Red Sox weren't particularly interested in Nola (or Nolan):
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What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
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I am paywalled from reading the whole article, but 'interested' and 'involved' is an important difference here. Everyone knew Nola badly wanted to go back to PHI so not much reason to get involved in that case unless you planned to completely blow away their eventual offer (and good luck doing that with Dombrowski in charge of PHI).
Definitely a world of difference between "interested" and "involved". I'd go a step further in speculating that there very well may have been interest from the Red Sox side but with how quickly Nola re-signed, they may not have had a whole lot of chance to get involved anyway. We know Nola had a couple offers other than the Phillies. For all we know, maybe those offers were sought specifically by Nola and his agent because they would be the most likely to push the Phillies (particularly the Braves), and they didn't bother talking to anyone else.
I mean, the same structural impediments were in place for teams like the Braves & Dodgers and they were said to have made competitive offers on Nola, while the reporting has always been that the Red Sox were more interested in Montgomery than Nola.
How much is real & how much is spin is unknowable, but I think if they were interested enough they would have turned their interest into an involvement.
What does it mean to be “not meaningfully involved in bidding” for a player? I think it’s a stretch to say that they weren’t interested, but from that phrase it’s difficult to tell if they made an offer. If they didn’t make an offer, there could be multiple reasons why not (they weren’t interested, Nola wasn’t interested, were interested but it all happened too fast, etc etc.)
With the speed at which he signed, it seems most likely that he had a particular number in mind and heavily prioritized going back to Philly at that #.
With the speed at which he signed, it seems most likely that he had a particular number in mind and heavily prioritized going back to Philly at that #.
Here's a bit of a scouting report on Shota Imanaga.
View: https://twitter.com/BBisntBoring/status/1728083221357666671
View: https://twitter.com/BBisntBoring/status/1728083221357666671
Someone on Twitter mentioned Cuban Yariel Rodriguez as a possible Red Sox target. I haven’t seen him mentioned as a possible target on most sites Including here. He had a pretty good year in Japan last year and seems to have excellent stuff. He’s only 26 and would be just money.
There's been a handful of posts about him in the "Offseason Rumors" thread starting here:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/offseason-rumors.40691/post-5855006
...and here's @JM3 's post about him from November 2nd in the Relief Pitching thread (since Rodriguez was most effective in Japan as a reliever):
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/what-does-red-sox-relief-pitching-look-like-in-2024.40161/post-5819218
I agree though he looks like an intriguing target and would only cost money as you say. After being a reliever in 2022 and not pitching in 2023 though, I don't see him being able to carry a full starter's workload. Would like to see him out of the pen at least in 2024.
I like this guy and this is more of a critique of his Yamamoto video which is also worth a watch, but isn’t his argument in each that we’d expect an NPB pitcher’s K% to drop in the MLB at odds with like… every high profile NPB pitcher that’s made the transition?
Darvish, Maeda, Ohtani, Tanaka, Senga have each increased their K% at the MLB level.
MLBTrade Rumors rounded up some scouting info on Uwasawa. FB velo is 90.8 average, but that's not everything I suppose.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/naoyuki-uwasama-to-be-posted-for-mlb-teams-this-winter.html
Also, what's up with that surname? It's not often I hear one I've never heard before, after living there a bit and decades of consuming Japanese media. Also if you translate from Japanese Wikipedia it turns into Uezawa, which sounds a lot more familiar. Is this another one of those "baseball translations"? Probably a question for TokyoSox.
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Yeah...he doesn't seem like a great option for a team like the Red Sox. I've seen talk of him getting like 2/$14m.
Thought it was interesting that he's already been working with Driveline:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwYAw3ssFRg/
The link is to him working on a splitter last off season.
Apart from their departure airport, I don't know if they have much in common. Okajima was striking out guys at 9.2 k/9 for twelve years in Japan, and 10.4 in his last season before arriving in the US. Uwasawa is at 7.3 average and 6.6 in his last season.
McAdam says the Sox want to get a starter via trade before signing one, but have not expressed much interest in Dylan Cease. On the FA front, they did express interest in Blake Snell at the GM meetings.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-have-shown-interest-in-cy-young-winner-but-not-one-top-trade-option.html
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/11/red-sox-have-shown-interest-in-cy-young-winner-but-not-one-top-trade-option.html
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The article also says Snell will probably stay on the West Coast.
This seems like an illogical & dumb plan...
... things happen when they happen. But we shall see what happens.
The article also says Snell will probably stay on the West Coast.
I think you explore both things simultaneously. If Yamamoto wants to sign with us tomorrow, I'm not waiting until after we complete a trade to lock him up.
It could certainly work out that a trade happens before a FA signing, but not sure why it would matter. I think it's probably just a sloppy game of telephone.
The reasoning might be that once one or two of the top FAs come off the board more teams might then be competing for the top few pitchers that may be available via trade. He might also be thinking that one piece already in place might show a potential FA that the team is working toward being a contender again.
Yeah, “I want to play in X” means “I will go to the highest bidder and I guess it would be nice if it was X.”
I think so. I don't read it as any sort of ironclad rule though. Trading for an impact starter helps to indicate we're in a different spot, gets some momentum, etc. That's hard to qualify but it seems like it'd have to be a factor.
Honestly probably just means they want to trade Verdugo quickly before it's clear there's no room for him in the outfield. Let's see Verdugo to Cleveland for Bieber, or to Miami for Rogers + Garcia.
Meanwhile Seattle is probably the only major league team that doesn't need starting pitching.
Not picking on you but this really isn't true in recent years. Judge, Cole, Nola, even Sonny Gray today I bet could have gotten more money if he genuinely didn't care where he ended up and just went to the highest bidder.
Probably just a mix up on Erris Isrand.
No I guess if I didn't know who he was, my guesses in order would be Uesawa, Uezawa, Kamisawa, Kamizawa, and then Uwasawa. 上 is occasionally read uwa, eg in, 上回る, uwamawaru. But it doesn't immediately spring to mind. I wrote the kanji for my Japanese colleague and her first guess was Kamisawa. The she looked up the surname (the kanji, not the specific pronunciation) and found it's pretty rare: only 2400 people in the country have it, making it the 4,566th most common surname. kanji tte muzukashii desune!
/digression
I'm certainly not comparing them as Japanese pitchers, rather that I remembered one guy learning a new pitch the year before coming here while another is rumored to have learned the same pitch. Especially for guys without huge velo, having a credible split would seem to be an encouraging thing. 7ish k/9, not so much though.
I think it's a way of saying they'd rather spend prospects and/or move guys that aren't fits on the roster for pitching before committing money anywhere. I would bet they're seeing what the interest is in Verdugo, the farm, or guys like Dalbec who are blocked or out of time and whether that could help the pitching depth.
So desu ne! I only learned about 50 or so, which in turn suggests I wasn't too handy with any kanji, although I've rekindled my interest in sumo recently and can pick out a few. Victory to First Mountain Root!
Yeah, that's more my point. I'm sure lots of guys try to up their splitter but it's a rare guy like Oki who can get to a level of effectiveness to become a
Article in Japanese says that Yamamoto will be bringing a "Team Yoshinobu" entourage with him when he makes the move next year: a manager, a personal trainer, and a personal chef. Not too much of substance in there but thought folks mind find it interesting. I wonder if various teams' willingness to move the whole crew over for him will play into negotiations or the decision process at all. Besides Ohtani having Ippei, I don't know what these entourages are usually like, if they exist at all. Or how much a team will shell out for that or if it's down to the player to pay them? No idea.
The article mentions that the chef has helped him put on about 12 pounds in the last two years, cooks all his meals etc.
Also quotes YY as saying that he hasn't really narrowed down the field at all yet, will be doing online meetings with teams, and just wants to take his time and consider it all carefully.
The article mentions that the chef has helped him put on about 12 pounds in the last two years, cooks all his meals etc.
Also quotes YY as saying that he hasn't really narrowed down the field at all yet, will be doing online meetings with teams, and just wants to take his time and consider it all carefully.
About the trade-then-sign thing: Boston in particular may be an easier sell to FA starters if you can make the case that the team really is just one SP away from being a credible contender.
"We have a good offense, a really deep bullpen, are improving our team defense markedly with big steps forward anticipated at SS, 2B, and CF, and have already reinforced our rotation by trading for [Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease or Tyler Glasnow or whichever good starting pitcher]. We're really just an ace away from being a legitimate playoff contender. And not only that, our core players are mostly young and we have a lot of position player talent in [whomever we didn't just have to trade for the above good starting pitcher] in the high minors who should help keep us in contention for the next decade."
"We have a good offense, a really deep bullpen, are improving our team defense markedly with big steps forward anticipated at SS, 2B, and CF, and have already reinforced our rotation by trading for [Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease or Tyler Glasnow or whichever good starting pitcher]. We're really just an ace away from being a legitimate playoff contender. And not only that, our core players are mostly young and we have a lot of position player talent in [whomever we didn't just have to trade for the above good starting pitcher] in the high minors who should help keep us in contention for the next decade."
I think it's all gravy. From what I've read from the ex-pat teammate articles, YY seems like a lunatic in the best way. Tries to find every edge for mechanics, injury-prevention, deception, etc. Apparently he has these legendary stretching/flexibility routines and throws javelins to perfect his release point. Some quotes from Nick Martinez and other ex-teammates:
Edit: Found this YY flexibility routine video from reddit. I tore every ligament in my body just watching this.
I agree and, with regard to Gray, his comments confirm his position:
“Going into this thing. I wanted to be a Cardinal,” Gray said at his introductory news conference at Busch Stadium. “That started probably a little over a year ago. It’s a place that every time I've come here as a visitor, I've looked at the stadium and I've said, ‘Wow, this place is incredible!’
I looked around the seats and I've seen the fans, and the fans continue to show up and they support this team. And when you talk around the league and talk to different guys who have been all over the place, everybody raves about St. Louis and the Cardinals.
The fans -- how they support you, how the fans are hard on you and how the fans expect you to win and expect greatness -- that’s something as a player and a competitor you want. With where I am in my career, I want to win. Coming into an organization like St. Louis, with the tradition … it's just a baseball town and a baseball city and in a place that I'm thrilled to come and be a part of.”
I think this is mostly it. The Sox haven't really been seen as a contender the past couple of years. If the Sox offer more money, they'll get someone to say yes (it's still a business) but if the numbers are close I can absolutely see someone saying they feel closer to a ring in any number of places outside of Boston.
However, I think it could also be looking at history and seeing where the Sox have had tons of success over the past generation and where some ideas have faltered. Thinking back to the "aces" of the past generation or so, most were acquired via trade. Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Sale all fit that mold, however one wants to categorize Lowe and Porcello (not aces, but very good and important pitchers), they were both acquired via trade as well. Same goes with Eovaldi.
The FA route has been more hit and miss. I'd say Price was worth the deal (because of the 2018 post season) but I can understand the argument of saying that contract didn't work out. Matsuzaka is probably in the middle. Lackey certainly worked out, but I don't think of him as a huge money free agent signing. Any number of big time FA signings (not just for the Red Sox but baseball in general) have been much greater hampers on a payroll than anything else.
I also think it could be much more pragmatic than anything thinking of the baseball calendar. I believe Yamamoto has said he plans to sign after the winter meetings; Boras clients (Montgomery and Snell) have been going longer and longer into the off season, so if the Red Sox don't want to be left waiting around to let Boras pit their desperation against other desperate teams, it makes sense to have one spot filled first.
*Of course, it could also be that Breslow et al really don't think as much of the farm system as Fangraphs or similar and fall more in line with the MLB thinking of it being a fine but not great system. So they might prefer to trade off prospects as they seem some of them as less valuable than money. Clearly I have no knowledge on that, but simply not protecting Drohan at least implies that there could be some disconnect between how the previous FO viewed a large number of prospects and how the current one does - it could of course also be a one off...
That's not really true for Judge or Cole.
One has to look beyond the total dollars to the structure and years - the Judge offer from SD was $400 mil, but over 12 years...that's not really a better offer economically than what he took (9/$360). $40 mil a year for 9 is very likely better than $33 mil for 12 though people can differ on their guess for late-career Judge salary. We don't really know details of the SD offer so maybe it looks better in terms of front-loaded money, bonus, etc. but on the face of reported offers Judge took the most valuable financial offer - highest AAV and highest NPV (though not highest total value)
Cole similarly was, according to published reports (which I acknowledge COULD be wrong, but are the best we have) offered $300 mil over eight years by Dodgers ($37.5 mil) but with significant deferrals and less than $300 mil by Angels. Yankess paid him 9/$324 mil which is $36 mil with no deferrals. Again, there's a small degree of possibility that wasn't the best economic offer but very much more reason to believe he, like Judge, took the best financial offer....highest real AAV, most years, highest NPV.
I agree with you players care where they go, and it is also true that many times the money wins out AND that often the place they want to go has to match or come close to matching the money to get the guy.
No, it's true in both of those cases. SD said they were willing to offer more than they already had if Judge was genuinely interested in going there (they jumped in last minute and he never seriously considered them) and the Dodgers dropped out on Cole because it became clear to them that NYY wasn't dropping out and Cole preferred NY.
I think the point is that without knowing more about the structure of the deals, it’s difficult to know that the player chose less - although these stories always get cranked out because they make the player and team look good.
FWIW the SD offer to Judge was supposedly 12/415, not 400, so $55M more guaranteed and those final three seasons were his age 40-42 seasons.
"Page Odle of PSI Sports Management says the offer from San Diego was worth more than $400 million. Two other sources briefed on the matter said it was in the range of $415 million, over a term that would have been at least 12 years."
https://theathletic.com/4289992/2023/03/09/aaron-judge-padres-offer-mlb/
And I don't feel like hunting down the corroboration yet again but SD made it clear at the time that they would even go higher than that if he seriously considered them.
"Page Odle of PSI Sports Management says the offer from San Diego was worth more than $400 million. Two other sources briefed on the matter said it was in the range of $415 million, over a term that would have been at least 12 years."
https://theathletic.com/4289992/2023/03/09/aaron-judge-padres-offer-mlb/
And I don't feel like hunting down the corroboration yet again but SD made it clear at the time that they would even go higher than that if he seriously considered them.
Please cite the supporting quotes for above. I was hoping we could separate out what was reported from pure speculation.
I did already for one and I've posted about this a thousand times here, not hunting down the quotes yet again for you. Maybe you don't remember how these negotiations played out but I do.
Also who gives a shit either way? You agree with my actual point, which is that people need to stop thinking and writing that FAs just go to the highest bidder. I think that is less true now than it's ever been.
It's hard to get a definitive quote on this kind of thing, no one wants to admit they offered more money to a guy who turned them down anyway, but in Cole's case, the Dodgers eventually dropped out, like I said, because the Yankees weren't going to and because Cole strongly preferred the Yankees over the Dodgers. 'Amy' in the below quote is his wife, Brandon Crawford's sister:
"“Amy growing up a die-hard Giants fan, her first sentence was, ‘Boo Dodgers!’,” Cole told NJ.com. “I don’t know if that’s true or not, but it’s a running joke in the family. But signing with the Dodgers wouldn’t have been the most appetizing thing. It’s a tense rivalry all the time between the two clubs, the Dodgers and Giants.”"
https://dodgersway.com/2022/09/02/dodgers-news-gerrit-cole-reveals-free-agency-preferences/
So in Cole's case, I'm not saying that the Dodgers actually offered him more money, I'm saying that if he had been happy to go to the highest bidder, I think they would have kept bidding higher. There were articles after he signed in NY how their front office was devastated and that they had built their whole offseason plan that year around going after him full bore, like they're doing with Ohtani now.
"“Amy growing up a die-hard Giants fan, her first sentence was, ‘Boo Dodgers!’,” Cole told NJ.com. “I don’t know if that’s true or not, but it’s a running joke in the family. But signing with the Dodgers wouldn’t have been the most appetizing thing. It’s a tense rivalry all the time between the two clubs, the Dodgers and Giants.”"
https://dodgersway.com/2022/09/02/dodgers-news-gerrit-cole-reveals-free-agency-preferences/
So in Cole's case, I'm not saying that the Dodgers actually offered him more money, I'm saying that if he had been happy to go to the highest bidder, I think they would have kept bidding higher. There were articles after he signed in NY how their front office was devastated and that they had built their whole offseason plan that year around going after him full bore, like they're doing with Ohtani now.
T
Others now have enough context to make up their own minds about accuracy.
Yeah, that's the article I pulled the numbers from--it also says "at least 12 years" so there's ambiguity about $400 (reported in other places) or $415 and about whether it's 12 or more than 12 years, which would lower the AAV even more. Of course, none of those small uncertainties changes the AAV conclusions I stated or the other points I made about contracts. Or offers any support for your statements about what else teams might have done.
Others now have enough context to make up their own minds about accuracy.
That's my point, and why you shouldn't be saying something is a 'fact' or 'true' because as you seem to now realize--what you claimed was neither, it was just your speculation. Speculation is fine, we all do it, to be clear.
Way to ignore the actual quote I posted as well as the reality of the situation.
Back to my original point...
This is absolutely true for these four guys, if any of them had announced 'I will go to the highest bidder no matter who that is', they would have gotten more. This is true for Ohtani and Yamamoto also, both would end up with more if they genuinely didn't care where they ended up and made that clear. That was my only point here, a pretty obvious one IMO.
Again, though, we really have no idea whether the Dodgers were willing to go higher---if they built their entire offseason plan around him (as you said above) wouldn't you think they made their best offer anyway? That's what I'd do regardless of what I thought the guy's preference might be. There's all sorts of examples across sports of people signing for the money, and if you're that deep in the process it's hard for me to imagine they didn't think he was serious about them (it is not, for example, a situation where Cole simply said he wasn't willing to go to Dodgers and took no meetings with them).
I am sure there's lots I don't know about these negotiations and you seem to think you have omniscience about what every party would have done in every possible scenario. I just don't think that's realistic. I think we never know for sure what is motivating these guys to sign in a place, and there's always a financial part and a non-financial part.
Anyway, you have your way of thinking and doing things....for me, these situations are often pretty murky and we're left to speculate a lot on what did and did not happen and why. Starting with "the highest offer will usually win" is a pretty good percentage bet in my view, and I do not disagree with you that it isn't always the winning bid.