What Should NY Do With David Robertson This Offseason?

[jon abbey]

He's an unrestricted FA who probably will get more than he's worth on the open market. I could see an argument for offering him something like 3/$30, but I also think I'd be OK with offering him the qualifying offer (likely around $15m) and being happy with the decision either way. 
 
Anyway, haven't seen this discussed much anywhere so thought I would broach it and see what people thought...

 

[StuckOnYouk]

If he finishes strong why not just give him 3/45?
 
Keep him and Betances together in the 7th-9th innings for the next 3 years. The Yankees don't have a serious cap, it would be stupid not to IMO.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I could see an argument for offering him something like 3/$30, but I also think I'd be OK with offering him the qualifying offer (likely around $15m) and being happy with the decision either way. 
 

 
I'm good with that.  If he declines the QO, Betances becomes the closer.  A multi-year deal at $15m per would be too much. 

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Sign Uehara for 4 yrs/$80 million. 
 
Seriously, though, as StuckonYouk points out, the Yankees don't have a strict budget, and they've essentially overpaid for all free agent signings for some time now, why draw a line with Robertson, their best bullpen arm?  Unless it's stupid money, which $10-15 million per year isn't, why let him go unless there is someone better available? And even then, bullpen arms are quite risky, as we all know. 

 

[terrynever]

What has been the return on veteran closers who got big contracts? Papelbon and Soriano come to mind. Is the closer's job worth that much when it seems so easily replaceable?
And that's taking nothing away from Robertson's numbers this season, which are startling in terms of Ks to innings pitched.

 

[orphan]

I'm also happy with either offer, but I don't think 3/30 will get it done, especially if statistically he continues to improve from the Dunn HR game. I could see some team offering him 4/40. maybe 4/44.  
 

 
 
Is the closer's job worth that much when it seems so easily replaceable?

 
I don't like it either, but the market dictates the price, and Robertson as a closer is probably worth 10-11 million per year.  

 

[derekson]

I think offering him the QO would be nuts, as he'd be a fool not to take it (even more nuts are those who suggest giving Uehara a QO). The QO this off season will be around $16M, which I believe would be a new record annual salary for a relief pitcher. I believe Mariano's 3/$45M deal @$15M AAV is the current record.

Offer him something like 3/$30 with a 4th year vesting option based on games finished in year 3 and maybe a $2-3M buyout.

 

[jon abbey]

Olney on this today:
 
"David Robertson hasn't had any talks with the Yankees about a long-term deal even though he's months from becoming a free agent, but it may be that the team's strategy with him is fairly cut-and-dried. 
Robertson is a dominant reliever, with 63 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings and just 10 walks in his first season as the Yankees' closer. He's 29 years old. The Yankees could simply give him a qualifying offer of $15 million, which is easier for large-budget teams to do. If Robertson declines, as every other player given a qualifying offer has done, it's possible that he could slide into that dead zone of free agency that swallowed up Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drewlast winter. 

No closer makes more than Jonathan Papelbon's $13 million salary, and in an era when teams have a lower assessment of the value of short relievers, many teams would never consider giving up a first-round pick to sign a closer to a multiyear deal. If some team did so, well, the Yankees would happily accept the compensation draft pick and move on, perhaps with Dellin Betances moving into the closer role. 

If Robertson accepted a qualifying offer, he would become the highest-paid closer in baseball for a year and the Yankees would have a really great reliever on a short-term obligation, and the length of the contract would have value to them because it wouldn't be overextended."

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

What team is going to give Robertson even Papelbon-level money, let alone $15M per year?  Philly's already gone that stupid route and no one seems willing to relieve them now of Pap's contract.  I know NY has handed out gifts to their long-time stars, but Robertson's not really in that category. 
 
Offer him 3/$30 if you're feeling generous, otherwise let him walk.

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

Closers usually pitch around 60 innings or so.  At $15 million that comes to $250,000 per inning which seems a little pricey.  If a starter received the same per inning rate, a $50+ million annual salary would be in order.
 
Yes, the 9th inning is important but runs scored earlier in the game count, too.

 

[rembrat]

 
 
“I thought the calls would come but at this point right now I am going to wait and see how the season plays out,’’ Robertson said before the Yankees’ 5-1 win over the Tigers Wednesday at the Stadium.

 
“This offseason I probably would have gone for a discount, although I wasn’t a closer,’’ said the 29-year-old right-hander, who is making $5.215 million in a walk year

 
“Not at all, it seems the way they do business around here,’’ he said. “I have been to arbitration three times. It’s not like I don’t like playing here, but I have to do what’s best for me.’’

 
I'm actually stoked about this because I like David Robertson and desperately want him to wear another uni.
 
Uh Oh.

 

[Apisith]

They will offer him the QO and he will accept, IMO. Unless they go crazy again and offer him 3/$36m, which they have no reason to.

Their best reliever is Betances. They can pick up other guys to fill the 7th and 8th inning spots if they need to.

 

[rembrat]

It's like you didn't even read the quotes. DRob is very plainly tired of this year-to-year crap and aims to sign a multi year deal in the offseason.

 

[Apisith]

He may not want to sign a one year deal but is any team going to make an offer for him if he turns down the QO? He may not have much of a say, in the end.

 

[rembrat]

No player has yet to accept a QO.

 

[derekson]

If a team actually offers a closer a QO, he will accept it. He'd be an idiot not to, even more so than Drew and Cruz were last off season.
 
$15M is equal to the highest annual salary ever paid to a closer (Rivera's 3/$45M deal is the highest AAV ever for a closer).

 

[gammoseditor]

It's like you didn't even read the quotes. DRob is very plainly tired of this year-to-year crap and aims to sign a multi year deal in the offseason.

It doesn't really matter how he feels. The QO would kill his offseason value.

 

[jon abbey]

I think NY would prefer that he turns down the QO, so that might work out best all around. They have plenty of other holes they need to spend money to fill, I think they'd be fine with taking the pick and moving on. 

 

[AbbyNoho]

Retaining players like Robertson should be the Yankees biggest strength. He's a good player, but he's on the cusp of 'someone will probably offer a bit more than he is worth'. Unless someone goes insane, the Yankees financial might should be spent on guys like this, where the slight overpay isn't even noticeable and if he craters then you're not incapable of dumping him like some teams would be. 
 
Personally, I think that's probably a better use in general of their financial advantage than the massive deals for multiple positions strategy. 
 
I mean, if the Yankees didn't have some huge deals on the books for guys nowhere near worth it then this wouldn't even be a question, they'd certainly just resign Robertson.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Agreed, but doesn't NY usually do that? Other than Cano I can't think of one impact player they've allowed to leave without paying/overpaying. I'm not saying Robertson is as impactful as Cano, but he's a hell of a reliever.
Although maybe this is a trend with NY now, to make the tough decisions and let their own move on now.

 

[rembrat]

Agreed, but doesn't NY usually do that? Other than Cano I can't think of one impact player they've allowed to leave without paying/overpaying. I'm not saying Robertson is as impactful as Cano, but he's a hell of a reliever.
Although maybe this is a trend with NY now, to make the tough decisions and let their own move on now.

 
I got this one for you jon. RUSSELL MARTIN!

 

[EvilEmpire]

 
I got this one for you jon. RUSSELL MARTIN!

I laughed.

 

[jon abbey]

I mean, if the Yankees didn't have some huge deals on the books for guys nowhere near worth it then this wouldn't even be a question, they'd certainly just resign Robertson.

 
Probably true, but they do, so it's not really applicable. The question isn't "What should they do with this kind of situation in general?", it's "What should they do with Robertson given their other needs and salary commitments and potential replacements?". 
 
They locked up Gardner a year before he was going to hit the market, clearly they didn't want to do the same thing with Robertson. They have other potential impact bullpen arms, spending big money on a closer is usually not a great move as you all are well aware. 

 

[jon abbey]

There is a great piece out there waiting to be written by someone about how NY has seemingly methodically dismantled the 2012 AL East winning team that went 95-67, beat Baltimore in the ALDS and then got obliterated by Detroit in the ALCS. The turnover from that team to now has been crazy, NY has let almost every one of their own players go and replaced them with FAs who have tons of question marks of their own. Maybe Gardner got saved because he missed almost the entire 2012 season hurt, but the purge of that team has been amazing to watch:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2012.shtml

 

[TomRicardo]

There is a great piece out there waiting to be written by someone about how NY has seemingly methodically dismantled the 2012 AL East winning team that went 95-67, beat Baltimore in the ALDS and then got obliterated by Detroit in the ALCS. The turnover from that team to now has been crazy, NY has let almost every one of their own players go and replaced them with FAs who have tons of question marks of their own. Maybe Gardner got saved because he missed almost the entire 2012 season hurt, but the purge of that team has been amazing to watch:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2012.shtml

 
So like you get to start next year with Sabathia, ARod, Teixeira and maybe Kuroda, Gardner, and Robinson...
 
Dreams really do come true

 

[mt8thsw9th]

That would be quite the dream for some.
 

 

[Sox and Rocks]

The Yankees should have learned their lesson about long term contracts and try to avoid them whenever possible while overpaying in the short term, if necessary (The Sox obviously had a lot of success with this in the 12-13 offseason and still are having success with the plan, not on the field this year, but with payroll flexibility).  This mean extending the QO to Robertson would be a no-brainer because they can easily live with either result: he takes it and they overpay for one year (but only one year!) of a "proven" closer (I use this term loosely) or they get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.  
 
From a risk management standpoint, one year of Robertson at $15 million is better than, for instance, signing him, or a similar player, to a 4 yr/$35-40 million contract.  The first deal has no chance at having much of a negative impact.  The latter does, as we have seen time and time again with Yankee and other long term contracts.  
 
Small market teams have to take chances with longer contracts because of strict yearly payrolls.  Teams like the Yankees (and the Sox, too) shouldn't if they don't have to, and with Robertson they don't.  
 
The other financial advantage the MFY have here is they can overpay for a closer.  Giving Robertson $15 million represents about 7% of their budget.  If, for example, a team like my Rockies signed Robertson for the same price, they would be spending about 15% of their budget on a closer, which would be foolish to the extreme.  

 

[mt8thsw9th]

The other financial advantage the MFY have here is they can overpay for a closer.  Giving Roberts $15 million represents about 7% of their budget.  If, for example, a team like my Rockies signed Roberts for the same price, they would be spending about 15% of their budget on a closer, which would be foolish to the extreme.  

Make it happen, Cashman!

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Make it happen, Cashman!

Nice catch.  My bad.  
 
Maybe we should start a thread on what MFY should offer Roberts?

 

[Sox and Rocks]

The Yankees should have learned their lesson about long term contracts and try to avoid them whenever possible while overpaying in the short term, if necessary (The Sox obviously had a lot of success with this in the 12-13 offseason and still are having success with the plan, not on the field this year, but with payroll flexibility).  This mean extending the QO to Robertson would be a no-brainer because they can easily live with either result: he takes it and they overpay for one year (but only one year!) of a "proven" closer (I use this term loosely) or they get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.  
 
From a risk management standpoint, one year of Robertson at $15 million is better than, for instance, signing him, or a similar player, to a 4 yr/$35-40 million contract.  The first deal has no chance at having much of a negative impact.  The latter does, as we have seen time and time again with Yankee and other long term contracts.  
 
Small market teams have to take chances with longer contracts because of strict yearly payrolls.  Teams like the Yankees (and the Sox, too) shouldn't if they don't have to, and with Robertson they don't.  
 
The other financial advantage the MFY have here is they can overpay for a closer.  Giving Roberts $15 million represents about 7% of their budget.  If, for example, a team like my Rockies signed Roberts for the same price, they would be spending about 15% of their budget on a closer, which would be foolish to the extreme.  

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

The Yankees should have learned their lesson about long term contracts and try to avoid them whenever possible while overpaying in the short term, if necessary (The Sox obviously had a lot of success with this in the 12-13 offseason and still are having success with the plan, not on the field this year, but with payroll flexibility).  This mean extending the QO to Robertson would be a no-brainer because they can easily live with either result: he takes it and they overpay for one year (but only one year!) of a "proven" closer (I use this term loosely) or they get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.  
 
From a risk management standpoint, one year of Robertson at $15 million is better than, for instance, signing him, or a similar player, to a 4 yr/$35-40 million contract.  The first deal has no chance at having much of a negative impact.  The latter does, as we have seen time and time again with Yankee and other long term contracts.  
 
Small market teams have to take chances with longer contracts because of strict yearly payrolls.  Teams like the Yankees (and the Sox, too) shouldn't if they don't have to, and with Robertson they don't.  
 
The other financial advantage the MFY have here is they can overpay for a closer.  Giving Roberts $15 million represents about 7% of their budget.  If, for example, a team like my Rockies signed Roberts for the same price, they would be spending about 15% of their budget on a closer, which would be foolish to the extreme.

The only benefit I see from the $15M scenario is if he has a bad year. If he has a another good year they will want to keep him which means the Yankees will be in the same situation next year. If they keep giving him QOs the cost goes to 2/30, 3/45 and so on.

I agree that long-term contracts are killing the Yankees but a 3-4 year deal with a 29-year old closer is not in the same category as some of the other deals they have done, such as with C.C, Ellsbury and, of course, A-ROD.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Wait how are long term contracts killing the Yankees?  Did it stop them from handing out another half a billion in contracts last winter?  Everyone is assuming they'll sign at least one of Lester, Scherzer and Shields, all of whom will get 9 figure deals (or maybe Shields only gets a high 8 figure deal).  There's no way in hell signing Robertson to a 3 or 4 year deal would kill them.  Let's say they give him something like 4/48.  Alternatively they let him walk and sign another reliever to set up for Betances at 5m or 6m per year.  That extra 6m or 7m is going to matter to them?

 

[TomRicardo]

Wait how are long term contracts killing the Yankees?  Did it stop them from handing out another half a billion in contracts last winter?  Everyone is assuming they'll sign at least one of Lester, Scherzer and Shields, all of whom will get 9 figure deals (or maybe Shields only gets a high 8 figure deal).  There's no way in hell signing Robertson to a 3 or 4 year deal would kill them.  Let's say they give him something like 4/48.  Alternatively they let him walk and sign another reliever to set up for Betances at 5m or 6m per year.  That extra 6m or 7m is going to matter to them?

 
Their team is pretty much awful right now.  You can say injuries but really they have an old team where they have players signed for every spot but SS.  I guess they can add a starter but that isn't going to make the team any younger or give them any more depth.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, they can either take the payroll to the $250-270M range (which I won't be totally surprised by) and still have a good chance of being mediocre, or they can not do that and have a good chance of being bad. They do seem to end up with a lot of contributors from the farm system who aren't considered real prospects until they start contributing (Shane Greene is the latest), but they're still in deep deep trouble pretty much no matter what they do.
 
I'm expecting them to go the former route, quite possibly starting with Rusney Castillo this week. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
Their team is pretty much awful right now.  You can say injuries but really they have an old team where they have players signed for every spot but SS.  I guess they can add a starter but that isn't going to make the team any younger or give them any more depth.

I don't disagree with this but signing Robertson won't make a difference. They'll still be old and have most spots filled, and they can still add a starter or a 10m dollar 4th OF if they want, or anything else. Paying Robertson isn't going to limit this team in any way.

 

[jon abbey]

Paying Robertson isn't going to limit this team in any way.

 
You could say the same thing about Headley or McCarthy or Drew or Castillo, and those salaries are going to add up fast. Arguably all of those guys are better investments than a $12M per year relief pitcher, who quite possibly can adequately be replaced from within. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
You could say the same thing about Headley or McCarthy or Drew or Castillo, and those salaries are going to add up fast. Arguably all of those guys are better investments than a $12M per year relief pitcher, who quite possibly can adequately be replaced from within. 

First, Robertson is better at his job than any of those guys are at theirs. Second, they actually need a closer. If they don't keep him they'll have to sign someone else for the pen. Sure they could use Drew but they don't need any of the other guys to fill an opening.

 

[EvilEmpire]

First, Robertson is better at his job than any of those guys are at theirs. Second, they actually need a closer. If they don't keep him they'll have to sign someone else for the pen. Sure they could use Drew but they don't need any of the other guys to fill an opening.

Betances is better than Robertson, so they have a closer if he moves on. They also have some decent bullpen arms down in the minors. Offensive production is more of a concern than the bullpen.

 

[AbbyNoho]

What I was trying to say before is that Robertson at $12M is an overpay, but it's still a better investment than the mega-contracts. It's silly if they use their financial might only for megacontracts and not for middling contracts which would be a better investment. The Yankees should always be okay with overpaying a guy like Robertson by a relatively small amount. If they do end up needing to exercise financial restraint it shouldn't be for these type of guys, it should be for the massive deals that add up and affect them for the better part of a decade. 

 

[jon abbey]

Pretty much whatever they do or don't do is bandaids on a cancer patient (maybe gold-plated bandaids). I really don't think they have a chance of genuinely turning things around unless the Steinbrenners sell and the new owners clean house and rethink everything. 

 

[jon abbey]

5 more Ks in 2 IP for Jacob Lindgren tonight in AA, hilariously raising his K/9 a bit from the 18.36 where it was coming in. Maybe he can get a closing audition next year if Robertson turns down the QO (I agree with rem that he will), ideally Betances stays as the multiinning setup guy. 

http://mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=605338&position=P
 
(We are talking about him in the minors thread, but for those who don't know, Lindgren was NY's top pick this past June, a lefty college reliever who is at his fourth level in two months since signing. Jim Callis said after the draft that he had the potential to be the first player from the 2014 class in the bigs, although I doubt he thought it would be as a closer right away, but he has dominated every level so far. ) 

 

[jon abbey]

Also, from the other end of the spectrum, it's at least worth noting NY has a 2015 club option on the remnants of Andrew Bailey, Cot's doesn't say for how much. 

 

[Sox and Rocks]

What I was trying to say before is that Robertson at $12M is an overpay, but it's still a better investment than the mega-contracts. It's silly if they use their financial might only for megacontracts and not for middling contracts which would be a better investment. The Yankees should always be okay with overpaying a guy like Robertson by a relatively small amount. If they do end up needing to exercise financial restraint it shouldn't be for these type of guys, it should be for the massive deals that add up and affect them for the better part of a decade. 

This is my thought process, too, but you articulated it better.  Again, I keep coming back to the fact that if they offer him the QO, which is what this thread is about (what should they do with Robertson this offseason), they can live with either result: collect a draft pick when he signs elsewhere, or overpay for one year, but only one year, of a solid bullpen arm, and given the MFY's massive payroll, their overpay would be less than another team's.  

 

[jon abbey]

Also since they have almost no payroll coming off after 2015 as of now, any quality player they can get on a one year deal will help their flexibility next offseason. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
I see your point, but don't they just run into the same issue again after 2015, only with a higher QO price tag? It's not like he's an older vet that you think "hey, if we can get one more good year out of him while the kids mature, great, next year he can walk". Betances is having a great year, but it's one year and he does not have a great track record of health or dominance. I think the Yankees would be better off signing Robertson to something resembling a reasonable deal for 3-4 years. 

I'm not so sure a reasonable contract is possible with Robertson.  Detroit, even with giving up their 1st round pick, should be figured to be very aggressive on Robertson should he get to free agency.  If and when Robertson turns down the QO he'll hit the market and the Yankees will have to pay at least market value for him if not more.

 

[jon abbey]

I think it's the way to go because they don't want to sign him to a market rate (seemingly), they do want the draft pick (of course), and they don't think he'll accept it (but they could live with it if he did). 

 

[glennhoffmania]

Betances is better than Robertson, so they have a closer if he moves on. They also have some decent bullpen arms down in the minors. Offensive production is more of a concern than the bullpen.

 
True, but they need more than one good arm, and I doubt they'll rely solely on Betances and some prospects who have never pitched in the majors.  It really all depends on whether they would consider the JA approach- realize they won't be good for a year or two and plan for 2017.  If they think they can win a title next year, I don't see how they can easily replace Robertson.
 

What I was trying to say before is that Robertson at $12M is an overpay, but it's still a better investment than the mega-contracts. It's silly if they use their financial might only for megacontracts and not for middling contracts which would be a better investment. The Yankees should always be okay with overpaying a guy like Robertson by a relatively small amount. If they do end up needing to exercise financial restraint it shouldn't be for these type of guys, it should be for the massive deals that add up and affect them for the better part of a decade. 

 
Exactly.  They have no problem giving Beltran 3/45 but paying Robertson 12m is where they draw the line?  I really doubt it.  We're talking about paying him about half of what they'll be paying Ellsbury, Teixeira, ARod, Sabathia, and Tanaka for years.  The difference is that Robertson may actually earn his salary.  He's been worth close to or more than two wins for the last four years.

 

[jon abbey]

 
True, but they need more than one good arm, and I doubt they'll rely solely on Betances and some prospects who have never pitched in the majors.  

 
To be fair, this is exactly what they did this year, Robertson and some prospects who have never pitched in the majors (specifically Betances). 

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
To be fair, this is exactly what they did this year, Robertson and some prospects who have never pitched in the majors (specifically Betances). 

 
True, but Robertson was far more established than Betances is now.  And for what it's worth, NY ranks 22nd in bullpen ERA this season.

 

[jon abbey]

 
And for what it's worth, NY ranks 22nd in bullpen ERA this season.

 
I don't think it's worth that much actually, they have a very good record in close games (I believe the best record in baseball in games decided by 2 runs or less*, hence their outperformance of their Pythagorean).
 
We don't know if guys like Jose Ramirez and Jacob Lindgren and Mark Montgomery are ready to step in next year like Betances did this year, but I do know that if NY tries to fill all of their holes with semi-pricy FAs this offseason, they're going to be closing in on a $300M payroll very fast (and still not assured of anything better than a competent, mediocre team.)
 
*I found confirmation for this, they are 40-27 now in games decided by 2 runs or less, best in baseball. Admittedly that argues for trying to keep Robertson, I guess, although I'm not personally arguing against that, just that I doubt that NY really wants to.