I expect that Peyton’s outdoor numbers are buttressed (or Brady’s suppressed) by Peyton playing in a higher proportion of hospitable outdoor locations. For instance, Peyton had a healthy dose of playing in JAX, DEN, TEN, SD, OAK, whereas Brady played a ton of shitty weather games in NE and BUF alone, not to mention Miami. Peyton’s Colts were out of the AFC East by 2002 after realignment, so he largely avoided trips to MIA and BUF. I can’t find a readymade breakdown, but I think these are the primary drivers in the closer QB rating.
Now you guys are all talking my language:
Tom Brady (and Rodgers to an extent) created a home field advantage in a place where honestly, it didn't exist previously. The weather he played in and excelled in was not normal. The kind of weather most folks don't want to get out of bed in the morning for, the kind of weather most fans dreaded sitting in, but Tom would show up, SCUBA suit on or whatever and it was no different than if it was 85 degrees without a cloud in the sky, and no wind to speak of.
When I look at the Manning/Brady arguments, I come back to a few stats. I want a QB that keeps drives alive on third down. To wit:
Tom Brady for his career on 3rd and 4-6: 60.14 completion %,88td's, 21ints, 600 first downs on 1,134 pass attempts, 6.7ypa, 7.43 AY/A, 98.3 rating (oh, and while he wasn't fleet of foot, he took off running 48 times, and converted 28 of them for first downs and 3 touchdowns).
On 3rd and 7-9, 54.11 completion %, 44tds, 18ints, 276 first downs on 693 attempts, 7.3 ypa, 7.39 AY/A, 87.9 rating.
On 3rd and 10+, 59.25 Completion %, 29tds, 23ints, 215 first downs on 859 attempts, 8.1ypa, 7.57 AY/A, 85.3 rating.
Now Manning:
3rd and 4-6, 65.39 completion%, 61tds, 26 ints, 486 first downs on 913 attempts, 6.6 ypa, 6.68 AY/A, 94.6 rating
On 3rd and 7-9, 59.54 completion %, 28tds, 28ints, 228 first downs on 556 attempts, 7.2ypa, 5.98 AY/A, 77.7 rating
On 3rd and 10+, 55.87 completion %, 21tds, 28ints, 197 first downs on 673 attempts, 7.6ypa, 6.39 AY/A, 73.5 rating
All else being pretty equal, those Ints and AY/A numbers are the difference between winning a losing a lot of games.
The other one:
When losing, with under 4 minutes to go:
Brady: 56.28, 40tds, 14ints, 89.6 rating
Manning: 56.14, 25tds, 25ints, 72.1 rating