What Should NY Do With David Robertson This Offseason?

[terrynever]

That bullpen ERA is inflated by some of the blowout games they had earlier in the season. That impacts pythag, too.
 
To beat these Yankees, opponents just need to score four runs or more. Yanks have scored 3 or less runs an amazing 58 times this season in 122 games.

 

[TheYaz67]

Well, apparently today Joel Sherman's answer in the NY Post to the thread title is:  "Offer him $15.3 million qualifying offer" for just one year (rather than say $30M for three years)....

 

[jon abbey]

I really never doubted they would offer him the QO, they certainly could use the pick. The big question is whether he will take it, which no one has yet under the current system. I lean towards yes, same as Sherman. Here is the referenced column:

http://nypost.com/2014/10/09/why-david-robertson-likely-will-remain-a-yankee-in-2015/

 

[Doctor G]

Suggest that he wear a bit baggier uniform pants. With the high socks he bears an unnerving resemblance to Rudolf Nureyev.

 

[derekson]

I still think offering a closer a $15M+ QO is insanity unless MAYBE it's Kimbrel. Robertson is one hell of a relief pitcher, but he's still just a relief pitcher. If you can sign him for 3/30, offering 50%+ of that for ONE YEAR is dumb.

 

[TomRicardo]

I still think offering a closer a $15M+ QO is insanity unless MAYBE it's Kimbrel. Robertson is one hell of a relief pitcher, but he's still just a relief pitcher. If you can sign him for 3/30, offering 50%+ of that for ONE YEAR is dumb.

 
Why do you think you can sign him for 30/3 especially when Koji got 18/2 as a 40 year old?
 
Edit- It is Sherman's assumption ... apology.  I think he under values Robertson there.  Robertson has consistently had ridiculous numbers out of the pen.  Someone will see him as the solution to the 9th and pay.

 

[jon abbey]

FWIW, the crowdsourced guess on Robertson at Fangraphs a few days ago was also 3/30.
 
I agree that there's a good chance that the Royals' success will help guys like Robertson and Andrew Miller bigger deals than many people expect. 

 

[derekson]

Honestly I didn't get that number from Sherman or Fangraphs or anything, it was just off the top of my head as an expectation. 
 
I don't think the market for closers will be anything crazy because I don't think there are too many teams in the market for a closer at FA price. It's probably the Yankees and maybe the Tigers right now, and either one could decide to go with an option already under contract if the bidding goes out of their comfort zone. What other team has the money to pay $10M+ per year for a closer as well as a need? Uehara's deal probably takes the Sox out of this market unless they can get Miller at a price below "closer money". And then factor in the fact that the Royals will likely be shopping one of Davis or Holland, as their payroll doesn't really support paying two guys closer money.
 
You can say the Royals are a lesson on the value of shutdown relievers, but you can also look at it as a lesson in developing your own relief arms from marginal starting prospects with big fastballs, which are a commodity most teams have at least a few of. I don't see this as causing an explosion in the market value of closers at all. Betances is another example of a bullpen conversion resulting in a shutdown reliever, as is Andrew Miller himself.

 

[jon abbey]

https://twitter.com/JackCurryYES/status/528274325825396736

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jack Curry ‏@JackCurryYES 1m1 minute ago
Yankees are expected to extend David Robertson a qualifying offer of $15.3M on Monday, a source said. They are hopeful of retaining him.
 

 

[TheYaz67]

I have a feeling that if he turns it down, its going to be tricky to for him and his agent find the right deep pocketed team who both needs a closer at $10M+ per year and is okay with giving up a pick for Robertson, who was good last year, but by no means "dominant".....

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, no one has accepted a QO yet in two years under the current system, but Robertson may be the first. If he doesn't, he may end up back in NY on a longer deal anyway after he tests the market. We'll know next Monday or Tuesday whether he accepts it or not.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 3m3 minutes ago
Yankees extend qualifying offer to David Robertson -- one year, $15.3 million. @FOXSports
 

 

[TomRicardo]

Yeah, no one has accepted a QO yet in two years under the current system, but Robertson may be the first. If he doesn't, he may end up back in NY on a longer deal anyway after he tests the market. We'll know next Monday or Tuesday whether he accepts it or not.

 
Think the Yankees would go into a bidding war with the Cubs?

 

[Wingack]

 
Think the Yankees would go into a bidding war with the Cubs?

 
I could see them just letting him walk. They may extend him a decent offer, but I don't think they will get into a bidding war. I don't think they should at least.

 

[jon abbey]

No, if they wanted him that badly, they wouldn't have let it get this far IMO. 

 

[Cesar Crespo]

What's the biggest annual contract a reliever has ever gotten? Wouldn't this top Mariano's 15m?

 

[jon abbey]

Yes.

 

[derekson]

If he doesn't take that I think he's going to screw himself.
 
Cuddyer was the other guy who struck me as someone who should take the QO without a second thought. Melky and Liriano might belong in that category too.

 

[rembrat]

I think you guys are personally nuts. Robertson is a young arm you slot anywhere in the 7-9 innings and you have yourself a great piece to a bullpen. He will get a good deal some where.

 

[jon abbey]

I think after the Drew and Morales situations last winter, agents are going to at least attempt to do a much better job scouting their player's prospects in the week before they have to decide yes or no, meaning now. So if Robertson turns this down, there will likely be a good reason why. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jack Curry ‏@JackCurryYES 2m2 minutes ago
David Robertson has turned down the Yankees qualifying offer.
 

https://twitter.com/JackCurryYES/status/531917026265415681

 

[RedOctober3829]

@ScottMillerBbl: Yankees have announced David Robertson has declined their qualifying offer. Robertson expected to sign elsewhere & Betances close for NYY

 

[LondonSox]

Whoever signs him I'm going to wager ends up regretting it. Paying a reliever a lot of money for a lot of years and paying a pick to do so is not smart business.
I really thought he'd take the offer

 

[rembrat]

Baseball draft picks are never guaranteed to produce MLB talent though and we need to stop pretending like they do. 
 
Edit: Even 1st rounders.

 

[LondonSox]

Baseball draft picks are never guaranteed to produce MLB talent though and we need to stop pretending like they do. 
 
Edit: Even 1st rounders.

 
They also not nothing. My reasons are primarily because I'm not a fan of giving relievers long expensive contracts.
Clearly this is likely to be needed given he turned down a very good amount for one year. The pick is just a cherry on top.

 

[rembrat]

There are also more close to nothing than something.
 
I understand not wanting to give a Jose Valverde type with clear red flags a long term deal but David Robertson is 29 and has all the right peripherals you look for in a 7-9 inning bullpen arm. He has live stuff, great command, and strikes out a ton of people. He is the kind of guy you sign to a 4 year deal that all the pundits freak out over and in year 3 or 4 you look up and he's turned out to be a steal.

 

[jon abbey]

Yep, and KC showed how far a lockdown back of bullpen can take you this postseason. Ideally you don't want to be paying those guys eight figures, but Robertson is a very good bet to be top-notch for at least the next few years.
 
Anyway, it's always been a tricky situation, hence why I started the thread originally last summer. 

 

[rembrat]

Right. I don't think he gets a multi year deal with an AAV coming close to what the QO was though and I think he knows that and is fine with it. 

 

[soxhop411]

Andrew Marchand ‏@AndrewMarchand 25m25 minutes ago
Source: Robertson's rep has begun negotiations asking for 'Papelbon money' http://es.pn/10WycAE  via @ESPNNewYork
 
 
 

 
Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York reports that free agent closer David Robertson is looking for "Papelbon money" in initial talks with teams.
In other words, he's aiming for the richest contract ever for a reliever. Jonathan Papelbon set the record when he signed a four-year, $50 million contract with the Phillies in 2011. Robertson turns 30 in April and owns a 2.20 ERA over the past four seasons, so he has a strong case for a big contract, but his market could take a hit because he's attached to draft pick compensation. Nov 12

ROTO

 

[jon abbey]

It only takes one team, but not sure who that team would be. DET has said they're not in on Robertson, they just picked up a $7M option on Soria and have Nathan at big money still, plus Rondon should be healthy for spring training.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Right. I don't think he gets a multi year deal with an AAV coming close to what the QO was though and I think he knows that and is fine with it. 

 
True, but he might get a Cuddyer type contract (2 years, $21 million) and might just like that kind of security.

 

[jon abbey]

https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/532640012891074560

 

[rembrat]

Andrew Marchand ‏@AndrewMarchand 25m25 minutes ago
Source: Robertson's rep has begun negotiations asking for 'Papelbon money' http://es.pn/10WycAE  via @ESPNNewYork
 
 
 
ROTO

 
Perhaps I was mistaken about Robertson. 
 
He can want that but there is no way he is getting it. To his credit, Papelbon put together 7 seasons of dominant closer work before his massive deal. 

 

[jon abbey]

Well, there's also a lot more money floating around the sport than a few years ago, and fewer guys hitting free agency (although there are a lot this year). It's an interesting dynamic, tons of money to spend but the majority of big FA contracts end up hurting the team. 

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

Robertson can want Papelbon money, and he can probably get Papelbon money. It is not because he has put together 7 years of being a dominant closer. It is because there is so much money to be spent right now. FA contracts are only getting bigger, and the difference between now and a few years ago when Papelbon signed is a large enough difference that Robertson will get a huge contract. I expect the MFY will be the team to give it to him. He has performed well for them, there isn't much else available in free agency other than Miller, and their bullpen would be thin if he went elsewhere. I think they want to keep Betances in that "bullpen ace" type role and that only happens if they re-sign Robertson to be closer. Given that he turned down the QO and 4-5 years will probably be the term he wants and gets, 4/50 seems about right.

 

[jon abbey]

NY has the draft pick compensation as extra leverage, I don't think they go nearly that high, maybe they would top at 3/30 or 3/36.
 
I also don't quite buy the "there's so much money in the game" theory that every FA will end up with a huge deal (you're not the only one to say that), I think that while there is a ton of money in the game, it's also been shown that most big deals in recent years become millstones almost immediately. Guys like Stanton and Lester will always get paid, I'm not so sure about Robertson. There was plenty of money in the game last winter too, and it didn't help Kendrys Morales or Stephen Drew. 

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

Good point about the draft pick compensation, jon abbey. That may lower the MFY initial offer, but I think they still go a little higher if they need to outbid another team.  I also agree with you that not all free agents will get big contracts, but I think Robertson is good enough to be 1 of the guys that does get his big contract. With the success of the Royals, bullpens could be a premium, so I don't think Robertson ends up like Morales or Drew. While it is true that most (or almost all) FA contracts become millstones, it seems like most teams aren't concerned about the final couple of years (see Martin's contract this year, or even Ellsbury's last year). If a player can make a team better for the near future, then teams are willing to go a year or 2 more than they "should". 

 

[jon abbey]

Right, the real problem is that a sizable percentage of them suck from day 1 (Beltran, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Hamilton) plus there is the added hidden cost of it being harder to bench a guy on a big deal even if he is playing horribly (for instance, AJ Burnett his last couple of years in NY). I agree that Robertson is a good bet to keep performing well, but I also don't really think that there are many teams willing to pay big bucks for a closer currently. Of course, it only takes one (two including Andrew Miller).
 
Also, I argued in one of these threads that NY should try to sign both Robertson and Miller and forget about Headley and McCarthy assuming they will be too pricy for how good they are. I think those two plus Betances could cover a lot of flaws elsewhere, and that would make the bullpen crazy strong going forward. 

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

Signing Miller and Robertson would make things interesting in NY. That would give them a bullpen that would be shutdown from 6th inning on, rivaling what KC did with Herrera, Davis, and Holland. I don't know if that makes them a playoff team, because they won't have the defense that KC had and their offense is aging, but that is why they play a 162 game season. As far as what they will actually do in free agency, let's just say anything is possible.

 

[jon abbey]

Signing Miller and Robertson would make things interesting in NY. That would give them a bullpen that would be shutdown from 6th inning on, rivaling what KC did with Herrera, Davis, and Holland. I don't know if that makes them a playoff team, because they won't have the defense that KC had and their offense is aging, but that is why they play a 162 game season. 

 
I don't think they would be either, but they'd have a better base to build around in 2016/2017 and it would likely be 'cheaper' than paying for likely competence-not-excellence with Headley/McCarthy. .
 
Unfortunately the big issue for NY is still the 2016 payroll, they really don't have too much flexibility until two offseasons from now (after the 2016 season). 

 

[BigMike]

Signing Miller and Robertson would make things interesting in NY. That would give them a bullpen that would be shutdown from 6th inning on, rivaling what KC did with Herrera, Davis, and Holland. I don't know if that makes them a playoff team, because they won't have the defense that KC had and their offense is aging, but that is why they play a 162 game season. As far as what they will actually do in free agency, let's just say anything is possible.

 
Obviously Miller has been very good the past couple of seasons, but I just can't see where he makes sense for a Yankees team that is absolutely swimming with LH relief pitchers. Especially with Lindgren looking like he may be pretty special

 

[jon abbey]

 
Obviously Miller has been very good the past couple of seasons, but I just can't see where he makes sense for a Yankees team that is absolutely swimming with LH relief pitchers. Especially with Lindgren looking like he may be pretty special

 
This is probably right, I just would love to root for Miller.

 

[Wingack]

Andrew Marchand ‏@AndrewMarchand 25m25 minutes ago
Source: Robertson's rep has begun negotiations asking for 'Papelbon money' http://es.pn/10WycAE  via @ESPNNewYork
 
 
 
ROTO

 
Please let him walk Cashman.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

If the Yankees are smart, they would resign Robertson and also pick up Andrew Miller. You put those 3 at the back of a pen and you're playing 6 inning games all year, as cliche as that sounds. That could be a huge help because their rotation has a lot of injury risk, and if they are going to have to use the Shane Greene's of the world for a good portion of the season, they'll need to keep those pitchers from having to turn over the lineup 3x. 

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

 
Please let him walk Cashman.

Yikes. Strike my last post. If you're going to give someone Papelbon money, give it to McCarthy.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

If the Yankees are smart, they would resign Robertson and also pick up Andrew Miller. You put those 3 at the back of a pen and you're playing 6 inning games all year, as cliche as that sounds. That could be a huge help because their rotation has a lot of injury risk, and if they are going to have to use the Shane Greene's of the world for a good portion of the season, they'll need to keep those pitchers from having to turn over the lineup 3x. 

 
1) Robertson
2) Miller
3) ?

 

[JohntheBaptist]

 
1) Robertson
2) Miller
3) ?

Betances.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

 
1) Robertson
2) Miller
3) ?

 
Betances.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Ahhh, yes