UMass hoops 2013-14 - Tourney or Bust
- Thread starter gmogmo
- Start date
Well, that was one of the worst inbound plays you'll ever see. And the foul to boot. Nice job, Kellogg!! Brilliant plan!!
Great win. Chaz was awesome but Trey Davis deserves some credit too. Had a really good game and didn't turnover the ball once. Last year at VCU he really struggled against the havoc.
They are saving that for the Saint Louis game. Will definitely be justified if SLU remains a top 10 team.
mabrowndog said:
They are saving that for the Saint Louis game. Will definitely be justified if SLU remains a top 10 team.
The latest rankings:
KenPom - 19 SLU, 23 VCU, 40 GW, 44 UMass, 55 Dayt, 65 Rich, 66 St.J, 75 SBU, 114 LaS
Sagarin - 25 SLU, 30 VCU, 35 UMass, 45 GW, 59 Dayt, 66 St.J, 69 Rich, 78 SBU, 118 LaS
StatSheet - 12 SLU, 14 UMass, 24 GW, 28 VCU, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 56 Dayt, 90 LaS, 95 SBU
Lunardi - 12 SLU, 13 UMass, 24 VCU, 28 GW, 38 St.J, 48 Rich, 55 Dayt, 91 SBU, 93 LaS
CB News - 12 SLU, 15 UMass, 24 VCU, 31 GW, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 57 Dayt, 86 SBU, 96 LaS
NCAA.com - 12 SLU, 15 UMass, 25 VCU, 31 GW, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 57 Dayt, 86 SBU, 96 LaS
CBS RPI - 12 SLU, 15 UMass, 25 VCU, 32 GW, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 57 Dayt, 86 SBU, 96 LaS
KenPom - 19 SLU, 23 VCU, 40 GW, 44 UMass, 55 Dayt, 65 Rich, 66 St.J, 75 SBU, 114 LaS
Sagarin - 25 SLU, 30 VCU, 35 UMass, 45 GW, 59 Dayt, 66 St.J, 69 Rich, 78 SBU, 118 LaS
StatSheet - 12 SLU, 14 UMass, 24 GW, 28 VCU, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 56 Dayt, 90 LaS, 95 SBU
Lunardi - 12 SLU, 13 UMass, 24 VCU, 28 GW, 38 St.J, 48 Rich, 55 Dayt, 91 SBU, 93 LaS
CB News - 12 SLU, 15 UMass, 24 VCU, 31 GW, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 57 Dayt, 86 SBU, 96 LaS
NCAA.com - 12 SLU, 15 UMass, 25 VCU, 31 GW, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 57 Dayt, 86 SBU, 96 LaS
CBS RPI - 12 SLU, 15 UMass, 25 VCU, 32 GW, 38 St.J, 47 Rich, 57 Dayt, 86 SBU, 96 LaS
How the hell is VCU so far in front of Umass the KenPom rankings? Nevermind the fact that them being ranked ahead makes no sense at all to begin with.
BoSoxFink said:
Mathematics. Generally, relying on points scored/points against. He finds UMass luck factor to be high and VCU's in the negative. I think his rankings are interesting in predicting future results, but should have zero influence in picking the tournament. It doesn't matter is you were lucky or not, it only matters if you win. Its like if MLB pythag w/l instead of actual standings. Pythag is great for looking if a team should regress or become better, but it the actual w/ls, not margin of victory that matters in the end.
Pomeroy's is a "predictive" system based largely on Pythagorean projections. He makes several adjustments to the basic points scored vs points allowed quotient. The principles behind his math are covered here, and he explains some recent revisions and refinements here.
Without actually crunching the numbers myself, I'm going to assume UMass gets penalized a shit-ton for having so many close games and winning a vast majority of them. This falls within his "luck" component:
They've had 13 games with margins of 8 pts or less, and a dozen of them were 6 or less.
W: Neb* 6, Clem* 6, Prov 2, Mia OH 8, St.J 4, SBU 5, @GMU 1, @URI 5, @ GW 6, VCU 5
L: FSU* 5, @Rich 3, @St.J 5
Now let's look at VCU, who have had just 8 such games.
W: @VA 3, LB St* 6, E.Ky 3, @ LaS 8,
L: Gtwn* 4, @St.J 7, @SLU 2, @UMass 5
UMass is 10-3, VCU 4-4. Hence, the Minutemen are "lucky" and not "determined, willful or gutsy cardiac kids", while the Rams have seen the coin flips split 50-50 -- just as KP expects them to.
A major flaw in Pomeroy's system is that it doesn't account for garbage time, when the coach of a team with a significant lead puts in his reserves and sees the margin dwindle. Then there are those final shots scored by the trailing opponents (often their own bench warmers) where they get a dunk or drain a three with a second or two left just to get on the score sheet when the winning team is barely defending, if at all, because the outcome is no longer in question. KP's theory is that such instances should balance out over a season, but it certainly discriminates against better teams -- those who find themselves with double-digit leads most often, and allow them to drop back to single digits. (Likewise, it benefits those that run up the score to build leads of 25+, to the point any garbage time still allows a 15- or 20-point margin. There's no diminishing returns principle, and the teams whose coaches show no mercy don't have a glut of close games where they've won the majority -- so they don't get penalized for it.)
However, "dwindling leads in garbage time" haven't been the issue for UMass. As we've seen, they've had to claw their way back into most of the above games in the final minutes after cold shooting and on-their-heels defense (spawned by the numerous fast breaks off so many missed shots) have put them in early holes.
I don't agree with Pomeroy's system in this regard, but I believe this explains the discrepancy.
Without actually crunching the numbers myself, I'm going to assume UMass gets penalized a shit-ton for having so many close games and winning a vast majority of them. This falls within his "luck" component:
They've had 13 games with margins of 8 pts or less, and a dozen of them were 6 or less.
W: Neb* 6, Clem* 6, Prov 2, Mia OH 8, St.J 4, SBU 5, @GMU 1, @URI 5, @ GW 6, VCU 5
L: FSU* 5, @Rich 3, @St.J 5
Now let's look at VCU, who have had just 8 such games.
W: @VA 3, LB St* 6, E.Ky 3, @ LaS 8,
L: Gtwn* 4, @St.J 7, @SLU 2, @UMass 5
UMass is 10-3, VCU 4-4. Hence, the Minutemen are "lucky" and not "determined, willful or gutsy cardiac kids", while the Rams have seen the coin flips split 50-50 -- just as KP expects them to.
A major flaw in Pomeroy's system is that it doesn't account for garbage time, when the coach of a team with a significant lead puts in his reserves and sees the margin dwindle. Then there are those final shots scored by the trailing opponents (often their own bench warmers) where they get a dunk or drain a three with a second or two left just to get on the score sheet when the winning team is barely defending, if at all, because the outcome is no longer in question. KP's theory is that such instances should balance out over a season, but it certainly discriminates against better teams -- those who find themselves with double-digit leads most often, and allow them to drop back to single digits. (Likewise, it benefits those that run up the score to build leads of 25+, to the point any garbage time still allows a 15- or 20-point margin. There's no diminishing returns principle, and the teams whose coaches show no mercy don't have a glut of close games where they've won the majority -- so they don't get penalized for it.)
However, "dwindling leads in garbage time" haven't been the issue for UMass. As we've seen, they've had to claw their way back into most of the above games in the final minutes after cold shooting and on-their-heels defense (spawned by the numerous fast breaks off so many missed shots) have put them in early holes.
I don't agree with Pomeroy's system in this regard, but I believe this explains the discrepancy.
Back to into the "Others receiving votes" category. As is New Mexico, which will help a bit with perception.
Win the next two games they should be ranked again. Which will help deal with any potential fallout from what should be a rather brutal A-10 conference tournament.
Win the next two games they should be ranked again. Which will help deal with any potential fallout from what should be a rather brutal A-10 conference tournament.
A win tonight pretty much clinches a berth....guessing they could withstand a 3 game losing streak to end year. Hopefully they can finish strong to get a 6 or 7 seed and avoid the 8/9 game though.
mabrowndog said:
Damn. That sucks. I got the subcription to watch the Richmond game, maybe I will do it again.
Thanks for the info.
Not sure I'd want to pay for an online stream of either URI or Duquesne, in part because Cape Cod is limited to low-speed cable internet (no fiber optics yet, so Fios isn't even offered by Verizon), but also because anything other than a dominant UMass blowout is bound to piss me off. Adding jumpy, constantly buffering internet feeds of indiscriminate resolution would only compound my anger.
FYI, the game at Dayton this Saturday morning at 11 AM is on ESPNU, and the St. Louis game at Mullins on Sunday, March 9, at 2 pm is on CBSSN.
FYI, the game at Dayton this Saturday morning at 11 AM is on ESPNU, and the St. Louis game at Mullins on Sunday, March 9, at 2 pm is on CBSSN.
I'll do my best to dig up an illegal feed.
edit: some links that may work:
http://www.feed2all.eu/watch/242735/1/watch-massachusetts-vs-rhode-island.html
http://www.vipboxus.co/basketball/210433/1/rhode-island-vs-massachusetts-live-stream-online.html
http://neolive.net/211852/1/Watch-Massachusetts-vs-Rhode-Island-/
edit: some links that may work:
http://www.feed2all.eu/watch/242735/1/watch-massachusetts-vs-rhode-island.html
http://www.vipboxus.co/basketball/210433/1/rhode-island-vs-massachusetts-live-stream-online.html
http://neolive.net/211852/1/Watch-Massachusetts-vs-Rhode-Island-/
This link is working pretty flawlessly: http://www.feed2all.eu/watch/242735/1/watch-massachusetts-vs-rhode-island.html
Brutal fucking start for Umass. They are 2 for 15 from the field so far and have 6 points in the first 8 minutes of the game and trail 10-6 early.
It got to as bad as 21-8 with 8:00 left in the half. URI already with 5 blocked shots.
UMass shooting 3 for 23 from the field. It's beyond description at this point.
EDIT - A Gordon jumper and a Carter three get them back into it, 21-13.
UMass shooting 3 for 23 from the field. It's beyond description at this point.
EDIT - A Gordon jumper and a Carter three get them back into it, 21-13.
I swear to god, this team wins big games and then think they are better then they are and think they can cruise past some of the poorer teams. They don't seem to understand you can't take any of these teams lightly or it will bite you in the ass.
Thanks for the link Corsi....Corsi said:
Tuning in late, but looks like they're recovering nicely from that early hole.
The Chaz three gets them to within a point. It's a 17-5 run with 1:35 left.
EDIT - Gordon ties it with a FT.
EDIT - Gordon ties it with a FT.
Trey with the three! 31-28 Minutemen, under a minute left.
EDIT - With the lead at halftime, 31-30, but there's no excuse for not blowing the snot out of this team.
EDIT - With the lead at halftime, 31-30, but there's no excuse for not blowing the snot out of this team.
Trey Davis has really developed a lot through the course of the A-10 schedule....looked great against VCU as well.