Given his age, arm talent and development thus far, I think he's got a decent floor and likely to not be close to the worst QB in the league. Nathan Peterman still exists.
What do you want Pats to do with #3?
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Going from the #3 pick to 8-10 wins in 2 years, with a productive rookie and 2nd year QB isn't status quo.
I don't know how anyone can follow this sport and say with a straight face that an incoming QB has a floor that is anything other than "really really really bad".Given his age, arm talent and development thus far, I think he's got a decent floor and likely to not be close to the worst QB in the league. Nathan Peterman still exists.
I think Daniels could be a pro bowl QB if he fixes his: processing and patience in the pocket and learned how to avoid hits scrambling. But his processing and pocket management is so unrefined and underdeveloped right now I don't see how someone would want to bet on that. The LSU offense actually has multiple play concepts that get the post safety to vacate and then run a crosser or dig or some sort of in-breaker behind to fill that space. Dude basically never waited for it. He put up massive scrambling numbers but the reality is he left a ton of passing yards on the table to do so. He became a 1-read and go guy most of the time or when he did progress it was rushed and ineffective. He also had two of the best WRs in college and both guys gave him a lot of separation and easy/open looks. I am going to have a high day 2 kind of grade on him or very late round 1 depending on how good the other positions are. You could put him in a situation like the 2022 Eagles and he might have a Hurts kind of year. I think the Commies are a good fit for his skillset and have a decent roster situation. His processing is sub-par for a 5th year player in college. I find it unlikely he gets better in the pros for you to feel good about taking him at 1,2. Hurts was a 2nd rounder for a reason.
I think it is being hyped up by analysts because analysts view physical traits as paramount and because the best QBs right now are all these dynamic freaks who can win in or out of structure. Lamar went 32. Mahomes went 10th. Watson 12th. But this 2021, 2023, and I predict this year we will have 3 QBs all going in the top 4 and like in 2021 we will likely see 4 or maybe even 5 in the first round this year (my guess is 4). Guys like Mahomes and Lamar were not traditionally viewed as the prototype. Now they are who is in vogue. As there are a lot of guys like them in college these days people like Jayden Daniels is probably going to go 1,2 when he would have been a day 2 guy 6-7 years ago. Daniels might be successful but he is nowhere near the pocket passer Lamar was coming out. Although I say that and the league has always liked big arm, big body, tall, athletic QBs. Drake Maye is probably someone the league likes from the dawn of modern football to now.
Also analysts seem to always find 1-2-3 QBs they have a 1st round grade on. You saw a bunch of analysts have multiple first round grades on guys in 2022. Shit, Thor Nystrom stuck his neck out at 1,1 for Malik Willis. I guess the thinking is well the NFL almost always drafts multiple QBs in the first round so we better find the guys who we think best match up to that?
It pisses me off how cavalier people are about how difficult it is for a QB to succeed and for QBs to develop. I am ok but terrified with Drake Maye at 3. Be sober about the risks! Sure seems like Mayo's comments indicate the Patriots are being sober about it.
This is correct. You can't predict who will succeed and who won't. You can just observe their flaws, realize all draft QB prospects are terrible odds, HT Super Nomario, and hope yours is the right one. It's like picking a religion. I've done better than average in terms of guys I would avoid and guys I would take at the position. Even with my biggest misses like Josh Allen who I said I would take in the 3rd/4th round I noted he had an extremely high ceiling. There are years I get things more right than others but that's the nature of a SSS.
But for shits and giggles here are the guys, since 2017, I have either directly said I liked in round 1 or had a first round grade on, 7.75 or higher. I will also show you which guys I didn't have a first round grade on who went in the first. The receipts are here but since there is like 3 pages of them and that would be spam let me just recap in the spoiler below. TLDR: I am 14/21 since 2017 when I started actually watching film and doing deep dives on my own. A lot of that is luck and landing spot but who knows... maybe over time I will show I am slightly above average guessing? Probably not.
I will star the guys who I had a 7.75 on. To be fair I didn't positionally adjust my old boards back then even though I believed in positional value. I just didn't know how to. But last year I did and my 1,1 was a 7.75, Anthony Richardson, and then Stroud, a 7.99 even though I had 8+ guys at other positions. If you retroactively take my positional weights you can see how all the 7.75 QBs are first rounders. I had some takes then I wouldn't have now like I like Mahomes at 12 but not in the top 10. If you'd take a guy at 12 you'd take him in the top 10!
"7.75: Unique Potential. Pro bowl traits who needs critical technical development and consistency." These are the classic high risk/high reward guys like Drake Maye.
Guys I got right: this list is guys who have worked out who I had a good grade on or guys who didn't work out who I did not like. In draft year order. The guys in () are guys I did not have a 1st round equivalent grade on.
Mahomes, Watson, (Trubiski), (Haskins), Jackson, (Darnold), Burrow, Tua, Herbert*, Love*, Lawrence, (Mac Jones), (Pickett).
Guys I got wrong: Guys who worked out who I didn't have a high grade on or guys who didn't work out who I did have a high grade on.
Murray - I was out on him due to size, Mayfield, (Allen), Rosen, Fields, Wilson*, Lance*.
Jury is out on the 2023 guys but I had a 7.75 or better on AR, Stroud, and Young.
Of the guys I commented on so far I have been 14 right, 7 wrong. Part of that is just luck and landing situation.
I never posted that I was not a Daniel Jones fan so I won't give myself credit for it. I didn't really cover the 2019 class much minus one post on Haskins and a retroactive post on why I didn't like Murray (size reasons).
If you just bet against all of these guys you would have gone 11/21 as 10 have busted and 11 have hit recently. So, I am slightly better than average at predicting this so far before the draft and before I knew their landing spot or how much rope they got or who their supporting cast would be or who their coaches were, etc. That is probably why the evaluation of what they are good at vs what they need to improve on and their landing spot is more important than a grade.
I can't tell you if Drake Maye is going to hit. I can just tell you what he is good at, what he needs to improve on, and what super powers or potential fatal flaws he has.
one last thing: 7.75 grades are volatile. These are guys who are even higher risk to me. But that's just the world you live in when you need a franchise QB. You should be open to taking some risks. I have gone back and forth 100 times on if I feel like Maye is worth it at 3 but I think he is even if he scares the shit out of me.
"7.75: Unique Potential. Pro bowl traits who needs critical technical development and consistency." These are the classic high risk/high reward guys like Drake Maye.
Guys I got right: this list is guys who have worked out who I had a good grade on or guys who didn't work out who I did not like. In draft year order. The guys in () are guys I did not have a 1st round equivalent grade on.
Mahomes, Watson, (Trubiski), (Haskins), Jackson, (Darnold), Burrow, Tua, Herbert*, Love*, Lawrence, (Mac Jones), (Pickett).
Guys I got wrong: Guys who worked out who I didn't have a high grade on or guys who didn't work out who I did have a high grade on.
Murray - I was out on him due to size, Mayfield, (Allen), Rosen, Fields, Wilson*, Lance*.
Jury is out on the 2023 guys but I had a 7.75 or better on AR, Stroud, and Young.
Of the guys I commented on so far I have been 14 right, 7 wrong. Part of that is just luck and landing situation.
I never posted that I was not a Daniel Jones fan so I won't give myself credit for it. I didn't really cover the 2019 class much minus one post on Haskins and a retroactive post on why I didn't like Murray (size reasons).
If you just bet against all of these guys you would have gone 11/21 as 10 have busted and 11 have hit recently. So, I am slightly better than average at predicting this so far before the draft and before I knew their landing spot or how much rope they got or who their supporting cast would be or who their coaches were, etc. That is probably why the evaluation of what they are good at vs what they need to improve on and their landing spot is more important than a grade.
I can't tell you if Drake Maye is going to hit. I can just tell you what he is good at, what he needs to improve on, and what super powers or potential fatal flaws he has.
one last thing: 7.75 grades are volatile. These are guys who are even higher risk to me. But that's just the world you live in when you need a franchise QB. You should be open to taking some risks. I have gone back and forth 100 times on if I feel like Maye is worth it at 3 but I think he is even if he scares the shit out of me.
BTW a guy like Mac Jones, I believe anyway, succeeds in SF and I look like an idiot hating him. But he landed here, his situation deteriorated and they did nothing to address the flaws we knew were in his game coming in. Or, who knows, maybe he flames out there but at the very least we can all agree he would have had a better chance to succeed there vs here. So even though I was technically right on Mac's outcome my actual writeup about him was WAY more important than the result and his landing spot had an enormous impact on his success or lack thereof. This is all extraordinarily difficult.
If you all are interested how about a film review of Daniels, JJM, and Maye on the Saturday before the draft? I can host it on my corporate zoom and prepare 30 minutes on each guy with cutups to show you strengths and weaknesses. The only caveat here is if my partner goes into labor early I will have to call it off. Which... I mean speaking of things you can't predict, right? (something pretty funny and fitting about me having my 3rd boy on 4/25 - C-Section scheduled when the Pats pick 1-3).
I can do the schedule in advance so you know when I will get to each QB. I welcome questions and interaction. I love to do this kind of stuff.
DM me if you are interested and let me know what times on Saturday, 4/20 you are interested in so I can schedule it for when the most of the 1-2 of you are interested can join. Heh, 4/20. Nice.
If you all are interested how about a film review of Daniels, JJM, and Maye on the Saturday before the draft? I can host it on my corporate zoom and prepare 30 minutes on each guy with cutups to show you strengths and weaknesses. The only caveat here is if my partner goes into labor early I will have to call it off. Which... I mean speaking of things you can't predict, right? (something pretty funny and fitting about me having my 3rd boy on 4/25 - C-Section scheduled when the Pats pick 1-3).
I can do the schedule in advance so you know when I will get to each QB. I welcome questions and interaction. I love to do this kind of stuff.
DM me if you are interested and let me know what times on Saturday, 4/20 you are interested in so I can schedule it for when the most of the 1-2 of you are interested can join
. Heh, 4/20. Nice.
Last edited:
I think this is the caee for Maye:
View: https://twitter.com/tkyles39/status/1776638912871444697
Been trying to articulate why I like Maye more than every QB not named Caleb Williams and why I believe in him more than other boom-bust prospects Think it comes down to the fact that, while he needs to be more consistent, I don’t see anything he CAN’T do, physically or mentally. He can throw with anticipation, find his hots, use pre and post-snap indicators to punish defenses, make free rushers miss, throw accurately and with velocity/touch from any platform, and create outside of structure Needs to reign in the heroics (which are hard to blame him for considering how awful UNC’s scheme was) and the lower-body mechanics must be more consistent, but those are correctable if he commits to fixing them Can’t teach his instincts or physical ability
View: https://twitter.com/tkyles39/status/1776638912871444697
Been trying to articulate why I like Maye more than every QB not named Caleb Williams and why I believe in him more than other boom-bust prospects Think it comes down to the fact that, while he needs to be more consistent, I don’t see anything he CAN’T do, physically or mentally. He can throw with anticipation, find his hots, use pre and post-snap indicators to punish defenses, make free rushers miss, throw accurately and with velocity/touch from any platform, and create outside of structure Needs to reign in the heroics (which are hard to blame him for considering how awful UNC’s scheme was) and the lower-body mechanics must be more consistent, but those are correctable if he commits to fixing them Can’t teach his instincts or physical ability
Yeah, sorry John, wasn't trying to be a dick. You know I respect your opinion. As you said, all people can do is look at performance and tape. We have no idea how that person learns and adjusts their flaws or reacts to coaching.
I didn’t think you were. I think you’re right.
I’ve tried to work with some of you here on which guys are “safer” than not. It’s just impossible to bucket guys.
The only folks I think were more or less safe were: Luck, Lawrence, Burrow, and Stroud. 4 people in 12 years. You can’t really wait for a guy like that to come along and anticipate having a pick there.
Yeah, I think if you have the #3 pick, and you desperately need a franchise QB, and there are QBs out there to be drafted that have franchise QB potential - even with the high bust rate at the position - you go with best QB you think you can get. You just gotta roll the dice there and hope you get the right guy.
The only alternative, IMO, is if you get an absolute godfather offer, like from Minnesota: #3 for #11, #23, a 2025 first, a 2025 second, and a 2026 first. Something insane like that. Then you drop back to #11, and then see if you can use your draft capital to move back up to get a guy like McCarthy, hoping he's the guy, or you try totally roll the dice on a Penix or Nix, and use the rest of the draft to take shots at OT, WR, and other huge positions of need and try like crazy to just load up on talent throughout the whole roster.
The only alternative, IMO, is if you get an absolute godfather offer, like from Minnesota: #3 for #11, #23, a 2025 first, a 2025 second, and a 2026 first. Something insane like that. Then you drop back to #11, and then see if you can use your draft capital to move back up to get a guy like McCarthy, hoping he's the guy, or you try totally roll the dice on a Penix or Nix, and use the rest of the draft to take shots at OT, WR, and other huge positions of need and try like crazy to just load up on talent throughout the whole roster.
Well, Dugger is back. And I still think you are downplaying the returns of Gonzalez and Judon.
Excellent news! SS has been the key to Belichick defenses the last decade+, so this is a big deal.
Mike Giardi has them taking McCarthy
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2024/04/07/giardi-mock-draft-20-sees-patriots-get-qb-then-wheel-and-deal?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2024/04/07/giardi-mock-draft-20-sees-patriots-get-qb-then-wheel-and-deal?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
As much as I would love the Pats to be aggressive and move up to add a tackle or WR in late round 1, I don’t think their off-season strategy suggests they will.
It’s a paper thin roster as is, with Judon, J.Jones and Andrews entering or already in their decline years. Judon, Barmore and Peppers (and Uche, Stevenson and others) are pending free agents. All the bargain bin guys they signed this off-season are on short deals. On top of that, the messaging has clearly been this is a multi year rebuild and fans need to be patient etc.
I just don’t see how they can trade away picks given the number of holes that already exist and the even greater number of holes they will have next year.
Well who knows what defense Covington and Mayo will run. I wouldn’t assume that it will be a “Belichick defense”
Thought that I’m not sure I’ve seen raised: If the Pats take J.J.McCarthy at #3, I’ll be very excited, not because I think that I personally know shit, but because that would almost certainly mean that they are very excited about him. And if they’re excited, then I’m excited.
Plus, if he’s really good, that means a lot of draftniks don’t know shit, and that’s always fun.
Agreed on this. Too many holes to consolidate picks. There will be FA money available next year too, and some problems can be solved there. But just too many holes.
I mean, he's getting close to a consensus top 6 pick so not sure how it reflects on the "draftniks".Thought that I’m not sure I’ve seen raised: If the Pats take J.J.McCarthy at #3, I’ll be very excited, not because I think that I personally know shit, but because that would almost certainly mean that they are very excited about him. And if they’re excited, then I’m excited.
Plus, if he’s really good, that means a lot of draftniks don’t know shit, and that’s always fun.
If they take McCarthy at 3, it could mean they are excited, or it could mean the guy they really wanted went 2 and they feel they have to take a lesser QB prospect at 3 for whatever reason (job security, owner pressure, fear of looking bad if he works elsewhere, etc.). McCarthy at 3 doesn't really tell us much either way other than that Wolf likes him more than whichever QB they pass on (Maye/Daniels).
I'm reserving my right to throw what could only be described as a hissy fit if they pass on Maye for McCarthy. I think between McCarthy and Daniels it's just a matter of what they value more and preference, though, so if Maye is off the board (as he was in this mock), eh, fine.
Giardi kind of admitted on a podcast that he changes up his mocks to keep it interesting, so not sure he actually thinks they’ll pick McCarthy.
I also doubt they will, but I would not be against a relatively minor consolidation of draft capital if they can find a starter at an important position like WR or OT. The roster is thin, but it also lacks top end talent. A two nickels for a dime trade is not a terrible choice in that situation. Just need to make a good deal for the right player.
I suppose if they think the jump from 34 to 27 (in this proposed trade) is really a nickel to a dime. I don’t think it makes a ton of sense for a WR given the depth of the class. Maybe at OT if there’s a run on them and options start to become limited
Actually it probably makes more sense, if they’re going to move up, to be aggressive and go farther up and hope for a true “nickel”. Unless someone they love slides, it’s hard to see too much differentiation in talent between the late 20s and top of round 2. At least, enough difference to give away other picks where you’re possibly replacing practice squad caliber or worse in house talent with mid round prospects.
The roster can always use top end talent, and this roster particularly needs an infusion on offense. But the offense is so barren of talent that picks in the 2nd and 3rd round are an upgrade. Burning say 68 to move up 15 picks from 34 feels like a bad idea. I think that they can find difference-makers for this particular roster at both 68 and 103, given that the depth in this draft is exactly the sort of positions that we need. And there are absolutely impact guys at 34.
I know nothing, I get it, but: passing on Drake Maye to take J.J. McCarthy would be fucking infuriating to me. And a massive risk for them. Thinking outside the box on this could pay off, I guess, but I'd much rather take the guy with high A+ upside than a solid B/B+, if that's even what McCarthy is. Playing in the rarefied air of a Mahomes/Allen/Lamar/Burrow takes a big swing, and I don't even think Maye is that risky a swing. But going with the presumably "safer" J.J. McCarthy would be such a letdown. These reports are making me crazy. Watch ALL the game tapes, not just highlights. Maye is on a different level, IMO. I could be wrong, but...this makes me all kinds of oogy.
Maybe click the link and see who Giardi drafted 2nd...it might help you not go crazy
For me, I've been beating the drum for the Pats to do something somewhat similar to what Giardi did, except it's to move up from R3 back into R2.
Take QB at 3 (Maye/Daniels/McCarthy), the best WR or OT in R2 and then trade back into R3 to get WR or OT, whichever you didn't take earlier in R2. Obviously, I'm forcing picks at certain positions, which I don't like to do, but this is my pie in the sky, ideal scenario if the board breaks the Pats way.
If we take Giardi's mock as how the draft would unfold, I'd be looking at Pearsall/Franklin/Coleman/Polk/Worthy in R2 and then the trade back into R2 to get P. Paul. If his trade to move up to get Paul is realistic, I think the Pats could handle the cost (68 + 103 for 57 + 174).
This approach gets them 3 top 60 guys at QB/OT/WR, their 3 most glaring needs, and it doesn't really cost all that much to make it happen. They'll still have other holes they'll need to fill, and who knows if the guys they take will pan out, but I'd be pretty excited to get something like that out of the first 2 rounds.
I don't like the 1st trade.... I think the guys in the range he moved up to and the guys at 34 are too similar. I do like moving up from 68 if you like an OT or WR (I usually end up seeing Suamataia at 34 and then thinking about a move up into the late 50s for a WR like Pearsall, Legette, Wilson, etc.)Maybe click the link and see who Giardi drafted 2nd...it might help you not go crazy
For me, I've been beating the drum for the Pats to do something somewhat similar to what Giardi did, except it's to move up from R3 back into R2.
Take QB at 3 (Maye/Daniels/McCarthy), the best WR or OT in R2 and then trade back into R3 to get WR or OT, whichever you didn't take earlier in R2. Obviously, I'm forcing picks at certain positions, which I don't like to do, but this is my pie in the sky, ideal scenario if the board breaks the Pats way.
If we take Giardi's mock as how the draft would unfold, I'd be looking at Pearsall/Franklin/Coleman/Polk/Worthy in R2 and then the trade back into R2 to get P. Paul. If his trade to move up to get Paul is realistic, I think the Pats could handle the cost (68 + 103 for 57 + 174).
This approach gets them 3 top 60 guys at QB/OT/WR, their 3 most glaring needs, and it doesn't really cost all that much to make it happen. They'll still have other holes they'll need to fill, and who knows if the guys they take will pan out, but I'd be pretty excited to get something like that out of the first 2 rounds.
The Athletic has an article up with a few NFL scouts giving grades on the mechanics of the QB prospects. They score them out of 5 and give Caleb Williams a 4.9.
Then they go Rattler 4.0, Nix 3.9, Penix and Daniels 3.8, McCarthy and Maye 3.75. Basically: they all need work.
I am coming around to if they trade out they trade out.
Then they go Rattler 4.0, Nix 3.9, Penix and Daniels 3.8, McCarthy and Maye 3.75. Basically: they all need work.
I am coming around to if they trade out they trade out.
Well, it says this about Maye, which is kinda important:
That doesn't make me want to trade back at all.
unless he goes 2.
I'm really a little baffled that so many people so early locked into "Jayden Daniels is going #2", I get that Schefter recently floated it too, but... seems very weird that they would lock in on the 24 year old who arguably has a much lower ceiling and has 1.5 years of production so early. It's not like WAS is MIN and has a ready made offense.
Yeah. I mean SMU basically said he’s a project but very arguably worth the shot. Its not inconsistent with his take.
Monday into Tuesday. Hope this means he’s going 2.
View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1777849477186941147?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1777849477186941147?s=46
Same thing he did here, came in went to dinner with folks the night before then did the stadium visit and meetings the next day.
I just read through that thread the other night and my main takeaway was that nobody can play QB in the NFL.
I think this is right. Defenses in the NFL are all so unbelievably fast and complicated that they have an advantage. Better athletes seem to be self selecting into positions like edge rusher. Consequently there aren’t a lot of even good offensive lines in the league. All of this adds up to making it very hard to play QB in the league. There’s no room for error. Best case scenario is you draft the next Pat Mahomes. Most likelh scenario is you draft the next Zach Wilson. And the only other model is building super teams around guys like Hurts or Purdy.
Aside from the playoffs where you get the top QBs playing each other there’s a ton of ugly football each week especially if you like offense.
I don't care at all about mock draft articles. I'm more interested in the evaluation of players by people who know what it takes to play in the NFL.
Two QB evaluators I respect do not like Drake Maye early in the 1st at all. Those evaluators are Chris Simms and J.T. O'Sullivan.
Here are two podcasts where they discuss the shortcomings of Drake Maye. I think the entire podcasts are worth listening to, but if you wanted to focus on Drake Maye I included the time stamp.
Chris Simms from March 6th.
Go to 1:37:30 for the Maye discussion.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEAeopuBfU8
J.T. O’Sullivan from March 30th.
Go to 16:57 for the Maye discussion.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qICs_ZGLfrA
While some will say Chris Simms is a bit of a hot take guy, J.T. O'Sullivan is 100% a straight shooter (in my opinion anyway).
Two QB evaluators I respect do not like Drake Maye early in the 1st at all. Those evaluators are Chris Simms and J.T. O'Sullivan.
Here are two podcasts where they discuss the shortcomings of Drake Maye. I think the entire podcasts are worth listening to, but if you wanted to focus on Drake Maye I included the time stamp.
Chris Simms from March 6th.
Go to 1:37:30 for the Maye discussion.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEAeopuBfU8
J.T. O’Sullivan from March 30th.
Go to 16:57 for the Maye discussion.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qICs_ZGLfrA
While some will say Chris Simms is a bit of a hot take guy, J.T. O'Sullivan is 100% a straight shooter (in my opinion anyway).
And J.T. just put out his rankings on his own channel (April 8th). He has Drake Maye ranked #4 of the 2024 QB's (below Williams, Daniels, and McCarthy).
18:38 in the video.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5VHHXcorWA
18:38 in the video.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5VHHXcorWA
Sims is a hack.
O'Sullivan is a guy whose work I like. I think conext is important, if you watch his video he stresses a bunch of times.... he has Maye as 4th in terms of play RIGHT NOW, he isn't really projecting. He mentions in the Maye section that he has higher potential than Daniels and McCarthy, and he wouldn't be surprised if he ended up the best QB in the draft if you fixed his footwork/consistency issues. That's probably in line with many people in terms of Maye needs a bunch of work, but he's just got a much higher ceiling, where Daniels for example the cake is pretty baked.
I love JT, think he has the best QB breakdowns in the business, but he has always overvalued mechanical polish and footwork in his analysis, and I feel recent history has shown those issues to be correctable to a degree (I'd even argue three out of the four best QBs in football in Mahomes, Allen and Lamar all came into the league with significant mechanics and accuracy concerns which have been fixed). Maye absolutely lacks in that department in contrast to Daniels and McCarthy, I just think the traits he has are much harder to teach, if teachable at all. None of the concerns put forth by JT or Simms are made up, those are real issues with Maye, it's all a matter of how much weight you give his flaws in contrast to his strengths and how fixable do you believe them to be at the next level. I love his arm talent, athleticism, size, aggressiveness, ability and willigness to make all kinds of throws, his deep ball accuracy, his ability to create out of structure. The footwork is bad, when he misses he sometimes sprays the ball really far off target, I don't like how much he leans on backing away/dovetailing when dealing with pressure, and he absolutely has a lot of heat check to his game, he tried out a ton of dumb shit because he knew he had the ability to fit balls anywhere (and people can look at that type of moxie and attitude two ways, I particularly believe it's much, much easier to rein guys in than to make Derek Carr stop going to his checkdowns early or teach Justin Fields to throw to the intermediate middle of the field). Maye is in the eye of the beholder, how much you value what he is versus the likelihood of unlocking what he could be could vary greatly. I'd bet on the traits all day long, I think he has the physical skills and mentality of a playmaker and that's the guy I want at that position, especially considering his processing to my layman's eyes isn't bad at all at this stage, especially for a 21 year old. I saw him manipulating defenders with his eyes a lot more than I expected of a guy considered that raw, for instance. I think his understanding of leverage and coverages is pretty solid.
What I take away from all of this is that you can pick apart any guy to the point where you would shy away from drafting him; and that even the most perfect QB prospects don't necessarily translate to being a top 5 QB (thinking Luck and Lawrence).
Ultimately, you have to roll the dice, like KC, Buffalo, and Baltimore all did; unless you try to go the SF model, which has been successful, but has also lost to the elite QB twice in the Super Bowl, at least partially due to their own mediocre QB play (and speaking out of the other side of my mouth, we saw our own GOAT lose to mediocre QBs 3x in the Super Bowl).
Ultimately, you have to roll the dice, like KC, Buffalo, and Baltimore all did; unless you try to go the SF model, which has been successful, but has also lost to the elite QB twice in the Super Bowl, at least partially due to their own mediocre QB play (and speaking out of the other side of my mouth, we saw our own GOAT lose to mediocre QBs 3x in the Super Bowl).
I don't place a lot of stock in QB evaluation from people who haven't either played it, scouted it, or coached it at the NFL level. Which is why I wouldn't pay two cents for Mel Kiper's opinions.
Awesome, Nate Tice is a former NFL scout and coach who has Maye ranked above even Caleb Williams as a "purple chip" prospect. I wasn't interested in doing a battle of the curriculums, just sharing what I thought was good analysis. You're free to take or leave whatever you want.