiver (Welker, Edelman, Amendola). There were plenty of options to bail Brady out. It seems like continuing this philosophy with a young QB would have been the way to go, but clearly BB had something else in mind.
As for the scheme itself, it seems like when the Pats were winning, Brady always had a short option to throw to - a TE (Graham, Watson, Hernandez, Gronk), a pass-catching back (Faulk, Woodhead, Green-Ellis, Lewis, Vereen) or a slot receiver (Welker, Edelman, Amendola). There were plenty of options to bail Brady out. It seems like continuing this philosophy with a young QB would have been the way to go, but clearly BB had something else in mind.
Who knows! That is my point. Given that the rest of the WR corps is... less than thrilling, why not play Boutte (considered a first day selection at one point in college) and see if he is any good. The first thing I think about Boutte this year is that his foot was just out of bounds on a fourth down play and some people considered that a mortal sin. Maybe it is. But they are still trotting out Parker (not going to be here long term), JJSS (bad), Reagor (as far as I can tell, a warm body to get the offense up to 11 players) and Thornton (also bad). Maybe his practices are horrific to the point of being unplayable but not bad enough to cut him. Only BB knows. Maybe his practices are average and everyone else is too so BB just kind puts whoever he feels like out there.
Boutte is hurt. He was a DNP at practice last week and DNP yesterday with a shoulder injury.
Fair. The fact that I had no idea whether he was hurt, inactive, playing but invisible, being punished, or anything else is probably telling, but I'll admit that no, I did not know he was currently hurt.
@Jimbodandy - Not sure if that's aimed at me, but here is Boutte on the year:
9/10 - 0 Rec on 4 targets
11/12 - 1 rec on 1 target for 11 yds
11/26 - 1 rec on 2 targets for 8 yds
He was hurt last week and now he is out for practice. I have no idea what to make of his playing time this year, excluding last week.
9/10 - 0 Rec on 4 targets
11/12 - 1 rec on 1 target for 11 yds
11/26 - 1 rec on 2 targets for 8 yds
He was hurt last week and now he is out for practice. I have no idea what to make of his playing time this year, excluding last week.
Not you in particular AZ. The long-standing narrative on the radio in Boston is that anyone who isn't seeing the field was benched by an out-of-touch Belichick. I got a kick out of it because somewhere someone is speculating that Boutte made some trivial faux pas and got sent to football Siberia for it, when in reality he's just hurt.
I think the only reasonable conclusion is that he's not good, or at least hasn't practiced well.
At full health, Boutte was essentially 6th on the WR depth chart:
Bourne
Parker
Smith-Schuster
Douglas
Thornton
Boutte
There's just not enough snaps for your 6th WR when everyone was healthy. He played week 1 when Parker was injured and Thornton on IR. Parker came back the next week, Boutte went out. From weeks 2-9 they had some injuries but it was never really enough to get him on the field. The semi-perplexing week was the Raiders game when Bill talked him up and then left him inactiver despite both Smith-Schuster and Douglas being inactive, but again, at best he was 4th on the depth chart that week.
As the injuries and losses piled up, he was given an opporunity and has since promptly gotten hurt himself.
I mean, that sort of proves my original point before people decided that the thrust of my argument was "Boutte has been punished this week" (something I never wrote). He is apparently too crappy to play, too good to outright cut, was talked up one week he didn't play, and didn't really see the field for months despite the wealth of talent ahead of him, then had 2 1-catch games for a total of 19 yards. What is BB doing with him?
He's a 21yo rookie. For now, BB is getting him medical help. Then BB likely has him on a strength and agility program and has positional and offensive coaches working on upskilling him. And if he gets to the point where they think that he deserves snaps above some other guy on the depth chart, he'll get them.
the depth chart is:
1- Bourne
2-Douglas
3- Henry
and that’s it. Parker is awful, Juju is a corpse out there, Thornton is a compete bust.
This is same is Zappe better than Mac? Probably not but all other options suck. Can Boutte be any worse than Thornton?
You know who has more receiving yards this year than anyone on the Patriots roster? Jonnu Smith and were worried about who the sixth guy is.
I never said the players on the depth chart were good, I was just explaining why Boutte basically went 8 weeks without playing. They didn't think he was good enough to play. I really think it is as simple as that. There are only 2 or 3 WR's on the field on any given play and they didn't think he was one of their 2-3 best WR's. He's 4th, 5th, 6th on the WR depth chart.
It seems that shifted prior to week 10, perhpas as they moved towards looking to the future and seeing what he's got, and he got on the field quite a bit. And promptly got hurt.
I don't really get the Boutte concern.... he's a 6th round rookie. You don't expect those guys to play much. Douglas is a steal because he's showing he can. Boutte isn't a failure because he hasn't played much yet, late round rookies who make the roster are ahead of the curve. If he makes the roster next year and gets snaps that's great, if he doesn't that's par for the course.
Look at rookie year production for late draftees...
2022- of the WRs drafted 187 or later... none got 15 or more targets.
2021-only 1 (Be Skowronek) got 15 targets
2020- big year 3 guys (Freddie Swain, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jauan Jennings)
2019- Just Scotty Miller
2018- 2 guys ( Equanimeous St. Brown, Marcel Ateman) (bunch of guys who didn't turned into legit WRs like Russell Gage, Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios)
Point is... late picks at WR don't play much as rookies, and playing early doesn't really seem to have much tie to being good longer term. Most late rounders don't become real WRs, but the ones that do often didn't play much year 1.
Look at rookie year production for late draftees...
2022- of the WRs drafted 187 or later... none got 15 or more targets.
2021-only 1 (Be Skowronek) got 15 targets
2020- big year 3 guys (Freddie Swain, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jauan Jennings)
2019- Just Scotty Miller
2018- 2 guys ( Equanimeous St. Brown, Marcel Ateman) (bunch of guys who didn't turned into legit WRs like Russell Gage, Cedrick Wilson, Braxton Berrios)
Point is... late picks at WR don't play much as rookies, and playing early doesn't really seem to have much tie to being good longer term. Most late rounders don't become real WRs, but the ones that do often didn't play much year 1.
That is all true regarding late round receivers, but I think the general sentiment is why not try Boutte and see what you have when the other receivers have all proven that they suck?
I get it but the answer is likely that he gets chances in practice and isn’t good enough, as unsatisfying as that is.
Because they generally haven't? Also he's hurt.
I think this is part of the internal evaluation. Does Juju suck... or does the rest of the offense suck so Juju looks worse.
He was good last year for KC, he knows how to run routes, he's a proven NFL receiver. A coaching staff isn't going to (nor should they) write him off for a bad half-season with a terrible QB and an offense that is a mess. It's like how everyone on this board said "Jonnu sucks" and yet he's putting up a top 20 TE season as the #2 guy, and producing at the same (or better) level than Douglas who has been our 2nd best WR. Bad offenses make role players look bad, and it is often more about role, fit and QB performance than the passcatcher.
Also guys have roles, so the Reagor/Thornton combo will get looks before Boutte for their deep speed. I expect Boutte would have gotten activated last week if healthy because Douglas is a guy whose role he can play.
As to why Boutte isn't playing... probably in part the same reason most late-round WRs don't play... the NFL is a huge step up, particularly in learning routes. Particularly in the Patriots offense that relies on a lot of option routes (one reason I'm hesitant on people saying WR/TEs ran bad routes, sometimes they do, sometimes they read the defense and choose an option and the QB picks the other... and given how bad Mac has been I side with the vet passcatchers over him on who read it right).
Because he's hurt. Looked like he was going to start getting some time but then got hurt.
The original point was that Boutte was an example of Belichick's confusing player usage. Truth is that Boutte's usage has been pretty traditional for a late round pick and a guy on the low end of the depth chart. The notion that he should be playing or cut is frankly silly. Boutte is exactly the type of player that this team should have toward the end of the depth chart; a young, developing player with potential.
Due to injuries Boutte got a majority of snaps in week 1 and proved he wasn't quite ready for a major role. Let the kid develop and learn during the week. If he's healthy next week, I would expect him to get some snaps.
Under Belichick, some player usage may fluctuate more than other teams due to game plans but Boutte isn't really a good example of that.
I always thought Boutte was drafted more of a future project than someone who would necessarily contribute right away. After all, he was a 6th round pick for a reason. Not all successful receivers come out of the gate immediately during their rookie seasons.
I think the frustrating aspect of Boutte's usage is that he had a somewhat surprisingly strong training camp, and then showed in Week 1 that he could actually get open. He made a couple of mistakes when he didn't get his feet inbounds and probably allowed himself to get bullied off the ball on another play, but those are not entirely unexpected for someone playing in his first ever NFL game. So when he was pushed down in the depth chart when the injured players returned, it appeared as if he was being "punished". When in reality he was likely just being brought around slowly so his game could develop in practice, which is fine. And, now that he's injured, there's no point forcing him out there.
I think the frustrating aspect of Boutte's usage is that he had a somewhat surprisingly strong training camp, and then showed in Week 1 that he could actually get open. He made a couple of mistakes when he didn't get his feet inbounds and probably allowed himself to get bullied off the ball on another play, but those are not entirely unexpected for someone playing in his first ever NFL game. So when he was pushed down in the depth chart when the injured players returned, it appeared as if he was being "punished". When in reality he was likely just being brought around slowly so his game could develop in practice, which is fine. And, now that he's injured, there's no point forcing him out there.
Somewhat related to the Boutte conversation (though not b/c he's injured), I've been doing some dangerous thinking that I'm probably going to catch a lot of shit for but it's related to this. I don't even know how much I believe it, but it's just an interesting exercise to me.
How close were we to never seeing Tom Brady start for the NEP? If Bledsoe gets out of bounds earlier, does he start for the rest of the season? Is there a world in which Tom Brady gets cut or just stays as a backup until Bledsoe retires?
Because there's an idea that, no matter who you are on the Patriots, you will start if you show yourself to be better than the other alternatives. So why didn't that happen to start the season in 2001? What was Tom not showing in practice that led them to have Drew as QB1? What bar would he have had to clear to beat out Bledsoe without getting game reps?
Then you start to wonder - how much can you demonstrate in practice, particularly as a QB when there's only one of you on the field at a time and the starter is getting most of the reps? Or as a WR deeper on the depth chart who might only be getting reps from the backup QBs?
How many times are players thrust into action because of injury and then they show themselves to be better than their counterparts? At QB alone, there are quite a few examples: Brady, Warner, Romo, Dak, Jalen Hurts, Purdy, and others. We assume that Belichick is some kind of genius when it comes to playing time, but he needed to be forced to play Brady in real games to see that he was a better option.
Point is that sometimes we default to this idea "He must not be good in practice" and that might be right and I think that makes sense when you're a contending team, but it feels less necessary when you suck and you'd benefit from knowing what you really have at the bottom of your roster. The larger problem is that we don't have a lot of upside talent to play at the bottom of the roster, but if, say, Boutte does get healthy, I don't see why we'd waste snaps on known quantities like Parker and JSS when we could see if a rookie sinks or swims given multiple chances.
I thought it’d been pretty well documented BB had been leaning towards Brady since training camp that year.
Brady was also kept on the active roster in 2000 as the 4th QB because they didn't want to risk losing him to waivers by sneaking him onto the practice squad, and despite the signing of Damon Huard heading into 2001 was named the backup QB instead of the 3rd QB to start that season.
It was clear the coaches and team ALREADY thought highly of him before Bledsoe got hurt. He was leading the scout team to TD drives against the first team defense in practices.
It was clear the coaches and team ALREADY thought highly of him before Bledsoe got hurt. He was leading the scout team to TD drives against the first team defense in practices.
I think the obvious point to make here is that Drew had just been signed to the largest contract in league history and Bill didn't exactly have great job security going into year 2 so other things went into the calculus of starting Drew at the time that probably wouldn't factor into his decision making after becoming BILL BELICHICK.
Yes, and Drew had just signed a massive contract, which likely tied BB's hands to some extent. I think it was only a matter of time.
edit: Beaten by rodderick
Drew's contract was essentially only 2/20, the rest of the 10/100 deal was a series of one year renewals that could easily be turned down without cap hits IIRC.
Sure, but it was sold by ownership as THE BIGGEST CONTRACT IN NFL HISTORY so probably don't want to go into 2001 benching that guy after a 5-11 season.
It's been well documented that Brady had outplayed Bledsoe in practice, and there has been a lot of informed speculation that Brady may have been named the starter midseason if Bledsoe continued to struggle in games.
I don't recall any players being released or pushed far down the depth chart by Belichick finding massive success elsewhere.
Jeff Howe polled some executives from around the NFL and three believed the Pats could get a 1st round pick for Belichick in a trade.
Of course, a lot of this depends on Belichick and Kraft. Would Belichick approve of the destination? Does Kraft feel like he owes BB and makes it easier on him by mutually agreeing to part ways instead of holding him hostage for a trade? But I don't think it's too surprising that at least some NFL people think BB could fetch a 1st. Regardless of his missteps the last few years, he's still the greatest coach in NFL history.
2023 Payton
2000 Belichick
Of course, a lot of this depends on Belichick and Kraft. Would Belichick approve of the destination? Does Kraft feel like he owes BB and makes it easier on him by mutually agreeing to part ways instead of holding him hostage for a trade? But I don't think it's too surprising that at least some NFL people think BB could fetch a 1st. Regardless of his missteps the last few years, he's still the greatest coach in NFL history.
Some precedent trades:
2023 Payton
- Broncos get: Payton, 3rd round pick
- Saints get: 1st + 2nd round picks
- Bucs get: Gruden
- Raiders get: two 1sts + two 2nds + $8M
2000 Belichick
- Patriots get: Belichick, 5th + 7th round picks
- Jets get: 1st, 4th, and 7th round picks
- Jets get: Parcells
- Patriots get: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks
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