What does 2023 look like?
- Thread starter moondog80
- Start date
Totally agree, and on top of that, I'm sure the park is insured. I'm not concerned about the money, and I know I'm jumping the gun. Just saying there could be significant damage, and it could impact spring training. Not necessarily likely, but its out there.
I didn’t quote your post because I figured you’d might want to reconsider and delete it and I wanted to give you a chance to have it be that no one would see what your concern is.
there are many options of other places and way to hold training camps.
there are many options of other places and way to hold training camps.
Lol delete it? If you consider it insensitive, sorry, but I'm living it. I'm not in the path of this hurricane thankfully, but I've had two days of work cancelled, and two tornado alerts already where we had to hide in an interior room. I have friends and relatives on the west coast of Florida. I've got friends and relatives calling from all over making sure we're ok. Taking a break from reality to think about the baseball angle, which I imagine, everyone here does quite a bit.
Whatever damage that could happen at JetBlue will happen in the next 24-36 hours. After which, they'll have at least four months to repair that damage before pitchers and catchers are due to report. I would think that unless the whole place is completely leveled, that's plenty of time to be ready for spring training.
Now the prospect training or whatever they do down there in the fall might be impacted. I know they suspended activities for the week due to the storm.
Now the prospect training or whatever they do down there in the fall might be impacted. I know they suspended activities for the week due to the storm.
Sorry, I don’t remember which thread was discussing Trevor Story’s arm strength but these numbers that came out today and Mike Petriello’s piece seem to make it clear that he is a 2B going forward, not a SS.
https://www.mlb.com/news/ronald-acuna-jr-owns-2022s-strongest-throwing-arm
https://www.mlb.com/news/ronald-acuna-jr-owns-2022s-strongest-throwing-arm
Very interesting article. Is it a problem if Story is primarily a 2B, not a SS, going forward?
Agreed. Refsnyder has been really solid this year, but I would much prefer him being our 4th OF/utility guy rather than a starter. Maybe a platoon option if the team brings in the LHH OF. But as a 4th OF/utility guy he can still get AB's bouncing around the field playing a couple times a week.
Not really... We don't care if his 3-4 WAR come at second instead of short, unless we have somebody below replacement at SS. The rules forcing a reduction in shifts next season seem to make Story's excellent defense at second even more valuable. (Heard it here, no source available)
If we can keep Bogaerts at something reasonable, they look like a great middle infield for a few years. If playing 2b helps keep Story healthy, all the better.
No, but others have suggested the Sox plan to let Xander go and shift Story to short since it's presumably easier to find a piece internally or externally to plug into second than short. This article would suggest otherwise (or at least that it probably wouldn't be advisable).
Yeah. The guy's been great in limited action, but it was by far his best season at age 31, nothing else was remotely close. Before this year, 2015 was the only time he'd ever had a positive bWAR, and that was 0.4 in 47 plate appearances. Those 47 PA were also the only time he'd gotten to a .700 OPS until this year. Would love it if he's really figured something out and can sustain it in his age-32 season, and having him as a 4th OF/utility guy seems a good way to test that, but counting on this being more than a SSS hot streak and making him a regular starter seems ill-advised.
Thats what I thought. Nobody cared that Pedroia, an excellent 2B, could’nt/didn’t play SS. That’s not to say Story can’t play SS, just that he’d have a below average arm playing there. Good point re the shift ban too. Requiring infielders to play on the dirt is going to increase the importance of range and decrease the importance of arm strength.
How many years away is Marcelo Mayer?
barring a miracle and being as optimistic as possible, July or August 2024. Most likely 2025.
Does that suggest the Sox will avoid signing any SS to a long-term contract, including Bogaerts, unless he agrees to a position change in 2-3 years? Mayer seems to be as much of a sure thing as there is in baseball.
Maybe at the margins - if there is a reasonable deal to be had with a good SS, they shouldnt pass on it solely because of Mayer. As good as Mayer is, bust rates for guys below AA is pretty high and Mayer will spend a good chunk of next year at A+. Probably a good reminder, but Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado were considered better SS prospects than Xander as they were coming up. Machado obviously is a great player, but wasnt able to stick at short at all and Profar never made it as a SS and was a complete journeyman for 7-8 years until now when he finally established himself in LF in SD.
These arent the only examples, but a lot of really high end prospects bust and the number of shortstop prospects that dont bust and dont have to move off the position is pretty small.
My ideal timeline is something like this.
2023: Bogaerts SS (BOS, age 30), Mayer SS (POR, age 20), Verdugo LF (BOS)
2024: Bogaerts SS (BOS, age 31), Mayer SS (WOR, age 21), Verdugo LF (BOS)
2025: Bogaerts LF (BOS, age 32), Mayer SS (BOS, age 22), Verdugo FA
And so on. If we somehow extend Bogaerts, but not Devers, another obvious possibility emerges.
I thought Machado got moved off SS not because he couldn't play it but because Hardy was better and in SD there's Fernando Tatis.
The bust rates for players below AA are high (they are high for AA players too) but the success rate of top 20 prospects is also high. Profar was #1 in all of baseball and has been an everyday player since 2018 with a 101 OPS+ in 2354 PA since. I'd be disappointed if Mayer did that but in the grand scheme of things, it was another top 20 prospect becoming an every day player.
Machado also peaked at #6 while Xander peaked at #2... so you can keep pretending that Machado and Profar were considered better SS prospects than Xander but they were not. They were in the same group. Miguel Sano was too. Sano peaked at 4. I've seen Mayer as high as 8.
It is not a good reminder because your reminder is wrong. Xander Bogaerts was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball on every list. At the beginning of 2014, he was #2 on BA, BP and MLB. But whatever you say. Don't let facts get in the way of a narrative.
Depends how long the long term deal is, but most likely. The team is also loaded with MI prospects and is sparse in OF. They might think a better use of financial resources is the OF and maybe pitching. They have well documented pitching depth in AAA but outside of Bello, it's more quantity than quality. Mata and Walter being the best of that quantity. Walter was shut down earlier this year and will need time to get back up to par and Mata is at least another half season away. You can also never have too much pitching.
For the OF, they have Abreu and Rafaela who ended the season in AA and will start next year in AAA. They are also at least half a season away. Outside of that, you have to down to Miguel Bleis in the FCL to get to the next OF prospect. At least he's a really good one.
For the IF, there's Mayer, Rafaela (again), Lugo, Paulino, Yorke, Romero, Coffey, Bonaci, Encarnacion, Alcantara, Ravelo and more. Some of them will be moved to other positions (Paulino's been playing some CF) but there's just so many. I guess that's what happens when you are signing 16-18 year olds though. The best players play SS.
On Sox prospects, the Sox have 9 OFs in their top 60, 4 in the top 30 (Bleis 5, Rafaela 6, Anthony 11, Abreu 26).
I'm excited about Mayer like everybody else, but a lot can go wrong between now and his Hall of Fame induction. Having Story and Bogaerts sounds good to me in the meantime. Let's worry about Mayer when he's forcing us to move Bogaerts down the spectrum in a few years.
If you're buying low on JBJ and selling high on Renfroe in the same trade are you really accomplishing either? I understand the prospects involved, but by all accounts this was nothing more than a depth deal.
Possible scenarios, assuming health.
I think the most likely scenarios is he spends half the year in A+ and the other half in AA. That puts him in AAA at the beginning of 2024. So he either debuts sometime during (not the start of) 2024 or the start of 2025.
Another likely scenario is he spends most of the year in A+ and some time in AA. Starts 2024 in AA. Probably ends in AAA. That puts him in the MLB the 2nd half of 2025.
Another scenario is he struggles in A+, finishes there in 2023. Struggles in AA in 2024, spends the whole year there. Struggles in AAA in 2025, spends the whole year there..
A less likely scenario is he starts in A+ (or possibly AA), pulls a Ben10 and is in Boston mid 2023.
A few years is probably going to be in the range of 1.5-2.5 years. It's also far more likely it would be greater than 2.5 as opposed to less than 1.5.
edit: He being Mayer.
I think the most likely scenarios is he spends half the year in A+ and the other half in AA. That puts him in AAA at the beginning of 2024. So he either debuts sometime during (not the start of) 2024 or the start of 2025.
Another likely scenario is he spends most of the year in A+ and some time in AA. Starts 2024 in AA. Probably ends in AAA. That puts him in the MLB the 2nd half of 2025.
Another scenario is he struggles in A+, finishes there in 2023. Struggles in AA in 2024, spends the whole year there. Struggles in AAA in 2025, spends the whole year there..
A less likely scenario is he starts in A+ (or possibly AA), pulls a Ben10 and is in Boston mid 2023.
A few years is probably going to be in the range of 1.5-2.5 years. It's also far more likely it would be greater than 2.5 as opposed to less than 1.5.
edit: He being Mayer.
He raked his way to the bench in the ALCS. SSS maybe but I wasn't the only one who had no long-term confidence in his bat. He's the same player this year in an easier outfield to defend. Nothing special.
I understand you like get really specific on the facts, but whether they were better or the same doesnt really matter here - the main point is that you dont abstain from signing reasonable deals for good players because of guys that are below AA - they are far away and a good number of even premium guys become players that you don't want to plan around. If the prospect works out and you have a good player on a reasonable deal, then there are plenty of good solutions to that "problem." Are you really saying if Xander would stay on say a 5/150, you wouldnt want them to sign him to that deal because of Mayer? They wont even overlap for the first half of the deal!
I didnt include Sano because no one thought he was a SS (MIN barely even tried to play him there and he was an absolute disaster and ended up with 10x as many minor leagues at 3B than SS) and I was limiting it to a group of shortstops that were all the same age. One of out the three effectively topped out an average starter after a position change and 5-6 years of ranging from truly replacement level to a well below average regular. The other got moved off the position - I agree there was some discussion that it was because Hardy was a better defender. I never know how much credence to give to that or whether it was just a media narrative for a move to the place the team thought he'd be best long term (interestingly 10 years later the Orioles need to make the same decision with . Including Sano only makes the sample look worse as he also has not been someone you'd want to base major decisions around.
Now since you want to debate the nits, youre just wrong here. No one at the time thought that Xander was equivalent to either Machado or Profar (you could argue tier here, but there was a pretty strong preference for Profar over Xander due to concerns of Xander's athletic limitations requiring a position change).
Xander peaked at a higher level than Machado only because Machado graduated at 19. Xander didnt graduate for another two years after that. At no time did anyone think Xander was a better prospect than Machado. Xander received a modest bonus out of the DR; Machado was the #3 overall pick and received a $5.5M bonus. The last year Machado was ranked before his age 19 (2012) season was #12. At the time Xander was ranked #58. Go back another year and pre-2011 Machado was ranked #14 and Xander unranked. At no point during Xander was in the minors would anyone think that he was at the same level. When Xander was ranked #2, Machado was coming of a 5 win season at the major league level. To argue that Xander was a similar never mind better prospect is being completely disingenuous with the use of top ranking without accounting for the fact that they're the same age and Machado was already a MLB star at the time.
Profar also came up with Xander and was ahead of him every single year. If you want to say Xander was Profar's equal at the time, fine - that wasnt the scouting consensus at the time. By your own admission, he peaked at #1 the year Xander was #8 (and Profar was #7 the prior year with Xander coming in at #58). Again he graduated before Xander did despite being the same age.
I don't know why bonus matters. The Sox top pitching prospect signed for $28k and he's pretty highly regarded right now. If I recall correctly, Bogaerts signed for less because he built a relationship with the Red Sox and because they were also going to sign his twin, Jair. Nowadays, they'd probably be punished for such things. They signed both the Basabe's too but they were both legitimate prospects. That was a long time ago though. And Miguel Sano is an every day player. He helps my argument, in that top 20 prospects who are positional hitters tend to work out. Sano and Profar are examples of "bad." We are arguing different things.
Where did I say I wouldn't want them to sign Bogaerts for 5-6 years? I don't think they will sign him to such a deal without an agreement from him to move off the SS position for the last couple years.
I don't see the team committing to anyone at the SS position for the long term. They could lock up a current SS with an agreement in hand to move off SS. I also don't think this team is really going anywhere in 2023. And looking at the complexion of the farm system, long term the money would be better spent at positions other than SS (and probably 2b). Even if Mayer doesn't work out, there are almost too many SS prospects for all of them to fail. Slim pickings in the OF though. Plenty of pitching depth but it's not really inspiring outside of Bello. I like Mata and Walter but I'd guess most scouts have them ending up in the pen. Once you get past this wave, the next wave of pitchers are 3ish years away and to date, it's been more potential than result.
I just don't see how this team can compete next year. There's going to be a wave of positional prospects coming in the next few years and most of them play the same position or two. I'd rather they let that play out than lock up a SS for 6 years that isn't willing to move off the position. The team is going to need an OF. One who can hit well enough for the corner positions and doesn't suck defensively. CF is ironically the one position the Red Sox might be ok at with Rafaela, Bleis and maybe Paulino depending on how that goes.
That's my thought process anyway. Any money committed after the 2024 season shouldn't be at the SS position. And not just because of Mayer, but because of all the SS/MI prospects on the team. This is especially true since there's very little in the way of OFs with power.
Well, there's that too. But they asked if I would say no to Xander staying on a 5/150 deal.
I debated including the bonus, but included it to trace Bogaerts and Machados development from beginning to end - they werent at all comparable at any stage.
This was all about whether the team should make decisions about who to sign or not sign because of the presence of Mayer. Until guys are clearly producing at AA/AAA, theres no real reason to do that except at the very margins (e.g., maybe you dont go the extra mile with Xander that maybe you would if you had absolutely nothing in the middle infield) and you definitely dont pass up reasonable agreements. Xander is going to leave because that 5/150, 6/175 type deal wont be there. Sano being a (charitably as hes been pretty bad or hurt for a few years now) fringe average player is nice for a few cheap years, but its not someone you're happy that you made significant roster decisions around. If Mayer ends up in that situation (or Profar who was worse in his Rangers years) after they've made a bunch of decisions around him being the future, thats a pretty shitty situation.
I agree that its a pretty uphill battle for them to compete in 2023, but thats a serious problem - revenues go way down in non-competitive years - they cant just piss away multiple more years putting out the crappy product they put out this year and hope that they hit on enough of the low minors guys to be good in 2026. Bloom would be canned way before then and I dont see how the talent is materially different in 2024 than 2023.
Yeah it was a pure hypothetical about not turning down talent at values people are comfortable with. Hes getting 200+
A lot of them should start to arrive in mid 2024 but maybe that's a holdover of 40 man rosters. They can no longer really give players a feel of MLB play with a September call up. If there's a gap growing in play from AAA to MLB very recently, maybe that's part of the cause.
I think using 2023 to find out what you have with all the young arms, Bello and Casas is the best bet. Possibly spend big money on an OF this offseason or next because it's probably not coming from the farm. I kind of envision 2023 looking like 2015. It's gonna be an ugly first half but hopefully some of the young pitching will come on and come August we get to see Rafaela, Valdez, Abreu, Mata, Walter. The 2nd half of 2023 will be exciting, they'll have a winning record, the farm will have shown some results and the future will look positive because young players improve.
I'd rather watch a team of young players go 78-84 than a team.. well this team. It's been better with Bello and Casas but that's the point. A losing product isn't necessarily crappy or boring if it's full of youth and upside. Youth is easy to cheer for. If Casas has an OPS+ of 120 with good D in his first full year and/or Bello pitches 180 innings with an era+ of 125 while the team goes 78-84... it's not going to be dreadful. Even if they are just average, that's exciting.
That's especially true if we get to see Rafaela, Mata and Walter for a few months. Valdez and Abreu also have some intrigue. Just sign a bunch of guys to 1-2 year deals and trade them off at the all star break for prospects and let the youth play. This team is not there.
I'd definitely agree thats more entertaining than rolling out a mediocre veteran team, but I dont think either of us are representative of the broader market. I suspect viewership is down this year and will be way down if they aren't in contention next year. Owning your own network, that's a serious drain to the bottom line.
Moving this from the Rich Hill thread.
Pick three of the following four contracts:
A) 33-year-old SP | 3.37 FIP in 286 IP ('21-22) | 1 year, $19 million
B) 30-year-old SP | 4.30 FIP in 325 IP ('21-22) | 2 years, $14 million
C) 31-year-old SP | 4.19 FIP in 248 IP ('21-22) | 1 year, $19 million
D) 43-year-old SP | 4.12 FIP in 277 IP ('21-22) | 1 year, $5 million
*AL league-average SP in '21-22 is 4.23 FIP
All of these seem useful, but it's not clear to me that option B (Pivetta) is better than the other three. But Pivetta is the only one of the four with trade value, which could potentially be used to shore up another position (right field, or maybe late-inning reliever). If you've got Sale, Whitlock and Bello in the rotation anyway (I think Houck's days in the rotation are done), keeping whichever one of A, C, and D you like least over B doesn't appear to be much of a downgrade, if there is one at all.
Now, A and C might not be available for 1-year and $19 million. That would be a different conversation, but thankfully one you'll have an answer to in mid-November. Or maybe instead of A and C you sign a short-year deal with...
E) 37-year-old SP who put up a 3.64 FIP in 239 IP
F) 32-year-old SP who put up a 3.80 FIP in 290 IP or
G) 38-year-old SP who put up a 3.65 FIP in 353 IP,
all of whom are guys who've recently expressed interest in playing here and whose signing would again render B expendable in a thin pitching market.
Then in 2024, you've got Sale, Whitlock and Bello again, and you've got two additional rotation spots earmarked for Crawford, Mata, Walter, Seabold, Winckowski, Murphy or whoever you might like in the much more interesting 2024 free agent starting pitcher market.
A = Eovaldi, B = Pivetta, C = Wacha, D = Hill, E = Kluber, F = Martin Pérez, G = Morton
Pivetta isn’t a 2 year commitment, though. He’s one year at whatever he gets at arb, likely to be about half of what they’d have to pay Wacha or Eovaldi with a QO. I think there’s other assets they can and should use to get help at positions of need; instead of robbing Peter to pay Paul,
I'd consider trading him because I don't think he really fits into the teams window. I don't think we'd care for the return though. Probably more Binelas and Hamilton types.
Charlie Morton signed a one year extension with Atlanta for 20 mil. It does include a 20 mil team option for 2024 with no buyout. ERA+ of 96 this year with peripherals that more or less support that. Does this move us toward giving Eovaldi and/or Wacha the QO?
I'm guessing both Wacha and Eovaldi get qualifying offers. By all accounts that's a low risk transaction and right up Bloom's alley for the type of pitching transactions he's comfortable making.
If they receive and accept QO’s, the rotation is basically done.
Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Pivetta, Bello
With Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, potentially Paxton if he opts in (which seems unlikely if he’s healthy), etc. as depth.
Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Pivetta, Bello
With Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, potentially Paxton if he opts in (which seems unlikely if he’s healthy), etc. as depth.
This potential rotation doesn’t give me the warm and fuzzies. First three starters are more-than-average injury risks. I hope whatever Chaim puts together is better.
I’m a little more optimistic that Whitlock opens in the rotation, but we’ll see.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1576221700957433857?s=46&t=N_uzXV6ieGButN4jfDqFgA
Here's the thing about giving the QO to both Eovaldi and Wacha...you start to run out of ways to get the payroll to 230 mil next year. Here's what I have right now if they offer both, I'm including 25 million in both SS at 3B:
1B Casas $715,000
2B Story $23,333,333
SS Xander $25,000,000
3B Devers $25,000,000
LF Verdugo $5,000,000
RF
CF Hernandez $9,375,000
DH Hosmer $750,000
C McGuire $1,000,000
Bench
Bench Arroyo $2,000,000
Bench Backup C $1,000,000
Bench
SP Bello $715,000
SP Sale $25,600,000
SP Eovaldi $19,000,000
SP Wacha $19,000,000
SP Pivetta $4,000,000
RP Barnes $9,375,000
RP Whitlock $4,688,000
RP Schreiber $750,000
RP Houck $750,000
RP Crawford $750,000
RP
RP
Total $177,701,333
Over 50 million to spend on a RF and the bullpen. Now, maybe they just send Hosmer on his way and sign someone else to DH, but even then, unless Judge is playing RF you have a tough time getting there unless you spend big for two bullpen guys.
This is why I see them going after Verlander or DeGrom. It's *hard* to spend that kind of money without giving out long term deals, and those two will provide bang for the buck without being dead weight on the payroll when Casas and Bello (hopefully) hit their prime.
1B Casas $715,000
2B Story $23,333,333
SS Xander $25,000,000
3B Devers $25,000,000
LF Verdugo $5,000,000
RF
CF Hernandez $9,375,000
DH Hosmer $750,000
C McGuire $1,000,000
Bench
Bench Arroyo $2,000,000
Bench Backup C $1,000,000
Bench
SP Bello $715,000
SP Sale $25,600,000
SP Eovaldi $19,000,000
SP Wacha $19,000,000
SP Pivetta $4,000,000
RP Barnes $9,375,000
RP Whitlock $4,688,000
RP Schreiber $750,000
RP Houck $750,000
RP Crawford $750,000
RP
RP
Total $177,701,333
Over 50 million to spend on a RF and the bullpen. Now, maybe they just send Hosmer on his way and sign someone else to DH, but even then, unless Judge is playing RF you have a tough time getting there unless you spend big for two bullpen guys.
This is why I see them going after Verlander or DeGrom. It's *hard* to spend that kind of money without giving out long term deals, and those two will provide bang for the buck without being dead weight on the payroll when Casas and Bello (hopefully) hit their prime.
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There is around another $19M for benefits and 40 man roster that counts against the CBT, as well as paying out $8M for JBJ's option. And there is no way Hosmer is back as the DH next year. I don't think there will be any issue with spending up to the first threshold.
You are correct on the benefits but I believe JBJ's $$ was factored in this year? But either way, no, I don't think there will be an issue spending the $$$, but the number of paths is finite, especially if a few key guys are off the board. The FA options they will find palatable are not limitless.
You might be right on JBJ, Cots doesn't list anything for him next year (although he doesn't seem to show up for this year either, which obviously isn't true).
I could certainly see them going after Verlander or Degrom, but it won't be because they have money with nothing to spend it on.
That’s a weird way to put it. I see them going after those guys because it is the best use of the resources they have. And if they don’t get them, the chances of them getting creative with their 2023 payroll ala JBJ or Paxton increase, due to the limited number of players who will suit their needs.
Maybe I am misreading your original statement, but the above quote reads like you want to sign an ace because there is no other way to spend $230M. Which, I agree, is a weird way to think about the offseason.
That's an extreme take on it. Obviously the number of ways to spend the money outside of that is not zero -- I never said that it was. But if you try and fill in the slots with non-ridiculous deals, you will probably find the number of paths to be less than you realize, especially when you account for the fact that they might get outbid on a few of your top choices. They want to spend the money, but do it on their terms, not just throw money at Nick Castellanos because he is the best guy available.
If he was just a thrower, I'd agree. But if he can pitch effectively with diminished velocity (which may require some off-season tinkering), he can still be a useful piece. It wasn't that long ago that the likes of Paul Byrd was winning games for this team, and he didn't exactly break the sound barrier with his heater.