sure. we can measure it imperfectly. have a scout look at the throws and do a simple grading
What do you want Pats to do with #3?
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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i still think you get a better conversation and basis for comparison with an imperfect measure than having a bunch of guys just going off their impressions
See previous post. Scouts can completely disagree on the same play. This is why drafting is such a crapshoot especially at this position.
so we can have two guys do the same plays. establish a baseline rate of disagreement. maybe it turns out to be small! and in that case you don’t need to worry too much about those corner cases when looking at an aggregate measurement.
these are all known problems in data stuff. i’m surprised people are so dismissive of it. there’s lots of techniques to deal with non unanimous labels, noisy measurements, translating qualitative into quantitative etc.
I’m not sure anyone is dismissive. It’s more that if there was general agreement on how to grade accurately then the league would be a lot better at drafting QBs. The first guy who figured it out is gonna make a fortune.
Take Maye
I just saw someone who is very in the know on the team at UNC. Noted he did slow his mechanics on some plays but this has been improved and reduced in frequency. Arm is great.
Notes he is 20 vs Caleb or Jayden at ~24. Caleb is more a nutcase than what we even see it sounds like.
OTOH Maye has been dating the same girl since 7th grade
His biggest concern for the Pats and Maye is that the Pats, like UNC lack weapons for him. Which could make rookie year slow start.
Then this person ripped Chris Simms and said he is a hack that is bitter he was benched by Brown at Texas for Colt McCoy and makes up shit to get views. So I trust this person alone on his Chris Simms take.
I just saw someone who is very in the know on the team at UNC. Noted he did slow his mechanics on some plays but this has been improved and reduced in frequency. Arm is great.
Notes he is 20 vs Caleb or Jayden at ~24. Caleb is more a nutcase than what we even see it sounds like.
OTOH Maye has been dating the same girl since 7th grade
His biggest concern for the Pats and Maye is that the Pats, like UNC lack weapons for him. Which could make rookie year slow start.
Then this person ripped Chris Simms and said he is a hack that is bitter he was benched by Brown at Texas for Colt McCoy and makes up shit to get views. So I trust this person alone on his Chris Simms take.
i’m not talking about assigning an overall grade or projectability. just providing data about qualitative statements of their particular traits as they are right now, like “has plus accuracy”.
i wouldn’t be surprised if teams already have this, i’m more surprised there is there isn’t something publicly available.
Drake Maye has been considered the 2nd best QB in this draft class for over a year now. Not sure how anyone can think Maye is a late 1st or 2nd round pick at this point.
I wonder how the development of AI tools will affect scouting in the near future. Will the position become obsolete in sports?
Why ask a human (generally with a low success rate) his/her opinion on who to draft/how to construct your team when you can leverage tools that are built for exponential refinement to tell you exactly the best match for your team based on how your roster is currently constructed? And to go further, the most optimal direction to take your roster building moving forward based on who will be available in future draft classes?
I’m sure this use of AI already exists to some extent in all major sports, but you’d think it’s a prime example of an industry that’s going to completely change the way it finds and selects talent in the future.
Why ask a human (generally with a low success rate) his/her opinion on who to draft/how to construct your team when you can leverage tools that are built for exponential refinement to tell you exactly the best match for your team based on how your roster is currently constructed? And to go further, the most optimal direction to take your roster building moving forward based on who will be available in future draft classes?
I’m sure this use of AI already exists to some extent in all major sports, but you’d think it’s a prime example of an industry that’s going to completely change the way it finds and selects talent in the future.
i’m skeptical because the data is extremely sparse and the outcome feels inherently very noisy.
They will if he's there at 3. I am not seeing any reason they won't, unless you believe the McCarthy stuff.
I just don't see Maye going lower than the top 3.
I guess I don't see how you get it to a reasonable metric. You need to know what the playcall is, you need to know the coaching emphasis, you need to consider game situation, etc. THEN you have to make subjective determinations. And you have to do this on a generally small sample with wild differences in opponent and teammate skill level. The NFL has fewer of these issues, even then the "bad throw %" which is the closest we have is okay but pretty low value.
One reason that college prospect grading is so hard is that these guys aren't playing the same opponent quality week to week and the skill differences are enormous, it's really tough and lots of people (PFF for one) is trying, but it's just that you're trying to measure something in a small sample with a ton of unknowable variables.
Lots of people "chart" throws, Derek Klassen is one... you can often find those things, and PFF has their metrics. The "plus accuracy" is just a shorthand. I'm sure each team/scout working of these guys chart out every throw and make their best guess, then they go to the meetings pull up some of those plays and say "what did you see here, what was the coaching emphasis, why did you throw that"
That's a grade not where they think he'll go. Some scouts have likely always been down on him. Others (Simms, Orlovsky)... those guys by their own admission don't start even really watching tape on those guys until March.
And Josh Allen, and Herbert
Edit- Maye's situation is exactly the kind where you can see why his numbers and performance were down.. new OC, worse talent, etc.
Sure, but is Luck the exception or the norm of a player (and I used this term lightly as Maye is indeed so young) trending in the wrong direction?
My point is Maye being a consensus #2 a year ago does not mean he remains consensus #2 because of some bizarro unwritten rule that says “once you’re #2 you can never regress below that.”
Right so you look deeper and see he had a new OC and less skill position talent, which comes into play. Unsure if Luck is an outlier but there are certainly other examples with high picks as noted above.
We know that in the NBA and pro soccer teams feed video into software that tracks individual player movements and identifies the optimal decision the player could/sh have made.
And we know for several years, NFL teams have customized VR set ups for QBs to train against different coverages and fronts.
There’s no doubt that NFL teams feed all-22 film into programs and assess how often QB prospects make the optimal choice and nail the execution (as well as track how well recovers run routes, backs find holes, etc). And then they can cue up difficult scenarios on the VR for players when they come in for visits.
All of this is proprietary and probably so expensive that no individual writer/bloviator would pay for it and no publishers see a reader/viewer market interested enough to make the investment worthwhile.
This is why I tune out all of this shit.
I'd love to know what team these scouts or coaches were working for.
If I have the #3 pick, and I want Drake Maye, you can bet your ass every quote I give out is going to shit on Drake Maye and talk up Daniels.
I have the #6 pick and I want a QB, I'm shitting on everyone.
If I have the #25 pick and don't need a QB, maybe I'll be honest.
i don’t work directly in this area so i can’t speak with a very high degree of confidence but i do work with AI for a while now and i have medium confidence any model that can generate the optimal decision at any point in soccer is snake oil. basketball seems slightly more feasible to me.
and regarding the supposedly impossibility of a quantitative measure of e.g. accuracy - yes i find it very dismissive @Cellar-Door . jt o sullivan said of drake maye he has a lot of throws that are embarrassingly bad. great, i believe him. let’s have jt go through the tape and count how many of those he found. you really think you need the play call, the coaching, the receiver. and opponent to measure wtf was that throws?
and follow up - let’s say we have a binary accurate / inaccurate signal. suppose some percentage of that signal is noisy because we do t have enough information. two questions:
1) what pct of throws do you think this uncertainty makes it hard to judge? equivalently what pct of throws can you look at and clearly say good/bad? id say easily it’s over 50%.
2) what level of noise for a binary signal starts really hurting its reliability over 500 samples or whatever we get in a full season?
yeah you can do a "WTF throw" metric I guess, but that's not what most scouts mean about accuracy. What they care more about is the tough stuff.. did you lead your guy correctly, did you set him up for YAC, did you put it in the right spot for the coverage, etc.
No you wouldn't, because you would prop up Nix and Penix and try to get them drafted before you so that a better WR or OT or whatever drops to you.
I honestly don't care that his year was worse this year. He had a shit offensive line, worse skill guys than last year, and a new offensive coordinator. A lot of the things people are down on with him are fixable. His physical traits are off the charts and very much worth taking the gamble that the Pats coaching staff can correct his footwork. He may have missed some easy throws, but he's extremely aggressive down the field and makes plays. Give him most of this year to correct what he needs to correct.
Correct. I comped him to Lamar - Lite but it’s underselling what elevated Lamar and makes him special. You hit the nail on the head here.
You absolutely can build an offense around him. I question how effective that offense will be from year to year. Unfortunately a lot of the offenses that are simple like that get defended better in year 2. Hurts, for example, last year didn't have the same easy shots. If you are a spam play offense, which many of these simple offenses are, you either have the horses to win or you don't. Even the Eagles couldn't get away with it last year.
Yeah, I just don't get it. If I had to rank the guys it would be Caleb then honestly JJM for a pure scheme fit and familiarity, and then right next to him, Mayes. Day 2 Nix. Daniels and Penix are NOT fits!
That's rich//hindsight-speaking. Fields had a much more live arm. Fields has a howitzer anywhere on the field including on the go. He might be better as a runner though. Fields was in a vertical offense and stayed in the pocket much more. Fields and Daniels have the same processing issues. Daniels, I suppose, can get it out quicker and is quicker making the determination to scramble.
It is! He is a clean fit for the Arizona offense or the Philly offense. He is not really a WCO friendly QB modern or classic.
Maye's CPOE is the worst of the top 8 QBs, +0.5%.
I hate this part of draft season because people can be overconfident in their evals, which historically we know is the wrong approach. And then people can be reductive like "oh this is fixable". Yes. Sure. It is! But that doesn't mean it actually gets fixed.
The thing with Maye is if he can't fix his accuracy on routine plays he won't have nearly the success creating on third down that he did in college. It isn't just inaccurate on his first read. He has accuracy issues on outbreaking throws even if they are his first read. It is footwork causing the problem.
I think the guys like Waldman and JTO are good at pointing out what things people are not doing well but they aren't good at projecting guys because frankly no one is. it is also hard to know whose game translates well, who will grow, who won't grow, where the guy will land, etc.
I'll keep saying this because I think it is evergreen: all you can do is show what the prospect does well, show what they need to improve on, and hope for the best. I just push back on people who are like "ZOMG Maye is a slam dunk. He iS jOsH aLlEn 2.0!" He's a calculated gamble that I would make but get those who wouldn't make it. I would not make that gamble for Daniels or JJM at 3.
For JJM he's accurate in general but doesn't throw with touch and he is inaccurate outside. That's not an issue when you are on a front runner with a great defense and a fantastic running game. It will be an issue in the NFL.
I hate this part of draft season because people can be overconfident in their evals, which historically we know is the wrong approach. And then people can be reductive like "oh this is fixable". Yes. Sure. It is! But that doesn't mean it actually gets fixed.
The thing with Maye is if he can't fix his accuracy on routine plays he won't have nearly the success creating on third down that he did in college. It isn't just inaccurate on his first read. He has accuracy issues on outbreaking throws even if they are his first read. It is footwork causing the problem.
I think the guys like Waldman and JTO are good at pointing out what things people are not doing well but they aren't good at projecting guys because frankly no one is. it is also hard to know whose game translates well, who will grow, who won't grow, where the guy will land, etc.
I'll keep saying this because I think it is evergreen: all you can do is show what the prospect does well, show what they need to improve on, and hope for the best. I just push back on people who are like "ZOMG Maye is a slam dunk. He iS jOsH aLlEn 2.0!" He's a calculated gamble that I would make but get those who wouldn't make it. I would not make that gamble for Daniels or JJM at 3.
For JJM he's accurate in general but doesn't throw with touch and he is inaccurate outside. That's not an issue when you are on a front runner with a great defense and a fantastic running game. It will be an issue in the NFL.
Hayden Winks has a pretty good track record projecting prospects and seems to think JJM's issues are fixable as he gets stronger physically. He points out that he has to put his whole body into throws downfield and outside the #s because he simply doesn't have the arm strength to make the throws but given he just turned 21 YO I think you can project him to add on an easy 10-15lbs of muscle after a year or two in an NFL strength training program. Once he has easier arm strength he should be able to layer the throws that he currently has to line drive.
JJM was a highly recruited prospect that came out of IMG Academy so the pedigree is certainly there along with the athleticism.
JJM was a highly recruited prospect that came out of IMG Academy so the pedigree is certainly there along with the athleticism.
I dunno man. He's been a highly sout after prospect since he was 16 and went to a top D1 program. I don't think there's any magic juice an NFL training program is going to give him. Not to mention big muscles doesn't equal arm strength (at least the football throwing kind).
Yeah, I think JJM can add strength, including arm strength, many 21 year old players do (Jayden Daniels did for example), but.... I don't think adding NFL muscle is going to change much about how he throws the ball. Maybe his in the pocket full stride throws will get more zip, but the guys who can just flick it without their feet under them... that seems like it's just a skill/gift that other guys don't develop at the NFL level. Feels like he'd have to learn a completely new way to throw the ball. My concerns about JJM are less that his arm is bad than that he needs his platform to make throws. Oh some tweaks and another couple years of training will probably help JJM's clean pocket throws to the sidelines, but I think that is far less of a limitation for him than his lack of touch or struggles throwing without his full base. I think his strength is pretty low on my list of concerns about his ceiling.
lol was literally posting that when you did.
Could be spin obviously, but Schefter is the most tied in guy in terms of front offices.
Yeah it’s possible he’s letting Minny use him, but my guess is Houston also confirmed it if he’s willing to go out with that because if Minny uses that 23 pick to move up it’ll look a bit funky for him to have bothered to walk out on that limb.
My guess is HOU approached for that deal as he notes. What is less clear is whether MIN (or anyone else) won't be moving up for JJM. I buy the trade scenario for MIN/HOU, but I don't think MIN didn't at least consider how well it sets them up to move up.
This is basically what the draft outlook was 2 months ago, then the circus happened. I think it's an accurate prediction.
in sport and particularly the QB position its tough to use AI. It goes a lot past college stats. The human condition is near impossible for any data model to figure out. Bouncing back from a bad run of play. Poise in the pocket, ability to read and audible. You can do thinks like speed, arm strangth etc.. but the nuances of the person are hard to judge and are hugely important. Your Jeff Georges, Jamarcus russells and Ryan Leafs would probably be statistical super beings but something in them didnt translate the physical tools to success
I absolutely understand it’s not a game situation, but one could certainly very objectively and quantitatively measure accuracy by having them throw at targets at different parts of the field and distances. Again, not the same as in a game, but I would think that would have some value. If one player can put the ball through a tire at 40 yards 20 out of 20 times and another is only 10 out of 20 times , I’d think the first player is more likely to have better accuracy in a game as well.
I don't know. Maybe if the difference is that clear, sure, but reaction time, anticipation and rhythm play such a part in NFL game accuracy it's tough to judge. As an example, Justin Fields is a guy who can place and manipulate the ball to fit it pretty much anywhere he wants on the field, but has below average NFL accuracy due to slow processing. The guy who sees the open man half a second before will generally be more accurate even if his ability to place the ball is worse. Of course, if he's spraying the ball all over it's a different story, but those guys just don't usually make it to NFL starter level to begin with.
I think pinpoint accuracy was a much bigger deal in the NFL than it is now in this era of "the scheme will give you two quick solutions to the problem and if you don't trust either just go make a play and figure it out".
There's some very real things that could pop up in the near future that could make traditional scouting obsolete.
For example, I saw a video recently where AI learned human brain wave patterns. People were then asked to imagine specific things - a giraffe walking through the Serengeti - and the AI read the brain waves and reproduced those exact visions in motion videos.
It's easy to envision how something like this could be used to process and produce information like (A) what a QB was told pre-snap (B) what he saw during a play (C) how he processed the information.
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Soylent Green is right around the corner, isn't it? I just hope the Pats draft a serviceable QB before I have to start eating the stuff.
For some perspective, as a Vikings fan I really want them to land one of these top 4 QBs this year, but I'm terrified about what it might cost them (I find myself hoping one of them falls on Draft Night and they can scoop one of them up at 11).
Not because I'm particularly in love with any of these guys, but because if you don't have an above average QB you aren't going anywhere. And none of these guys are slam dunks (even Williams) and nobody can be sure which of these guys will eventually pan out. But Sam Darnold is not going to cut it. Jacoby Brisset is not going to cut it. You need to try and find a new QB who will be above average to even have a prayer of succeeding in the NFL.
So what you're really paying for is the opportunity to draft one of them and find out. It's likely that all three of them wind up below-average NFL starters, but it's better than the alternative. Drafting a QB that doesn't work out isn't the end of the world - and it happens more often than drafting one who works out. What really sets a franchise back and makes it harder to rebuild is when they have to "pay up" and still ending up with a below-average QB.
So unless the Pats front office is absolutely 1000% certain that none of these guys have the ability to succeed playing QB at the NFL level, I think you have to take the opportunity you have in hand to find out if one of these guys can make it, because the most likely alternative is paying an outrageous amount to move up in a future draft simply for the opportunity to see if one of those guys could pan out. Sure, it will suck if the guy they draft doesn't pan out. But I think passing one one of these guys here just makes it more likely that you're sitting here next year (or the year after that) debating about whether it's worth it to pay some exorbitant price to move up into the Top 5 or 10 or whatever to draft some other prospect who probably isn't any less of a risk than these guys are today. At least this year it doesnt cost you anything "extra" for that opportunity.
Not because I'm particularly in love with any of these guys, but because if you don't have an above average QB you aren't going anywhere. And none of these guys are slam dunks (even Williams) and nobody can be sure which of these guys will eventually pan out. But Sam Darnold is not going to cut it. Jacoby Brisset is not going to cut it. You need to try and find a new QB who will be above average to even have a prayer of succeeding in the NFL.
So what you're really paying for is the opportunity to draft one of them and find out. It's likely that all three of them wind up below-average NFL starters, but it's better than the alternative. Drafting a QB that doesn't work out isn't the end of the world - and it happens more often than drafting one who works out. What really sets a franchise back and makes it harder to rebuild is when they have to "pay up" and still ending up with a below-average QB.
So unless the Pats front office is absolutely 1000% certain that none of these guys have the ability to succeed playing QB at the NFL level, I think you have to take the opportunity you have in hand to find out if one of these guys can make it, because the most likely alternative is paying an outrageous amount to move up in a future draft simply for the opportunity to see if one of those guys could pan out. Sure, it will suck if the guy they draft doesn't pan out. But I think passing one one of these guys here just makes it more likely that you're sitting here next year (or the year after that) debating about whether it's worth it to pay some exorbitant price to move up into the Top 5 or 10 or whatever to draft some other prospect who probably isn't any less of a risk than these guys are today. At least this year it doesnt cost you anything "extra" for that opportunity.
What do you guys think the chances are that we "know" the Commanders' pick with a high degree of confidence going into the draft? In other words, they either publicly confirm who they're going to take (like the Jets did with Zach Wilson a few years ago) or it becomes so widely reported by relatively reliable journalists that we can basically assume its a done deal.
If the Commanders are hoping to try and convince the Patriots to move up to #2, they would have absolutely no interest in letting it be known who they are going to draft. But, that doesn't seem particularly realistic. So, the question then becomes, is there any benefit to the Commanders to letting people know who they are taking? Can't really think of one. There's not much harm in it - but I don't really see any benefit.
Yeah, its probably one of these situations where there is very little benefit but also very little downside. If you're Washington and you're set on Daniels then the only situation where you're really hurt by revealing that preference is one in which another team is willing to offer a king's ransom to trade up for Maye, a deal which you would gladly accept rather than take Daniels, and therefore that team now feels they can deal with the Patriots instead of you.
But that scenario rests on a lot of assumptions (a) you're not so set on solving the QB position that you're even thinking about trading down (b) somebody is willing to offer enough to make you want to trade down (c) the Patriots are also willing to do the deal, so getting Maye at #3 is a viable alternative for that team rather than offering the deal to you at #2. And there is probably a mirror scenario where a team desperately wants to trade up for Daniels in which revealing your preference may help you, as it means that team knows they cannot deal with the Patriots and instead need to make you the godfather offer.
If it was BB he'd probably keep his mouth shut no matter what. If it was Dan Snyder still in charge I'd wager heavily on him being unable to keep his mouth shut. With the current Commanders front office and ownership I have no idea.
This is the thing Im torn on.
I felt like Maye was the no brainer #2 pick until about a month ago. I try not to let the draft frenzy recency bias affect me too much, but the most recent tweets about Washington pretty much settling on Daniels gives me pause.
Im still going to guess Maye goes #2. The only reason to go Daniels two is because the Commanders will run an offense more suited for him. And while that makes sense to a degree, its not like Maye doesnt have some of the traits that Washington is looking for with that offense. And you dont pass up on the better, younger prospect because "gee whiz, this player coming out of the draft can run my offense a little bit better!" You take the better prospect and be flexible with the offensive scheme.
So...current media trend says Daniels (which has nothing to do with the pick and everything to do with what gets clicks), but Im guessing we end up stuck with Daniels at #3.
Team picking #2 has an offense that fits Daniels better and team wouldn't be blasted for picking him at #2.
Team picking #3 has an offense that fits Maye better and team wouldn't be blasted for picking him #3.
That 100% means each team ends up with the other guy doesn't it?
There is another obvious reason to go Daniels at #2, he has a much higher floor to most people, even many who think Maye is the better pick.
WAS going Daniels makes a lot of sense, they have a solid WR corps, they have an OC they brought in who fits Daniels very well. If they are looking for a quick turnaround, especially in the much weaker conference, and division. Daniels makes a lot of sense for them, bypassing some upside for a higher floor.
I also think betting on floor and your ability to design an offense/build around a potentially good but not great QB is an approach that fits way better for an NFC team than the Patriots. All of the league's best young QBs are in the AFC, in the NFC you're contending against Purdy/Dak/Hurts/Love/Goff, and you don't necessarily need an elite level guy to go toe to toe with them (though it would obviously help).
I don't know who the Patriots will take. But I do know this: whichever QB they take, I will absolutely fear the weaknesses but very quickly watch his highlights and read the positives in the scouting report and get myself excited for this guy to start for the Pats.
Daniels has a higher floor and is an incredibly good fit for the offense that Kliff Kingsbury runs. I don’t think there’s much more to it than that and I don’t think its too much of a blight on Maye
Schefter seems very sure that Daniels goes 2nd
View: https://twitter.com/HogsHaven/status/1778889390254657897
View: https://twitter.com/HogsHaven/status/1778889390254657897
One consideration that works in tandem with his youth, in the Maye column is that he was a multisport athlete throughout high school. While not unheard of, it is increasingly rare when kids focus in on one spot at younger and younger ages.
Not an original thought, but Tice and a couple of other draft-niks have referenced the multisport factor in relation to his room for growth. The idea being that this is not a kid who has been working solely on being a QB since age 6. So for something like accuracy which people who know way more than me about football, see as linked to footwork, which should be correctable for most QBs, your confidence in fixing that vis a vis Maye is even higher given that he has only been a full time QB for a few years.
Not an original thought, but Tice and a couple of other draft-niks have referenced the multisport factor in relation to his room for growth. The idea being that this is not a kid who has been working solely on being a QB since age 6. So for something like accuracy which people who know way more than me about football, see as linked to footwork, which should be correctable for most QBs, your confidence in fixing that vis a vis Maye is even higher given that he has only been a full time QB for a few years.