What do we actually have with Brock Holt?

[BosRedSox5]

There's no question that Holt has been a fan favorite for the Red Sox. He's been one of the few fun parts about the 2014 team. I for one enjoy watching him play tons of different positions every week... but what can we expect from him in the future? 

When he first started getting hot, people said it was just the annual Red Sox reserve infielder hot streak. Then he kept it up and people started to think he might be able to produce in the long term. This season BBref has him at a WAR of 1.7. Not great, but pretty good. He's handled every position in the big leagues except short, catcher and pitcher and he's played more shortstop than anything else in the minors. His BABIP is really high at .395 and his history in the minors, while good, shows little power. In his big league career his ISO is .093.
 
So what kind of future does Holt have with the Red Sox? I've been fond of calling him "our Ben Zobrist" but is that accurate? He's been a starter for us out of necessity, is it realistic to expect him to take a super-sub role after this year? Is he good enough to land a starting spot on the 2015 club? Maybe by playing him at short, leaving X at 3B and waiting for Marerro to mature? 

What can we expect from him going forward? 

 

[DJnVa]

 
So what kind of future does Holt have with the Red Sox? I've been fond of calling him "our Ben Zobrist" but is that accurate?

 
Well, Rick Sutcliffe said he could become Bill Mueller. But a lot of Rick Sutcliffe's ideas sound like he was hit in the head a lot.

 

[BosRedSox5]

 
Well, Rick Sutcliffe said he could become Bill Mueller. But a lot of Rick Sutcliffe's ideas sound like he was hit in the head a lot.

 
Apart from Mueller's wonderful 2003 season, he was a guy with a BBref WAR of like 1.5 to 3 who didn't hit for much power, so offensively that seems like a good comp. 

 

[DJnVa]

Brock Holt's BABIP is nearly .400. I'm assuming that eventually comes down, and he doesn't walk as much as Mueller, so if that drops to something like .350, his .370 or so OBP will drop a bunch too.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

They have some who retweets this genius:
 
https://twitter.com/Tony26Montana/status/482239199102251009
 
I'm not sure his best comps are switch-hitters, and in terms of Mueller, someone without as much position flexibility. Simply put, there's really no easy historical comp, and I think at this point we should be asking, "who is the next Brock Holt?"

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So what kind of future does Holt have with the Red Sox? I've been fond of calling him "our Ben Zobrist" but is that accurate?

 
Maybe more like a lefthanded Martin Prado?

 

[Devizier]

Optimistically: Matt Carpenter?
Less optimistically: Aki Iwamura?
Pessimistically: Nick Punto?

 

[B H Kim]

Given his major and minor league performances prior to this year, I just find it very hard to believe that he can be much more than a useful reserve IF/OF long-term.  The guy he actually reminds me of is Steve Lombardozzi, i.e., a decent backup whose weaknesses were eventually exposed when the Nationals had to rely on him every day for much of last year.  I was surprised when I compared their minor league stats to see how similar they are:
 
Holt:  481 games, 2070 PA, .782 OPS, 64 SB, 15 HR, 272 K's
Lombardozzi:  493 games, 2181 PA, .764 OPS, 77 SB, 17 HR, 283 K's

 

[EricFeczko]

Both zips and steamer have him projected for 0.4-0.7 fWAR, and 86-97 wRC+ for the remainder of the season. If we extrapolate that to 150 games, its about 1.2-2 fWAR. I'd say this is pretty consistent with my own observation. He's an above-average utility player, which is valuable because he can play almost every position on the diamond, but he doesn't have a sufficient bat to be a true everyday player.
 

 

[Plympton91]

His unbelievably good outfield play really solidifies him as a great utility guy in an era of 4 man benches. Another comp might be Darren Bragg, though with a little less power and speed. I think he'll be a great 24th man for the next 5 years.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

His unbelievably good outfield play really solidifies him as a great utility guy in an era of 4 man benches. Another comp might be Darren Bragg, though with a little less power and speed. I think he'll be a great 24th man for the next 5 years.

 
While I've been impressed with his OF play (esp. considering that it's a new position for him), I'd be cautious re projections at this point.  Part of that's sample size.  Part of it is a subjective observation that in several cases he hasn't taken great routes but has made up for it with sprawling catches.  Gomes losing the ball in the gloaming the other day is a case in point.  Holt saved the day with his dive, but got a late break and took a horrible route to get there.  (Though he might have had trouble tracking it as well.)  Great outfielders make the spectacular look routine.  Holt's kinda been doing the opposite.
 
Overall though I agree with your assessment that his versatility might make him a very useful utility player (who would have thought he'd be the prize in the Pittsburgh trade?).  But let's see if his offense stays strong when his BABIP comes back to earth.  Frankly I think it's more likely that he's the latest in a long line of AAAA players who had a month or two in the sun.  Hope I'm wrong.

 

[ji oh]

 
While I've been impressed with his OF play (esp. considering that it's a new position for him), I'd be cautious re projections at this point.  Part of that's sample size.  Part of it is a subjective observation that in several cases he hasn't taken great routes but has made up for it with sprawling catches.  Gomes losing the ball in the gloaming the other day is a case in point.  Holt saved the day with his dive, but got a late break and took a horrible route to get there.  (Though he might have had trouble tracking it as well.)  Great outfielders make the spectacular look routine.  Holt's kinda been doing the opposite.
 
Overall though I agree with your assessment that his versatility might make him a very useful utility player (who would have thought he'd be the prize in the Pittsburgh trade?).  But let's see if his offense stays strong when his BABIP comes back to earth.  Frankly I think it's more likely that he's the latest in a long line of AAAA players who had a month or two in the sun.  Hope I'm wrong.

Holt wasn't supposed to take a direct route to that routine fly ball that Gomes lost: he was running over to back it up as a CF usually does.  When he saw that Gomes was lost he had to take a left turn.  Right?

 

[Al Zarilla]

Holt wasn't supposed to take a direct route to that routine fly ball that Gomes lost: he was running over to back it up as a CF usually does.  When he saw that Gomes was lost he had to take a left turn.  Right?

Right turn for Holt. Right? Holt coming from that far away on an apparent easy flyball for the left fielder was amazing. No way anybody should question his "route" to the ball.
 
http://deadspin.com/jonny-gomes-loses-fly-ball-brock-holt-saves-the-day-wi-1592380121

 

[IdiotKicker]

In the other thread, I mentioned Jeff Frye as an offensive comp, with obviously a lot more positional flexibility. I think that seems to be strengthening with the larger sample size.

 

[BoredViewer]

Through the prime of his career... he could be that guy who is never the ideal starter for any particular position... but, seems to consistently be a better option than 2 or 3 of the guys that would otherwise be starting.  Thus, he ends up with 600 PA each season.

 

[EricFeczko]

 
While I've been impressed with his OF play (esp. considering that it's a new position for him), I'd be cautious re projections at this point.  Part of that's sample size.  Part of it is a subjective observation that in several cases he hasn't taken great routes but has made up for it with sprawling catches.  Gomes losing the ball in the gloaming the other day is a case in point.  Holt saved the day with his dive, but got a late break and took a horrible route to get there.  (Though he might have had trouble tracking it as well.)  Great outfielders make the spectacular look routine.  Holt's kinda been doing the opposite.
 
Overall though I agree with your assessment that his versatility might make him a very useful utility player (who would have thought he'd be the prize in the Pittsburgh trade?).  But let's see if his offense stays strong when his BABIP comes back to earth.  Frankly I think it's more likely that he's the latest in a long line of AAAA players who had a month or two in the sun.  Hope I'm wrong.

I completely agree that an average BABIP of .375 is impossible to sustain, but how much should BABIP regress here? Holt has already had 263 PAs, so his batted ball profile is starting to stabilize, with a 26.4 percent line drive rate, 49.7 percent GB rate, and a 23.8 percent FB rate. His walk and strikeout rates are stable, so we can expect a 3/1 K rate as well. His homerun rate is miniscule, so even pessimistically, his power may not drop too much. According to a simple and outdated BABIP calculator, he could be expected to have a .323-.363 BABIP (.343 BABIP, which seems a little to sure to me, so I added 0.20 uncertainty to the projection. Even with a .325 BABIP, he could still hit .270/.320/.390. Combined with his ability to play all positions, that's a valuable utility player in the current run depressed environment.

 

 

[KillerBs]

He is playing a decent SS today. I think the answer to the title question is increasingly looking like: a guy who can play 7 positions AND hit and get on base at league average at least ie a very important piece going forward.

 

[Boggs26]

You'd have to imagine he's the emergency catcher at this point, right? Maybe even the first position player in line to pitch, so it's not out of the question that he may play all 9 during the season. Doubt he'll get to all in one game though unfortunately

 

[BosRedSox5]

You'd have to imagine he's the emergency catcher at this point, right? Maybe even the first position player in line to pitch, so it's not out of the question that he may play all 9 during the season. Doubt he'll get to all in one game though unfortunately

I disagree, it's been done a few times in baseball history as a fun kind of stunt for teams with nothing to lose. All of us basically want to see it so why wouldn't they?

Do it during a game where an athletic guy like Buchholz is pitching. Put Holt in to pitch to a batter an Buch in RF or something. Have Holt catch half an inning, move him around... It'd be fun.

 

[Boggs26]

I disagree, it's been done a few times in baseball history as a fun kind of stunt for teams with nothing to lose. All of us basically want to see it so why wouldn't they?

Do it during a game where an athletic guy like Buchholz is pitching. Put Holt in to pitch to a batter an Buch in RF or something. Have Holt catch half an inning, move him around... It'd be fun.

Oh, I agree it'd be fun, I just don't think the Sox would do it unless they saw some benefit to it. And generally I don't think they consider "the fans would like it" a good enough benefit to mess with players during a game.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Brock with a tidy performance in the Astros series: 10-15, with a walk, two doubles, a triple, and a dinger. That's the kind of weekend that stars have. Sure, a role player lucks into a three-day performance like that every once in a while, because baseball is random like that, but not often. 
 
He already has 7 games on the season with three hits or more, in just 60 games. 
 
Edit: Couldn't help myself from staring at his splits for a while. I think the thing that jumps out is that he seems to be great at recognizing his pitch and hitting it hard. 
 
He doesn't take a ton of walks (just 18, vs 50 SO), so it's fair to wonder about his command of the strike zone, but when he gets his pitch, he appears to hit it hard. 
 
When he puts the first pitch of the at-bat in play, meaning theoretically that he's looking for a ball in a specific spot, he's 6-14, with 2 doubles and triple. Further, when he's ahead in the count, and similarly able to ignore a portion of the plate, he's money. 
 
After 1-0 count: .923 OPS
After 2-0 count: 1.417 in 42 PAs
After 2-1 count: .892 OPS
After 3-1 count: 1.286 in 28 PAs
 
Sure, just about every player hits well when ahead in the count, but Pedey, for example, is only at .767 after a 2-1 count. Ortiz is at .758. Drew is at ... nevermind. 
 
When Brock gets behind, like a 1-2 count, he struggles like everyone else: .459 OPS in 82 PAs. Pedey's at .486, Ortiz at .437.
 
So, is that a skill, or is it his high BABIP showing up in balls he's putting into play when ahead in the count and seeing fastballs?

 

[jscola85]

While I've been worried that BROCKHOLT! has just been our version of 2013 Chris Johnson, looking at his xBABIP, because of his high LD% and relatively high level of groundballs coupled with good speed, his xBABIP is only 13 points lower than his BABIP.  Now, perhaps he can't keep up a 27% line drive rate, but until that starts to decline substantially, he could look something like a .290-.300 hitter, .340-.350 OBP and .400-.420 SLG.  A super-utility guy who can hit like that and actually seems to play decent defense most anywhere he is put suddenly becomes a really, really valuable piece.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Before MDLTG posted his edit I was going to point out that he seems to have a fantastic plate approach which is why I think what he's doing can be somewhat sustainable. The numbers look like they agree with that notion. Also looking at his minor league numbers, other than his SSS in AAA and MLB previous to this year, he's been a high BABIP high OBP hitter for the majority of the time. I think we're getting to see a really good overall player breakout and at this point I don't think this is going to be a one year wonder thing. Brock Holt is for real. Either the Sox were extremely lucky or way ahead of the curve (I guess it could be both) when they got him from Pittsburgh.

 

[Koufax]

Super-utility would be a great result for him and for the team.  It's a very valuable contribution to a team and one that very few players can make.  Sort of like what makes David Ortiz so special.  Several players can hit as well as him; few can do it as the DH. 

 

[radsoxfan]

 Sort of like what makes David Ortiz so special.  Several players can hit as well as him; few can do it as the DH. 

 
I know this is the Brock Holt thread…. but I strongly disagree with this line of thought.
 
First of all, not many people can hit as well as David Ortiz.  And of those who can, most would be just fine doing it as a DH.  Ortiz is great because a great hitter, not because he has some extra ability to do it without taking the field on defense. 
 
As to Holt, I think this is only semi-fluke for him. And I mean that as a positive.  I'm not sure he is a .800+ OPS guy, but I think he could be hugely valuable as a super utility guy who has a very respectable bat (.275/.350/.400?).  He is definitely carving out a real role with the club going forward. 

 

[Hank Scorpio]

The amazing thing about Brock Holt is, he could make a 25 man roster without a position, and still play almost every day by moving around the diamond and just giving everyone a day off, one day at a time. And be productive while doing it.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Baseball reference hasn't yet updated with today's numbers, but Holt seems like he'd be about 5th in the league in batting average at the all star break (if he were qualified.) He's up to .327/.371/.463 at the break in 257 plate appearances. That is a higher slugging percentage at the All-Star break than Miguel Cabrera. .327/.371/.463 after more than half the season. Brock Holt! That's just crazy.
 
His OPS is only a few points lower than Ortiz, and is better than everyone else on the team. Considering he is a decent baserunner and has played all over the field and done pretty well at it, he's actually been our best position player this year. He actually deserves an all-star spot, as they'd be much better off with him coming off the bench than say Aybar or Alexei Ramirez. 
 
This can't keep up though, he can't keep hitting better in the majors than he ever did in the minors. But as Bri Mac writes, this year he has adjusted a little bit to turn on inside pitches and pull them with authority, and it's really paid off. 

 

[Sprowl]

My gut feeling is that Holt is better as an outfielder than an infielder. His throws sometimes sail high from third base, and his range at shortstop is subpar, but his range and sliding catches in the corner outfield spots have been impressive, especially in rightfield, where he has been the team's best performer in 2014.
 
(SSS alert) Holt's Defensive Runs Saved in four positions:
 
242 innings at 3B: -2
155.1 innings in RF: +5!
61.1 innings at 1B: -1
59 innings in LF: -1
 
2B, SS, CF: samples too small to hear over the laughter.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

The amazing thing about Brock Holt is, he could make a 25 man roster without a position, and still play almost every day by moving around the diamond and just giving everyone a day off, one day at a time. And be productive while doing it.

We saw this player in Seattle in 2001: Mark McLemore. It is a very luxurious chess piece for a manager to have.

 

[judyb]

It is higher than Melky Cabrera's, was that the oops?

 

[Super Nomario]

Before MDLTG posted his edit I was going to point out that he seems to have a fantastic plate approach which is why I think what he's doing can be somewhat sustainable. The numbers look like they agree with that notion. Also looking at his minor league numbers, other than his SSS in AAA and MLB previous to this year, he's been a high BABIP high OBP hitter for the majority of the time. I think we're getting to see a really good overall player breakout and at this point I don't think this is going to be a one year wonder thing. Brock Holt is for real. Either the Sox were extremely lucky or way ahead of the curve (I guess it could be both) when they got him from Pittsburgh.

A tad off-topic: maybe Holt does have a real BABIP skill, but minor league BABIP numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Even from the majors to the International League is a jump of about .015 BABIP as a league, and leagues like the PCL and CAL have league BABIPs around .330. Pretty good study at: http://gradingonthecurve.com/2012/02/29/minors-babip-musings-part-3/

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Huh? Miguel Cabrera's slugging percentage is .538.

I took that right from the article I linked. I should have double-checked it. Not sure what they meant then. 

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I took that right from the article I linked. Now it's been removed from the article. Projo should have to pay you for the fact checking. 

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

A tad off-topic: maybe Holt does have a real BABIP skill, but minor league BABIP numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Even from the majors to the International League is a jump of about .015 BABIP as a league, and leagues like the PCL and CAL have league BABIPs around .330. Pretty good study at: http://gradingonthecurve.com/2012/02/29/minors-babip-musings-part-3/

Thanks for the link SN. That was really informative. I agree that the minor league numbers aren't all that predictive and expectations should be tempered, but it's still nice to see that its something he's been doing throughout his career.

 

[Drek717]

We saw this player in Seattle in 2001: Mark McLemore. It is a very luxurious chess piece for a manager to have.

McLemore was 36 in 2001.  Brock Holt turned 26 three days ago.  So if Brock Holt can be the '01/'02 McLemore for a half decade or so we'd really have something.
 
The interesting thing for me with Holt is this: will the BABIP decline?  Absolutely.  But when it does will his BB% climb back up?  He's at 6.5% at the ML level this year and 6.6% at AAA this year.  Every year before though his BB% in the minors was 8.5%-9.5%.  His K% is up too but that is likely a product of facing superior pitching.  He can weather some BABIP decline if he gets back to being more disciplined at the plate (though you can't really blame him for swinging away).
 
It gets real interesting when you pull his splits apart though.  He's got a .467 BABIP against LHP and a .354 against RHP.  That is one hell of a reverse split.  Meanwhile here are his BB% and K% against his splits.
LHP: 5.4%/25.2%
RHP: 7.1%/13.7%
 
No home runs off lefties but 11 of his 18 doubles despite a little less than half his ABs.  His infield hit percentage against LHP is 15.6%, against RHP it's 7.1%.
 
If I was to take a guess on what exactly Brock Holt is it's this: a good contact hitter with better walk rates and K rates than we're seeing now (something more like 7-8 BB% and 15-16 K%) that are being depressed by the guy being in an insane zone and hitting every ball on the screws, so he's swinging away more than normal.  The end result is that he's so locked in he's producing a massive reverse split, since splits for most LHP aren't a product of a dominant pitch against LHBs but instead a matter of deception and site angles.  No one is deceiving Brock Holt of a damn thing when he steps to the plate right now and LHP keep walking themselves right into it thinking those get me over pitches that get most LHBs are going to work.  They aren't.
 
The balance of that should hopefully be a guy with a line along the lines of .280/.345/.400-.450.  The SLG is the real hard part to guesstimate.  His ISO took a big jump in both AAA and MLB this season, but then he's physically reaching his peak and so maybe he's just now manifesting the power so many scouts talk about other prospects growing into.  In his case that's going form a singles slap hitter to a gap to gap doubles hitter.  If true and he's the high end of that slugging range he's a valuable every day guy somewhere on the field (maybe somewhere different game to game).  If not and he goes back to being a good contact slap hitter with solid plate discipline he's still likely to be a .720-.750 OPS utility guy most teams would love to have.

 

[ivanvamp]

I think what we are seeing is that Brock Holt has the ability to be a pretty decent major league player.  His career minor league numbers are excellent (.307/.371/.410/.782), he can play lots of positions well, and has been very good so far this year.  He won't likely be a multiple all-star, but he looks like a keeper.  Lots of teams could use a player like Holt, including the Red Sox.

 

[benhogan]

My gut feeling is that Holt is better as an outfielder than an infielder. His throws sometimes sail high from third base, and his range at shortstop is subpar, but his range and sliding catches in the corner outfield spots have been impressive, especially in rightfield, where he has been the team's best performer in 2014.
 
(SSS alert) Holt's Defensive Runs Saved in four positions:
 
242 innings at 3B: -2
155.1 innings in RF: +5!
61.1 innings at 1B: -1
59 innings in LF: -1
 
2B, SS, CF: samples too small to hear over the laughter.

My amateur eye kind of see's the same thing, Brock looks pretty decent in RF.  When WMB gets healthy, I wonder if this team would be better served with Mookie getting some more reps at CF/RF at the AAA level.  With Brock taking the lions share of the time in RF, sorry I just don't think we'll see a healthy Vic in '14.  
 
3rd and SS would be a rotation of Xander, Drew and WMB, which posters like Drek717, proposed several times in the off-season. The biggest concern with that suggestion I recall was the lack of a quality back-up 2nd basemen, now that we have Brock Holt to back up 2nd (BTW- that would have been 2 out of the first 95 games) all those worries should go away.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Here's what I get when I plug in what seem like reasonable floor-to-ceiling ranges for BABIP, BB/K rates, and XBH:
 
STAT: floor - mid - ceiling
BABIP: .310 - .325 - .340
BB rate: 6% - 8% - 10%
K rate: 19% - 16% - 13%
2B/3B/HR per 600 PA: 25/4/3 - 33/6/5 - 40/8/7
 
I get these slash lines:
Floor: .245/.295/.321/.616
Mid: .263/.327/.375/.702
Ceiling: .285/.360/.431/.791
 
I think that mid line, while it's not exactly sexy, would be very solid for a utility guy in the current offensive context. And my BABIP range may be a bit conservative. While obviously his current BABIP is not sustainable, he's a LD/GB hitter with decent speed, so his BABIPs should be high.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

McLemore was 36 in 2001.  Brock Holt turned 26 three days ago.  So if Brock Holt can be the '01/'02 McLemore for a half decade or so we'd really have something.

Excellent point. McLemore became a super sub because he lost the starting 2nd baseman's job to a juicing Bret Boone.

It's still a great weapon for a manager to have, regardless of how the arrow winds up in the quiver.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Poor man's Ben Zobrist?

 

[mfried]

There's no question that Holt has been a fan favorite for the Red Sox. He's been one of the few fun parts about the 2014 team. I for one enjoy watching him play tons of different positions every week... but what can we expect from him in the future? 
When he first started getting hot, people said it was just the annual Red Sox reserve infielder hot streak. Then he kept it up and people started to think he might be able to produce in the long term. This season BBref has him at a WAR of 1.7. Not great, but pretty good. He's handled every position in the big leagues except short, catcher and pitcher and he's played more shortstop than anything else in the minors. His BABIP is really high at .395 and his history in the minors, while good, shows little power. In his big league career his ISO is .093.
 
So what kind of future does Holt have with the Red Sox? I've been fond of calling him "our Ben Zobrist" but is that accurate? He's been a starter for us out of necessity, is it realistic to expect him to take a super-sub role after this year? Is he good enough to land a starting spot on the 2015 club? Maybe by playing him at short, leaving X at 3B and waiting for Marerro to mature? 

What can we expect from him going forward? 

He HAS played competent though not brilliant short.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Poor man's Ben Zobrist?

 
More like Ben Zobrist with a  Red Bull I.V.

 

[jscola85]

Poor man's Ben Zobrist?

 
If he develops Zobrist's power stroke that would be one heck of a player.  He's Zobrist in the sense that he is positionally versatile and has a solid OBP, but different hitters and players otherwise.

 

[Devizier]

Excellent point. McLemore became a super sub because he lost the starting 2nd baseman's job to a juicing Bret Boone.

 
What's to say McLemore wasn't juicing too? The guy's power took a little jump when he made the transition (although he was seeing better matchups).

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
What's to say McLemore wasn't juicing too? The guy's power took a little jump when he made the transition (although he was seeing better matchups).

Fair point. We'll never know.

 

[bosockboy]

Other than the switch hitting, he reminds me of this guy:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillto02.shtml

 

[mfried]

Other than the switch hitting, he reminds me of this guy:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillto02.shtml

After all the utility player talk, someone has finally identified a real precedent.  I would go so far as to say Boggs is BROCKHOLT'S ceiling and Tony Phillips is slightly above his basement.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

That's a bold statement.

 

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

To say nothing of his ceiling being Boggs.

 

[jscola85]

If you flip-flopped Holt's K% and BB%, then you have a guy who looks close to Wade Boggs.  Otherwise?  Not even remotely close...