What do you want Pats to do with #3?

[Dogman]

I don't place a lot of stock in QB evaluation from people who haven't either played it, scouted it, or coached it at the NFL level. Which is why I wouldn't pay two cents for Mel Kiper's opinions.

Chris Simms was a terrible QB when he played and his mechanics/footwork were terrible, his arm mediocre, he couldn't process the field or read defenses. He is now a hack who is paid to throw around garbage, irrational/nonsenisical opinions, and hot takes to drive ratings. Neither his playing days nor his current gig make him worthwhile as an evaluator in any way. But, you will listen to him because he had a shitty NFL career (and likely your own Maye bias) despite not being able to do a single thing that makes a QB successful? Ok.

Honestly, that sounds like a Chris Simms hot take.

 

[Auger34]

Well, he has scouted it, no?

Yes, he has. For a hell of a long time. I am not a huge fan of Kiper but calling him out for "not scouting" is ludicrous. Almost as ludicrous as holding up Chris Simms as some sort of great QB evaluator

 

[DJnVa]

Was a little bored today, and was looking back at some older NFL draft analysis to see how guys were talked about and stumbled across a Peter King article regarding Manning vs. Leaf.

A few nuggets:
--Peyton Manning's best college passer rating is lower than Drake Maye's from this season (I present this ONLY has a sign of how game has changed).
--Bill Walsh said he wouldn't take either guy first, would take someone else and draft Griese in the 2nd.
--There was pre-draft talk that Manning couldn't throw the deep ball.
--They said Leaf going to SD would at least get him better coaching (Kevin Gilbride and June Jones) than Manning would get in Indy (Mora and Arians)
--Walsh said Manning didn't drop back as quickly as he should.
--There was theory that Manning was more pro-ready but Leaf would be better in 5 years because of arm strength.
--Manning's tight window throw confidence could be issue in NFL.
--Manning's problem in college was decision-making against all-out blitzes.

 

[Arroyoyo]

While I agree on some of the analysts’ takes on Maye’s horrible footwork (it really is a mess, so if we draft him we have to be sure it’s correctable), I agree more passionately with the “Simms is a clown” crowd.

He’s easily my least favorite analyst out there, followed closely by Nick Wright.

Every time I see Simms’ face the first thought that crosses my mind is “that’s the face of truly horrendous nepotism in America.”

If his last name wasn’t Simms he 1) May have never been drafted, 2) Wouldn’t be an analyst, because nothing he ever did on an NFL field makes you think he’s credible.

To top it off, he comes across as laughably egotistical and self-important. His career passer rating is 69 and in seven seasons of floating around NFL rosters because he’s Phil Simms’ kid, he threw for all of 3,100 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions.

As I said earlier: short of maybe politicians’ kids, he’s THE face of American nepotism. High-profile opportunity after opportunity yet below average at everything he does.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

Awesome, Nate Tice is a former NFL scout and coach who has Maye ranked above even Caleb Williams as a "purple chip" prospect. I wasn't interested in doing a battle of the curriculums, just sharing what I thought was good analysis. You're free to take or leave whatever you want.

Tice (who is Mike Tice’s son) has been a Maye fan since the end of last season (2022), ranking him as a prospect with Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud. Not saying he’s right or wrong, but he’s been consistent in putting Maye at the top of his QB list.

The PFF guys are down on Daniels for his inability to move his feet to extend plays (once he starts moving, he runs). He has an ungodly high sack rate (which is common among bad NFL QBs), and his percentage of dropbacks that result in passes thrown is historically low. Those seem like more than mechanical fixes to me-that’s asking a guy to adopt a new style of play.

If Maye is there I hope they take him. If it is Daniels….I’m not as sold. If its Daniels and the Vikings offer 11, 23 and some other sweeteners I’m at least listening.

 

[Arroyoyo]

The biggest concern I have with this draft is many are assuming there’s a huge gap between Daniels/Maye and Penix/Nix/McCarthy and outside of trusting the talking heads in the media, I’m not sure why.

I see pros and cons across all of them, the possibility for all of them to flame out, but also the possibility for all of them to perform well as pros. Daniels doesn’t seem consistent enough from the pocket and will make you hold your breath every time he tucks and bolts downfield, Maye has horrible footwork, Penix has trouble with intermediate throws, I’m not overly confident in Nix’s ability to quickly run through his reads, McCarthy doesn’t have a ton of time literally under center.

Some of those may be bigger issues than others, but all of these guys, IMO, need time to develop. I’d sit all of them for at least a year.

With that said, the biggest reason I’m in the “trade back” group is if you end up with Penix or Nix at, say, the Vikings’ #23, but you also add at least two more first round picks (one this year, one next year), I think that value is GREATER than the value gained between Maye/Daniels vs one of Penix/Nix/McCarthy.

Add in a second rounder next year (if you trade with the Vikings, because they lost theirs this year) and I think it’s better value than drafting Maye and the 7th or 8th best receiver in the draft at the top of the second round.

I like Maye, but I lean away from thinking he’s as valuable as what they may be able to get by trading #3. I worry he’s a guy that’ll take 3 years to develop into a reliable QB1.

 

[j44thor]

The biggest concern I have with this draft is many are assuming there’s a huge gap between Daniels/Maye and Penix/Nix/McCarthy and outside of trusting the talking heads in the media, I’m not sure why.

I see pros and cons across all of them, the possibility for all of them to flame out, but also the possibility for all of them to perform well as pros. Daniels doesn’t seem consistent enough from the pocket and will make you hold your breath every time he tucks and bolts downfield, Maye has horrible footwork, Penix has trouble with intermediate throws, I’m not overly confident in Nix’s ability to quickly run through his reads, McCarthy doesn’t have a ton of time literally under center.

Some of those may be bigger issues than others, but all of these guys, IMO, need time to develop. I’d sit all of them for at least a year.

With that said, the biggest reason I’m in the “trade back” group is if you end up with Penix or Nix at, say, the Vikings’ #23, but you also add at least two more first round picks (one this year, one next year), I think that value is GREATER than the value gained between Maye/Daniels vs one of Penix/Nix/McCarthy.

Add in a second rounder next year (if you trade with the Vikings, because they lost theirs this year) and I think it’s better value than drafting Maye and the 7th or 8th best receiver in the draft at the top of the second round.

I like Maye, but I lean away from thinking he’s as valuable as what they may be able to get by trading #3. I worry he’s a guy that’ll take 3 years to develop into a reliable QB1.

I'm personally looking at the draft as Maye>McCarthy>>>Daniels>>Penix/Nix.
I think ultimately Daniels is closer to Penix/Nix than M&M mostly due to age but also limitations. Daniels/Penix/Nix all started playing QB in college before Covid existed and all would have been draft afterthoughts after their Jr years, at best day 3 fliers like the Clayton Tune's of the world. All 3 took massive advantage of playing 1-2 extra years in QB friendly programs with elite WR corps. I don't think there is that much projection left in their game compared to Maye/McCarthy who have only started 2yrs in more pro-style offenses.

If McAdoo and AVP are sold on whoever is left between Maye/McCarthy at 3 I'll be fine with that. If they are both there and they trade down but end up with one of them I'm also good. If they take Daniels at 3 that will give me pause. I think Daniels is going to fall draft night just too many question marks to his game for someone his age.

 

[DJnVa]

I don't think there is that much projection left in their game compared to Maye/McCarthy who have only started 2yrs in more pro-style offenses.

I know it's been mentioned in various ways, but age up Maye 2 years, let him play in front of the LSU OL and throw to Nabors and Thomas and what would we project his numbers to look like? That's why I give him edge over Daniels, but I would still be really excited if it's Daniels. McCarthy, less so, but at that point I'd be trusting the FO did all the work and are confident.

 

[Auger34]

While I agree on some of the analysts’ takes on Maye’s horrible footwork (it really is a mess, so if we draft him we have to be sure it’s correctable), I agree more passionately with the “Simms is a clown” crowd.

He’s easily my least favorite analyst out there, followed closely by Nick Wright.

Every time I see Simms’ face the first thought that crosses my mind is “that’s the face of truly horrendous nepotism in America.”

If his last name wasn’t Simms he 1) May have never been drafted, 2) Wouldn’t be an analyst, because nothing he ever did on an NFL field makes you think he’s credible.

To top it off, he comes across as laughably egotistical and self-important. His career passer rating is 69 and in seven seasons of floating around NFL rosters because he’s Phil Simms’ kid, he threw for all of 3,100 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions.

As I said earlier: short of maybe politicians’ kids, he’s THE face of American nepotism. High-profile opportunity after opportunity yet below average at everything he does.

When you have a chance please google "Chris Simms Dolphins fan" and watch the video of him with Mike Florio.

It is one of the most tone deaf, outright crazy videos I have ever seen. Simms argues that a GoFundMe for the family of a Dolphins fan who died is a bad thing because......the fan was "negative" to Simms on twitter.

I honestly can't believe Simms still has a job on TV after that video

 

[Jimbodandy]

When you have a chance please google "Chris Simms Dolphins fan" and watch the video of him with Mike Florio.

It is one of the most tone deaf, outright crazy videos I have ever seen. Simms argues that a GoFundMe for the family of a Dolphins fan who died is a bad thing because......the fan was "negative" to Simms on twitter.

I honestly can't believe Simms still has a job on TV after that video

It might not be widely known what a bad and dumb person Chris Simms is, but that doesn't make it less true.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Was a little bored today, and was looking back at some older NFL draft analysis to see how guys were talked about and stumbled across a Peter King article regarding Manning vs. Leaf.

A few nuggets:
--Bill Walsh said he wouldn't take either guy first, would take someone else and draft Griese in the 2nd.

See, this is my issue with the "trade back and draft a QB later" idea. It's easy to look at these guys as 'prospects' and not actual people. Trading back to take a slightly worse QB prospect while gaining picks makes sense in a vacuum, but how often do these second tier prospects actually work out relative to the top crop of QBs in a draft?

Whats interesting (maybe just to me) is that this specific use case - a team trading down in the 1st round, and then drafting a QB later in the draft - happens about once a year. Of those trades, only one - Baltimore traded #16 (Edmonds) and drafted Jackson at #32 - has a team traded back, drafted a QB, and had the QB become a valuable player.

More specific to the Patriots, teams trading out of a 1st round spot that is used on a QB haven't drafted a QB in that same draft since 2017. I assume people are traumatized by the 2017 results (see below).

Over the last decade, here are the trades where a team trades down in the first and drafts a QB in the same draft:

2022
Washington trades #11 (Olave) and drafted Howell in the 4th.

2021
Minnesota trades #14 (Vera Tucker) and drafted Kellen Mond in the 2nd.

2019
Denver trades #10 (Drew Bush) and drafted Drew Lock in the 2nd.

2018
Baltimore drafts Jackson

2017
San Fran traded the #2 pick (Trubisky) and drafted CJ Beathard in the 3rd.

Buffalo traded the #10 pick (Mahomes) and drafted Peterman in the 5th.

Cleveland traded the #12 pick (Watson) and drafted Deshone Kizer in the 2nd.

2016
Cleveland trades #2 (Wentz) and drafted Kessler in the 3rd.

2014
Cleveland trades #4 (Watkins) and drafted Manziel with the 22nd pick.

Arizona trades #20 (Brandin Cooks) and drafted Logan Thomas in the 4th.

So, if a team needs a QB, they almost always tend to keep the pick and swing for the fences. If they do opt to trade the pick, the QB (with the exception of Jackson) ends up being of little value to the team. I guess this means if the Patriots do trade back, hope it's for the WR and T we need, not the QB who will most likely not be on the roster by the end of his contract.

 

[Trotman Nixon]

Yes, he has. For a hell of a long time. I am not a huge fan of Kiper but calling him out for "not scouting" is ludicrous. Almost as ludicrous as holding up Chris Simms as some sort of great QB evaluator

I was not aware of that. What team was he a scout for?

 

[Cellar-Door]

I was not aware of that. What team was he a scout for?

Briefly the Baltimore Colts.

But also, it's incredibly dumb to focus on guys who are failed NFL scouts or failed NFL QBs, because generally they aren't good at the job. Kiper and a number of others do this for a living, do it with far more depth, and they could easily get jobs with any NFL team, instead they make much much more money doing it for major publications/networks/data companies.

Mel Kiper is getting old, but he was miles ahead of most NFL teams as a scout in the 80s, he understood positional value earlier, media scouts and companies were way ahead of teams in terms of data analysis, projection modeling, etc. etc. One of the biggest takeaways of the last 2 to 3 decades in basically every sport is that the people who played it and the old-school lifers often don't actually understand what makes players good or teams successful. Moneyball in baseball, data analysis in basketball. It's not a coincidence that people outside the league in the NBA were on the idea that 3s are better than 2s like 10 years before the first execs started drafting for it.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I love JT, think he has the best QB breakdowns in the business, but he has always overvalued mechanical polish and footwork in his analysis, and I feel recent history has shown those issues to be correctable to a degree (I'd even argue three out of the four best QBs in football in Mahomes, Allen and Lamar all came into the league with significant mechanics and accuracy concerns which have been fixed). Maye absolutely lacks in that department in contrast to Daniels and McCarthy, I just think the traits he has are much harder to teach, if teachable at all. None of the concerns put forth by JT or Simms are made up, those are real issues with Maye, it's all a matter of how much weight you give his flaws in contrast to his strengths and how fixable do you believe them to be at the next level. I love his arm talent, athleticism, size, aggressiveness, ability and willigness to make all kinds of throws, his deep ball accuracy, his ability to create out of structure. The footwork is bad, when he misses he sometimes sprays the ball really far off target, I don't like how much he leans on backing away/dovetailing when dealing with pressure, and he absolutely has a lot of heat check to his game, he tried out a ton of dumb shit because he knew he had the ability to fit balls anywhere (and people can look at that type of moxie and attitude two ways, I particularly believe it's much, much easier to rein guys in than to make Derek Carr stop going to his checkdowns early or teach Justin Fields to throw to the intermediate middle of the field). Maye is in the eye of the beholder, how much you value what he is versus the likelihood of unlocking what he could be could vary greatly. I'd bet on the traits all day long, I think he has the physical skills and mentality of a playmaker and that's the guy I want at that position, especially considering his processing to my layman's eyes isn't bad at all at this stage, especially for a 21 year old. I saw him manipulating defenders with his eyes a lot more than I expected of a guy considered that raw, for instance. I think his understanding of leverage and coverages is pretty solid.

Jackson may or may not be one of the 3 or 4 best overall QB but he’s not one of the 3 or 4 best passers which is the relevant thing here. He’s gotten better but he’s still not a top tier thrower so I don’t know that he’s relevant to Maye at all.

 

[Trotman Nixon]

Briefly the Baltimore Colts.

But also, it's incredibly dumb to focus on guys who are failed NFL scouts or failed NFL QBs, because generally they aren't good at the job. Kiper and a number of others do this for a living, do it with far more depth, and they could easily get jobs with any NFL team, instead they make much much more money doing it for major publications/networks/data companies.

Baltimore Colts? How old is the guy? They left Baltimore in 1984.

I looked up his bio and only saw media jobs after college.

Look, you're free to listen to anyone you want. There is so much noise in the draft media industry I tune out those who have never been paid by a team to play, scout, or coach. It doesn't mean someone who played, scouted, or coached for an NFL team is right, but at least I know some NFL team paid them for their talent. As opposed to a bunch of so-called experts who watch some tape and prattle on about "upside potential."

I also will add I don't have a dog in this fight. I read the thread and saw a lot of Drake Maye fans and decided to post a couple of podcasts I had recently listened to that had a contrary opinion. I'm not a QB expert and don't play one on TV. Personally I hope all these guys have successful careers.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I don't place a lot of stock in QB evaluation from people who haven't either played it, scouted it, or coached it at the NFL level. Which is why I wouldn't pay two cents for Mel Kiper's opinions.

Not going to prop Kiper up as some sort of scouting genius but it’s strange that his opinion would be less valid than some random guy who “scouted at the nfl level”

Are you suggesting anyone who was on an NFL payroll as a scout by definition is better equipped to present draft evaluations than Kiper?regardless of that scout’s years of experience, success or even what they did as “professional scout”?

If professional scouts were the definitive authorities on prospects, there would be unanimous opinions and very low bust rates.

Bucky Brooks was a professional scout (and player albeit not QB) and I don’t see any reason his evaluation of players is any more valid than Kiper’s

 

[Cellar-Door]

Baltimore Colts? How old is the guy? They left Baltimore in 1984.

I looked up his bio and only saw media jobs after college.

Look, you're free to listen to anyone you want. There is so much noise in the draft media industry I tune out those who have never been paid by a team to play, scout, or coach. It doesn't mean someone who played, scouted, or coached for an NFL team is right, but at least I know some NFL team paid them for their talent. As opposed to a bunch of so-called experts who watch some tape and prattle on about "upside potential."

I also will add I don't have a dog in this fight. I read the thread and saw a lot of Drake Maye fans and decided to post a couple of podcasts I had recently listened to that had a contrary opinion. I'm not a QB expert and don't play one on TV. Personally I hope all these guys have successful careers.

He was hired in 1983, he had a relationship with Accorsi who he had provided scouting reports when he was in HS, Accorsi told him to start a business selling his scouting reports. He got a job in 83/84 but didn't follow the team when they left town.

Here's the thing to me... you're doing a false appeal to authority.... an NFL team hired Simms to throw a football not evaluate QB prospects, and the former scouts were hired usually because they knew somebody, then got fired for sucking at their jobs. I don't think anyone thinks it's dumb because they are high on Maye, there have been plenty of discussions on here of experts who are less high on Maye. It's dumb because you said you ignore the people who do this for a living and spend all year on it in favor of a guy who has no track record of success in evaluating prospects who spends most of his year giving all around hot takes on a podcast because he sat on the bench in the NFL for a few years.

I would also say on Kiper.... lots of teams for many years used his scouting guides, he was basically the forerunner of the scouting services they all buy reports from now. His evaluations were probably used by more teams than all of the former players and scouts combined.

Sometimes you can point to a guy and say for example:
"Hey I put a lot of emphasis on what Rick Spielman produces for CBS because he has a long track record as an NFL GM and ultimate decision maker" I think that's totally reasonable, he has a clear record, he was the guy who made the decisions etc. But guys who have no background in this at all but played? And discounting any other source regardless of track record is silly.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Baltimore Colts? How old is the guy? They left Baltimore in 1984.

I looked up his bio and only saw media jobs after college.

Look, you're free to listen to anyone you want. There is so much noise in the draft media industry I tune out those who have never been paid by a team to play, scout, or coach. It doesn't mean someone who played, scouted, or coached for an NFL team is right, but at least I know some NFL team paid them for their talent. As opposed to a bunch of so-called experts who watch some tape and prattle on about "upside potential."

I also will add I don't have a dog in this fight. I read the thread and saw a lot of Drake Maye fans and decided to post a couple of podcasts I had recently listened to that had a contrary opinion. I'm not a QB expert and don't play one on TV. Personally I hope all these guys have successful careers.

It’s wild to me that you don’t think Kiper could have gotten an NFL gig at some point in his career. He’s been very open about getting job offers and turning them down because he likes his current role. When Mayock left NFLN to be the GM of the Raiders it was a hot topic, why Mel never did the same and he came out and said he had offers and wanted to stay doing his thing.

I could see an argument that he’s too old fashioned, maybe not up on the analytics or whatever. But to discredit his scouting prowess vs a lot of these other guys is just crazy to me.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

He was hired in 1983, he had a relationship with Accorsi who he had provided scouting reports when he was in HS, Accorsi told him to start a business selling his scouting reports. He got a job in 83/84 but didn't follow the team when they left town.

Here's the thing to me... you're doing a false appeal to authority.... an NFL team hired Simms to throw a football not evaluate QB prospects, and the former scouts were hired usually because they knew somebody, then got fired for sucking at their jobs. I don't think anyone thinks it's dumb because they are high on Maye, there have been plenty of discussions on here of experts who are less high on Maye. It's dumb because you said you ignore the people who do this for a living and spend all year on it in favor of a guy who has no track record of success in evaluating prospects who spends most of his year giving all around hot takes on a podcast because he sat on the bench in the NFL for a few years.

I would also say on Kiper.... lots of teams for many years used his scouting guides, he was basically the forerunner of the scouting services they all buy reports from now. His evaluations were probably used by more teams than all of the former players and scouts combined.

Sometimes you can point to a guy and say for example:
"Hey I put a lot of emphasis on what Rick Spielman produces for CBS because he has a long track record as an NFL GM and ultimate decision maker" I think that's totally reasonable, he has a clear record, he was the guy who made the decisions etc. But guys who have no background in this at all but played? And discounting any other source regardless of track record is silly.

This is a good point, Kiper’s guide was a resource teams used to pay for in the 90’s. His draft guide was a bible of sorts for a lot of teams

Things have changed obviously but it’s not like the guy is some random dude watching a couple of YouTube clips and opining on it. He has 40 years of experience watching film all year round, talking to scouts, GMs, etc

He (like everyone) gets a lot wrong but the guy has probably watched more film and evaluated more players than just about anyone else alive at this point.

 

[BaseballJones]

Daniels should be more NFL ready than Maye , and I could see that in year one or two he outperforms Maye, which means that the team that gets Maye might be tempted to rue the decision. But I think at just 21, Maye has a lot more room to grow and his ceiling could be higher. Just might (most likely will) take more time to realize it. So if the Pats take Maye, we all need to be ready for him to need quite a bit of space to develop, but I think the payoff ultimately could be huge.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I don't care at all about mock draft articles. I'm more interested in the evaluation of players by people who know what it takes to play in the NFL.

Two QB evaluators I respect do not like Drake Maye early in the 1st at all. Those evaluators are Chris Simms and J.T. O'Sullivan.

Here are two podcasts where they discuss the shortcomings of Drake Maye. I think the entire podcasts are worth listening to, but if you wanted to focus on Drake Maye I included the time stamp.


Chris Simms from March 6th.

Go to 1:37:30 for the Maye discussion.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEAeopuBfU8



J.T. O’Sullivan from March 30th.

Go to 16:57 for the Maye discussion.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qICs_ZGLfrA



While some will say Chris Simms is a bit of a hot take guy, J.T. O'Sullivan is 100% a straight shooter (in my opinion anyway).

I like J.T. Bringing up Chris Simms here as support for your argument is an instant disqualifier. He may wind up correct about Maye, doesn't matter. Chris Simms is a fucking flame-throwing moron. IMPOSSIBLE to trust. No credibility at all.

edit typos

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

This, from a source I trust (Evan Lazar), is an excellent take on the pros of DRAKE MAYE to the Patriots:

https://www.patriots.com/news/film-review-analyzing-qb-drake-maye-s-fit-with-the-patriots

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Baltimore Colts? How old is the guy? They left Baltimore in 1984.

I looked up his bio and only saw media jobs after college.

Look, you're free to listen to anyone you want. There is so much noise in the draft media industry I tune out those who have never been paid by a team to play, scout, or coach. It doesn't mean someone who played, scouted, or coached for an NFL team is right, but at least I know some NFL team paid them for their talent. As opposed to a bunch of so-called experts who watch some tape and prattle on about "upside potential."

I also will add I don't have a dog in this fight. I read the thread and saw a lot of Drake Maye fans and decided to post a couple of podcasts I had recently listened to that had a contrary opinion. I'm not a QB expert and don't play one on TV. Personally I hope all these guys have successful careers.

Not going to prop Kiper up as some sort of scouting genius but it’s strange that his opinion would be less valid than some random guy who “scouted at the nfl level”

Are you suggesting anyone who was on an NFL payroll as a scout by definition is better equipped to present draft evaluations than Kiper?regardless of that scout’s years of experience, success or even what they did as “professional scout”?

If professional scouts were the definitive authorities on prospects, there would be unanimous opinions and very low bust rates.

Bucky Brooks was a professional scout (and player albeit not QB) and I don’t see any reason his evaluation of players is any more valid than Kiper’s

The media circuit is littered with former NFL scouts who weren't good at their job. I'm not sure why you would listen to someone like Daniel Kelly just because he scouted poorly in the NFL for a few years. I mean, there's a lot of advanced analytics/scout guys who never touched a football that were/are paid handsomely by NFL teams as "consultants" for their scouting and proprietary advanced metrics.

 

[rodderick]

No one knows jack shit about QBs translating from college to the pros, the person who could project them consistently with even 40% accuracy would make more than the highest paid personnel guy in the game. All we can ask for is that there's well founded reasoning behind these guy's opinions, and if they provide that, who cares what their background is. You can have your pick of your preferred analyst, there will always be "Justin Herbert is the 8th best QB of his draft" for JT O'Sullivan, "Zach Wilson is the best prospect of the 2021 draft" for Chris Simms, "Desmond Ridder will be a high level NFL starter" from Nate Tice, "I bet my career on Jimmy Clausen being a good NFL QB" from Kiper. You don't have to look very deep for huge misses from all of them.

 

[Cellar-Door]

No one knows jack shit about QBs translating from college to the pros, the person who could project them consistently with even 40% accuracy would make more than the highest paid personnel guy in the game. All we can ask for is that there's well founded reasoning behind these guy's opinions, and if they provide that, who cares what their background is. You can have your pick of your preferred analyst, there will always be "Justin Herbert is the 8th best QB of his draft" for JT O'Sullivan, "Zach Wilson is the best prospect of the 2021 draft" for Chris Simms, "Desmond Ridder will be a high level NFL starter" from Nate Tice, "I bet my career on Jimmy Clausen being a good NFL QB" from Kiper. You don't have to look very deep for huge misses from all of them.

And it's even more complex than that, as it's impossible to know the coaching, GM, etc. that will happen. Like Geno Smith... he was a bust in part because his team/coach gave up on him immediately, then years later he became a solid NFL starter when given the chance. Jimmy Clausen got 10 starts then they replaced him with Cam Newton (understandable) and let him rot on the bench for years, probably was never going to be anything, but never got the chance. So much can go wrong such that even if you correctly evaluate all of a guy's strengths and weaknesses... still doesn't matter, because almost nobody comes into the league without a lot of work needed (and growth isn't linear, some guys have their best years the first year or two, some guys grow every year).

I never care much about the bold proclamations, or even the "Ranks" so much as I care about the careful analysis of the strengths, the weaknesses, and what the player can be in a variety of situations.

Edit- I also care about good faith. Do I think you are doing the work and being reasonable, or do I think you're just looking for a hot take, or you watched a couple games or pulled highlights/lowlights. Even the guys I think are good faith can get blinders... I think Tice has gone way too defensive/blinders on Maye because he's exactly the type he likes and has for years, I think on the flip side some guys have blinders on Jayden's limitations.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Speaking of Daniels... A friend asked in slack if one of us could make the case for Daniels. I am not a Daniels in the top 3 person and I am not doing a full big board but Daniels would probably be in around pick 25-35 if I did.

Forgive this for being a little choppy - taking it from a bunch of short quick messages.
The case is in a simplified offense he can rake. Think Hurts 2022. Daniels has good accuracy on his first read. The issue is if it isn’t his first read. There is a ceiling to how far you can get with a guy like that. I have a 7.something on Daniels. You can win with him if he stays healthy. You need to take away processing and decision making. Give him one read to make and then scramble and get down. He doesn’t have the patience or the understanding of when secondary read windows open. And he will take too many sacks. You can probably be competitive with that because of how good a runner he is and how good his first read accuracy is. Again as long as he stays healthy. There is a chance he can develop those mental aspects of his game. But he’s old. He doesn’t even flash it. If you surround him with the right scheme and supporting cast you’re probably in good shape! He won’t 2023 Mahomes you though. Or 2018 Brady.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Forgive this for being a little choppy - taking it from a bunch of short quick messages.
The case is in a simplified offense he can rake. Think Hurts 2022. Daniels has good accuracy on his first read. The issue is if it isn’t his first read. There is a ceiling to how far you can get with a guy like that. I have a 7.something on Daniels. You can win with him if he stays healthy. You need to take away processing and decision making. Give him one read to make and then scramble and get down. He doesn’t have the patience or the understanding of when secondary read windows open. And he will take too many sacks. You can probably be competitive with that because of how good a runner he is and how good his first read accuracy is. Again as long as he stays healthy. There is a chance he can develop those mental aspects of his game. But he’s old. He doesn’t even flash it. If you surround him with the right scheme and supporting cast you’re probably in good shape! He won’t 2023 Mahomes you though. Or 2018 Brady.

This case "for" Daniels sort of helps to convince me that he's not a guy I want at 3.

 

[rodderick]

Speaking of Daniels... A friend asked in slack if one of us could make the case for Daniels. I am not a Daniels in the top 3 person and I am not doing a full big board but Daniels would probably be in around pick 25-35 if I did.

Forgive this for being a little choppy - taking it from a bunch of short quick messages.
The case is in a simplified offense he can rake. Think Hurts 2022. Daniels has good accuracy on his first read. The issue is if it isn’t his first read. There is a ceiling to how far you can get with a guy like that. I have a 7.something on Daniels. You can win with him if he stays healthy. You need to take away processing and decision making. Give him one read to make and then scramble and get down. He doesn’t have the patience or the understanding of when secondary read windows open. And he will take too many sacks. You can probably be competitive with that because of how good a runner he is and how good his first read accuracy is. Again as long as he stays healthy. There is a chance he can develop those mental aspects of his game. But he’s old. He doesn’t even flash it. If you surround him with the right scheme and supporting cast you’re probably in good shape! He won’t 2023 Mahomes you though. Or 2018 Brady.

The thing that bothers me with Daniels is he's never creating outside the pocket. For all of the athleticism, he always bails to run, never to make a play throwing the ball. It's why I don't get the Lamar comparisons, Lamar is a wizard inside the pocket, he's a creator, Daniels to me is much more of a Kaepernick type in that he's always looking to run vertically if there's pressure around.

 

[Mooch]

The thing that bothers me with Daniels is he's never creating outside the pocket. For all of the athleticism, he always bails to run, never to make a play throwing the ball. It's why I don't get the Lamar comparisons, Lamar is a wizard inside the pocket, he's a creator, Daniels to me is much more of a Kaepernick type in that he's always looking to run vertically if there's pressure around.

But that vertical running ability is high-level/elite. Honestly, I’d be ok with Daniels at three for nothing more than having an exciting player behind center for several years. I think that you can absolutely design a successful modern offense around a QB with his skillset.

 

[rodderick]

But that vertical running ability is high-level/elite. Honestly, I’d be ok with Daniels at three for nothing more than having an exciting player behind center for several years. I think that you can absolutely design a successful modern offense around a QB with his skillset.

Daniels absolutely has game breaking speed, no doubt. I just don't think he has anywhere close to Lamar's vison and lateral quickness, and that's a frequent comparison. Runs headfirst into linebackers waaaay too often for my tastes as well. If he were 225 and capable of withstanding hits and trucking people, I'd have no issues taking him at 3, the speed is that impressive. He just runs too recklessly for his body type. But I agree, you can design an offense around his general accuracy, his deep ball and vertical running, I think he has more tools than a guy like Jalen Hurts, for instance, but Hurts is a much sturdier, more powerful runner who can take the punishment for that type of offense to work (and the Eagles suffered greatly with his diminished workload in the running game last year) and I worry Daniels won't be able to.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Daniels absolutely has game breaking speed, no doubt. I just don't think he has anywhere close to Lamar's vison and lateral quickness, and that's a frequent comparison. Runs headfirst into linebackers waaaay too often for my tastes as well. If he were 225 and capable of withstanding hits and trucking people, I'd have no issues taking him at 3, the speed is that impressive. He just runs too recklessly for his body type. But I agree, you can design an offense around his general accuracy, his deep ball and vertical running, I think he has more tools than a guy like Jalen Hurts, for instance, but Hurts is a much sturdier, more powerful runner who can take the punishment for that type of offense to work (and the Eagles suffered greatly with his diminished workload in the running game last year) and I worry Daniels won't be able to.

While Id much prefer a more well rounded QB, in today's world of RPO offenses, teams can still score plenty of points with a QB who has a limited ability to read the field.

 

[rodderick]

While Id much prefer a more well rounded QB, in today's world of RPO offenses, teams can still score plenty of points with a QB who has a limited ability to read the field.

100% agreed, as I said, I think Jalen Hurts is the very embodiment of that concept and Daniels is both faster and a better passer than him, and Jalen Hurts came very close to winning a Super Bowl MVP. But if I'm picking at 3 I want the guy that can make plays for me in a lot of spots, not one that demands an offense specifically catered to suit his strengths or demands high level talent on the outside to succeed. I'd love to pick Jayden Daniels at, say, 14.

 

[Super Nomario]

He was hired in 1983, he had a relationship with Accorsi who he had provided scouting reports when he was in HS, Accorsi told him to start a business selling his scouting reports. He got a job in 83/84 but didn't follow the team when they left town.

Here's the thing to me... you're doing a false appeal to authority.... an NFL team hired Simms to throw a football not evaluate QB prospects, and the former scouts were hired usually because they knew somebody, then got fired for sucking at their jobs.

A lot of scouts get fired not because they're bad but because there are moves at the top of the organization and new GMs tend to bring in their own guys. It's a brutal industry.

I would also say on Kiper.... lots of teams for many years used his scouting guides, he was basically the forerunner of the scouting services they all buy reports from now. His evaluations were probably used by more teams than all of the former players and scouts combined.

No, the scouting services go back to the 70s, they predate Kiper. BLESTO was founded in 1963, when Kiper was three. It would be more accurate to say Kiper packages the work of the scouting services for mass consumption.

I don't especially think Kiper is a great scout, nor does he seem to have a particular handle on what teams are doing. Mostly I guess he's good on TV and he's been doing it forever.
(I am with you that Chris Simms sucks)

 

[j44thor]

But that vertical running ability is high-level/elite. Honestly, I’d be ok with Daniels at three for nothing more than having an exciting player behind center for several years. I think that you can absolutely design a successful modern offense around a QB with his skillset.

That skillset requires WRs that can consistently beat coverage quickly as you don't want Daniels going to his 3rd read. NE doesn't have that personnel and likely won't for at least a couple years. Daniels would have a much better chance on WAS but might be best suited for MN where he can look for JJets or Addison/Hockenson every play.

 

[DJnVa]

I'm hoping for Maye, but here's Lazar with a deep dive on Daniels and his potential fit: Film Review: Analyzing Jayden Daniels's Fit With the Patriots

Assuming the Patriots coaching staff will figure out how to build the scheme around him, Daniels will be just fine as a distributor in a shotgun-heavy passing system. Plus, he's a more dynamic runner than Fields and Hurts, which could be the ultimate trump card that forces defenses to defend him similarly to Lamar Jackson.
New England can build a productive offense with Daniels as the centerpiece, making him worthy of the third overall pick.

 

[j44thor]

I'm hoping for Maye, but here's Lazar with a deep dive on Daniels and his potential fit: Film Review: Analyzing Jayden Daniels's Fit With the Patriots

I find it odd that Lazar ultimately ends up suggesting Daniels would be worth the 3rd pick when he spends a good amount of time discussing Daniels weaknesses which compare directly with Justin Fields, specifically the historic pressure to sack ratio and lack of middle field throws. He also notes that AVP would need to build a new offense for Daniels as his offense typically relies on under center rhythm passing and play action not the shotgun RPO offense Daniels will most likely need to succeed.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Miami scored a crapton of points last year getting the ball out in 2 seconds or less. I get that they have Tyreek Hill, but I'm not sure that you need a QB going to his fourth read to be successful either.

 

[DJnVa]

I find it odd that Lazar ultimately ends up suggesting Daniels would be worth the 3rd pick when he spends a good amount of time discussing Daniels weaknesses which compare directly with Justin Fields, specifically the historic pressure to sack ratio and lack of middle field throws. He also notes that AVP would need to build a new offense for Daniels as his offense typically relies on under center rhythm passing and play action not the shotgun RPO offense Daniels will most likely need to succeed.

I think that's why he's saying this:

His high-end traits in some aspects of my non-negotiables might outweigh areas where he falls short.

He also thinks his baseline is better than Fields as a passer and runner. So while they might be deficient in some of the same areas, he thinks Daniels is still better in those areas.

 

[Auger34]

Speaking of Daniels... A friend asked in slack if one of us could make the case for Daniels. I am not a Daniels in the top 3 person and I am not doing a full big board but Daniels would probably be in around pick 25-35 if I did.

Forgive this for being a little choppy - taking it from a bunch of short quick messages.
The case is in a simplified offense he can rake. Think Hurts 2022. Daniels has good accuracy on his first read. The issue is if it isn’t his first read. There is a ceiling to how far you can get with a guy like that. I have a 7.something on Daniels. You can win with him if he stays healthy. You need to take away processing and decision making. Give him one read to make and then scramble and get down. He doesn’t have the patience or the understanding of when secondary read windows open. And he will take too many sacks. You can probably be competitive with that because of how good a runner he is and how good his first read accuracy is. Again as long as he stays healthy. There is a chance he can develop those mental aspects of his game. But he’s old. He doesn’t even flash it. If you surround him with the right scheme and supporting cast you’re probably in good shape! He won’t 2023 Mahomes you though. Or 2018 Brady.

Isn't the offense that you're describing exactly what the Kingsbury offense is?

 

[j44thor]

Miami scored a crapton of points last year getting the ball out in 2 seconds or less. I get that they have Tyreek Hill, but I'm not sure that you need a QB going to his fourth read to be successful either.

They have Hill and Waddle, two of the best separators in the NFL, and a new weapon in Achane who might be the fastest RB in the NFL. NE doesn't have anyone within 2 tiers of those 3 so they do need a QB that can process and find the right read because it is hard to quickly scheme open average athletes consistently.

 

[Arroyoyo]

It makes me happy to see some pushback here on all the “consensus top three” nonsense going around the media. Because I really do feel both Maye and Daniels have waded well into “overrated and not worth top-3 picks” territory. As I’ve stated already in this thread, both are talented, but they get talked about like they’re the second coming of Jackson/Allen/etc and I’m just not seeing that when I look closer at their film.

Both are mid-late first rounders to me - maybe even low 2nd’s - that have been hyped wayyy up the board.

At this point I think Caleb is the only true elite QB talent in this class. There’s a huge bucket of developmental guys after that that includes Daniels, Maye, Penix, Nix, McCarthy, in whichever order you choose, just not early in R1. All may be excellent quarterbacks but I think all will also take some real time to get there (2-3 years, minimum). In the case of Nix, Penix, and Daniels, that’s actually not a great thing given how old they already are.

BTW, six months ago I wanted Maye on the Patriots, badly. But I hadn’t dug deeper into looking at his footwork and body control. Once I did I came off my spot pretty quick.

 

[Jimbodandy]

They have Hill and Waddle, two of the best separators in the NFL, and a new weapon in Achane who might be the fastest RB in the NFL. NE doesn't have anyone within 2 tiers of those 3 so they do need a QB that can process and find the right read because it is hard to quickly scheme open average athletes consistently.

In 2024, yeah it would be a struggle for a team with the Pats' offensive talent to implement a Miami-like system. I'm pushing back on the idea that you need a QB who can go through four reads to have a successful offense nowadays. You don't. Miami just did it.

 

[DJnVa]

Another Athletic article, with 17 NFL types (including Simms, GAH) voting: NFL executives, scouts rank draft’s top QBs: ‘He scares the hell out of me’ - The Athletic And yes, that quote is about Maye.

Simms about Maye: I always hear (Maye is) like Justin Herbert coming out or Josh Allen, and my brain wants to explode.
Scout 1: Maye reminds me a lot of Herbert.
Assistant coach: Maye is Herbert light. I like Maye, but when I see the amount of work it will take to have him reach his potential, we’ll be fired first.

Then this, which makes me laugh:

Personnel executive 1: ...and accuracy is average.
Former GM: He has accuracy you can’t teach

I mean, what are we doing? lol


On Daniels:

Assistant coach: Daniels is so good. … He is so much better than Maye and McCarthy. It’s not even close. Daniels can play NFL football right now.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Daniels was an electric (mostly) straight line runner in college, his agility and elusiveness aren’t nearly as good as Jackson’s. I’m surprised more people in the draft community aren’t questioning whether his speed will translate at the same level in the pros

Going against faster, smarter defenders, I don’t know that he will have the same success running in the NFL. And if that part of his game isn’t elite, he loses a lot of his value.

I still like him a lot as a prospect but I’m not convinced he’s going to be the MVP caliber threat with his legs that will be needed for him to justify a top 3 pick

 

[Cellar-Door]

Another Athletic article, with 17 NFL types (including Simms, GAH) voting: NFL executives, scouts rank draft’s top QBs: ‘He scares the hell out of me’ - The Athletic And yes, that quote is about Maye.



Then this, which makes me laugh:


I mean, what are we doing? lol


On Daniels:

Simms saying Maye had a bad pro-day (nobody else said this) and it confirmed for him his opinion of Maye is such a tell that he's a clown... it's a pro-day zero decisions should be made about a guy based on playing catch.

 

[DJnVa]

Simms saying Maye had a bad pro-day (nobody else said this) and it confirmed for him his opinion of Maye is such a tell that he's a clown... it's a pro-day zero decisions should be made about a guy based on playing catch.

It's one of the first times I've cringed when reading coverage from The Athletic. That they'd bring him in is...not good.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It's one of the first times I've cringed when reading coverage from The Athletic. That they'd bring him in is...not good.

I assume it's crossover, you put Simms in your article, and NBC puts Brugler on NBC Sports, that kind of thing is how it works sadly, same as why Mina Kimes who is a good analyst brings him in despite having a bunch of better analysts in-house at ESPN.

 

[slamminsammya]

Why do we never see quantitative measures of all these scouting pronouncements? “great accuracy” dont we have the tools in 2024 to measure that for every throw the guy made? or am i just out of touch?

 

[tims4wins]

Why do we never see quantitative measures of all these scouting pronouncements? “great accuracy” dont we have the tools in 2024 to measure that for every throw the guy made? or am i just out of touch?

You can probably measure it to a degree but it still depends on strength of line, WR, etc. It’s a bit of a nebulous term unlike say velocity.

Edit and even velocity has problems because it’s kind of rare that you can just step into a throw and put 100% behind it

 

[Cellar-Door]

Why do we never see quantitative measures of all these scouting pronouncements? “great accuracy” dont we have the tools in 2024 to measure that for every throw the guy made? or am i just out of touch?

different people mean different things, but generally no you can't really track it. You need to know what every guy was supposed to do, where the QB was throwing it, why etc. So as an example, if the WR runs the wrong route depth and the QB throws on the break and misses him... was that his accuracy or that the WR screwed up, you can't tell that unless you know exactly what the route was supposed to be, or the defensive coverage. Or if you throw a ball deep, how does the evaluator determine if you were supposed to lead the player outside or inside if the guy runs onto it and catches it. Some people also mean... good enough to be complete is accurate, while others are about placement.

A good example of this is I saw two evaluators use the same play.... one used it to say the QB had accuracy issues because the throw was low and short, the other used it as an example of great reading of the coverage and good placement because to him that's where you have to throw it for only your WR to have a chance on it based on CB leverage.