It's really hard to compare between eras in a way that seems predictive.
Soto is somehow still 24 years old. The average fastball is 2 mph faster in 2023 than it was when Stanton was 24 (in 2014). The MLB average strikeout rate is 22.7% this year, compared with 20.4% in 2014.
Convenient for this conversation, Soto and Stanton's age 22-24 seasons are very comparably productive (by wRC+). I'll throw in some other contemporaries who played that young:
Trout, 2068 PA, 169 wRC+
Pujols: 2052 PA, 169 wRC+
Harper: 1773 PA, 155 wRC+
Soto: 1769 PA, 153 wRC+
Stanton: 1643 PA, 153 wRC+
Puig: 1383 PA, 144 wRC+
Bryant: 1349 PA, 142 wRC+
Guerrero Jr.: 1842, 142 wRC+
Now the BB and K% for those guys:
Trout: 14.1 BB%, 23.2 K%
Pujols: 11.5 BB%, 9.1 K%
Harper: 16.9 BB%, 19.6 K%
Soto: 21.2 BB%, 15.7 K%
Stanton: 13.0 BB%, 27.6 K%
Puig: 9.3 BB%, 20.8 K%
Bryant: 11.3 BB%, 26.2 K%
Guerrero Jr.: 9.8 BB%, 16.2 K%
Excepting Pujols (whose age is widely contested), there's nothing comparable to Soto's plate discipline, and he's doing it in an era that has probably favored pitchers more than any other (sticky stuff, Driveline advancements, etc.)
I do think he's the target, but I don't know if now's the time. We'd have to know for sure he'd want to sign here long term, and if we know that, why not just spend the money and save the prospects.
On the other hand, his arb years are so unbelievably expensive ($23M in arb2) that he doesn't have quite as much trade value as people think.
Soto is somehow still 24 years old. The average fastball is 2 mph faster in 2023 than it was when Stanton was 24 (in 2014). The MLB average strikeout rate is 22.7% this year, compared with 20.4% in 2014.
Convenient for this conversation, Soto and Stanton's age 22-24 seasons are very comparably productive (by wRC+). I'll throw in some other contemporaries who played that young:
Trout, 2068 PA, 169 wRC+
Pujols: 2052 PA, 169 wRC+
Harper: 1773 PA, 155 wRC+
Soto: 1769 PA, 153 wRC+
Stanton: 1643 PA, 153 wRC+
Puig: 1383 PA, 144 wRC+
Bryant: 1349 PA, 142 wRC+
Guerrero Jr.: 1842, 142 wRC+
Now the BB and K% for those guys:
Trout: 14.1 BB%, 23.2 K%
Pujols: 11.5 BB%, 9.1 K%
Harper: 16.9 BB%, 19.6 K%
Soto: 21.2 BB%, 15.7 K%
Stanton: 13.0 BB%, 27.6 K%
Puig: 9.3 BB%, 20.8 K%
Bryant: 11.3 BB%, 26.2 K%
Guerrero Jr.: 9.8 BB%, 16.2 K%
Excepting Pujols (whose age is widely contested), there's nothing comparable to Soto's plate discipline, and he's doing it in an era that has probably favored pitchers more than any other (sticky stuff, Driveline advancements, etc.)
I do think he's the target, but I don't know if now's the time. We'd have to know for sure he'd want to sign here long term, and if we know that, why not just spend the money and save the prospects.
On the other hand, his arb years are so unbelievably expensive ($23M in arb2) that he doesn't have quite as much trade value as people think.