What does 2023 look like?

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

I expect 2023 to be Bloom’s first real attempt to win a championship. The payroll will be almost a complete reset with the amount of money coming off the books and the farm system has reached the point where you can make a medium sized trade without losing too much depth.

The big decisions are Devers and Bogaerts. I expect Devers to be extended (say 10/300) but Bogaerts is probably 50/50 to walk. I think his market will be softer than most expect and if the Sox want him back at 6/150 that probably gets it done. If he gets a better offer then I would have no problem moving on. With Story in their back pocket they can figure out SS/2B once more of the roster has taken shape.

The FO knows more about Eovaldi’s health than I do, but assuming what ever is causing the velocity drop (hip?) can be rested/healed over an offseason I expect a QO to be offered and think there is good chance he accepts. I would not offer a QO to JD and let him walk.

Bring Kike back for CF at something similar to his current deal. The good defense alone is probably worth it and he has some upside with the bat as he showed last year. Offer 2/30 to both Michael Brantley and Jose Abreu for LF and DH respectively. I think they pick up Pham’s option and he provides a good platoon partner for both corner OF spots and 1B (Abreu 1B, Brantley DH). I could see Vaz back at catcher but I think this would also be a good place to use some trade chips for someone like Murphy.

LF – Brantley - $15M
SS – Bogaerts - $25M
3B – Devers - $30M
DH – Abreu - $15M
RF – Verdugo - $5M
2B – Story – $23.33M
1B – Hosmer/Casas – $0.7M
CF – Hernandez - $8M
C - Murphy - $5M
Bench – McGuire ($1M), Arroyo ($1.5M), Pham ($6M), Duran ($0.7M)

The rotation would be:

Sale ($25.6M)
Paxton ($13M)
Eovaldi ($19M)
Pivetta ($6M)
Whitlock ($4.81M)
Crawford
Winckowski
Bello

The bullpen would have Houck, Schreiber, Taylor, Davis, Barnes and some AAA starters like Murphy, Walter, and Mata. There will probably be some FA signings but would not expect big names here.

Add in JBJ’s $8M buyout and another $19M for the 40 man roster and benefits puts the luxury tax number around $245M, over the first threshold but with some room under the second for mid-season moves. This would make the Sox a real contender for the next couple of years, but with only Devers and Bogaerts as long term contracts. In a few years when the Mayer/Rafaela/Yorke/Bello group are hopefully taking over spots for the departing FA’s, Devers can move to DH and Bogaerts to 3B.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Yeah I'll be guy who says no to Judge. You guys are all pissed about Sale (who isn't) and ask any Angels fan about Pujols (or half of their most recent signings). The guy is a big dude... he's athletic but he also says "will break my knees and my hips will start falling apart within 2 to 3 years".
I guarantee he'll be on the DL at least 60 games next season. He's exactly what Bloom needs to stay away from! He needs to find who will turn into someone at least close to Judge that's only 24 years old with 2 years in the majors and make a great deal for that guy then sign him to a long term deal.
I have no idea who but that's really the best plan and adding Judge might... MIGHT be good for 1 or 2 seasons before he completely falls apart is not a good idea.

 

[nvalvo]

You forgot Winckowski.

I'd also guess that Brandon Walter and Brayan Bello will stick before Ward and Mata. Though if the latter 2 are fast tracked as bullpen arms, maybe. The Red Sox have a lot of options when it comes to pitching. Majority of it home grown and cheap. I wouldn't be looking to add more pitching either. At least not pitching with a big price tag.

I didn't — I just envision him as AAA depth in a scenario when everyone's healthy.

A rotation of Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Crawford, and Whitlock is expecting a lot from guys who really haven’t pitched much as starters in the last few years. I agree that the Sox have some pitching depth, in terms of guys capable of starting games, but don’t they need some more reliable younger pitching with upside? Trading for a guy like Pablo Lopez, Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Skubal or a similar type (maybe the brewers move one of Burnes or Woodruff?) seems ideal and a way to turn some of our prospect capital into major league help.

I'd love to acquire Tarik Skubal, who looks like he's finally gotten his gopheritis under control and still has five years of control left. But consider this:

Pitcher A, 2022: 5.6 IP/start, 3.52 ERA, 2.97 FIP
Pitcher B, 2022: 6 IP/start, 3.38 ERA, 3.37 FIP

Pitcher A is Skubal, and that performance reflects him cutting his HR rate by more than half while pitching in the largest sea-level park in the country in the weakest division in baseball. Pitcher B is Kutter Crawford's work as a starter, so it's a smallish sample of only 8 starts. But all but one of those starts was against a presumptive playoff team.

In any case, FIP isn't park adjusted, so you might well prefer Crawford's work here to Skubal's just on the basis of the differences between pitching in Comerica (and Target Field and Kaufman...) vs pitching in Fenway (and Rogers Centre and YS3...).

Skubal would cost a fair amount, and isn't actually that much more of a sure thing than Crawford is going forward. To be clear, I'd absolutely trade Crawford for him one for one, but would I deal, say, Crawford and Rafaela and Jordan for him? Nah.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yeah I'll be guy who says no to Judge. You guys are all pissed about Sale (who isn't) and ask any Angels fan about Pujols (or half of their most recent signings). The guy is a big dude... he's athletic but he also says "will break my knees and my hips will start falling apart within 2 to 3 years".
I guarantee he'll be on the DL at least 60 games next season. He's exactly what Bloom needs to stay away from! He needs to find who will turn into someone at least close to Judge that's only 24 years old with 2 years in the majors and make a great deal for that guy then sign him to a long term deal.
I have no idea who but that's really the best plan and adding Judge might... MIGHT be good for 1 or 2 seasons before he completely falls apart is not a good idea.

Maybe he breaks down in 2 to 3 years but I'm guessing it would be because of age more than his size.
Played 148 games last year. Has played 108 of 112 games this year. Plus, depending on what the actual deal is... if he holds up for 3-4 years, it could be enough to be worth it.

I'm closer to a no but I'd definitely listen at the right price. In some ways, I'd prefer to sign a 30 year old to an 8 year deal than a 26 year old to a 12 year deal. There's more information and it probably comes at a reduced price. Theoretically, there should be less risk involved. That seems odd but if they are both locked up to 38, I don't know how one can really argue otherwise. Maybe Devers is the same hitter he is at age 30 as he is now. Maybe. We know Judge is having a career year at age 30 and the rest of his career looks pretty awesome too. The game totals in 2018 and 2019 don't but I think the last 2 years are far more relevant.

I'm not advocating for Judge over Devers or suggesting that these options are based on any type of reality, but if I had to pick one of Judge at 8/280 or Devers at 12/360, I'd take Judge. Every time.

If Devers plays 140 games this year, he's on pace for a 6.0 WAR (4.1 currently) season. Judge put up an 8.0 WAR in his age 25 season (also his rookie year). The following years he's up 5.9, 5.6, 1.1, 6.0 and is on pace for 9.9 this year (6.9 currently). I guess it's possible Devers could outperform Judge in his age 26-29 seasons. I can't see him putting up a 10 WAR season but this could also be Judge's career year. Maybe it's closer than I think but I still go Judge.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Can someone fill me in on why we can't be more excited by Enmanuel Valdez? He's crushed both AA and AAA this year (granted, AAA is PCL). Is his defense that bad? Slotting him at 2B (with a solid veteran backup that can be a serviceable starter) and shifting Story to SS would solve the IF (aside from C). Then they could extend Devers and still go hard after someone like Judge (or Nimmo for a third of the cost) and maybe a starter like Nola? Then trade some minors depth for good relievers. I'm probably simplifying this but I think giving Valdez a shot could be a nice way to save money on filling a hole.

As you say he's only really in the mix if they put him at second, where he's not supposed to be that great. He's been played at 2B and 3B his whole career with a handful of recent games in the OF. How Boston fills the SS slot in the off-season will determine whether he has a place at all in 2023. Assuming he's not a go-to guy because someone's injured and the rest of the IF can be shifted to let him play 2B.

I suppose you could always DH him and use him as an occasional fielder, but his bat would really have to be something to commit to that as a plan.

More generally, we've got a wave of IF players on the way up, and I'm not sure where he fits into that longer term. Assuming we don't trade anyone (we will, I'm sure):

2023
Casssssas plays 1B only.
Story is at SS/2B.
? at SS/2B.
Devers is at 3B only.

2024
Casas - 1B
Story/Yorke - 2B
Meyer/Lugo - SS
Devers(?) - 3B

2025
Casas/Jordan - 1B
Story/Yorke - 2B
Meyer/Lugo - SS
Devers(?)/Jordan - 3B

Obviously, not all those guys will pan out. . .but signing Devers and keeping Story and finding out Casas really is the ongoing 1B of the immediate future leaves not a lot of room to slot new guys in. And those seem like good possibilities.

We also have Downs, the aforementioned Valdez, Kadvas, Binelas. . .even Dalbec and Franchy. Maybe one of them figures it out. But where do you put them on the ML roster to let that happen?

I think we've all gotten the lesson that a move to a totally new position will not always go smoothly - so I hope the Sox are planning ahead.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Apologies if I missed this upthread, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of bringing on old friend Carlos Correa next year. Does having Correa replace Bogaerts turn the stomach? Sure. But he's a couple of years younger, probably a little better defensively, and the Puerto Rican roots doubtless appeal to Cora.

Not my favorite solution by a longshot, but worth mentioning.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

As you say he's only really in the mix if they put him at second, where he's not supposed to be that great. He's been played at 2B and 3B his whole career with a handful of recent games in the OF. How Boston fills the SS slot in the off-season will determine whether he has a place at all in 2023. Assuming he's not a go-to guy because someone's injured and the rest of the IF can be shifted to let him play 2B.

I suppose you could always DH him and use him as an occasional fielder, but his bat would really have to be something to commit to that as a plan.

More generally, we've got a wave of IF players on the way up, and I'm not sure where he fits into that longer term. Assuming we don't trade anyone (we will, I'm sure):

If Valdez can play passable 2b/3b/LF and can hit some, he's probably worth a bench spot. He doesn't have to factor into the long term plans. When Mayer etc are ready, they can sent him down or trade him if he proved himself to be of any worth.

Yorke, Jordan and Lugo aren't exactly locks either.

 

[Rovin Romine]

If Valdez can play passable 2b/3b/LF and can hit some, he's probably worth a bench spot. He doesn't have to factor into the long term plans. When Mayer etc are ready, they can sent him down or trade him if he proved himself to be of any worth.

Passible LF would probably require him to have natural talent there and spend the rest of the season working on it. But he's literally only had a handful of games at the position, and none in front of the Monster. And I have to think if he was that great, he'd have gotten more starts.

I mean, if he's already become a smooth fielding 2B and keeps the bat up, he might have a role. But otherwise I don't think you plan around him being on the team. If they get a better SS/2B option for 2023, (e.g., Iglesias) they'll go for that option without a second thought.

They'll probably go with a 4 man bench for 2023. One catcher spot. One for Arroyo as a utility/backup IF corner OF guy. One will be for someone who can actually play OF, I think. So that's one spot left. Maybe it goes to Hosmer, provided he's not a full time DH.

Or maybe he sets the world afire and gets a DH nod over Dalbec, et al.

Yorke, Jordan and Lugo aren't exactly locks either.

Sure. But the general point is that if 1B, 3B, and one of 2B/SS are locked down for the foreseeable future. . .you only have 1 IF spot to fill.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Sure. But the general point is that if 1B, 3B, and one of 2B/SS are locked down for the foreseeable future. . .you only have 1 IF spot to fill.

I guess but he's going to get AB whether due to injury or his bat forced the way.

edit: I think we might have a different definition of passable, too. I mean it to be "barely playable."

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

What if X doesn't opt out after this season? Will he get that much more than $80 million (assuming the '26 option vests) on the open market? Correa got $105.3 from the Twins and he's had a down year, too (though more HR than X so far). Is any team with the money to spend going to want to overpay for a SS who is a better bet to be a 2B or 3B long-term and who is coming off a year where he may not even finish with 15 HR and 75 RBI? And if he's not going to sign as a SS, does he get Story money or far lower?

 

[grimshaw]

What if X doesn't opt out after this season? Will he get that much more than $80 million (assuming the '26 option vests) on the open market? Correa got $105.3 from the Twins and he's had a down year, too (though more HR than X so far). Is any team with the money to spend going to want to overpay for a SS who is a better bet to be a 2B or 3B long-term and who is coming off a year where he may not even finish with 15 HR and 75 RBI? And if he's not going to sign as a SS, does he get Story money or far lower?

Not just you, but I don't think the board gives X enough credit for how good a ballplayer he is and is overly fixated on his lack of home runs.

His slugging is 11 points off of his career average, and ZIPS is projecting it to bounce back and be .483 for the rest of the season. His wRC+ is comparable to what he has done since 2018. The ball just hasn't left the yard as much.
He is on pace for 5.8 fWAR- currently #2 among shortstops and 14th in MLB. bWAR and fWAR both have this as his finest defensive season by far.

The guy works his ass off to improve in every part of his game and is a model of consistency and a great teammate. I think it's wishful thinking that he doesn't get a significant raise.

If and when he does change positions, his floor is still among the top tier in baseball because of his high OBP and excellent base running.

 

[ponch73]

Not just you, but I don't think the board gives X enough credit for how good a ballplayer he is and is overly fixated on his lack of home runs.

Here's the counterpoint:
His 2022 BABIP is the highest it's ever been at .375 and, yet, he's sitting at the lowest OPS (.825) of the past 5 years. He's not getting any younger, he's not a stellar defender at SS, and his home/road splits are very pronounced (for his career, his OPS is 115 points higher at home than on the road).

In my humble opinion, he's a good player, but not a great player, and should be paid accordingly, especially considering he's on the back 9 of his career.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Here's the counterpoint:
His 2022 BABIP is the highest it's ever been at .375 and, yet, he's sitting at the lowest OPS (.825) of the past 5 years. He's not getting any younger, he's not a stellar defender at SS, and his home/road splits are very pronounced (for his career, his OPS is 115 points higher at home than on the road).

In my humble opinion, he's a good player, but not a great player, and should be paid accordingly, especially considering he's on the back 9 of his career.

And looking at his career slugging % completely misses the point he's been a different player since 2018 and also doesn't factor in his high batting average. Slugging % is a terrible way to measure power.

He has an ISO of .142, it's the lowest it's been since 2017. And it's .072 points lower than it was from 2018-2021. That is significant and tells you a lot more than he's down a whole .007 slugging points. That is totally misleading and using stats wrong. Lets keep using raw slugging % to defend a guys clear dip in power because reasons.

He's a had a huge loss in power this year. A 37% drop even. But .007 slugging points!

 

[jon abbey]

.508 SLG at home this season, just .395 on the road, a bit like when LeMahieu was a FA a couple years ago, X may be more valuable to BOS than he would be anywhere else.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Xander

2014: 1 xbh/13.1 AB, .123 ISO
2015: 1 xbh/13.6 AB, .101 ISO
2016: 1xbh/11.9 AB, .152 ISO
2017: 1xbh/11.9 AB, .130 ISO
2018: 1 xbh/7.5 AB, .234 ISO
2019: 1 xbh/7.2 AB, .256 ISO
2020: 1 xbh/10.7 AB, .202 ISO
2021: 1 xbh/9.1 AB, .198 ISO
2022: 1xbh/10.3 AB, .142 ISO

2014-2017: .284/.339/.410, .335 BAbip
2018-2021: .299/.371/.523, ..330 BAbip
2022: .309/.379/.451, .377 BAbip

That's a clear dip in power. 2 years in a row, no less.

edit: Here's the MLB ISO numbers. Some of the dip this year may be league wide. But not close to all.
2018: .161
2019: .183
2020: .173
2021: .167
2022: .154

 

[jwbasham84]

Yeah I'll be guy who says no to Judge. You guys are all pissed about Sale (who isn't) and ask any Angels fan about Pujols (or half of their most recent signings). The guy is a big dude... he's athletic but he also says "will break my knees and my hips will start falling apart within 2 to 3 years".
I guarantee he'll be on the DL at least 60 games next season. He's exactly what Bloom needs to stay away from! He needs to find who will turn into someone at least close to Judge that's only 24 years old with 2 years in the majors and make a great deal for that guy then sign him to a long term deal.
I have no idea who but that's really the best plan and adding Judge might... MIGHT be good for 1 or 2 seasons before he completely falls apart is not a good idea.

I would love to know how you know Judge will start falling apart with 2 to 3 years. He has an injury history, but nothing appears to be chronic. Most players that play hard get dinged up from time to time.

As for your comparisons of Sale and Pujols, how are they similar? People are pissed about the Sale signing because he showed significant decline before DD backed up the truck and signed him a year earlier than was necessary. He has missed the most time with an injury that many of us on the board would have guessed was coming sooner rather than later due to the decline in performance. Not sure why DD couldn't have had him prove it in 2019. If it costs a little more so be it, at least we might have avoided the three years of no production at just over $84 Million. Pujols was signed by the angels after 11 years with St. Louis. Now Albert was a good athlete, but he was never as athletic as Judge. Judge was first called up in 2016 and had his rookie season in 2017, so only has a little over 5 years of wear and tear at the major league level. He's younger than Albert was when he will be signed and hopefully gets a slightly shorter deal. I mean even the Angels knew the end of Albert's deal wasn't going to be great, but no one saw him declining as fast as he did.

You could be right, but I think your reasoning may be flawed...

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I would love to know how you know Judge will start falling apart with 2 to 3 years. He has an injury history, but nothing appears to be chronic. Most players that play hard get dinged up from time to time.

As for your comparisons of Sale and Pujols, how are they similar? People are pissed about the Sale signing because he showed significant decline before DD backed up the truck and signed him a year earlier than was necessary. He has missed the most time with an injury that many of us on the board would have guessed was coming sooner rather than later due to the decline in performance. Not sure why DD couldn't have had him prove it in 2019. If it costs a little more so be it, at least we might have avoided the three years of no production at just over $84 Million. Pujols was signed by the angels after 11 years with St. Louis. Now Albert was a good athlete, but he was never as athletic as Judge. Judge was first called up in 2016 and had his rookie season in 2017, so only has a little over 5 years of wear and tear at the major league level. He's younger than Albert was when he will be signed and hopefully gets a slightly shorter deal. I mean even the Angels knew the end of Albert's deal wasn't going to be great, but no one saw him declining as fast as he did.

You could be right, but I think your reasoning may be flawed...

Well yeah... obviously I don't know and can't read the future but he's already "old"-ish (Judge). He plays hard and is incredibly athletic. But the guy has a massive frame which isn't good for the more athletic positions that require a lot of sprinting and body movement. A leaner type (like Mookie) likely has a better chance to stay healthy and he's already had some injuries (nothing horrible but enough to start slowing his game down). A big body type like Judge could be good for a long time as a DH or 1B (still not a great build for stretching and contorting) but would he be worth 10+ years at $32.5M per as a DH? You could say "occasional outfielder" but then you'd risk injury.
So obviously I don't know but I'm pretty confident in his starting to break down as soon as next year.

And.... to the bolded. The Cardinals clearly saw that he wasn't going to be worth what the Angels paid him so apparently they did and they continue to make shrewd moves and avoid contracts exactly like what Judge would be aiming for.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Well yeah... obviously I don't know and can't read the future but he's already "old"-ish (Judge). He plays hard and is incredibly athletic. But the guy has a massive frame which isn't good for the more athletic positions that require a lot of sprinting and body movement. A leaner type (like Mookie) likely has a better chance to stay healthy and he's already had some injuries (nothing horrible but enough to start slowing his game down). A big body type like Judge could be good for a long time as a DH or 1B (still not a great build for stretching and contorting) but would he be worth 10+ years at $32.5M per as a DH? You could say "occasional outfielder" but then you'd risk injury.
So obviously I don't know but I'm pretty confident in his starting to break down as soon as next year.

And.... to the bolded. The Cardinals clearly saw that he wasn't going to be worth what the Angels paid him so apparently they did and they continue to make shrewd moves and avoid contracts exactly like what Judge would be aiming for.

How do you feel Devers will age and soft body types in general? He's not exactly small. Unless by big you mean tall, but Judge is massive either way.

 

[chawson]

Well yeah... obviously I don't know and can't read the future but he's already "old"-ish (Judge). He plays hard and is incredibly athletic. But the guy has a massive frame which isn't good for the more athletic positions that require a lot of sprinting and body movement. A leaner type (like Mookie) likely has a better chance to stay healthy and he's already had some injuries (nothing horrible but enough to start slowing his game down). A big body type like Judge could be good for a long time as a DH or 1B (still not a great build for stretching and contorting) but would he be worth 10+ years at $32.5M per as a DH? You could say "occasional outfielder" but then you'd risk injury.
So obviously I don't know but I'm pretty confident in his starting to break down as soon as next year.

And.... to the bolded. The Cardinals clearly saw that he wasn't going to be worth what the Angels paid him so apparently they did and they continue to make shrewd moves and avoid contracts exactly like what Judge would be aiming for.

Did you know that Aaron Judge is actually faster by sprint speed than Mookie Betts?

There's still a long way to go in their careers, but it's worth noting for this conversation that it's the latter who has missed more time with chronic injury. I also don't see much similarity between Judge and Pujols, a guy whose real age has been so broadly disputed that it actively discourages comparison (nobody is signing Judge from his age-34 through age-43 seasons).

I'm all for a good discussion about what kinds of MLB players age well, but I think you're kind of shooting from the hip with a lot of this. There's plenty of worthwhile research about what kind of player traits decline in the post-steroid era. We'd also need to rely on some predictions about how the game might change over the next decade or so.

If anything, my sense is that you have it in reverse: small-bodied types that generate production through speed and defense tend to lose their value earlier in their careers than bigger types. I don't know that I agree, but I can see an argument that Mookie Betts' size doesn't set him up to age well over the course of the next decade, factoring wear and tear, etc. I'm more bullish on how Judge will. His body type seems like it would give him a solid foundation to retain bat speed well into his late-thirties.

Regardless, I don't think it's all that helpful to compare the two, which only invites a lot of complicated emotions. We know that plate discipline is one of the traits last to go, and both players have it in spades.

 

[grimshaw]

And looking at his career slugging % completely misses the point he's been a different player since 2018 and also doesn't factor in his high batting average. Slugging % is a terrible way to measure power.

He has an ISO of .142, it's the lowest it's been since 2017. And it's .072 points lower than it was from 2018-2021. That is significant and tells you a lot more than he's down a whole .007 slugging points. That is totally misleading and using stats wrong. Lets keep using raw slugging % to defend a guys clear dip in power because reasons.

He's a had a huge loss in power this year. A 37% drop even. But .007 slugging points!

Come on, slugging was one lesser point among many - not the foundation of my argument.
ZIPS is projecting his power (.189 ISO for the rest of the season) to return closer to his career average even with his BABIP dropping back to normal. Every other aspect of his game is as good or better and he's not dying of old age.

Regardless, I don't believe he won't be paid better.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Regardless, I don't believe he won't be paid better.

He will. 4/80 isn't hard to beat. He might get offered more from the Red Sox.

 

[effectivelywild]

Please provide proof of how you “know” this.

Take THAT for data

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

View attachment 54191

Take THAT for data

Well, that settles it!

 

[The Boomer]

Can someone fill me in on why we can't be more excited by Enmanuel Valdez? He's crushed both AA and AAA this year (granted, AAA is PCL). Is his defense that bad? Slotting him at 2B (with a solid veteran backup that can be a serviceable starter) and shifting Story to SS would solve the IF (aside from C). Then they could extend Devers and still go hard after someone like Judge (or Nimmo for a third of the cost) and maybe a starter like Nola? Then trade some minors depth for good relievers. I'm probably simplifying this but I think giving Valdez a shot could be a nice way to save money on filling a hole.

I thought the same thing. Diminutive Vladez offensively reminds me of Joe Morgan. He likely never gets to that level, but he seems like a sleeper. However, he might be as good as if not better than Brock Holt as a regular utility player. Casas at 1B with Hosmer at DH, and visa versa, requires no external additions either. Devers is the priority, but is he the long term answer at 3B? He probably wants to maximize his pay at the position he wants to play (no matter how good he is defensively) like Bogaerts. Both could be gone along with JD Martinez. Do they make qualifying offers to Bogaerts and Martinez? Both could be back next year if they do or they will end up with a bonus second round pick (assuming they cut salary under the luxury tax limit in time). Unless Devers defense will improve, he is a future DH/1B. One of the developmental shortstops might eventually be the third baseman of the future. The days of diminishing returns premium spending, except for homegrown players like Devers still in their prime, are likely over.

 

[mikcou]

Did you know that Aaron Judge is actually faster by sprint speed than Mookie Betts?

There's still a long way to go in their careers, but it's worth noting for this conversation that it's the latter who has missed more time with chronic injury. I also don't see much similarity between Judge and Pujols, a guy whose real age has been so broadly disputed that it actively discourages comparison (nobody is signing Judge from his age-34 through age-43 seasons).

I'm all for a good discussion about what kinds of MLB players age well, but I think you're kind of shooting from the hip with a lot of this. There's plenty of worthwhile research about what kind of player traits decline in the post-steroid era. We'd also need to rely on some predictions about how the game might change over the next decade or so.

If anything, my sense is that you have it in reverse: small-bodied types that generate production through speed and defense tend to lose their value earlier in their careers than bigger types. I don't know that I agree, but I can see an argument that Mookie Betts' size doesn't set him up to age well over the course of the next decade, factoring wear and tear, etc. I'm more bullish on how Judge will. His body type seems like it would give him a solid foundation to retain bat speed well into his late-thirties.

Regardless, I don't think it's all that helpful to compare the two, which only invites a lot of complicated emotions. We know that plate discipline is one of the traits last to go, and both players have it in spades.

I dont think its the small/big generally - its that theres very minimal history of guys of his size and almost all of them have ended pretty poorly in their early to mid 30s. I'd be interested as to why you think a body type like Judge is likely to age well when almost all of his predecessors in the 6'6"+ 240+ category have not (there arent a ton to begin who were ever good to be fair).

I think there are two points here: 1) Guys that tall tend to have leg problems starting at an earlier age; 2) strikeout rates are high to begin with in the set and increase quickly post 31/32. My theory is that guys of that length have much more significant issues with reduced bat speed than more typical sized players - their arms are just so long that their plate coverage declines much more for the same reduction in bat speed.

Giancarlo Stanton, although not quite the player as Judge, has declined pretty hard in his early 30s. All of the Adam Dunn/Corey Hart/Richie Sexson/Russel Branyan. A lot of those players didnt have Judge's peak, but they all had similar high K rates and all kinda fell off a cliff in their early 30s. Even a guy like Frank Thomas, who was a much better/more complete hitter than Judge (as Thomas had a pretty elite bat to ball hit tool), had a really significant drop off in his early 30s - he was still a pretty decent player, but he started as a 330/440/600 guy so dropping .

At the end of the day, its hard to find a guy who's 6'6"/6'7"+ who didnt have a marked decline around 31-33. Its a small sample to begin with, but I wouldnt be betting that Judge is the outlier of that group.

 

[biollante]

We will probably around .500 next year. I don't like change and I don't like losing.

 

[effectivelywild]

Even a guy like Frank Thomas, who was a much better/more complete hitter than Judge (as Thomas had a pretty elite bat to ball hit tool), had a really significant drop off in his early 30s - he was still a pretty decent player, but he started as a 330/440/600 guy so dropping .

Ok, but maybe the solution for Judge might be for him to take the Nugenix Total-T supplement to help ward off this decline. I have it on good authority that Judge's wife Samantha will also be pleased with the results.

 

[mikcou]

Ok, but maybe the solution for Judge might be for him to take the Nugenix Total-T supplement to help ward off this decline. I have it on good authority that Judge's wife Samantha will also be pleased with the results.

This is just excellent

 

[simplicio]

Did you know that Aaron Judge is actually faster by sprint speed than Mookie Betts?

That's hardly fair, his legs are like 3 feet longer.

 

[snowmanny]

We will probably around .500 next year. I don't like change and I don't like losing.

I think this is the essential issue. Are they going to genuinely try to field a championship caliber team in 2023 or are they targeting 2024? Because if the answer is 2024 then multi-year contracts to free agents make less sense and holding on to prospect capital makes more sense.

If we are doing 2014/15 again, OK, but there better be a plan for the following year. And I assume Henry would expect a winner in 2024.

 

[GB5]

If Xander isn’t here next year, I would be absolutely stunned if anyone except Story is the SS next year. This may have been the plan all along since the day he signed. I don’t think it’s right, as Story has underwhelmed with the bat and I don’t recall his defensive metrics to be all that great in Colorado last year.

 

[Auger34]

I am guessing the the plan is to let Bogaerts walk, move Story to SS, and sign multiple second tier free agents and hope that a few hit. If a higher tier FA is left standing in the game of musical chairs then Bloom may attempt to sign them. This has been his MO his entire Red Sox tenure, I have no idea why anyone would expect him to no big game hunting or change that this off-season

 

[scottyno]

If Xander isn’t here next year, I would be absolutely stunned if anyone except Story is the SS next year. This may have been the plan all along since the day he signed. I don’t think it’s right, as Story has underwhelmed with the bat and I don’t recall his defensive metrics to be all that great in Colorado last year.

He had the 4th best DRS at short last year at +9 runs

 

[Apisith]

If Correa opts out, he would be a really good signing for SS. Better than Bogaerts defensively, younger and his batted ball metrics this year are fine. The competition will also be less because every other big market team has a long-term solution at SS.

 

[BaseballJones]

If Correa opts out, he would be a really good signing for SS. Better than Bogaerts defensively, younger and his batted ball metrics this year are fine. The competition will also be less because every other big market team has a long-term solution at SS.

Correa would be a good player for the Sox but I wouldn’t consider it to be a good signing until I knew what the contract was.

 

[Ragnar Danneskjöld]

If Correa opts out, he would be a really good signing for SS. Better than Bogaerts defensively, younger and his batted ball metrics this year are fine. The competition will also be less because every other big market team has a long-term solution at SS.

Dansby Swanson - 2022 fWAR 4.8 Age - 28
Trea Turner - 2022 fWAR 4.4 Age - 29
Xander Bogaerts - 2022 fWAR 4.4 Age - 29
Carlos Correa - 2022 fWAR 1.6 Age - 27

Carlos may be the youngest of the group but he definitely is not producing as well at the other pending top SS free agents. He is also a former Astro and has some not insignificant injury history.

I'll admit that for some reason I thought Xander was 2-3 years older than Trea and Dansby but he is basically the same age which sort of neutralizes that across the potential choices.

I think with Marcelo in the wings you prioritize whoever wants the least amount of years / money?

My gut says that ends up being Dansby?

 

[Ragnar Danneskjöld]

I am guessing the the plan is to let Bogaerts walk, move Story to SS, and sign multiple second tier free agents and hope that a few hit. If a higher tier FA is left standing in the game of musical chairs then Bloom may attempt to sign them. This has been his MO his entire Red Sox tenure, I have no idea why anyone would expect him to no big game hunting or change that this off-season

You should expect it to change because the Red Sox have not had a payroll less than 197M since 2017.

I have them at around 98M for 2023 assuming they pickup the Pham, Paxton, Sawamura options, Xander opts out and before any of the Arb players get a raise just using their 2022 salaries. So this is the first time Chaim has had 90-100M to work with and the chance to be competitive for a high tier FA.

 

[nvalvo]

If Xander isn’t here next year, I would be absolutely stunned if anyone except Story is the SS next year. This may have been the plan all along since the day he signed. I don’t think it’s right, as Story has underwhelmed with the bat and I don’t recall his defensive metrics to be all that great in Colorado last year.

People keep saying this, but I really don't think it's a certainty. Story was available for what he signed for (i.e. literally half of what Corey Seager got) because there are questions about the health of the elbow in his throwing arm. This injury may preclude him from making throws from SS, but hasn't been an issue at 2B. He injured the elbow in May 2021.

Now, I don't know if that May 2021 injury is fully healed, but neither do you. The team probably has a decent idea where things stand with that, though. We'll see. Maybe he's the post-Bogaerts SS — if he's healthy enough, that would be an amazing fit — but I certainly wouldn't be stunned if he isn't.

As for his defensive metrics in Colorado, I don't know what your recollections are, but between 2016 and 2021, he had the best UZR-based dWAR of any full-time SS not named Francisco Lindor, Brandon Crawford, or Elvis Andrus, and his DRS-based dWAR was much better. The Statcast OAA has him at +18 during that span, tied for 12th. His 2021 numbers weren't his career best, but they were still good.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Would Sox fans accept Correa given his history?

 

[YTF]

Would Sox fans accept Correa given his history?

Without doubt, unless/until he played like shit.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Would Sox fans accept Correa given his history?

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I wonder if Baltimore’s ascendancy changes the plan for next year at all. They’re already playoff contenders, Toronto has most of their important players signed for a little bit, Tampa isn’t going anywhere, NY maybe has some uncertainty because of the Judge situation but I assume he’s coming back… I guess you could shoot for an 85ish-win team that overachieves a la 2021, but that doesn’t sound like much of a plan to me.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

He had already been here at that point, and won a title. Bit different.

 

[gattman]

I think this is the essential issue. Are they going to genuinely try to field a championship caliber team in 2023 or are they targeting 2024? Because if the answer is 2024 then multi-year contracts to free agents make less sense and holding on to prospect capital makes more sense.

If we are doing 2014/15 again, OK, but there better be a plan for the following year. And I assume Henry would expect a winner in 2024.

I think there is a very good chance 2023 is a bridge year. There’s a lot of talent walking out the door (JDM, Eo, Kike, Wacha, Hill & likely X) and the minor league pipeline is more quantity, and the skill is in the lower minors. This will be hard for some fans to take but there’s not some magic bullet for being great in 2023.

And of course, hanging over all this is the Devers negotiations. If he walks or they trade him, then this team will look very different.

Bloom’s got his work cut out for him and not a lot of time. He’s on the clock for 2023.

 

[scottyno]

I think there is a very good chance 2023 is a bridge year. There’s a lot of talent walking out the door (JDM, Eo, Kike, Wacha, Hill & likely X) and the minor league pipeline is more quantity, and the skill is in the lower minors. This will be hard for some fans to take but there’s not some magic bullet for being great in 2023.

And of course, hanging over all this is the Devers negotiations. If he walks or they trade him, then this team will look very different.

Bloom’s got his work cut out for him and not a lot of time. He’s on the clock for 2023.

Spending the $100m correctly that's coming off the books from those 6 guys plus Price goes a long way to being great in 2023.

I think it's also really unlikely that all 6 of those guys are gone, but of course some of them will be.

 

[BaseballJones]

Bloom’s got his work cut out for him and not a lot of time. He’s on the clock for 2023.

Says who? What makes anyone think that ownership has him “on the clock” for 2023?

 

[Rovin Romine]

I think there is a very good chance 2023 is a bridge year. There’s a lot of talent walking out the door (JDM, Eo, Kike, Wacha, Hill & likely X) and the minor league pipeline is more quantity, and the skill is in the lower minors. This will be hard for some fans to take but there’s not some magic bullet for being great in 2023.

And of course, hanging over all this is the Devers negotiations. If he walks or they trade him, then this team will look very different.

Bloom’s got his work cut out for him and not a lot of time. He’s on the clock for 2023.

I'd agree that there's work to be done - but perhaps not as much as one might think. This was the year of suffering through dead-weight and dealing with one-year stopgaps. Young players, and players under control who could be here in 2023 and 2024 are:

1B: Casas
2B: Story
SS: (Arroyo)
3B: (Dalbec)
LF:
CF: Duran
RF: Verdugo
C: McGuire (Wong/Hernandez)
DH: Hosmer
UT: Refsnyder

SP: Sale, Paxton(?), Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Seabold
RP: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, Austin, Sawamura,

Maybe 2023 jumps: P: Mata, Murphy, German. IF: Downs, Valdez. Oddballs: Franchy.

So there's work to be done, and some of those holes can be addressed with one or two year FA contracts. . .but I don't think 2023 is actually going to be a sort of drastic "they can't contend" year. Devers will start at 3B and anchor a lineup, unless he's traded, which will be for something decent. Their starting pitching looks like it only needs one signing for depth. Even if only one of Sale/Paxton are effective.

They'll also have the following coming off the books:
Xander (maybe) - 20m
JD - 19m
Eovaldi - 17m
Price - 16
JBJ - 9m
Hernandez - 7m
Vaz - 7m
Wacha - 7
Hill - 5
Strahm - 3
Plawecki - 2
Robles - 2
Shaw - 1.5

That's about 96 M, give or take whatever applies to JBJ. If Xander goes 116 M. And of those leaving, the only ones I'd like to see back are: Eovaldi, Strahm, and maybe Wacha. Xander at the right price, of course.

 

[snowmanny]

Says who? What makes anyone think that ownership has him “on the clock” for 2023?

2024 seems to me to be the more likely go for it year but we will see.

 

[sezwho]

I'd agree that there's work to be done - but perhaps not as much as one might think. This was the year of suffering through dead-weight and dealing with one-year stopgaps. Young players, and players under control who could be here in 2023 and 2024 are:

1B: Casas
2B: Story
SS: (Arroyo)
3B: (Dalbec)
LF:
CF: Duran
RF: Verdugo
C: McGuire (Wong/Hernandez)
DH: Hosmer
UT: Refsnyder

SP: Sale, Paxton(?), Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello, Seabold
RP: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, Austin, Sawamura,

Maybe 2023 jumps: P: Mata, Murphy, German. IF: Downs, Valdez. Oddballs: Franchy.

So there's work to be done, and some of those holes can be addressed with one or two year FA contracts. . .but I don't think 2023 is actually going to be a sort of drastic "they can't contend" year. Devers will start at 3B and anchor a lineup, unless he's traded, which will be for something decent. Their starting pitching looks like it only needs one signing for depth. Even if only one of Sale/Paxton are effective.

They'll also have the following coming off the books:
Xander (maybe) - 20m
JD - 19m
Eovaldi - 17m
Price - 16
JBJ - 9m
Hernandez - 7m
Vaz - 7m
Wacha - 7
Hill - 5
Strahm - 3
Plawecki - 2
Robles - 2
Shaw - 1.5

That's about 96 M, give or take whatever applies to JBJ. If Xander goes 116 M. And of those leaving, the only ones I'd like to see back are: Eovaldi, Strahm, and maybe Wacha. Xander at the right price, of course.

Admittedly it seems less overwhelming this way, but there are of course many holes to fill and seemingly a willingness to only sign contracts that are short or represent significant value. Feel free to disagree, but Story counts here for me. Relative to the market, I thought it was a steal.

Maybe the money plus depth of middle tier prospects opens attractive trading doors, but otherwise he’s going to need to find value at every one of those slots before making a move.

Maybe the luck breaks their way next year, as it did second half of the last and didn’t this year, but I’m still fearful of a dumpster diving rebuild.

The #1 truth serum question is when did Bloom say this would work out when presenting to Henry. How many bridge years?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don’t like Duran at all but I’ve dealt with other Sox players that I disliked even more and was happy when they performed well.
But I seriously don’t think that he’s already being written off as a CF’er.
I have a belief now that the jump from AAA to the ML is now a bigger jump for position players than ever before and the adjustment period will be longer except for the few top tier can’t miss types.
There are some things I like about Durans game that need some time and he won’t improve in AAA any longer. I think we’ll see him improving the next month and a half and a better player in ‘23. I hope his bat can improve enough for him to be in LF and we can get Cedanne in CF in ‘24