What does 2023 look like?

Cesar Crespo

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Crawford is probably best thought of as a #6 at this point, not the #5 by design. Mostly because that means we'd have very little depth after him.

Who we control for 2023:
SP: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello. (Crawford/Winckowski/Seabold).​
PB: Houck, Schreiber, Barnes, German, Kelly, Taylor, Danish, Brasier​
There are 3 other guys semi close to the Majors in Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter and Thad Ward. Walter hasn't pitched in awhile and Ward is still in AA. Mata is currently pitching in AAA and they had him go 100 pitches his last start. This was despite being at 92 pitches to end the 5th. He's possibly a wild card for 2023. He definitely has a higher ceiling than any of the AA/AAA farmhands outside of Bello (and maybe Walter, who I think ends up in relief) and if he finishes 2022 strong, I could see him leapfrogging over the Crawford/Winckowski/Seabolds of the world.

There's also Chris Murphy but he has fallen apart in AAA.
 

LoLsapien

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I think it's more likely we see Christian Koss at SS than we do a SS rotation of Christian Arroyo and Dalbec in 2023. I don't think we'll see Christian Koss in 2023.
We have a guy named Chris Koss in the system? That's fantastic.

While I mentioned Bobby largely in jest, I was intrigued hearing about his performance at SS in a fill-in roll. If he could be the league average bat that he's projected to be (99 WRC+ ZIPS, 104 STEAMER, same for the other systems per fangraphs) that would make him a top 15 bat for the position. There's really somewhat fungible bats at SS past the top 7 this year. Even Bobby's actual 2022 WRC+ of 80 would put him in the Baez, Kiner-Falefa range offensively. Hopefully he gets a tryout there in his last weeks in Worcester (doubtful). If 2023 is another bridge year, and Bogie elects not to return, I'd prefer to go cheap at the position and wish-cast on Mayer for '24 than invest big money on a Correa or Turner.
 

nighthob

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What is Bogaerts worth?

$32 million/year for 7 years? (The same as Lindor and Seagar.) More? Less?
That's probably fair. I was thinking 5-6 years at $32.5 million. They need a minimum of two years to get to Mayer, and probably more like 2.5.
 

LoLsapien

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That's probably fair. I was thinking 5-6 years at $32.5 million. They need a minimum of two years to get to Mayer, and probably more like 2.5.
The way folks whine about Bogies in the game threads and elsewhere I was kind of shocked to see the stats show him as a league average or better SS by DRS (1, 12th in the league just before Lindor), UZR/150 (4.3, 4th in the league), defensive runs saved above average (8.4, 8th). This is despite lousy range (RngR -1.3, good for 19th just ahead of Brandon Crawford and Jose Iglesias.. I loved watching him play). I can't translate the other metrics so I won't try. Anyways, haven't looked at how he's been trending but I didn't realize the metrics liked Mr. bogaerts defensively.
 

Cesar Crespo

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We have a guy named Chris Koss in the system? That's fantastic.

While I mentioned Bobby largely in jest, I was intrigued hearing about his performance at SS in a fill-in roll. If he could be the league average bat that he's projected to be (99 WRC+ ZIPS, 104 STEAMER, same for the other systems per fangraphs) that would make him a top 15 bat for the position. There's really somewhat fungible bats at SS past the top 7 this year. Even Bobby's actual 2022 WRC+ of 80 would put him in the Baez, Kiner-Falefa range offensively. Hopefully he gets a tryout there in his last weeks in Worcester (doubtful). If 2023 is another bridge year, and Bogie elects not to return, I'd prefer to go cheap at the position and wish-cast on Mayer for '24 than invest big money on a Correa or Turner.
He's the SS for Portland. They traded Yoan Aybar for him in 2020. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=koss--000chr

Average to above average at 2b/SS and has started to play some CF. All his tools are average (ish) but he has some terrible plate control (25bb/127k).
 

dhappy42

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That's probably fair. I was thinking 5-6 years at $32.5 million. They need a minimum of two years to get to Mayer, and probably more like 2.5.
Besides Boston, who are the likely bidders for Bogaerts? I've heard the Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals mentioned. Who else?
 

nighthob

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Besides Boston, who are the likely bidders for Bogaerts? I've heard the Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals mentioned. Who else?
The Phlilies have Stott waiting in the wings, they might prefer to spend their money elsewhere. St. Louis I could definitely see as they’re in the same boat as Boston needing someone to hold the position down for the next 2-4 years (their best SS prospects are in A ball, and not as good as Mayer). On other hand if Arenado opts out they no longer have that subsidized deal keeping their payroll down. I suppose they could sign Bogaerts, move Nolan Gorman to third and backfill second for the time being.
 

Sox Puppet

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As a side note, I wish we could make the kinds of trades that St. Louis has executed in recent years. The Goldschmidt and Arenado trades were total heists. Who knows, maybe with our improving farm system Bloom will be able to pull off something similar.

EDIT: it's obviously too soon to judge, but the Jordan Montgomery trade is also looking like a big win for StL.
 

radsoxfan

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What is Bogaerts worth?

$32 million/year for 7 years? (The same as Lindor and Seagar.) More? Less?
Something clearly more than 3/60. That’s all you really need to know to be sure the opt out issue is irrelevant. I honestly don’t know what I’d want the Red Sox to be willing to spend.

Kennedy is trying to shift the blame on Xander leaving by saying he’s under contract for a long time and it’s his choice if he wants to opt out. “He opted out and left, don’t blame us if he’s not back”. It’s insanity.

His contract is over and he will be a free agent. The last 3 years of these opt out contracts are meaningless if the player gets there and is worth more on the open market, the Red Sox know this.

If Xander opts out and someone plays him more than the Red Sox want to that’s fine, just say you want to spend the money on someone else. Don’t pretend it’s Xander’s fault.
 

Rovin Romine

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There are 3 other guys semi close to the Majors in Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter and Thad Ward. Walter hasn't pitched in awhile and Ward is still in AA. Mata is currently pitching in AAA and they had him go 100 pitches his last start. This was despite being at 92 pitches to end the 5th. He's possibly a wild card for 2023. He definitely has a higher ceiling than any of the AA/AAA farmhands outside of Bello (and maybe Walter, who I think ends up in relief) and if he finishes 2022 strong, I could see him leapfrogging over the Crawford/Winckowski/Seabolds of the world.

There's also Chris Murphy but he has fallen apart in AAA.
I think Crawford has shown an ability to get out ML hitters and go deep into games. He hasn't been good the last few starts, but there is the injury question. Still, the league could have figured out something.

Winckowski is just very hittable, with little margin for error. Seabold, I suspect, may be of a like mold. (Don't get me wrong, I'm not a deeply-invested prospect humper; I'd love for these guys to succeed, but I don't see plus stuff from either of them. And, while not absolutely required, plus stuff gives you an option that control/selection only does not.) As emergency guys, or #5s for a stretch, sure. . .but I'd have to be somehow convinced they can do more.

Bello is sort of the opposite of those two. He's got the stuff - he just needs the pitch-ability we've seen in his last start.

Likewise Mata, and Walter (injured.)

For 2023, can they catch competence in a bottle with 2 of Bello, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold?

If they do I guess it would be in that order.
 

BravesField

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Story was IL'd in May 2021 for an elbow injury, which led to him changing his throwing motion and the velocity on his throws cratering (see the chart in the other thread). This was much discussed when he was a free agent, and a likely factor leading him to be a relatively affordable option for us — at second.

That is the (sole) question about his availability at SS — his range, hands, and athleticism are fantastic. It's just the question of his throws.
Which injury? Was it this one? For Story's elbow inflammation, he lost 6 games in 2018 and I think 10 games last year.

Rockies’ Trevor Story goes on injured list with elbow inflammation – The Denver Post
 

YTF

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Something clearly more than 3/60. That’s all you really need to know to be sure the opt out issue is irrelevant. I honestly don’t know what I’d want the Red Sox to be willing to spend.

Kennedy is trying to shift the blame on Xander leaving by saying he’s under contract for a long time and it’s his choice if he wants to opt out. “He opted out and left, don’t blame us if he’s not back”. It’s insanity.

His contract is over and he will be a free agent. The last 3 years of these opt out contracts are meaningless if the player gets there and is worth more on the open market, the Red Sox know this.

If Xander opts out and someone plays him more than the Red Sox want to that’s fine, just say you want to spend the money on someone else. Don’t pretend it’s Xander’s fault.
IMO it's not blame shifting, it's the truth. By the same token, Bogaerts has every right to exercise that option. No one is at fault here, there's no blame and there's no need to make the statement you're suggesting until you know for sure that another team is willing to pay more than you feel the player is worth. Why would you publicly cut your own throat like that with some 4 weeks left to the season?
 

JBJ_HOF

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People are crazy if they think Bogaerts is getting Lindor or Seager money and term. MAYBE either or. They got those deals because the teams got multiple years of their prime 20s seasons. Bogaerts signed those away to the Red Sox.
 

BravesField

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Oct 27, 2021
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Please google 'Trevor Story arm strength', it's not the job of the board to do this for you.
I saw that, but I'm still puzzled on how a short stop, with I guess "questionable arm strength" was able to play so many innings last year and have a good fielding %. But where I was really puzzled is how he was able to be the second best short stop at turning the double play. Now it seems to me that you really have to quickly get that ball over to first to accomplish that. How was he able to perform that?

I'm also puzzled on why Chaim Bloom would sign any player whose arm strength in in question. 6 years at 140M is a lot of money.

If I'm wrong, OK....but then it may stand to reason if he can't play SS any longer, when will he not be able to play second?
 

snowmanny

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I saw that, but I'm still puzzled on how a short stop, with I guess "questionable arm strength" was able to play so many innings last year and have a good fielding %.
If your velocity at SS drops 10 mph then batters you were getting out by half a step are now safe by half a step. And it’s scored a hit, not an error. So your fielding percentage is unchanged.
 

Max Power

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I saw that, but I'm still puzzled on how a short stop, with I guess "questionable arm strength" was able to play so many innings last year and have a good fielding %. But where I was really puzzled is how he was able to be the second best short stop at turning the double play. Now it seems to me that you really have to quickly get that ball over to first to accomplish that. How was he able to perform that?

I'm also puzzled on why Chaim Bloom would sign any player whose arm strength in in question. 6 years at 140M is a lot of money.

If I'm wrong, OK....but then it may stand to reason if he can't play SS any longer, when will he not be able to play second?
What does fielding percentage have to do with arm strength? You also don't need any arm strength to start a 6-4-3 double play. You don't even need much for a 4-6-3, since it's a less than 90 foot throw.

The facts are very clear. Trevor Story had an arm injury. When he came back his max throwing speed was significantly less than before. He signed with the Red Sox and hasn't played a single inning at short. His throw from shortstop position a couple nights ago looked like a Kareem sky hook.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think Crawford has shown an ability to get out ML hitters and go deep into games. He hasn't been good the last few starts, but there is the injury question. Still, the league could have figured out something.

Winckowski is just very hittable, with little margin for error. Seabold, I suspect, may be of a like mold. (Don't get me wrong, I'm not a deeply-invested prospect humper; I'd love for these guys to succeed, but I don't see plus stuff from either of them. And, while not absolutely required, plus stuff gives you an option that control/selection only does not.) As emergency guys, or #5s for a stretch, sure. . .but I'd have to be somehow convinced they can do more.

Bello is sort of the opposite of those two. He's got the stuff - he just needs the pitch-ability we've seen in his last start.

Likewise Mata, and Walter (injured.)

For 2023, can they catch competence in a bottle with 2 of Bello, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold?

If they do I guess it would be in that order.
I don't like Winckowski or Seabold either, fwiw. I was liking Chris Murphy earlier in the year but he's been a different guy in AAA. After this wave of pitchers, it's going to be awhile before we see another. I don't think AA will have any legit SP prospects in 2023 to start the year (assuming Ward starts in AAA).

The next wave is Luis Perales (19), Elmer Rodriguez Cruz (19), Paez (18). I guess they have Drohan in AA. Meh. I get their strategy of signing a bunch of cheap DSL and HS pitchers though. They've gotten lucky with Bello (28k), Mata (25k) and Perales (75k). They haven't been so lucky with the big bonus pitchers. Kopech and Houck are doing ok though.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think Crawford has shown an ability to get out ML hitters and go deep into games. He hasn't been good the last few starts, but there is the injury question. Still, the league could have figured out something.

Winckowski is just very hittable, with little margin for error. Seabold, I suspect, may be of a like mold. (Don't get me wrong, I'm not a deeply-invested prospect humper; I'd love for these guys to succeed, but I don't see plus stuff from either of them. And, while not absolutely required, plus stuff gives you an option that control/selection only does not.) As emergency guys, or #5s for a stretch, sure. . .but I'd have to be somehow convinced they can do more.

Bello is sort of the opposite of those two. He's got the stuff - he just needs the pitch-ability we've seen in his last start.

Likewise Mata, and Walter (injured.)

For 2023, can they catch competence in a bottle with 2 of Bello, Crawford, Mata, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold?

If they do I guess it would be in that order.
I’m actually still bullish on Seabold ending up as a good mid rotation guy with some great and terrible stretches. He’s got a great K/BB ratio and a deep arsenal of very good pitches. Nothing dominant but a good game plan with his control and mix can go a long way.
He just looked really unlucky in his ML starts to me.
Winckowski, agree that he’s deep depth starter likely. Maybe it’ll play up in a relief role? Maybe some other team will see more and trade for him?
 

snowmanny

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A 110 foot throw at 75 mph will get there in exactly one second.
A 110 foot throw at 83 mph will get there in 0.9 seconds.
90 mph brings you down to 0.83 seconds.

If his arm is shot Story is a (very very good) second baseman.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I don't like Winckowski or Seabold either, fwiw. I was liking Chris Murphy earlier in the year but he's been a different guy in AAA. After this wave of pitchers, it's going to be awhile before we see another. I don't think AA will have any legit SP prospects in 2023 to start the year (assuming Ward starts in AAA).

The next wave is Luis Perales (19), Elmer Rodriguez Cruz (19), Paez (18). I guess they have Drohan in AA. Meh. I get their strategy of signing a bunch of cheap DSL and HS pitchers though. They've gotten lucky with Bello (28k), Mata (25k) and Perales (75k). They haven't been so lucky with the big bonus pitchers. Kopech and Houck are doing ok though.
Not a fan of Winkleman?
 

Rovin Romine

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I’m actually still bullish on Seabold ending up as a good mid rotation guy with some great and terrible stretches. He’s got a great K/BB ratio and a deep arsenal of very good pitches. Nothing dominant but a good game plan with his control and mix can go a long way.
He just looked really unlucky in his ML starts to me.
Winckowski, agree that he’s deep depth starter likely. Maybe it’ll play up in a relief role? Maybe some other team will see more and trade for him?
I'd love for any of them to work out as starters, or transition to a contributing role, or bring something back in trade. SSS applies all around here.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not a fan of Winkleman?
I am. He'll be in A+ to start next year though. He probably has the most exciting arm outside of anyone not named Perales below AA. Some would say even more. All these 20 and under pitchers have such a wide range of outcomes depending on how they physically develop. Hard to get too excited by any of them until they start producing some in A+ and AA though.

Wikelman has actually been dominating for awhile now. Last 7 games: 2.18 era, 33.0 ip, 22 hits, 8r/8er, 10bb/39k. .186/.271/.220 on a .275 BAbip. 29.3% K%, 7.5% BB%.
Off to a great start in A+ too: 4 games, 2.65 era, 17.0 ip, 13 hits, 5r/5er, 6bb/23k. .213/.314/.262 on a .342 BAbip. 32.9% K%, 8.6% BB%. Overlaps.

Feels like he's been in the system forever but he doesn't turn 21 until March.
 

radsoxfan

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IMO it's not blame shifting, it's the truth. By the same token, Bogaerts has every right to exercise that option. No one is at fault here, there's no blame and there's no need to make the statement you're suggesting until you know for sure that another team is willing to pay more than you feel the player is worth. Why would you publicly cut your own throat like that with some 4 weeks left to the season?
The only reason for Kennedy to go out of his way to publicly state that Xander is under contract with the Red Sox for a long time is to make it seem like he would be the one leaving the Red Sox. That's blame shifting. This is not a JD situation when the future contract was roughly similar to his current value and an opt out was debatable.

The last 2023-2025 seasons of the contract (barring a major injury before of the end of the season) are already entirely meaningless. Xander is functionally under contract to fix my pool in 2023 as much as he is under contract to play for the Boston Red Sox for 2023.

He is going to be a FA. Pay him or don't pay him. But don't pretend Xander is opting out and it's his fault if he leaves.
 

BravesField

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What does fielding percentage have to do with arm strength? You also don't need any arm strength to start a 6-4-3 double play. You don't even need much for a 4-6-3, since it's a less than 90 foot throw.

The facts are very clear. Trevor Story had an arm injury. When he came back his max throwing speed was significantly less than before. He signed with the Red Sox and hasn't played a single inning at short. His throw from shortstop position a couple nights ago looked like a Kareem sky hook.
I really don't want to drag this out.

My point on fielding % was to show that he played the entire year of 2021 as a SS. The Rockies never moved him off that position, but he can't play it any longer, neigh, he can't even be considered to play it.

Your facts are not clear. Trevor Story did not have an arm injury. He had elbow inflammation. Fine line I grant you, but it's all semantics.

So, Chaim gave 140M to a player with an "injured" arm and throws like he has a Kareem Sky Hook.

OK.... We all have our opinions on what happens in 2023, but you know no one on this board has any vote or input to Chaim/Cora where the troops are going to be positioned. If X signs on, none of this matters.

(Unless Devers leaves, and they move X to 3rd, and we need to find a SS.......No....No...I'm keeping my mouth shut going forward)
 

effectivelywild

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I really don't want to drag this out.

My point on fielding % was to show that he played the entire year of 2021 as a SS. The Rockies never moved him off that position, but he can't play it any longer, neigh, he can't even be considered to play it.

Your facts are not clear. Trevor Story did not have an arm injury. He had elbow inflammation. Fine line I grant you, but it's all semantics.

So, Chaim gave 140M to a player with an "injured" arm and throws like he has a Kareem Sky Hook.

OK.... We all have our opinions on what happens in 2023, but you know no one on this board has any vote or input to Chaim/Cora where the troops are going to be positioned. If X signs on, none of this matters.

(Unless Devers leaves, and they move X to 3rd, and we need to find a SS.......No....No...I'm keeping my mouth shut going forward)
I replied to you with this earlier to show a couple of articles that directly mentioned reduced arm strength regarding Story, but it looks like you missed them, so here you go:

It's been pretty widely reported on, especially here with the signing. Not that SI necessarily is a paragon of reporting, but they mention it here and source reporting from here as well.
Both of those are articles about why the Yankees shouldn't sign Story as a SS due to concerns about his arm strength. While they site anonymous "multiple scouts," (and it is likely both articles are using the same sources, especially given similar phrasing), this is far from the only time I have heard this sentiment---that Story's arm may no longer hold up at SS long term.

This article also references concern about his arm strength. This tweet also suggests that Story's arm strength has been sliding since 2020. Also mentioned here.

Now this may be a case of a rumor being repeated over and over and making it seem more grounded in fact than speculation than it truly is, but my point is that this is part of the narrative surrounding Story. It was also mentioned in the thread discussing Story's signing. (I think it is first mentioned in post 38).

I'm not saying that you should have a comprehensive memory of what has been said in prior threads or even that you have to scour the internet for research. However, when there is an overarching narrative about a player and tools that may or may not have diminished, it would behoove you to at least consider that people aren't pulling this out of nowhere. IN short: if people keep saying that they are worried about Story's arm, you should at least consider that there may be something there, especially if there is not significant pushback from the rest of the board regarding that statement.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I am. He'll be in A+ to start next year though. He probably has the most exciting arm outside of anyone not named Perales below AA. Some would say even more. All these 20 and under pitchers have such a wide range of outcomes depending on how they physically develop. Hard to get too excited by any of them until they start producing some in A+ and AA though.

Wikelman has actually been dominating for awhile now. Last 7 games: 2.18 era, 33.0 ip, 22 hits, 8r/8er, 10bb/39k. .186/.271/.220 on a .275 BAbip. 29.3% K%, 7.5% BB%.
Off to a great start in A+ too: 4 games, 2.65 era, 17.0 ip, 13 hits, 5r/5er, 6bb/23k. .213/.314/.262 on a .342 BAbip. 32.9% K%, 8.6% BB%. Overlaps.

Feels like he's been in the system forever but he doesn't turn 21 until March.
I was assuming he’d start in Portland
 

YTF

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The only reason for Kennedy to go out of his way to publicly state that Xander is under contract with the Red Sox for a long time is to make it seem like he would be the one leaving the Red Sox. That's blame shifting. This is not a JD situation when the future contract was roughly similar to his current value and an opt out was debatable.

The last 2023-2025 seasons of the contract (barring a major injury before of the end of the season) are already entirely meaningless. Xander is functionally under contract to fix my pool in 2023 as much as he is under contract to play for the Boston Red Sox for 2023.

He is going to be a FA. Pay him or don't pay him. But don't pretend Xander is opting out and it's his fault if he leaves.
Bogaerts has a choice to make based on the options presented to him. It's not a matter of fault. What he does pertaining to his option or where he ultimately ends up is of his choosing. There is no reason for Kennedy not to publicly state that when publicly asked. It's not like Kennedy took out paid advertising on NESN and the MLB Network and rented billboards in Boston and surrounding communities.
 

dhappy42

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I replied to you with this earlier to show a couple of articles that directly mentioned reduced arm strength regarding Story, but it looks like you missed them, so here you go:


Both of those are articles about why the Yankees shouldn't sign Story as a SS due to concerns about his arm strength. While they site anonymous "multiple scouts," (and it is likely both articles are using the same sources, especially given similar phrasing), this is far from the only time I have heard this sentiment---that Story's arm may no longer hold up at SS long term.

This article also references concern about his arm strength. This tweet also suggests that Story's arm strength has been sliding since 2020. Also mentioned here.

Now this may be a case of a rumor being repeated over and over and making it seem more grounded in fact than speculation than it truly is, but my point is that this is part of the narrative surrounding Story. It was also mentioned in the thread discussing Story's signing. (I think it is first mentioned in post 38).

I'm not saying that you should have a comprehensive memory of what has been said in prior threads or even that you have to scour the internet for research. However, when there is an overarching narrative about a player and tools that may or may not have diminished, it would behoove you to at least consider that people aren't pulling this out of nowhere. IN short: if people keep saying that they are worried about Story's arm, you should at least consider that there may be something there, especially if there is not significant pushback from the rest of the board regarding that statement.
What was Story’s before and after arm strength? I can’t find the chart provided earlier. (Edit: I see the chart now in the tweet. Before: top speed = 93 mph. After (2021): 85 mph. Edit2: Lindor’s max exit velocity is 88 mph.)

What’s the range of MLB SS arm strength?

The debate isn’t over whether Story’s arm is as strong as it was when he was 25 or before he strained his elbow. It’s about whether he can still play shortstop.
 
Last edited:

effectivelywild

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What was Story’s before and after arm strength? I can’t find the chart provided earlier. (Edit: I see the chart now in the tweet. Before: top speed = 93 mph. After (2021): 85 mph. Edit2: Lindor’s max exit velocity is 88 mph.)

What’s the range of MLB SS arm strength?

The debate isn’t over whether Story’s arm is as strong as it was when he was 25 or before he strained his elbow. It’s about whether he can still play shortstop.
Unfortunately I haven't been able to find consistent information on SS throw velocity---it's not something listed on Baseball Savant but I found a few sources that may shed some light:
1. This article from Baseball America goes through a list of hardest infield throws in roughly the first half of 2021 (as a way of discussing the mammoth arm of minor leaguer Masyn Winn)---it looks like the 92-93 mph range is more or less the upper amount of what you'd expect from SS with "good" arms.
2. This article on baseball recruiting notes that "elite" D1/JUCO prospects middle infielders should throw between 85-95 mph and that infield velocity of low 80's and above is what would be expected form lower level D1/D2 recruits. Which is around where I think Story is.
3. Article discussing fielder throw speeds seems to confirm that the 92-95 mph band is about where guys with strong arms will top out.

Again, I don't have any place I could find that showed average throw velocity for SS as a whole or for each SS. My best guess is that Story's arm is probably no longer considered to be an "asset" for him at SS but isn't necessarily so bad that he would be unable to play the position at all---just that it may hinder him. Another consideration, which I think is also sort of alluded to by the "scouts concerned about his arm" are less about his arm strength being totally inadequate for the position but also concern that the harder throws he may need to make from SS on a greater frequency could increase his risk for future elbow strains and other injuries.
 

radsoxfan

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Bogaerts has a choice to make based on the options presented to him. It's not a matter of fault. What he does pertaining to his option or where he ultimately ends up is of his choosing. There is no reason for Kennedy not to publicly state that when publicly asked. It's not like Kennedy took out paid advertising on NESN and the MLB Network and rented billboards in Boston and surrounding communities.
"We love Xander, we hope we can work out a long term deal with Xander" is all he has to say.

No need to pretend there is a fantasy option where he opts into the contract because he just loves being in Boston so much.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Unfortunately I haven't been able to find consistent information on SS throw velocity---it's not something listed on Baseball Savant but I found a few sources that may shed some light:
1. This article from Baseball America goes through a list of hardest infield throws in roughly the first half of 2021 (as a way of discussing the mammoth arm of minor leaguer Masyn Winn)---it looks like the 92-93 mph range is more or less the upper amount of what you'd expect from SS with "good" arms.
2. This article on baseball recruiting notes that "elite" D1/JUCO prospects middle infielders should throw between 85-95 mph and that infield velocity of low 80's and above is what would be expected form lower level D1/D2 recruits. Which is around where I think Story is.
3. Article discussing fielder throw speeds seems to confirm that the 92-95 mph band is about where guys with strong arms will top out.

Again, I don't have any place I could find that showed average throw velocity for SS as a whole or for each SS. My best guess is that Story's arm is probably no longer considered to be an "asset" for him at SS but isn't necessarily so bad that he would be unable to play the position at all---just that it may hinder him. Another consideration, which I think is also sort of alluded to by the "scouts concerned about his arm" are less about his arm strength being totally inadequate for the position but also concern that the harder throws he may need to make from SS on a greater frequency could increase his risk for future elbow strains and other injuries.
This is really helpful, thanks.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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A 110 foot throw at 75 mph will get there in exactly one second.
A 110 foot throw at 83 mph will get there in 0.9 seconds.
90 mph brings you down to 0.83 seconds.

If his arm is shot Story is a (very very good) second baseman.
The average RH batter gets from home to first in 4.35 seconds, and the average LH batter in 4.31 seconds.

That means per second, they cover about 20.689 feet per second, with the LH batter getting the little head start.

So those three throws…the difference between an 83 mph throw and a 75 mph throw is a tenth of a second, which is 2.07 feet down the line.

The difference between an 83 mph throw and a 90 mph throw is another 0.9 seconds, which is another 1.86 feet.

In most plays this isn’t a huge deal but there are plenty where those extra two feet (roughly) will make an enormous difference.

(Someone get out your slide rule and double check my math please…. I was a broadcast journalism major!)
 

8slim

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Bogaerts has a choice to make based on the options presented to him. It's not a matter of fault. What he does pertaining to his option or where he ultimately ends up is of his choosing. There is no reason for Kennedy not to publicly state that when publicly asked. It's not like Kennedy took out paid advertising on NESN and the MLB Network and rented billboards in Boston and surrounding communities.
As much affection as I have for the Henry regime for all the obvious reasons, they also have a long history of framing exiting (or potentially exiting) employees in a vaguely hostile way. Like @radsoxfan said, it would have been just as easy for Kennedy to answer that question by saying that (a) Xander has a choice to make, and (b) the Sox would love to have him spend many more years in Boston. Suggesting that that the Sox are nothing more than innocent bystanders in this process was a little silly.
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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If they let Xander walk and don't extend Devers but still spend up to the tax threshold (and not with a meaningful sum in a buying prospects kind of way ala JBJ), are they still committed to winning?
 

8slim

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If they let Xander walk and don't extend Devers but still spend up to the tax threshold (and not with a meaningful sum in a buying prospects kind of way ala JBJ), are they still committed to winning?
Maybe? I mean, we'll see how it all plays out. I'm not one of the posters calling ownership cheap, or claiming they want to build Tampa Bay II in Boston. If they have a plan that doesn't involve X and Devers, but yields a championship-caliber team, then that's great. It'll all be about the execution, obviously.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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The average RH batter gets from home to first in 4.35 seconds, and the average LH batter in 4.31 seconds.

That means per second, they cover about 20.689 feet per second, with the LH batter getting the little head start.

So those three throws…the difference between an 83 mph throw and a 75 mph throw is a tenth of a second, which is 2.07 feet down the line.

The difference between an 83 mph throw and a 90 mph throw is another 0.9 seconds, which is another 1.86 feet.

In most plays this isn’t a huge deal but there are plenty where those extra two feet (roughly) will make an enormous difference.

(Someone get out your slide rule and double check my math please…. I was a broadcast journalism major!)
Assuming that the math is right (I didn't check it but it looks plausible), it's even worse than you suggest, because the batter is accelerating from a dead stop. So they're actually moving faster / covering ground more quickly near the base. Instead of looking at total time from the batter's box to first base, it might be more interesting to just look at typical sprint speed approaching the base (if available).
 

moondog80

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Maybe? I mean, we'll see how it all plays out. I'm not one of the posters calling ownership cheap, or claiming they want to build Tampa Bay II in Boston. If they have a plan that doesn't involve X and Devers, but yields a championship-caliber team, then that's great. It'll all be about the execution, obviously.
Agree 100%. That post wasn't aimed at you, or anyone in particular. But, if on day 3 of free agency, Xander is the first domino to fall and he goes elsewhere, lots of people will be jumping to conclusions. We need to see it plays out. There will be a *lot* of money to spend, and no reason to think they won't utilize it, I will be fascinated to see how it plays out.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Assuming that the math is right (I didn't check it but it looks plausible), it's even worse than you suggest, because the batter is accelerating from a dead stop. So they're actually moving faster / covering ground more quickly near the base. Instead of looking at total time from the batter's box to first base, it might be more interesting to just look at typical sprint speed approaching the base (if available).
You're right. The point, of course, is that @snowmanny is right - any reduction in arm strength greatly impacts the number of close calls that go against the Red Sox if Story were to play short.
 

sezwho

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"We love Xander, we hope we can work out a long term deal with Xander" is all he has to say.

No need to pretend there is a fantasy option where he opts into the contract because he just loves being in Boston so much.
Exactly. While technically accurate, Kennedy’s comments ignore obvious context and to me made him sound like a Honk. That wasn’t necessary, likely isn’t received well In the clubhouse (note to aggregators : conjecture) and could only curry favor with people who don’t understand the context.
 

snowmanny

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Theo was the absolute master of clearly giving you the answer without directly giving you the answer.

As for this quote from Kennedy:

“Raffy, we have him under team control for one more year. Will we continue to try to talk and discuss a long term extension. Yes, we would love him to be here. But we have to think about how to get back to October baseball and winning a world series. Those two guys being a part of this team certainly help that, but we also have to think about the rest of the roster and the rest of the positions we have to fill. The resources here are enormous, over 230 million spent on players in 2022. We will continue to invest heavily, but we have to do it in a way that’s responsible to be where we want to be for a long time."

Well, I'm not sure. He's clearly saying we are going to spend a lot of money, but we are leaning towards the idea that we cannot build a competitive team paying both Xander and Devers what they want; it may look good in the short-term but bury us later.

But can we pay one of them? Does he think no player is worth what Devers wants so we should never expect a, say, $35Million ballplayer? Or does he just not think Devers is worth it?

He mentions "a long time" so that seems to imply he's afraid those players are going to be low value later on. Is that the issue?

It all sort of requests the question "What player WOULD be worth a long-term $300-400Million deal to the Red Sox?" Or more specifically "Is the philosophy that we don't do those sorts of deals or is this a Devers thing?"
 

grimshaw

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I'll throw out some names positionally in no particular order of preference.

Cody Bellinger is most likely a non-tender by the Dodgers. He makes 17.7 mill and has one more arbitration season. He has been a shell of himself since 2019 but is still well above average defensively and can play all 3 OF positions and 1b. Maybe they can get him on a deal similar to Kike and get lucky but he is a bridge candidate for Cedanne. This would definitely be a Bloom doing Bloom things type deal.

Aaron Judge is someone I would absolutely go big on and would be instant must watch tv - someone the Sox haven't had since Betts. They have so much money to play with, that this is the type of deal a contending team needs to do. If it's their one mega contract, so be it - but if he dictated playing CF, I'd reconsider since he isn't far from taking a big dip on defense. Admittedly, this would have to be more of an ownership thing since Bloom has stayed away from players who are unlikely to produce value.

Brandon Nimmo They could really use an OBP grinder type. Another well above average defender who has OF flexibility. He'd be my#2 target.

Jurickson Profar may test the market since he is having a nice season and only makes $7 mill with a 2023 player option. He has some defensive flexibility and fits the grinder type they need.

I would most definitely test the Willson Contreras market but stop at 4 years. His bat is still good enough for 1b/DH as well.
If they stick with what they have they can spend a lot of money elsewhere.

If they want to do something vanilla until Mayer is ready, Elvis Andrus is out there. Weirdly, Correa has gone from otherworldly defense to bottom third in one season by fWAR so I'm out on him. I wasn't on the X train but it's tough to see where else they can go to maintain anything close to his production.

Brandon Drury is another defensively flexible bridge guy who if he moved to OF would be useful. Since he was dealt there won't be a QO attached to him. If he couldn't play OF, he'd be a more expensive Arroyo who doesn't quite fit the positions of need. He also may be able to finagle a 3 year deal somewhere after his career year.

TL/DR - If they feel the window starts now - I'd start to go big, pushing hard for two of three of Judge, Contreras, and Nimmo. I think there are too many pitching holes for them to go this route unfortunately (thanks to the Chris Sale disaster) so am more prepared for a bridge city off season.
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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The only reason for Kennedy to go out of his way to publicly state that Xander is under contract with the Red Sox for a long time is to make it seem like he would be the one leaving the Red Sox. That's blame shifting.
Did Kennedy "go out of his way" to make that statement or was he answering a question on a podcast?

And it will be ultimately up to Bogaerts whether he leaves or stays. The Red Sox will offer him X dollars and Y years based on their assessment of his future value and Bogaerts will take it or leave it depending on what other teams offer.

He is going to be a FA. Pay him or don't pay him. But don't pretend Xander is opting out and it's his fault if he leaves.
This doesn't make sense to me. If Bogaerts opts out of his current contract and chooses to reject a reasonable Red Sox offer, then it is, in fact, his "fault" if he leaves. I put "fault" in quotes because it's really nobody's fault. It's a business decision. As much as I -- and I assume the Red Sox -- want Bogaerts to stay, I don't want them to overpay him and deprive the team of resources to spend on the rest of the roster.
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
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That's probably fair. I was thinking 5-6 years at $32.5 million. They need a minimum of two years to get to Mayer, and probably more like 2.5.
I think Mayer being two-to-three years away limits Bogaerts's value to the Red Sox vis-a-vis his value to other teams which will be more willing to overpay him. I know there's talk about X transitioning to LF, but I don't think he will (a) want to do that and (b) hit with enough power at age 35-36-37 to be a $32 million left fielder. If the Sox are going to overpay Bogaerts or Devers, ( I don't think they can afford to overpay both,) I'd overpay Devers who is younger and will likely transition better to DH in his later years.
 

sezwho

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Did Kennedy "go out of his way" to make that statement or was he answering a question on a podcast?

And it will be ultimately up to Bogaerts whether he leaves or stays. The Red Sox will offer him X dollars and Y years based on their assessment of his future value and Bogaerts will take it or leave it depending on what other teams offer.


This doesn't make sense to me. If Bogaerts opts out of his current contract and chooses to reject a reasonable Red Sox offer, then it is, in fact, his "fault" if he leaves. I put "fault" in quotes because it's really nobody's fault. It's a business decision. As much as I -- and I assume the Red Sox -- want Bogaerts to stay, I don't want them to overpay him and deprive the team of resources to spend on the rest of the roster.
You also put "reasonable" in italics, which is just as relevant to whether he leaves.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
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Sep 20, 2005
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Cody Bellinger is most likely a non-tender by the Dodgers. He makes 17.7 mill and has one more arbitration season. He has been a shell of himself since 2019 but is still well above average defensively and can play all 3 OF positions and 1b. Maybe they can get him on a deal similar to Kike and get lucky but he is a bridge candidate for Cedanne. This would definitely be a Bloom doing Bloom things type deal.


I've seen his name bandied about and it's tempting to hope that he can get at least part of the way back. But, 185/252/348 in his last 824 plate appearances (2021 and 2022) with a 27% K rate. After JBJ this past year, are they going to commit 300 PA appearances to see if he can figure it out? I don't see it. He'll get a better opportunity elsewhere.
 

dhappy42

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Oct 27, 2013
15,802
Michigan
You also put "reasonable" in italics, which is just as relevant to whether he leaves.
Right, but what I'm getting at is that the Sox can make Bogaerts a reasonable offer and still be outbid by another team.

Edit: Which again invites the question - what is a reasonable offer? Six years and $140 million, same as Story? Seven years and $224 million, what Lindor will make age 31-38? Something in between?
 
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