I think you should update "IDFK" to Basic Rate of Exact strike percentage/Z-contact, or "BREZ".
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Yessir. We will have to see if our CBO (Craig Breslow Official) utilizes BREZ when making his decisions.
Now that it has a name, I guess I better do it for Free Agents, too:
So you heard it here 1st...we're adding Lance Lynn & Blake Snell this off-season.
| Rank | Pitcher | Z-Contact | Z-NonContact | Strike % | BREZ |
1 | Lance Lynn | 81.5% | 18.5% | 63.69% | 11.78% |
2 | Blake Snell | 80.8% | 19.2% | 58.36% | 11.21% |
3 | Shohei Ohtani | 82.7% | 17.3% | 63.81% | 11.04% |
4 | Hyun Jin Ryu | 84.0% | 16.0% | 66.27% | 10.60% |
5 | Clayton Kershaw | 84.4% | 15.6% | 65.85% | 10.27% |
6 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 84.3% | 15.7% | 65.33% | 10.26% |
7 | Jordan Montgomery | 84.9% | 15.1% | 64.18% | 9.69% |
8 | Frankie Montas | 85.0% | 15.0% | 64.33% | 9.65% |
9 | Jack Flaherty | 84.3% | 15.7% | 61.40% | 9.64% |
10 | Kenta Maeda | 85.2% | 14.8% | 64.39% | 9.53% |
11 | Lucas Giolito | 85.0% | 15.0% | 63.27% | 9.49% |
12 | Andrew Heaney | 85.0% | 15.0% | 63.03% | 9.45% |
13 | Tyler Mahle | 85.4% | 14.6% | 62.73% | 9.16% |
14 | Michael Wacha | 86.0% | 14.0% | 64.76% | 9.07% |
15 | Michael Lorenzen | 86.4% | 13.6% | 65.72% | 8.94% |
16 | Charlie Morton | 85.5% | 14.5% | 61.02% | 8.85% |
17 | Aaron Nola | 87.3% | 12.7% | 67.26% | 8.54% |
18 | Mike Clevinger | 87.9% | 12.1% | 65.56% | 7.93% |
19 | Seth Lugo | 88.3% | 11.7% | 65.05% | 7.61% |
20 | Kyle Gibson | 87.8% | 12.2% | 62.19% | 7.59% |
21 | Sonny Gray | 89.0% | 11.0% | 64.10% | 7.05% |
So you heard it here 1st...we're adding Lance Lynn & Blake Snell this off-season.
I mentioned he and Maeda a while back. I like both of them as the "4th starter" acquisition.
His BREZ number makes me wonder what kind of offers Ryu will be getting this offseason.
He'd not be anyone's idea of our only starting pitcher acquisition, but he might be a solid addition along with someone higher rated and younger.
In that I personally think of Bello as a 2 right now. So I think the Sox need to go out and acquire a 1, a 3 and I'd like to see them add a 4 as well - with Houck or Crawford as the 5th starter.
My "ideal" would be to pay for Nola, Bello, trade for Gilbert (probably not realistic) sign one of Maeda or Ryu and then you have "Houford" as SP5. Since even I don't think of trading for Gilbert as realistic, I'll just say that I hope the Red Sox can identify a starter from another organization that they can move some (very good) prospect redundancy to acquire a young, top half of the rotation starter with term and look to extend them.
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Keith Law ranked his Top 50 free agents for The Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/4987045/2023/11/02/mlb-free-agents-ranking-ohtani-bellinger/
Here's how he ranks the starting pitchers...
1) Ohtani
3) Nola
4) Yamamoto
5) Gray
6) Montgomery
7) Snell
8) ERod
11) Imanaga
12) Hendricks
17) Lugo
18) Clevinger
20) Wacha
21) Kershaw
22) Maeda
25) Giolito
26) Lorenzen
30) Flaherty
31) Morton
35) Manaea
39) Severino
40) N. Martinez
43) Gibson
44) Heaney
9 of the top 12 being starting pitchers really underscores how terrible of a free agency class this is for hitters...
Bloom obviously ahead of the curve in stockpiling hitting.
https://theathletic.com/4987045/2023/11/02/mlb-free-agents-ranking-ohtani-bellinger/
Here's how he ranks the starting pitchers...
1) Ohtani
3) Nola
4) Yamamoto
5) Gray
6) Montgomery
7) Snell
8) ERod
11) Imanaga
12) Hendricks
17) Lugo
18) Clevinger
20) Wacha
21) Kershaw
22) Maeda
25) Giolito
26) Lorenzen
30) Flaherty
31) Morton
35) Manaea
39) Severino
40) N. Martinez
43) Gibson
44) Heaney
9 of the top 12 being starting pitchers really underscores how terrible of a free agency class this is for hitters...
Bloom obviously ahead of the curve in stockpiling hitting.
I asked Keith in the comments if he thought Ohtani could play a major league level outfield, if in a worst case scenario he couldn't pitch anymore, and he said yes.
Sonny Gray will be 34 in a week, Eduardo has pitched over 160 IP once in his career. Sure we literally have five swingmen/inning eaters but we need to grab something consistent in the rotation beyond Bello.
Agree totally. Which is why I want no part of Snell. He's never pitched more than 180ip and has been less than 130ip in 5 of his 7 MLB seasons (not counting 2020). He hasn't consistently been healthy before his age 30 seasons, I see no reason to assume he's going to get healthier as he ages.
If innings is your primary preference, then Aaron Nola is your guy. He's qualified for the ERA title (min 1 IP per game) every year for 7 years! He's averaged over 190 IP (prorated for 2020) at a career ERA of 3.72. But he's already 30.
Sin Duda beat me to it. BUT! Gray was only 9 IP behind Nola this year. He has had one other recent season at 175, and a couple early seasons topping 200, so he's not a bad bet (yet).
Well this is why GMs get paid, and fired. If you get the good, healthy version of Snell, you look like a genius. The other versions, not so much. Of course the Padres got the former and still became the season's biggest disappointment. They finished two games behind the WS-bound D-backs, a *14-game* reversal of xW-L. If baseball doesn't drive you insane, you aren't paying enough attention.
The Red Sox will probably need to grab three starters or two high end starters.
Expecting anything from Sale at this point is a fool's errand. Starter X, Bello, Starter Y, Crawford/Houck/Pivetta/Starter Z, Crawford/Houck/Pivetta/Starter Z
I can't express enough how much I would bid on Yamamato. There is simply nothing in the system. It is amazing how terrible the pitching situation is in the Red Sox system. Another guy I would look at is Trevor Bauer.
Expecting anything from Sale at this point is a fool's errand. Starter X, Bello, Starter Y, Crawford/Houck/Pivetta/Starter Z, Crawford/Houck/Pivetta/Starter Z
I can't express enough how much I would bid on Yamamato. There is simply nothing in the system. It is amazing how terrible the pitching situation is in the Red Sox system. Another guy I would look at is Trevor Bauer.
Welcome back, sir.
Bauer thread for you: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/mlb-suspends-trevor-bauer-for-2-years-with-no-pay.33942/
Yamamoto thread for you: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/how-much-do-you-want-your-team-to-bid-for-yamamoto.40561/
Bauer thread for you: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/mlb-suspends-trevor-bauer-for-2-years-with-no-pay.33942/
It's actually not that bad given they've only had a few drafts and international signing periods to rebuild after the end of the Dombrowski era. But, admittedly, most of the near talent is relief pitching and the starters are another couple of years off (Perales and Monegro are going to move quickly).
It's an interesting debate, right? Assuming we keep all our potential starters & add 2 new guys, that would leave us with a lot of options.
Pitcher #1
Pitcher #2
Bello
Sale
Crawford
Houck
Pivetta
Whitlock
Murphy
Wikelman
Walter
So is it more important that the top 2 guys can eat innings...or is it more important that they pitch really well when they're out there? It's obviously not a completely binary decision, but here are the averages from the last 3 years (sorted by avg fWAR, ages at start of next season)...
Nola (30) 193 IP, 4.09 ERA, 4.9 fWAR
Ohtani (29) 143 IP, 2.83 ERA, 3.7 fWAR
Montgomery (31) 175 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.4 fWAR
Gray (34) 146 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.4 fWAR
Snell (31) 146 IP, 3.15 ERA, 3.3 fWAR
Kershaw (36) 126 IP, 2.76 ERA, 3.2 fWAR
Morton (40) 174 IP, 3.77 ERA, 2.9 fWAR
ERod (30) 134 IP, 4.04 ERA, 2.5 fWAR
Gibson (37) 181 IP, 4.49 ERA, 2.5 fWAR
Giolito (29) 175 IP, 4.43 ERA, 2.3 fWAR
Lynn (36) 154 IP, 4.24 ERA, 2.2 fWAR
Mahle (29) 109 IP, 3.94 ERA, 2.1 fWAR
Montas (31) 110 IP, 3.67 ERA, 2.0 fWAR
Manaea (32) 152 IP, 4.41 ERA,1.8 fWAR
Wacha (32) 129 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.7 fWAR
Maeda (35) 70 IP, 4.44 ERA 1.6 fWAR
Hendricks (34) 134 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.4 fWAR
Lugo (34) 86 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.1 fWAR
Heaney (32) 117 IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.1 fWAR
Ryu (37) 83 IP, 4.32 ERA, 1.0 fWAR
Lorenzen (32) 93 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.0 fWAR
Clevinger (33) 75 IP, 4.03 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
Flaherty (28) 86 IP, 4.35 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
N. Martinez (33) 72 IP, 3.45 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
Severino (30) 66 IP, 4.65 ERA, 0.3 fWAR
My biggest thing with Nola is that if you're outbidding DD for him, there's probably something wrong with his arm or you're paying too much.
Just for fun, here's our holdovers. It's not really going to be great for comparison purposes because out of all our guys, only Sale & Pivetta have been starters the last 3 years.
Pivetta (31) 159 IP, 4.39 ERA, 1.9 fWAR
Houck (27) 78 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.4 fWAR
Crawford (27) 77 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.3 fWAR
Whitlock (27) 74 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.3 fWAR
Sale (34) 50 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.0 fWAR
Bello (25) 71 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.0 fWAR (134 IP/year including MiLB)
I think I'm more interested in seeing who Breslow thinks are the best options more so than trying to divine the best choices without knowing what the actual market will be for anyone. This offseason will definitely be a very fascinating first test.
Pitcher #1
Pitcher #2
Bello
Sale
Crawford
Houck
Pivetta
Whitlock
Murphy
Wikelman
Walter
So is it more important that the top 2 guys can eat innings...or is it more important that they pitch really well when they're out there? It's obviously not a completely binary decision, but here are the averages from the last 3 years (sorted by avg fWAR, ages at start of next season)...
Nola (30) 193 IP, 4.09 ERA, 4.9 fWAR
Ohtani (29) 143 IP, 2.83 ERA, 3.7 fWAR
Montgomery (31) 175 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.4 fWAR
Gray (34) 146 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.4 fWAR
Snell (31) 146 IP, 3.15 ERA, 3.3 fWAR
Kershaw (36) 126 IP, 2.76 ERA, 3.2 fWAR
Morton (40) 174 IP, 3.77 ERA, 2.9 fWAR
ERod (30) 134 IP, 4.04 ERA, 2.5 fWAR
Gibson (37) 181 IP, 4.49 ERA, 2.5 fWAR
Giolito (29) 175 IP, 4.43 ERA, 2.3 fWAR
Lynn (36) 154 IP, 4.24 ERA, 2.2 fWAR
Mahle (29) 109 IP, 3.94 ERA, 2.1 fWAR
Montas (31) 110 IP, 3.67 ERA, 2.0 fWAR
Manaea (32) 152 IP, 4.41 ERA,1.8 fWAR
Wacha (32) 129 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.7 fWAR
Maeda (35) 70 IP, 4.44 ERA 1.6 fWAR
Hendricks (34) 134 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.4 fWAR
Lugo (34) 86 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.1 fWAR
Heaney (32) 117 IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.1 fWAR
Ryu (37) 83 IP, 4.32 ERA, 1.0 fWAR
Lorenzen (32) 93 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.0 fWAR
Clevinger (33) 75 IP, 4.03 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
Flaherty (28) 86 IP, 4.35 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
N. Martinez (33) 72 IP, 3.45 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
Severino (30) 66 IP, 4.65 ERA, 0.3 fWAR
My biggest thing with Nola is that if you're outbidding DD for him, there's probably something wrong with his arm or you're paying too much.
Just for fun, here's our holdovers. It's not really going to be great for comparison purposes because out of all our guys, only Sale & Pivetta have been starters the last 3 years.
Pivetta (31) 159 IP, 4.39 ERA, 1.9 fWAR
Houck (27) 78 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.4 fWAR
Crawford (27) 77 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.3 fWAR
Whitlock (27) 74 IP, 3.51 ERA, 1.3 fWAR
Sale (34) 50 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.0 fWAR
Bello (25) 71 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.0 fWAR (134 IP/year including MiLB)
I think I'm more interested in seeing who Breslow thinks are the best options more so than trying to divine the best choices without knowing what the actual market will be for anyone. This offseason will definitely be a very fascinating first test.
There is nothing. Literally nothing and they traded away a perennial MVP candidate. I can't express how awful that is. Bloom is gone (thank god) so lets be very honest about the state of the team and the system right now. On the pitching side of the ball it is bare bare bones outside of some lottery tickets deep down.
The Red Sox spent years screwing around with potential starters and now have a collection of swing men. There is utility to these guys especially in today's game however they only have one real starter and the corpse of another starter. They are by far the weakest team from a pitching prospective in the MLB right now. Outside of the Bello contract (which was a great job) it is Hiroshima '45. Mata is not mid rotation starter and is probably at best in the swingman. Drohan is not a MLB starter. Wikelman Gonzalez (a Dombrowski signing) is a couple of years away at best and could end up a rotation piece. Monegro is around the level of a college draftee from this summer and Perales is looking like a repeat of Mata but since he is around Monegro he does have a swinger's chance at a future rotation piece.
It is just a damning landscape it would be amazing if anyone hired Bloom to run a team without him going back to working within an organization for a while. You can't be this bad and have this little of pipeline.
I'm very glad that we have moved on from Bloom as well, but I don't necessarily think the bolded is true.
He could do very well in any of the multitude of markets where winning is nice if it happens, irrelevant if it doesn't, and the teams can be +/- 6 games of 84 wins each season and it doesn't matter. They'd sometimes make the playoffs, most times not, and probably never win a freaking thing. But they'd be consistently "alright" and have a decent to good farm system (depending on the site). Miami, Mil, Cin, Colorado, Oakland, LAA, Seattle and the entire AL Central could all do a heck of a lot worse than Chaim Bloom.
However, the Boston Red Sox can (and should) aspire for more.
*Though I tend to mostly agree about the state of the pitching (though I can't with any confidence speak about if it's truly the worst pitching farm system in the league or not). However factoring in the MLB pitching roster and the high minors pitchers, I agree: It's absolutely abysmal.
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Probably not the comparison you want to make if you're trying to sign Japanese pitchers. Dresden '45? Chernobyl '86?
Here are Law's writeups of the top starting pitchers on his list:
3. Aaron Nola, RHP
Seasonal age in 2024: 31
Bats: R | Throws: R
2023 team: Phillies
Stats: 4.46 ERA, 193 2/3 IP, 45 BB, 202 K, 32 HR, 2.1 bWAR/3.9 fWAR
Nola didn’t have the best platform year of any free-agent pitcher, but he’s the one I’d pay the most right now, given his track record, stuff, and the mechanical tweaks he made in mid-September that turned him back into an ace. He’s a command guy who’s had a plus curveball for years and works with both a four- and a two-seamer, getting added deception from how he mixes the two, with a changeup that might be plus as well and a slider/cutter that’s a fifth pitch but works in part because he doesn’t use it too often.
His command seemed to abandon him in the first half of 2023, and he was awful with men on base all season — especially with runners in scoring position. The Phillies worked with him to get him more online to the plate and keep his shoulders square when working from the stretch, as well as incorporating a slide-step to help him control the running game. In his first six starts after the change, two in the regular season and four in the playoffs, hitters went 8-for-37 off him with men on base, a whole lot better than the .303 average he’d given up with men on base before then, although minuscule sample size caveats apply. He’s said that he felt like he regained command to his glove side and didn’t yank the fastball and changeup as much, which is generally what happens when pitchers get or stay online to the plate — they can work better to both sides, maybe at the cost of some deception.
He’s been on the injured list once in the past six seasons, missing a single start in July 2022 with an elbow strain, although he also missed a spring training start in 2020 with “the flu” a few days before the world ended; before that, his last injury of any sort was a UCL sprain in 2017 that was treated with a PRP injection. I think he’s a hidden ace, someone who’ll take off for whoever signs him — and shame on the Phillies if they don’t — even though he might end up more in the $25 million a year range than the $30 million-plus he’s likely to be worth.
4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP
Seasonal age in 2024: 25
Bats: R | Throws: R
2023 team: Orix Buffaloes
Stats: 1.21 ERA, 164 IP, 28 BB, 169 K, 2 HR
Yamamoto might be the best pitcher in NPB right now, and his stuff should certainly allow him to be an above-average starter here — maybe an ace. He’ll sit 94-96 mph with an out pitch in his splitter along with a cutter and a very high-spin curveball, the last of which is somewhat rare for pitchers from Japan. He’s coming off a year when he posted the lowest walk rate (4.4 percent) and ERA (1.21) of his NPB career, missing a start in May due to illness and coming in at 164 innings, his lowest total since the pandemic.
It’s a very unusual delivery, with nothing resembling a windup, but he’s extremely athletic and makes it work for plus command and so far durability; I’d call it “tall and fall,” but nothing about the 5-foot-10 (at most) Yamamoto is “tall.” He does take an enormous stride toward the plate, which should help him generate more power from his lower half and maybe boost his extension to mitigate some of the disadvantages of his lack of height. We’ve seen starters his size have success even in today’s game, including free agents Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman, both listed at 5-foot-10 and maybe an inch or so shorter. Both of those guys became All-Stars by learning to sink the ball to avoid the lack of fastball plane that comes with being short, while Yamamoto works more with a four-seamer that has ride up in the zone and uses a splitter as his primary out pitch.
Yamamoto has avoided major injury, with two oblique muscle strains the most significant ones I could find, so while there’s injury risk with any starter he at least comes in with a fairly clean track record. He has the stuff and the command to be an All-Star here, and the main factor I see in determining if he can be a true ace is if he’ll continue to keep the ball in the park as he has in Japan.
5. Sonny Gray, RHP
Seasonal age in 2024: 33
Bats: R | Throws: R
2023 team: Twins
Stats: 2.79 ERA, 184 IP, 55 BB, 183 K, 8 HR, 5.3 bWAR/5.3 fWAR
Gray is listed at a generous 5-foot-10, but height doesn’t measure heart — or effectiveness, as Gray led the American League in FIP this year and finished second in both bWAR and fWAR thanks to a combination of some of the best control of his career and the lowest home run rate of any starter in baseball. Gray’s been a good starter for a decade now, with some ups and downs, but part of his success in 2023 was the introduction of a different slider, tagged a sweeper by Statcast, that was the most effective pitch of its type in 2023, worth 19 runs above average thanks to huge vertical break and above-average horizontal break as well. He gets good ride on a high-spin four-seamer and pounds the zone with it, with only 31.6 percent of four-seamers he threw in 2023 going for balls.
He didn’t miss a start in 2023, missing eight starts the year before due to hamstring and pectoral strains, with no history of any significant arm problems. The extremely low home-run rate is probably not sustainable — his 5.2 percent home runs per fly ball rate is the lowest for any qualifying starter in a full season since 2014, but he does keep the ball in the park more than the average pitcher because he’s a slight ground-ball guy and limits hard contact. His age might limit the length of contracts teams are willing to offer him, but he should do no worse than three years and $20 million AAV, and probably better given his combination of durability of effectiveness.
6. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Seasonal age in 2024: 31
Bats: L | Throws: L
2023 team: Cardinals and Rangers
Stats: 3.20 ERA, 188 2/3 IP, 48 BB, 166 K, 18 HR, 4.1 bWAR/4.3 fWAR
I wrote about Montgomery at some length in early October, as he has gone way beyond my original projections for him to become a back-end starter. He’s a strike thrower who gets substantial deception from the difference in movement between his sinker and four-seamer, while his stuff across the board has improved by 2-3 mph over the past four seasons. Montgomery leads with the sinker, throwing it for more than half of his pitches, but has a real four-pitch mix with the four-seamer, changeup, and curveball, dominating left-handed batters across the board — he’s allowed just two homers to lefties in the past two seasons combined and held them to a .251 OBP. He’s effective enough against right-handers, limiting them to a .295 OBP over that same span, but they’ve tagged him for 37 homers since the start of 2022, a function of his arm slot and the fact that most of the pitches he throws move in towards a righty’s bat.
He did undergo Tommy John surgery in 2018 but hasn’t missed a start since the beginning of the 2020 season, including 32 starts each of the past two years. Montgomery is definitely at his peak right now, with his best velocity and results, but I like this formula — strikes, deception, changing speeds, without reliance on huge velocity — to age well, so he’s one of the few starting pitchers on this market I’d be willing to go four years for, and I think he’ll probably end up with five-year offers.
7. Blake Snell, LHP
Seasonal age in 2024: 31
Bats: L | Throws: L
2023 team: Padres
Stats: 2.25 ERA, 180 IP, 99 BB, 234 K, 15 HR, 6.0 bWAR/4.1 fWAR
Snell might win the NL Cy Young Award this year despite a career-high walk rate of 13.3 percent, which I believe would be the highest ever for a Cy winner in either league, and I think that one figure, in particular, has to loom large for teams considering investing in him long-term. He’s led his league in ERA twice, 2023 and 2018 (when he also won the Cy), but those are also the only two seasons when he’s thrown more than 130 innings, and a big part of his performance this year was unusual success in stranding runners on base — his LOB percent was 86.7 percent, the highest in baseball by more than six points. That’s not sustainable, and when you’re walking as many guys as he does and you aren’t stranding runners at league-leading rates, you’re going to give up more runs, which is what his FIP of 3.44 indicates.
He’s a good pitcher, just not a No. 1 starter or someone who projects to sub-3 ERAs, and he hasn’t been very durable in his career; if someone’s paying him to be a mid-rotation guy, they’ll capture some upside in his healthy years to make up for the years when he can’t pitch as much, but if he gets paid like a No. 2 or better, he probably won’t produce up to the level of the contract.
8. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
Seasonal age in 2024: 31
Bats: L | Throws: L
2023 team: Tigers
Stats: 3.30 ERA, 152 2/3 IP, 48 BB, 143 K, 15 HR, 3.5 bWAR/3.0 fWAR
Rodriguez made 26 starts in 2023, most of a full season, missing all of June with a finger injury, but after missing the 2020 season with COVID-19-induced myocarditis and only making 17 starts in 2022, it’s enough for him to walk away from three years and $49 million guaranteed. He struggled for years to find a real breaking pitch but eventually landed on a cutter, relegating his inconsistent slider to fourth in the arsenal, with the fastball/changeup always his bread and butter, and he’s had years when he’s limited hard contact enough to be an above-average starter. The slider may even have been better in 2023 because he used it more sparingly and threw it almost 2 mph harder, although I doubt it’s going to be a real weapon given his chronic inability to spin anything.
He’s more of a mid-rotation guy, a No. 3 or a No. 4 for a contender because he walks a few more guys than you’d like (never below 7 percent) and since he returned from the heart scare he’s been more prone to allowing hard contact. He hasn’t had a significant arm injury in the big leagues, missing time with for the reasons above, a ribcage strain, knee surgery back in 2018, and taking time for personal reasons in 2022, enough that I’d view him as a 25-start guy on average, but one who pitches at a league-average or better level, which gets you $20 million-plus in recent winters.
11. Shota Imanaga, LHP
Seasonal age in 2024: 30
Bats: L | Throws: L
2023 team: Yokohama Bay Stars
Stats: 2.80 ERA, 148 IP, 24 BB, 174 K, 17 HR
Imanaga had a coming-out party of sorts when he started the WBC Championship game this past March against the United States, throwing just two innings but showing good command of a four-pitch mix that helps him project as a mid-rotation starter if he does come to MLB. Imanaga works at 91-94 mph with very high spin rates that help generate both ride and run on the pitch, while he has a potential out pitch for guys on both sides with his splitter, a slow but huge-breaking curveball, and a slider that’ll probably be his primary breaking ball against big-league hitters.
He’s coming off his best year in NPB where he struck out 29.4 percent of batters he faced and walked just 3.4 percent, both career bests, with that walk rate about a third below his previous career low. He allowed 13 of his 17 homers last year to right-handed batters, however, as he cuts himself off slightly in his landing and spins off his front heel, all of which might need some adjustment to face MLB right-handers multiple times. There’s No. 3 starter potential here, especially if this new level of control holds, and he should aim for more than Kodai Senga’s five-year, $75 million deal, which was a screaming bargain for the Mets in year one.
Mata, like many a pitching prospect before him, was done in by injuries combined with the lost 2020 season. Perales isn’t a repeat (unless we’re expecting covid to close America for a year and Perales to have season ending surgery right after). He’s also just 20 as he signed as a 16 year old. Monegro, also a 20 year old in high A (although he’s older than Perales), is fine. And that curveball of his is a killer.
I’m well in the minority but I don’t think the pitching situation is as dire as most do. We should add and we will, but I don’t think we need to import 3 or 4 new names.
I still like the idea of keeping 2 of 4 of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta in the rotation. Maybe one of those guys probably moves cleanly into the pen, but beyond that I’d probably prefer see that guy traded than converted to a MIRP/long reliever.
That’s where it gets tricky. If one of those guys is traded, it's probably for starting pitching. And whoever we get in return would have to be reliably better than who we’re shipping out. I’m not sure there are a ton of pitchers available who fit the bill.
Put it this way. I think the Sox should trade something for Shane Bieber (Verdugo, preferably), and hopefully extend him. But if I'm Cleveland's GM, I'm probably very happy to trade Bieber for Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford.
I still like the idea of keeping 2 of 4 of Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta in the rotation. Maybe one of those guys probably moves cleanly into the pen, but beyond that I’d probably prefer see that guy traded than converted to a MIRP/long reliever.
That’s where it gets tricky. If one of those guys is traded, it's probably for starting pitching. And whoever we get in return would have to be reliably better than who we’re shipping out. I’m not sure there are a ton of pitchers available who fit the bill.
Put it this way. I think the Sox should trade something for Shane Bieber (Verdugo, preferably), and hopefully extend him. But if I'm Cleveland's GM, I'm probably very happy to trade Bieber for Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford.
Final line on 138 pitches: 9 IP, 9 H, 0 BB 1 ER, 14 K. The 1 ER was on an oppo solo shot in the 2nd by Sheldon Neuse. The 14 K in a game is a Japan Series record.
Several people in the crowd are crying including a few grown men, in recognition of the heroic effort on the way out the door.
Several people in the crowd are crying including a few grown men, in recognition of the heroic effort on the way out the door.
Why is it stupid? If they assume he's gone after this year, and he's still pitching great, he probably can handle this workload. And they probably don't care about burning him out because, well, he's never pitching for them again.
You worry about this stuff when (a) he's losing his effectiveness, and/or (b) you're in the middle of a season and don't want to burn him out, and/or (c) you've got a real investment in him and worry about the long term damage you're doing to him.
Clearly (b) and (c) are not issues right now. And if (a) isn't happening, it's not dumb to keep him out there.
I mean, that would all be true if it was MLB, but if Yamamoto signs a $200M contract, Orix gets a $32M check from the signing team, so it's in their interests to make sure he ends up this week fully healthy too.
Sorry if I was too vague. I'm not saying the team was necessarily stupid for sending him back out there, and of course your math is correct that at least on paper, they don't care what happens to him from here. That said they've got a very capable bullpen, and on 126 pitches and a 4 run lead, there was absolutely no need for him to go back out. The situation was stupid -- he was out there essentially just for storyline reasons. And in fairness, maybe in some part to save said bullpen for Game 7 tomorrow.
Maybe I'm overreacting. I just really didn't want him to get hurt.
Storyline reasons are still important in sports. Many fans, myself included, like watching individual great performances even if they're not the absolute optimal way to win games.
The level of vitriol about Stroman on Twitter feels awfully dogwhistly. Wouldn't be opposed to adding him if the price is right. Still a solid pitcher.
But also wouldn't overextend for him or anything, but Breslow should have a really good idea of his value.
But also wouldn't overextend for him or anything, but Breslow should have a really good idea of his value.
I was all in on Stroman the last time but he really does seem like a bad character fit. I don’t want to get into it, but he publicly defended Kyrie’s very questionable tweets about who controls the media and [edit: liked a tweet that] used a slur on a Mets beat reporter. In this environment, and maybe particularly now in light of global events, he seems like a major distraction.
Obviously Breslow was part of a Cubs front office that signed him, so it might not be beyond the pale. But I imagine he stays in Chicago another 2-3 years.
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I don't really want to get into it either. But there's more nuance to the Kyrie situation & he liked a Tweet which used the slur, which isn't really one that is commonly used anymore - but regardless is different than affirmatively calling someone that slur, even if it's not a good choice whatsoever.
But yeah, I'm just going to leave it up to Breslow. He knows both the man & the market, as well as the pitcher.
Thanks for the clarification, I was going from memory but you’re right - he didn’t use the term himself.
Since we’ve been discussing Breslow’s preference for pitchers who get whiffs in the zone (low Z-contact %), Stroman isn’t one of them. (Though neither is the 2023 version of Shane Bieber, who I’ve been touting.)
If Breslow is into the pitch shaping stuff, I'd bet his targets will be pitchers he thinks can take a step forward with change to the shape of some pitch. Slightly changing the spin axis of his curveball to better mirror the spin on his fastball, or flattening a slider out into a sweeper, or whatever.
So even if the goal is whiffs in the zone, he might be looking for guys he thinks he can get there over guys with that track record.
Like I suspect many on here, I probably get a little overexcited about the idea that your guy is a step ahead of the competition. But this might be one good way to get bargains, like the Astros did before anyone else understood spin rates, or the Dodgers did with Evan Phillips.
So even if the goal is whiffs in the zone, he might be looking for guys he thinks he can get there over guys with that track record.
Like I suspect many on here, I probably get a little overexcited about the idea that your guy is a step ahead of the competition. But this might be one good way to get bargains, like the Astros did before anyone else understood spin rates, or the Dodgers did with Evan Phillips.
Andrew Heaney took his $13m player option.
View: https://twitter.com/TXRangersPR/status/1720929151119401023
View: https://twitter.com/TXRangersPR/status/1720929151119401023
Shoulder surgery for Kershaw, will miss start of season.
View: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1720503456148947060
View: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1720503456148947060
It depends a lot on when they are out there. If they go down early or midseason and dominate the rest of the way, that's probably better than a less dominant innings eater, at least for a team with decent depth. But if they go down towards the end of the season then that's pretty clearly worse (exhibit A: the '23 Dodgers).
Of course you don't get to pick and choose when your starters get injured, and IL time in one year is highly correlated with IL time the next year.
For these reasons I'd err toward the side of innings eaters, but no so much so that they tip into unexciting performance. I hope that they have some more sophisticated ways to project likelihood of injury other than just "health so far," as after all there are plenty of consistently healthy pitchers who suddenly fall apart (exhibit B: Chris Sale). Assuming they do, I'd like them to figure out who among the top performers (when adjusting for impact of stadium, defense to project fit for this team) is most likely to be durable, and target those guys as the priority.
Sox seemed to get killed in the 4th-6th innings this year, were pretty darn good after that. So they need to figure that out, probably through a combination of getting a few starters and having more of those middle innings handled by guys like Houck, Whitlock, etc.
He does have that 3-year player option, but I guess the assumption is he's going to decline it. I'm sure he can get better than 3/18 this winter.
Padres also turned down their 2/$32m on Nick Martinez which would give him a 2/$16m player option.
View: https://twitter.com/973TheFanSD/status/1721009283574419814
View: https://twitter.com/973TheFanSD/status/1721009283574419814
That article in there says Wacha, Martinez & Lugo are an expected to decline their player options.
They say Martinez is 1/$8m which I guess is technically right if he doesn't have to exercise both options at the same time.
https://www.mlb.com/news/seth-lugo-michael-wacha-nick-martinez-make-contract-option-decisions?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
They say Martinez is 1/$8m which I guess is technically right if he doesn't have to exercise both options at the same time.