I was going to do one mega-post on 2024, but if this is any indicator, it would be wayyyyyyyy too long.
Starting Pitching
Brayan Bello - Pre-Arb - 3.99 xFIP
Chris Sale - $25.6m AAV in '24 with a club option for $20m in '25 - 3.61 xFIP
Kutter Crawford - Pre-Arb - 4.13 xFIP
Tanner Houck - Pre-Arb - 3.81 xFIP
Garrett Whitlock - $4.7 AAV with club options in '27 & '28 - 3.86 xFIP
Nick Pivetta - Arb 3, earned $5.4m this season - 3.86 xFIP
Chris Murphy - Pre-Arb - 3.85 xFIP
Others on the 40:
Bryan Mata - Injured this season, hopefully will be returning soon
Brandon Walter - Pre-Arb - 5.39 xFIP
Eligible for Rule 5:
Luis Perales (my #4 Red Sox prospect) - 3.00 ERA & 4.05 xFIP in A+ - should need protecting.
Wikelman Gonzalez (#9) - 1.59 ERA & 3.40 xFIP in AA - should need protecting.
Shane Drohan (#16) - 5.80 ERA & 5.79 xFIP in AAA - should need protecting.
Angel Bastardo (#22) - 3.90 ERA & 3.48 xFIP in A+ - might need protecting.
Juan Daniel Encarnacion (#43) - 5.31 ERA & 5.10 xFIP in A+ - should not need protecting.
Grant Gambrell (#47) - 3.12 ERA & 3.54 xFIP in AA - might need protecting, reminds me of Thad Ward in some ways.
Brian Van Belle (#51) - 6.41 ERA & 4.58 xFIP in AAA - might not be worth protecting, but is close to Major League ready.
Chih-Jung ("C.J.") Liu (#58) - 5.02 ERA & 3.58 xFIP in AA - should not need protecting, they might like him more than me.
Gabriel Jackson (#117) - 3.18 ERA & 4.49 xFIP in A - does not need protecting.
Older Minor Leaguers:
Kyle Barraclough (33 y/o) - 2.75 ERA & 5.53 xFIP in AAA - purchased from Independent Ball 6/19/23, not sure of status for next year.
Dinelson Lamet (31 y/o) - 3.72 ERA & 4.53 xFIP in AAA - signed as a Minor League free agent 6/28/23, not sure of status for next year.
Options:
Corey Kluber - 5.77 xFIP - The Red Sox have a club option for $11m next year which we can safely agree that they will decline.
Our Free Agents:
James Paxton - 3.55 xFIP - Paxton is eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer of approximately $20m for one season. If he rejects the QO & signs with another team, we would get a compensation pick after the 2nd round (as we are under the tax threshold). He could also accept the QO or re-sign after rejecting it.
Some Available Free Agents:
Shohei Ohtani - 3.52 xFIP
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 1.67 ERA in Japan
Julio Urias - 4.38 xFIP
Aaron Nola - 3.82 xFIP
Luis Severino - 5.06 xFIP
Blake Snell - 3.60 xFIP
Clayton Kershaw - 3.28 xFIP
Lucas Giolito - 4.42 xFIP
Frankie Montas - 3.61 xFIP (2022)
Jack Flaherty - 4.46 xFIP
Jordan Montgomery - 4.11 xFIP
Martin Perez - 5.23 xFIP
Carlos Carrasco - 4.94 xFIP
Michael Lorenzen - 4.22 xFIP
Noah Syndergaard - 4.92 xFIP
Sonny Gray - 3.83 xFIP
Kenta Maeda - 3.83 xFIP
Rich Hill - 4.71 xFIP
Hyun Jin Ryu - 3.94 xFIP (2021)
Zack Greinke - 4.46 xFIP
Tyler Mahle - 4.03 xFIP (2022)
Jake Odorizzi - 4.70 xFIP (2022)
Alex Wood - 5.29 xFIP
Potential Free Agents:
Eduardo Rodriguez - 3.62 xFIP - Has an opt out or can opt into 3/$49m.
Marcus Stroman - 3.79 xFIP - $21m player option.
Charlie Morton - 4.09 xFIP - $20m team option.
Seth Lugo - 3.52 xFIP - $7.5m player option.
Lance Lynn - 4.04 xFIP - $18m team option.
Kyle Hendricks - 4.55 xFIP - $16m team option.
Ross Stripling - 3.82 xFIP - $15m player option.
Andrew Heaney - 4.45 xFIP - $13m player option.
Alex Cobb - 3.34 xFIP - $10m team option.
German Marquez - 3.48 xFIP - $16m team option.
Johnny Cueto - 4.79 xFIP - $10.5m team option.
Sean Manaea - 3.98 xFIP - $12.5m player option.
Michael Wacha - 4.62 xFIP - mutual option (it's complicated).
Mike Clevinger - 5.40 xFIP - mutual option ($12m with $4m buyout).
My Overall Thoughts:
We have a lot of returning options next year, but seem to be lacking at least 1 more top of the rotation starter. The Red Sox can have a payroll of approximately $280m next year without suffering anything other than economic penalties, & I would expect them to be not too far from that #. I believe that gives them about $80m or $90m to spend on free agency this year, & they have very few holes to fill.
Adding 1 (or maybe 2) high end starters who cost just money makes a ton of sense. My first choice is Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
I would like to see Paxton sign a long-term deal somewhere else & bring back a 2nd round comp pick.
We already have a lot of starting pitchers on our 40-man, & as well as several we will likely need to protect, even though they are mostly further away from being able to help the team. In order to get around this, we will hopefully be able to trade some people. Other teams obviously have their own 40-man issues, but a player like Brandon Walter who has had "success" in the Majors (3.07 ERA/5.39 xFIP) could be worth a further away flyer or two, and I do not really see him as someone with a place on next year's 40-man roster.
I could also see them moving on from a Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Pivetta, or Sale if the price is right, especially if they add a front-line starter or two in free agency.
They could trade for a starter this off season, but I really don't see much point with some of the options on the open market & the budget available - unless it's something where they're clearing out like 5 40-man guys for 1, but most teams don't have that kind of room anyway.
My 1st guess at next year's rotation...
Bello
Yoshinobu
Sale
Houck
Crawford
But I expect to be wrong.
Starting Pitching
Brayan Bello - Pre-Arb - 3.99 xFIP
Chris Sale - $25.6m AAV in '24 with a club option for $20m in '25 - 3.61 xFIP
Kutter Crawford - Pre-Arb - 4.13 xFIP
Tanner Houck - Pre-Arb - 3.81 xFIP
Garrett Whitlock - $4.7 AAV with club options in '27 & '28 - 3.86 xFIP
Nick Pivetta - Arb 3, earned $5.4m this season - 3.86 xFIP
Chris Murphy - Pre-Arb - 3.85 xFIP
Others on the 40:
Bryan Mata - Injured this season, hopefully will be returning soon
Brandon Walter - Pre-Arb - 5.39 xFIP
Eligible for Rule 5:
Luis Perales (my #4 Red Sox prospect) - 3.00 ERA & 4.05 xFIP in A+ - should need protecting.
Wikelman Gonzalez (#9) - 1.59 ERA & 3.40 xFIP in AA - should need protecting.
Shane Drohan (#16) - 5.80 ERA & 5.79 xFIP in AAA - should need protecting.
Angel Bastardo (#22) - 3.90 ERA & 3.48 xFIP in A+ - might need protecting.
Juan Daniel Encarnacion (#43) - 5.31 ERA & 5.10 xFIP in A+ - should not need protecting.
Grant Gambrell (#47) - 3.12 ERA & 3.54 xFIP in AA - might need protecting, reminds me of Thad Ward in some ways.
Brian Van Belle (#51) - 6.41 ERA & 4.58 xFIP in AAA - might not be worth protecting, but is close to Major League ready.
Chih-Jung ("C.J.") Liu (#58) - 5.02 ERA & 3.58 xFIP in AA - should not need protecting, they might like him more than me.
Gabriel Jackson (#117) - 3.18 ERA & 4.49 xFIP in A - does not need protecting.
Older Minor Leaguers:
Kyle Barraclough (33 y/o) - 2.75 ERA & 5.53 xFIP in AAA - purchased from Independent Ball 6/19/23, not sure of status for next year.
Dinelson Lamet (31 y/o) - 3.72 ERA & 4.53 xFIP in AAA - signed as a Minor League free agent 6/28/23, not sure of status for next year.
Options:
Corey Kluber - 5.77 xFIP - The Red Sox have a club option for $11m next year which we can safely agree that they will decline.
Our Free Agents:
James Paxton - 3.55 xFIP - Paxton is eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer of approximately $20m for one season. If he rejects the QO & signs with another team, we would get a compensation pick after the 2nd round (as we are under the tax threshold). He could also accept the QO or re-sign after rejecting it.
Some Available Free Agents:
Shohei Ohtani - 3.52 xFIP
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 1.67 ERA in Japan
Julio Urias - 4.38 xFIP
Aaron Nola - 3.82 xFIP
Luis Severino - 5.06 xFIP
Blake Snell - 3.60 xFIP
Clayton Kershaw - 3.28 xFIP
Lucas Giolito - 4.42 xFIP
Frankie Montas - 3.61 xFIP (2022)
Jack Flaherty - 4.46 xFIP
Jordan Montgomery - 4.11 xFIP
Martin Perez - 5.23 xFIP
Carlos Carrasco - 4.94 xFIP
Michael Lorenzen - 4.22 xFIP
Noah Syndergaard - 4.92 xFIP
Sonny Gray - 3.83 xFIP
Kenta Maeda - 3.83 xFIP
Rich Hill - 4.71 xFIP
Hyun Jin Ryu - 3.94 xFIP (2021)
Zack Greinke - 4.46 xFIP
Tyler Mahle - 4.03 xFIP (2022)
Jake Odorizzi - 4.70 xFIP (2022)
Alex Wood - 5.29 xFIP
Potential Free Agents:
Eduardo Rodriguez - 3.62 xFIP - Has an opt out or can opt into 3/$49m.
Marcus Stroman - 3.79 xFIP - $21m player option.
Charlie Morton - 4.09 xFIP - $20m team option.
Seth Lugo - 3.52 xFIP - $7.5m player option.
Lance Lynn - 4.04 xFIP - $18m team option.
Kyle Hendricks - 4.55 xFIP - $16m team option.
Ross Stripling - 3.82 xFIP - $15m player option.
Andrew Heaney - 4.45 xFIP - $13m player option.
Alex Cobb - 3.34 xFIP - $10m team option.
German Marquez - 3.48 xFIP - $16m team option.
Johnny Cueto - 4.79 xFIP - $10.5m team option.
Sean Manaea - 3.98 xFIP - $12.5m player option.
Michael Wacha - 4.62 xFIP - mutual option (it's complicated).
Mike Clevinger - 5.40 xFIP - mutual option ($12m with $4m buyout).
My Overall Thoughts:
We have a lot of returning options next year, but seem to be lacking at least 1 more top of the rotation starter. The Red Sox can have a payroll of approximately $280m next year without suffering anything other than economic penalties, & I would expect them to be not too far from that #. I believe that gives them about $80m or $90m to spend on free agency this year, & they have very few holes to fill.
Adding 1 (or maybe 2) high end starters who cost just money makes a ton of sense. My first choice is Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
I would like to see Paxton sign a long-term deal somewhere else & bring back a 2nd round comp pick.
We already have a lot of starting pitchers on our 40-man, & as well as several we will likely need to protect, even though they are mostly further away from being able to help the team. In order to get around this, we will hopefully be able to trade some people. Other teams obviously have their own 40-man issues, but a player like Brandon Walter who has had "success" in the Majors (3.07 ERA/5.39 xFIP) could be worth a further away flyer or two, and I do not really see him as someone with a place on next year's 40-man roster.
I could also see them moving on from a Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Pivetta, or Sale if the price is right, especially if they add a front-line starter or two in free agency.
They could trade for a starter this off season, but I really don't see much point with some of the options on the open market & the budget available - unless it's something where they're clearing out like 5 40-man guys for 1, but most teams don't have that kind of room anyway.
My 1st guess at next year's rotation...
Bello
Yoshinobu
Sale
Houck
Crawford
But I expect to be wrong.
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