I would not trade Bogaerts for Sale. The problem is the money, which is not close to even. I expect their WAR over the next five years to be comparable, but not their costs.
There are numerous reasons why one wouldn't do this trade. I don't think the WAR argument is necessary here. bWAR is built off of RAA, which is an important metric but one of many. If one goes by fWAR, which relies on FIP, Chris Sale comes off more favorably, with a 6.2 WAR this year. Xander and mookie had 4.8 and 4.3 fWAR respectively.Betts was a 6.0 bWAR player in 2015 and is a free agent in 2021. Bogaerts was a 4.6 win player this year and is ours thru 2020. Sale was a 3.3 win player this year, though he peaked at 6.9 bWAR two years ago. He's controllable through 2018. So via the simplest assumptions possible -- continued performance based on 2015 until free agency -- you are talking about trading close to 50 bWAR for somewhere between 10-20 bWAR (using Sale's 2015 and 2013 numbers).
Definitely people are interpreting it correctly as both players.Reading that board I can only assume some read it as Betts OR Bogaerts.
This is intriguing. The Sox are in desperate need of a catcher, as Tyler Flowers has been a bust. SP is their strength. Quintana is probably their best piece to trade right now.No. I'm hoping for Swihart for Quintana.
Just a quibble, but while Bogaerts is exactly what you describe, Mookie is not. He is not a league average hitter, has not been a league average hitter at any level since his low-A debut in 2012, and has given us no reason to assume that he's going to be a league average hitter anytime soon. He was an elite minor league hitter, became a well above average hitter immediately on hitting the majors, has remained one, and at 23 still has room to get better by improving his walk rate.Trading both would be an absolute steal for the White Sox, especially if they play Betts at 2B. They would replace two 60-70 wRC+ hitters with league average hitters who are likely to hit well above average.
You couldn't get that kind of unanimous result here if the question was "Pedro Martinez?"0/260/0
I'm not sure that you could get this unanimous of a poll here this side of asking "Was 2004 a good year?"
Did you look for guys who were similar as a 22 year old but flamed out? Elvis Andrus had a WAR of 4.2. Wil Cordero was 3.0, but that was over only 467 PA as opposed to 654 for Xander (WAR is of course, a counting stat).His 4.6 WAR as a 22 year old shortstop is pretty rocking. Hanley got a 4.9 as a 22 year old shortstop. Manny wasn't a shortstop, but didn't get to 4.6 until his age 25 season. Miggy was slightly ahead at 5.6. Jeter was 3.3. Nomar was tearing up AAA and sipping a cup of coffee. Chipper was taking the year off before a 2.7 as a 23 year old. Yount was still in the infield at 5.0.
The guys I found who outclass him are ARod, Ripken, Tulo.
Curious why you think his defensive abilities will regress? To my eye the improvement was in vastly improved athleticism and a corresponding confidence. Unless he bulks up one would not expect a 22 year old to lose those enhanced skills.Did you look for guys who were similar as a 22 year old but flamed out? Elvis Andrus had a WAR of 4.2. Wil Cordero was 3.0, but that was over only 467 PA as opposed to 654 for Xander (WAR is of course, a counting stat).
I like Xander. But I want to see his D stats look like that for another year. I want to see some more power to offset his inevitable decline in BABIP. I'm optimistic about the latter (he's still young), less certain about the former.
What do you mean by "...we should be happy with 4.6, but not surprised by the 6-8 years in his near future while still cost controlled"? This would be an even swap of controlled years, and Sale would cost an extra $20million or so more.I love dominant left handed starters, and I probably overvalue them slightly in my mind. I love Chris Sale and thanks to MLB.tv I tune into his starts as often as Kershaw and Price and Hamels. I was one of the people very much in favor of giving up a lot for Hamels.
But I think people outside of Boston don't realize how special XB is.
His 4.6 WAR as a 22 year old shortstop is pretty rocking. Hanley got a 4.9 as a 22 year old shortstop. Manny wasn't a shortstop, but didn't get to 4.6 until his age 25 season. Miggy was slightly ahead at 5.6. Jeter was 3.3. Nomar was tearing up AAA and sipping a cup of coffee. Chipper was taking the year off before a 2.7 as a 23 year old. Yount was still in the infield at 5.0.
The guys I found who outclass him are ARod, Ripken, Tulo.
As someone who was a patient believer in XB during his rough 2014, I think he is a legitimate star, and we should be happy with 4.6, but not surprised by the 6-8 years in his near future while still cost controlled.
So as much as I love Sale, I spend the dollars on Price instead, and don't think I would give XB straight up based on what I expect to unfold in the next four years. Throw in 6.0 WAR Betts who exceeded my wildest expectations, and I think it can't realistically get any more than a chuckle.
Just because that's always been the worry with him, and the relative unreliability of defensive stats from a single season.Curious why you think his defensive abilities will regress? To my eye the improvement was in vastly improved athleticism and a corresponding confidence. Unless he bulks up one would not expect a 22 year old to lose those enhanced skills.
Well - my estimation - and most folks hereabouts - of his improvement had little to do with any defensive stats he accumulated. Simply watching him over the course of the season revealed X as completely different - and vastly improved- defensive player. But the point about bulking up stands I suppose. But he's only 22. One would think that shouldn't start for a few years at least.Just because that's always been the worry with him, and the relative unreliability of defensive stats from a single season.
LOL, all a matter of perspective I guess.Now, when you say Sox, you mean the good ones right?
Two great examples. I was doing some cherry picking trying to be as inclusive as I could be, but certainly missed some (and left out some that I thought weren't relevant). But Andrus is a fascinating example. Lesser bat, greater glove would seem less likely to mature as well, but he has fallen off (while still young enough to rebound). Wil Cordero is also a great cautionary tale with his outlier season at 22 and all downhill from there.Did you look for guys who were similar as a 22 year old but flamed out? Elvis Andrus had a WAR of 4.2. Wil Cordero was 3.0, but that was over only 467 PA as opposed to 654 for Xander (WAR is of course, a counting stat).
I like Xander. But I want to see his D stats look like that for another year. I want to see some more power to offset his inevitable decline in BABIP. I'm optimistic about the latter (he's still young), less certain about the former.
I didn't phrase that well. What I mean is if he remains the 4 win player he was this year across his cost controlled years that itself would be amazing and likely worth more than Sale while both under contract, in addition to costing less and having additional controlled years. Then if you add in the XB upside that I think will see some 6 to 8 win seasons as he nears his prime, it won't even be close. I remain very bullish on Xander, and other than one his one rough season of adjustment, has shown a lot of reason for high expectations.What do you mean by "...we should be happy with 4.6, but not surprised by the 6-8 years in his near future while still cost controlled"? This would be an even swap of controlled years, and Sale would cost an extra $20million or so more.