Those numbers are skewed a bit by this past August (.515 OPS, wRC+ 30) and a rough six-game stretch in 2018, when he was dealing with a leg injury in August (.697 OPS, wRC+ 93).It's odd how awful Devers is in August over his career.
wRC+ by month...
March/April 113
May 149
June 134
July 150
August 94
Sept/Oct 116
He also hits .238 in his 604 August PAs (next worse .284 in March/April).
Very alarming / Cause for alarm if it’s going to take $350m to sign him.Those numbers are skewed a bit by this past August (.515 OPS, wRC+ 30) and a rough six-game stretch in 2018, when he was dealing with a leg injury in August (.697 OPS, wRC+ 93).
Otherwise his August numbers are .812 OPS, wRC+ 106 (2017); .899 OPS, wRC+ 125 (2019); .815 OPS, wRC+ 114 (2020); and .740 OPS, wRC+ 95 (2021). Not what we're used to, but nothing too alarming.
I don’t really have the time at all and I’ve had a shitsteak of a day but I guarantee even Soto has months of utter garbage offense. Judge? Probably too (maybe not in ‘22?).Very alarming / Cause for alarm if it’s going to take $350m to sign him.
But Soto doesn’t have this injury history in his mid 20s. Devers last 5 seasons (from earlier post) -I don’t really have the time at all and I’ve had a shitsteak of a day but I guarantee even Soto has months of utter garbage offense. Judge? Probably too (maybe not in ‘22?).
I was just stating it's odd that over a significant sample size (over 600 PAs) that one month is so much worse than the rest.I don’t really have the time at all and I’ve had a shitsteak of a day but I guarantee even Soto has months of utter garbage offense. Judge? Probably too (maybe not in ‘22?).
I never post on here but have been following since I found SOSH back in 2002. In my opinion I could see the Sox win anywhere from 75-90 games. 90 wins might be too optimistic (probably is) but I’d rather be positive about it. Gets me through this cold ass winter anyways. And while I don’t agree with every move Bloom makes I think he has a plan and I’m hoping it is similar to the one implemented by the Dodgers and not Tampa.ESPN projecting 77 wins (4th place, 5 more than the O’s).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed
I remember that guy. Didn't he predict 118 wins for the Dodgers in 2021?ESPN projecting 77 wins (4th place, 5 more than the O’s).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35292245/ranking-all-30-mlb-teams-biggest-free-agents-signed
While it’s still the offseason, the New Year provides a perfect mile-marker for baseball fans.The first 2023 Power Rankings are out... Red Sox are currently projected at 23 out of 30. It's not still early any more, is it? So that ranking sounds about right!
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-new-years-power-rankings-2023
Yeah, he's a likable and exciting player even without the frequent web gems. The Yankees might be better able to hide him in an outfield spot with their high-strikeout staff than the Sox could. I'd rather he join Boston's recent collection of guys for whom reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.I have been thinking about him a bit for NY's LF spot also, they had him for a few months a few years ago and the way he draws walks is actually exciting, complete with bat flips on ball four. Not sure he is good enough defensively for NY to sign for LF or BOS to sign for the role you intend though, but definitely somewhat intriguing.
Petriello lists him as one of the top guys to benefit for the shift ban. Not a massive benefit but some potential.Cutch is also a great character guy, and would fit very nicely with the team's move toward plate discipline. He's always drawn a ton of walks, and was among the top 10 percent of hitters in chase rate last year. He still hits the ball roughly as hard as he did when Statcast started tracking in 2015, and his spray chart is a good Fenway fit.
He might also, despite being right-handed, benefit from the shift ban. He was shifted on in roughly half his PAs last year (49%), and had a .274 wOBA with that alignment. Without it, he put up a .345 wOBA. He had a rough start last year like everyone did, but put up a 118 wRC+ from June 5 on.
Interesting. According to Statcast, he made 34 outs on ground balls or line drives hit into shifted defenses. That's the fourth-highest total among major leaguers last year (Seager, Alvarez, Hoskins). His expected wOBA on those batted balls is .271 — which is not great, but it's a lot higher than .000.Petriello lists him as one of the top guys to benefit for the shift ban. Not a massive benefit but some potential.
Andrew McCutchen (free agent OF)
+8 potential hits gained / 49% shift rate
This might have been a one-year fluke. From 2019-21, McCutchen actually had a higher BABIP against the shift than without it. But in '22, his performance against standard defenses shot up, while his work against the shift fell apart. On the other hand, he turned 36 in October, so it’s hard to know if that’s an outlier or the new normal.
The common knowledge (mine included) is that he's bad defensively now. But FWIW, Fielding Bible has McCutchen at +5 defensive runs saved in the outfield last year (in 434 innings). He was -2 defensive runs saved in 1533 innings in 2021.McCutchen, last 3 years, ops+: 102, 109, 99 (104 total)
He's an average or slightly above average bat, with decent power, good speed, and is below average (or outright bad) defensively. But depending on cost, wouldn't be a bad guy to have on the roster.
And by proxy, he's probably not a good bet to handle RF either, at least at Fenway. I think he's an intriguing option absent the Yoshida signing (and Turner to a lesser extent), but I think he might be too redundant at this stage. Not to mention, he'll probably get a more appealing offer elsewhere in terms of potential playing time.McCutchen has started 12 games in CF in the last 5 years. He doesn't seem capable of playing the position anymore.
Yep. I think any additional OF needs to be able to handle CF. AJ Pollock?And by proxy, he's probably not a good bet to handle RF either, at least at Fenway. I think he's an intriguing option absent the Yoshida signing (and Turner to a lesser extent), but I think he might be too redundant at this stage. Not to mention, he'll probably get a more appealing offer elsewhere in terms of potential playing time.
It's too bad Profar probably can't play competent RF defense...
Might as well add some more context to this post. He's 7 years younger than McCutchen & profiles as a much better hitter going forward. He's also a switch hitter & prior to last year when he was the Padres full time LF, he displayed a ton of positional versatility.
For example, in '21:
LF 118 PAs
RF 98 PAs
CF 72 PAs
1B 58 PAs
PH 36 PAs
2B 30 PAs
In '22 he had a 108 wRC+ hitting lefty & 115 as a righty. Much better walk & strikeout rates than McCutcheon. If he is capable of being non-disastrous in right, was willing to reprise his '21 role & the price was right, he would be an elite versatile piece to fill out the roster.
If the overall defense of the OF were better I might agree with you, but IMO part of the cost of acquiring him is the lack of a defensive upgrade.McCutchen, last 3 years, ops+: 102, 109, 99 (104 total)
He's an average or slightly above average bat, with decent power, good speed, and is below average (or outright bad) defensively. But depending on cost, wouldn't be a bad guy to have on the roster.
2023 season baseball ages for that group: Devers (26), Casas (23), Whitlock (27), Bello (24), Yoshida (29).Probably time for a bump given the Story news and timeline.
I think with the Story news that the overall goals of this offseason and the pending '23 season must be adjusted. Given the news I think the most important items of this offseason are as follows...
Extend Devers:Luckily we can check this off and so in a way that feels very fair to the team and player- Reset Luxury Tax: Because of the structure of the Devers extension, this look extremely achievable. Under no circumstance would it be acceptable to not reset in 2023.
- Find 3-4 Year Piece: I very much believe they should be searching for a cost controlled player that fits some holes within the system and they should be willing to give up major league talent to get there. I'd prefer a right handed outfielder with power, but another starting pitcher would work as well. MLB player's Verdugo, Pivetta, Duran, Dalbec, Paxton, Refsnyder, plus non Casas, Bello, Mayer, Bleis prospects all need to be available.
- Build the middle: The SS and now second base problem isn't just a 2023 problem. The Red Sox need to add catching, SS, CF, and 2B depth. These do not have to be superstars, but they need to address this not just for 2023 but 2024 as well. The pending free agent class is truly horrible.
- Core Experience: I do believe that Devers, Casas, Whitlock, Bello, and Yoshida is the start of something. I almost care more about those 5 players performance than wins and losses for 2023.
I agree 1,000% with the bolded. I'm going to add Valdez, Hock and Mata to that group as well, and seeing how Story comes back. To me there is really no difference between finishing 1 game out the playoffs or 30. None. The only difference is how you get there, and I think it's much better to "get there" because of the performance of young players that you can build around than some great season by Chris Sale and Justin Turner (obvious trade implications of jettisoning older players aside).Probably time for a bump given the Story news and timeline.
I think with the Story news that the overall goals of this offseason and the pending '23 season must be adjusted. Given the news I think the most important items of this offseason are as follows...
Extend Devers:Luckily we can check this off and so in a way that feels very fair to the team and player- Reset Luxury Tax: Because of the structure of the Devers extension, this look extremely achievable. Under no circumstance would it be acceptable to not reset in 2023.
- Find 3-4 Year Piece: I very much believe they should be searching for a cost controlled player that fits some holes within the system and they should be willing to give up major league talent to get there. I'd prefer a right handed outfielder with power, but another starting pitcher would work as well. MLB player's Verdugo, Pivetta, Duran, Dalbec, Paxton, Refsnyder, plus non Casas, Bello, Mayer, Bleis prospects all need to be available.
- Build the middle: The SS and now second base problem isn't just a 2023 problem. The Red Sox need to add catching, SS, CF, and 2B depth. These do not have to be superstars, but they need to address this not just for 2023 but 2024 as well. The pending free agent class is truly horrible.
- Core Experience: I do believe that Devers, Casas, Whitlock, Bello, and Yoshida is the start of something. I almost care more about those 5 players performance than wins and losses for 2023.
Same here. Just the fact that they are playing 20 fewer games against AL East teams increases the chances of remaining competitive longer.I dunno, I think there’s a big difference in finishing one game out of the playoffs or 30. There’s a lot of a value in a competitive and enjoyable season and all that comes with it, IMO. I wouldn’t mortgage the future for this years team but I think the organization should look for incremental improvements wherever they can. You never know what happens once they start playing.
Sure - in the latter scenario you have a chance to get Marcelo Mayer. In the former you don't.I dunno, I think there’s a big difference in finishing one game out of the playoffs or 30. There’s a lot of a value in a competitive and enjoyable season and all that comes with it, IMO. I wouldn’t mortgage the future for this years team but I think the organization should look for incremental improvements wherever they can. You never know what happens once they start playing.
I'm not sure you're in the minority. I imagine many of us would love to see the Sox be competitive this season on the backs of younger players. It'd give us a lot more hope for '24 and beyond, that's for sure.Sure - in the latter scenario you have a chance to get Marcelo Mayer. In the former you don't.
To be clear, I think it's a WORLD of difference finishing 1 game out because Whitlock, Bello, Casas and Yoshida show they are part of the core vs great seasons from Sale, Turner, Kluber and Hernandez. But it's all in building for 2025 and beyond in my opinion.
Though I fully admit that is personal preference and I'm in the minority.
I wonder if, when Story returns, he’ll let the guys know they can relax and step back a little again?
Duran played 2B in college but only a few games there in the pro's in 2018. I wonder if they play around with him and Kike in spring training at all or is Duran worse at 2B than he is in CF?
Maybe you're in the minority, but not completely wrong.I meant more in that overall I think it's better to have a clear "sell" situation so that you can build up assets for the mid 2020s window. I don't want a repeat of keeping the 2023 version of guys like Wacha, Hill, Strahm and JDM and still finishing in last place. So therefore I'd rather be out by a large margin so that we sell those pieces THAN be "2 games out" at the deadline, miss the playoffs, and not build for the future. I think I'm in the minority there.
To be clear, I do think it's a different scenario IF you end up being close because Whitlock and Bello look like future aces, Casas and Yoshida look like core line up pieces and we come up just a little short as opposed to the kids looking awful but Sale, Paxton, Turner and Hernandez looking great. But in the hypothetical scenario of the former I'd say "buy" to create a winning culture, in the latter I'd say "sell" to get more future assets.
Does anyone know how Duran graded as a CF in the minors? He was horrific in Fenway, but there have been some attempts to pin this on anxiety. He looked like a guy who wasn’t good even when he wasn’t turning outs into inside-the-parkers, but it would be interesting to know if was able to approach average in Worcester. I tend to feel that even if we can attribute some of his struggles to anxiety, Fenway is not the place to work on it. Fenway fans don’t forget and if he’s the starting CF he will have a target on his back from day 1. He probably needs to go back to the minors to relearn 2b or be traded to Kansas City..Duran played 2B in college but only a few games there in the pro's in 2018. I wonder if they play around with him and Kike in spring training at all or is Duran worse at 2B than he is in CF?
He's never been considered a good outfielder, particularly in CF. They moved him to the outfield because he was athletic and fast, hoping that would cover for his deficiencies until he figured it out. By all appearances, he hasn't really figured it out.Does anyone know how Duran graded as a CF in the minors? He was horrific in Fenway, but there have been some attempts to pin this on anxiety. He looked like a guy who wasn’t good even when he wasn’t turning outs into inside-the-parkers, but it would be interesting to know if was able to approach average in Worcester. I tend to feel that even if we can attribute some of his struggles to anxiety, Fenway is not the place to work on it. Fenway fans don’t forget and if he’s the starting CF he will have a target on his back from day 1. He probably needs to go back to the minors to relearn 2b or be traded to Kansas City..
View: https://twitter.com/sirdugo520/status/1615500837643776000?s=20&t=3UJEdFhp-tdK3INr9mPEuQVerdugo's brother said the following on twitter today:
-had a broken toe for first two months of 2022 season, played through it
- tried to bulk up for power a la Benintendi 2019, switching back this offseason
https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/10ew9to/a_thread_of_tweets_from_verdugos_brother/
View: https://youtu.be/DPvMOVFshyIBoston trainers gave him a workout plan to follow and he’s doing it and then some. Last year we focused on strength and adding size, but the ball changes hurt him, Alex was in top 10 unluckiest hitters in MLB last year. 2023 will be a laser show.
Brother Verdugo's "bulking" info tracks with Cora's observation about his decreased agility.That’s encouraging. Hell, Verdugo hit 304/356/448 in the second half. I think we are reading too much into what was a lousy defensive season, potentially partially rationalized by an injury, and that he will bust out this year.